Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, LPG [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most other commodities including various metals, agricultural products, and energy - related products [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but there is a low probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest - rate risk warning from the central bank restrains the upward movement [1]. - For most commodities, market sentiment is changeable, and it is necessary to pay attention to domestic and foreign policy changes. The end - of - year demand season and supply - side factors such as production, inventory, and mine quota approvals have a significant impact on prices [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral upward trend before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restrains upward movement [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term likely to be strong, but beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - **Copper**: Price is under pressure after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside due to the coming consumption season [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, back to fundamentals after macro events [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation may be strong, affected by Indonesian mine quotas and raw material prices, operate short - term and light - position for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] - **TV Silicon and Polysilicon**: Affected by supply resumption, production cut expectations, and market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1] - **Manganese Silicate and Silicon Iron**: Negative short - term fundamentals, supply recovery, potential demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Plate**: Supply surplus pressure persists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a sharp callback, the bottom is supported, and the short - term may oscillate, consider reducing long positions [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil may be long at low levels in the oscillation range; soybean oil is bullish in the long - term; rapeseed oil shows a de - stocking trend, recommend long and positive spreads between months [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, potential pressure after new cotton is launched [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Bottom - out rebound, limited upside due to supply surplus, consider shorting at high levels [1] - **Corn**: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing plants [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Weak market sentiment in the short - term, be cautious and watch for changes in premium and discount quotes [1] - **Paper Pulp and Logs**: Paper pulp shows an initial bottom range, no significant bullish drivers; logs have stable fundamentals, futures oscillate [1] - **Live Hogs**: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish as the demand may be falsified in the 14th Five - Year Plan period and supply is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU and BR)**: RU may be affected by typhoons and inventory reduction; BR is affected by raw - material supply and market sentiment [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, etc.**: PTA is bearish due to supply increase and price decline; ethylene glycol is affected by new device production and inventory; short - fiber is affected by device return and market sentiment [1] - **Pure Benzene, Styrene, and Urea**: Bearish for pure benzene and styrene due to supply increase; urea has limited upside and cost - side support [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to OPEC production increase, high domestic inventory, and Fed rate - cut [1] Others - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: May rebound from low levels as the price approaches the cost line and enters the contract - changing period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, individual product ratings are as follows: - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Ethanol, Pig [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Raw Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe Line [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - Financial**: The long - term outlook for stock indices is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday is low. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - **Precious Metals**: A weaker US dollar boosts gold and silver prices, and they may perform strongly in the short term [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: While the Fed's interest rate cut has put pressure on copper and aluminum prices, factors such as overseas easing cycles, improved domestic downstream demand, and positive short - term sentiment are expected to stabilize copper prices. The decline in aluminum prices is limited due to the approaching consumption peak season. Alumina's fundamentals are weak, but its price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increasing social inventories. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and policy changes. Tin may present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1]. - **Black Metals**: The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coil has returned to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and positive macro - drivers. Iron ore has upward potential in the far - month contracts. Coke and coking coal prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. The supply of steel products is still excessive, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil may be bought at the lower end of the oscillation range. Soybean oil is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter and is bullish in the long - term. Rapeseed oil is recommended for buying and calendar spread trading. Domestic cotton prices may oscillate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long - term with the new cotton harvest. Raw sugar prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply. Soybean meal may oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices have a slightly upward - moving center of gravity. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and ethylene glycol is bearish. Short - fiber and styrene may oscillate. PE, PVC, and LPG prices are under pressure, and the container shipping to Europe line may stop falling and stabilize [1]. 3. Summary by Product Category Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, suppressing the upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: A weaker US dollar boosts prices, expected to be strong in the short term [1] - **Silver**: Price rebounds driven by market sentiment, expected to be strong in the short term [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest rate cut puts pressure, but expected to stabilize due to overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Interest rate cut causes pressure, but limited downside in the consumption peak season [1] - **Alumina**: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside as price approaches cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Increasing social inventories put pressure on prices [1] - **Nickel**: May oscillate in the short term, focus on supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: May oscillate in the short term, recommend short - term trading and light positions for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: May present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is bullish due to supply and policy expectations [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drivers are unclear, macro - drivers are positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term oscillation adjustment, consider buying at the lower end of the range [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, long - term bullish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommended for buying and calendar spread trading due to supply shortage and peak season [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with new cotton harvest [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply [1] - **Soybean Meal**: May oscillate in the short term [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Price center of gravity moves slightly upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by typhoon and inventory changes [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to capital flow due to supply and spread changes [1] - **PTA**: Basis declines rapidly due to production recovery and other factors [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to new production and hedging pressure [1] - **Short Fiber**: Factory production recovers, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Styrene**: Supply increases, may oscillate with limited upside and cost support [1] - **PE**: May oscillate weakly as the market returns to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Upward momentum is restricted by production increase and high inventory [1] - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: May stop falling and stabilize as prices approach cost [1]

Group 1: Key Insights on Baijiu Industry - Demand for banquets has been released in July and August, with a focus on business hospitality and gift-giving ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][2] - External risk events have had a decreasing impact on baijiu consumption scenarios, but overall consumption sentiment remains lower compared to the same period last year, leading to an estimated 20% year-on-year decline in sales [2][3] - The baijiu sector is expected to stabilize and recover as consumer sentiment improves, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies and a gradual recovery in demand [2][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end baijiu brands with strong market positions, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which is benefiting from upward channel momentum [3] - Potential cyclical recovery candidates include national brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, along with innovative companies like Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3] Group 3: Insights on Other Alcoholic Beverages - Beer demand is recovering steadily, with companies diversifying into non-drinking channels and soft drinks, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4] - The yellow wine sector is expected to see improved competitive dynamics due to price increases among leading brands, with potential for marginal catalysts as the peak season approaches [4] Group 4: Insights on Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Snacks - The soft drink sector is experiencing growth in high-demand segments like energy drinks and sugar-free tea, while traditional categories face some pressure [5] - The snack industry is seeing an increase in store openings and revenue recovery, with specific products like nut gift boxes expected to see improved demand ahead of the holidays [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting highlighted significant divisions among members, indicating ongoing challenges for the Fed's independence and a prevailing expectation for future rate cuts, which supports a long-term upward trend for gold and copper prices [2][6][8]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.05% and silver by 1.6%, while SHFE gold and silver fell by 0.73% and 0.89% respectively [4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, leading to a slight pullback in precious metal prices as the market had already priced in the rate cut [8][26]. - Despite the cautious tone from Fed Chair Powell, the long-term drivers for gold remain strong due to a weak labor market, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the dollar's credibility [8][53]. Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a technical pullback, with COMEX copper down by 0.38% and SHFE copper down by 1.52% [4]. - The FOMC meeting led to a retreat in copper prices as traders took profits, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the meeting [6][10]. - Despite being in a typical consumption peak season, copper demand has shown weakness, and while price declines may stimulate some buying, expectations for a robust demand recovery are tempered [12][53]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased, surpassing 310,000 tons, indicating potential supply pressures despite a forecasted rise in imports [12][13]. - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index fell to -41.25 USD/ton, reflecting a cautious market with subdued trading activity [15]. Market Dynamics - The overall market sentiment for both precious metals and copper is influenced by the Fed's policy direction, with ongoing discussions about future rate cuts being a key factor in price movements [6][8][10]. - The interplay between supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the copper market, suggests that while prices may stabilize, significant upward movement is limited due to anticipated increases in imports and existing supply pressures [12][13].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Industries - **Bullish**: Crude oil, Fuel oil, Coke [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most other industries including Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Non-ferrous metals, Soda ash, Coking coal, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Pure benzene and styrene, Urea, PP, PVC, STE HOX, LPG, Container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro-financial**: The long-term view for stock index futures is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and investors are advised to control their positions; the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Non-ferrous metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector has oscillated and corrected. Each metal has different supply and demand fundamentals, resulting in varying price trends, with most having limited downward or upward space [1] - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different supply and demand situations, such as palm oil having a chance to break through the oscillation range and rise, soybean oil having a long-term bullish outlook, and sugar and corn prices oscillating [1] - **Energy and chemicals**: The supply and demand of energy and chemical products are complex. Crude oil and fuel oil are bullish due to factors such as inventory decline and production increase plans, while most other products oscillate due to various supply and demand and cost factors [1] 3. Summary by Industry **Macro-financial** - **Stock index futures**: Long-term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses upward space [1] **Non-ferrous metals** - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with limited adjustment intensity [1] - **Silver**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, some long positions left the market, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are under pressure, but with the start of the easing cycle and improving downstream demand, the callback space is limited [1] - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices are under pressure, but with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the downward space is limited [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, the spot price is under pressure, but it is approaching the cost line, so the downward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices are oscillating and weakening in the short term [1] - **Nickel**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Nickel prices are oscillating in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the non-ferrous sector oscillated and corrected. Stainless steel futures are oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills [1] **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: Affected by floods in Malaysia's Sabah state, the supply is disrupted, and the price is expected to break through the oscillation range and rise [1] - **Soybean oil**: The de-stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US negotiations [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Canada may adjust imports, and a positive spread strategy for rapeseed oil 11=1 is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and the short-term supply may be tight. The acquisition game during the new cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New sugar is on the market, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly with limited downward space in the short term [1] - **Corn**: The new season's corn has not been fully listed, and the price is oscillating at a low level in the short term. C01 is expected to remain weak later [1] - **Soybean meal**: Affected by Sino-US negotiations and pig anti-involution policies, the price is under pressure. It is oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and Brazilian planting weather [1] **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil**: Bullish due to factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed's interest rate cut [1] - **Fuel oil**: Bullish for the same reasons as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five-Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **BR rubber**: The supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the downstream trading is weakening. The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory de-stocking and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production is increasing, the basis is declining rapidly, and the polyester operating rate has recovered [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis is strengthening, but the upcoming production of Yulong Petrochemical's device and the increase in hedging positions after the price rise bring pressure [1] - **Short fiber**: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened with the price decline [1] - **Pure benzene and styrene**: Supply is increasing after maintenance, and domestic import pressure is increasing [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti-involution and cost [1] - **PP**: Oscillating weakly due to factors such as limited maintenance support, rigid demand for orders, and return to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near-month warehouse receipts, so the price is oscillating weakly [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and bearish fundamentals suppress the upward momentum, but there are factors such as international demand and domestic device profit changes [1] **Others** - **Container shipping on the European route**: In September, the supply exceeded the same period, and the freight rate is expected to decline [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].

Group 1 - The asphalt market has entered the consumption peak season, traditionally from August to October, but this year it was delayed to September due to widespread rainfall across the country [1] - Despite being in the consumption peak season, the market is characterized by "active trading but weak prices," with asphalt prices not rising due to inventory depletion [1] - As of September 15, the low-price negotiation range for asphalt was 3520 to 3650 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, while the high-price negotiation range saw a small decline [1] Group 2 - The futures market is experiencing a decline in bullish sentiment due to weak fundamentals, leading to pressure on asphalt prices [2] - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have both lowered global oil demand forecasts for the next two years, which weakens cost support for asphalt futures [2] - Despite the current weak market conditions, geopolitical risks and global trade tensions could lead to sudden increases in oil prices, potentially driving asphalt prices up [2]