Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Palm Oil (medium to long term), Other Oils (fourth quarter) [1] - **Bearish**: Anti -内卷 products, Black metals, Coke, Coking coal, Benzene ethylene [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, Silver, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial silicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Shanghai rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Big - three products, PE, PVC, LPG [1] Core Views - Short - term stock index futures discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, and the price may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices for copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals, but factors such as inventory accumulation may put pressure on some metal prices [1] - For agricultural products, although short - term factors may cause price fluctuations, the long - term bullish logic for some oils remains unchanged [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as production resumption, production increase plans, and changes in supply and demand affect product prices, with some products facing downward pressure and others showing short - term adjustment risks [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Gold**: The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support, and it may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - **Copper**: U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed rate - cut expectations and the approaching consumption peak season are favorable, but high inventory may put pressure on prices [1] - **Alumina**: Output and inventory are increasing, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment improvement supports the non - ferrous sector, but continuous inventory accumulation pressures zinc prices, with a narrow rebound [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term supply concerns and approaching stainless - steel peak season may lead to a short - term strong - side shock, but long - term primary nickel surplus pressure remains [1] - **Stainless steel**: Raw material price increases and inventory reduction, with short - term strong - side shock operation [1] - **Tin**: With improved macro sentiment and expected demand improvement in the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in shock [1] Black metals - **Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and warm macro drivers, showing a sideways trend [1] - **Anti -内卷 products**: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Coke, Coking coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, with supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: MPOB report shows slight inventory accumulation, with short - term callback risk and long - term bullish logic [1] - **Other oils**: USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the fourth - quarter bullish logic remains unchanged [1] - **Cotton**: New - crop cotton has a high - yield expectation, with short - term supply tightness and acquisition game as the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New - sugar pre - sale price is lower, with limited short - term downward space and expected sideways - weak trend [1] - **Soybeans**: 9 - month USDA report is bearish, but the U.S. market is strong, with limited downward space for the domestic market and short - term sideways movement [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist, with a loose fundamental situation [1] - **Shanghai rubber**: Raw material cost support is strong, but inventory reduction is slow and short - term market sentiment is weak [1] - **BR rubber**: Attention should be paid to inventory reduction progress and autumn device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production recovers, the basis declines rapidly, and downstream polyester starts to operate at a high load [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis strengthens, but new device production and increased hedging pressure the market [1] - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Supply increases significantly, and domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Big - three products**: Limited upward space due to weak domestic demand, with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PVC**: Sideways - weak trend due to factors such as limited maintenance support and supply pressure [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and other factors suppress upward movement [1]

Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-12 铝期货方面：2025-09-11日沪铝主力合约开于20780元/吨，收于20915元/吨，较上一交易日变化130元/吨，最 高价达20920元/吨，最低价达到20750元/吨。全天交易日成交106885手，全天交易日持仓204582手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.6吨，仓单库存65734 吨，较上一交易日变化797吨，LME铝库存485275吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-11SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3025元/吨，山东价格录得3005元/吨，河南价格录得 3065元/吨，广西价格录得3215元/吨，贵州价格录得3230元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得338美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-09-11氧化铝主力合约开于2923元/吨，收于2945元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化23元/ 吨，变化幅度0.79%，最高价达到2962元/吨，最低价为2923元/吨。全天交易日成交249216手，全天交易日持 仓273311手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-09-11保太 ...

农产品早报 2025-09-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 【重要资讯】 周四美豆小幅上涨，月报前调整仓位。国内豆粕盘面震荡，受国内高库存压力抑制。周四国内豆粕成交 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 回落，成交量一般，提货处于高位，华东现货小幅下跌 10 元/吨，基差 01-110 持平。上周下游库存天数 下降 0.08 天至 8.8 天，油厂大豆库存大幅累库至五年同期最高，豆粕小幅累库。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周 国内压榨大豆 230 万吨，本周预计压榨 226 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨量偏少，大豆优良率可能维持下滑趋势，关注周五夜间 USDA 报告美豆单产表现， 目前国外主要机构预计单产小幅下调。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反弹。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - **Tin**: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - **Corn**: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - **Soybean Meal**: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - **Paper Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - **Logs**: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - **PE**: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - **PVC**: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - **Alumina**: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping Routes**: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-11 市场分析 2025-09-10日沪镍主力合约2510开于120500元/吨，收于120850元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.07%，当日成交量 为75006（-25275）手，持仓量为81612（775）手。 期货方面：今日沪镍2510合约呈现窄幅震荡格局，全天围绕120150-120940元/吨区间波动，收盘价120850元/吨， 较前一交易日下跌90元。主力持仓数据显示，沪镍2510合约主力净空持仓减少，技术面呈现 "20 日均线压制但成 本线支撑" 的格局。成交量较前一交易日明显缩量，显示市场观望情绪浓厚。 镍矿方面：市场维持观望态势，海运费保持涨势，镍矿价格坚挺。菲律宾方面矿山报价坚挺，受降雨影响，装船 出货略有迟缓。下游镍铁价格看涨情绪较浓，国内铁厂利润保持亏损，镍矿采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，供应维持 宽松，9月(二期)内贸基准价预计上涨0.2-0.3美元，内贸升水方面，9月(一期)升水维持+24不变，升水区间为+23-24。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格122700元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌500元/吨。价格震荡运行，现货交投整 体一般，各品牌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver. For copper, recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading; for aluminum, recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; for nickel, recommended to hold or short on rallies; for tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins. Most are expected to trade in a range, with PVC, caustic soda, and styrene having specific price ranges to watch; rubber is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term; for soda ash, recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [1][20][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, expected to be strongly bullish; bearish on red dates, expected to be weakly bearish [1][34][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn and soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, expected to be strongly bullish in the short term but currently experiencing a high-level correction [1][38][40][46] Core Views - The A-share market is in a confidence restoration phase after adjustment, and the mid-term upward drive remains unchanged. The bond market is under pressure and lacks rebound momentum [5] - The black building materials market is in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal rising slowly and the price of rebar expected to fall first and then rise in September [7] - The non-ferrous metals market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the price of copper expected to fluctuate at a high level and the price of aluminum expected to be supported by supply and demand [10][11] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy, with the price of PVC expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price of soda ash recommended for arbitrage [20][33] - The cotton textile industry chain market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of cotton expected to be strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of live pigs expected to be under pressure in the long term but with short-term rebound potential [39] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market oscillated and pulled up on Wednesday, with the trading volume shrinking slightly, indicating that the market is gradually entering the confidence restoration phase after adjustment. In the medium term, the upward drive of the market remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market was under pressure on Wednesday, with the yield curve steepening significantly. The negative factors included tight capital, supply pressure, and the stock-bond seesaw effect. If the market environment does not change, it will take time for the market to clear [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The price increase of pithead coal slowed down, and the market was in a stalemate. It is recommended to wait for a driving force [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional peak season in September. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7] - **Glass**: The supply and demand of glass improved, and the fundamentals were better than in July and August. It is recommended to take partial profits on the 01 long position and buy on dips [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper was affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term upward momentum insufficient and the overall high-level oscillation expected. It is recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum was supported by supply and demand, with the demand entering the peak season and the inventory approaching the inflection point. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel was affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term price affected by the macro environment and the long-term supply surplus continuing. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [17] - **Silver and Gold**: The price of silver and gold was supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [16][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC were still weak, but the valuation was low, and it was recommended to pay attention to policy and cost disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 4700 - 5000 [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda was affected by factors such as warehouse receipts, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene was affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 6900 - 7200 [25] - **Rubber**: The price of rubber was affected by factors such as cost, inventory, and demand. It is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to watch the support level of 15600 [25][26] - **Urea**: The supply of urea decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol was stable, and the demand was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 2350 - 2450 for the 01 contract [28] - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins improved, but the supply pressure of PP was large. It is expected that the LL主力合约 will oscillate in a range, and the PP will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to watch the range of 7200 - 7500 for the LL主力合约 and 6900 - 7200 for the PP [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash was abundant, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand of cotton improved, but the increase in new cotton production was expected to put pressure on the price. It is recommended to do a good job in hedging [34] - **PTA**: The inventory of PTA decreased recently, but the supply increased in the far month, and the oil price weakened. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 4600 - 4950 [35][36] - **Apples**: The price of early-ripening apples was firm, and it is expected to remain strongly bullish [36] - **Red Dates**: The consumption of red dates was weak, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs increased in September, and the price was under pressure in the long term. However, there was short-term rebound potential due to policy regulation and holiday demand. It is recommended to take rolling stop-profit on the 11 and 01 short positions and add short positions on rebounds [39] - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs was boosted by school openings and Mid-Autumn Festival preparations, and the supply pressure was relieved to some extent. However, the supply was still sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts and watch for range trading [40] - **Corn**: The new corn was about to be listed, and the old corn inventory was relatively tight. It is recommended to pay attention to the listing time of the new corn and watch the 11 contract for range trading [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as the US soybean supply and demand, domestic inventory, and cost. It is recommended to watch the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the USDA supply and demand report [46] - **Oils**: The price of oils was in a high-level correction, with the short-term support levels of 8200, 9200, and 9700 for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of the 11 - 01 contracts of rapeseed oil [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Aluminum, Cotton (short - term), MO1, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Glass, Sugar, Corn (C01), Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea (upside limited), Some chemical products (PVC, etc. with weak - side trend) [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Index Futures (short - term adjustment for long - position opportunity), Treasury Bonds (suppressed in the short - term), Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp (11 - 1 positive spread), Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Short - Fiber, Some chemical products (like Melamine, etc.) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term adjustment of index futures due to the widening of the discount and liquidity drivers may bring opportunities for long - position layout; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1]. - Gold continues to rise due to increased interest - rate cut expectations and the People's Bank of China's continuous ten - month increase in holdings, with an expected long - term upward trend [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - economy, supply and demand, and production capacity. For example, copper has limited downside due to expected interest - rate cuts, while aluminum is expected to be strong as the consumption peak approaches [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors like production, inventories, and market expectations. For instance, new cotton has a tight short - term supply, while sugar is expected to be weak with limited downside [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by production, inventory, and macro - policies. For example, PTA production has recovered, and ethylene glycol is under pressure from new device production [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - Index Futures: Short - term adjustment may offer long - position opportunities due to the widening of the discount and liquidity drivers [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central - bank warnings suppress the upside [1] - Gold: Expected to continue rising, with a long - term upward trend due to interest - rate cut expectations and central - bank purchases [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Pressured by weak US non - farm data, but limited downside due to expected interest - rate cuts [1] - Aluminum: Expected to be strong as the consumption peak approaches and interest - rate cut expectations rise [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals due to increased production and inventory, but long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts [1] - Zinc: Under pressure from inventory accumulation, but limited downside due to LME inventory reduction and macro - support [1] - Nickel: Follows macro - fluctuations in the short - term, with long - term pressure from primary - nickel oversupply [1] - Stainless Steel: Short - term weak - side oscillation, with attention to steel - mill production [1] - Tin: Supported by the current situation, with low - long opportunities [1] - Industrial Silicon: Supply recovery and weak demand in the short - term, with long - term production - capacity reduction expectations [1] - Polysilicon: Limited production expansion and low terminal demand [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Expected to recover production, with limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Expected small inventory increase in the MPOB report, with limited negative impact and callback - long opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Attention to the USDA report, with long - term bullish logic and callback - long opportunities [1] - Cotton: Tight short - term supply, with acquisition competition as a focus [1] - Sugar: Expected weak - side oscillation with limited downside [1] - Corn: Expected to be abundant, with a recommendation to short C01 at high prices [1] - MO1: In an upward channel, with a recommendation to long at low prices [1] - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread due to price decline and reduced warehouse receipts [1] - Logs: Weak - side oscillation with unchanged fundamentals and falling prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and interest - rate cut expectations [1] - Fuel Oil: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - PTA: Production recovery and increased downstream开工率 [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Under pressure from new device production and increased hedging [1] - Short - Fiber: Factory device recovery and weakened delivery willingness [1] - Styrene: Supply increase and import pressure, with a bearish outlook [1] - Urea: Limited upside due to weak domestic demand, but supported by anti - involution and cost [1] - Melamine: Weak - side oscillation due to macro - factors and limited demand [1] - PVC: Oscillation with reduced maintenance and increased supply pressure [1] - Alumina Ore: Expected price rebound due to approaching peak season and low inventory [1] - PG: Limited upside due to a bearish fundamental despite rising international oil prices [1] - Container Shipping: Declining freight rates due to high supply and expected price convergence [1]