Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the chemical and coal industries, discussing the impact of government policies and market dynamics on various sectors within these industries [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is conducting assessments of outdated production capacity, particularly in Hunan, where the lifespan has been reduced to 20 years. This could lead to significant elimination of outdated capacity in the chemical sector, enhancing market confidence in future profit reversals [1][2]. - In the soda ash industry, natural soda ash is expected to increase its market share to 60% due to environmental advantages, aiding in price recovery. Companies to watch include Yuanxing Energy and Zhongyan Chemical [1][2]. - The urea industry has an operating rate exceeding 80%, with about 30% of old facilities over 20 years old. The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to benefit supply-demand balance, with a focus on companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Hubei Yihua [1][2]. - Glyphosate and glufosinate prices are showing signs of bottoming out, driven by low overseas inventory and seasonal demand peaks. Domestic and international companies are voluntarily halting production, which may lead to price increases. Key companies include Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Lier Chemical [1][3]. - The organic silicon sector is experiencing strong demand, with DMC apparent demand growth exceeding 20% year-on-year from January to May. The industry operating rate is around 70%, and if this growth continues, rates may exceed 80% in the second half of the year. Companies to monitor include Xin'an Chemical and Xingfa Group [1][3]. Coal Industry - The coal industry is responding to overproduction issues through regulatory measures. A recent document from the Energy Bureau indicates that production exceeding approved capacities will be scrutinized, marking the beginning of a "de-involution" phase aimed at reducing excessive competition and improving resource utilization [4][5]. - The coal market has seen a relatively loose supply-demand balance this year, with prices declining until a slight rebound in late June due to seasonal demand. The current price range of 600-650 RMB/ton is seen as a price floor, with expectations that further declines are unlikely [5][7][8]. - The policies implemented are primarily focused on managing production rather than capacity, similar to past measures taken to address severe oversupply issues. The current market is not in a state of excess, with overproduction mainly observed in Xinjiang [6]. Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is experiencing a "de-involution" phenomenon, characterized by overcapacity leading to intensified price competition. Companies are collaborating to limit production and stabilize prices, particularly in the cement and glass industries [9][10]. - The future focus for the cement industry includes strict enforcement of production limits and carbon emission management, with expectations for stricter policies starting in 2026 [12]. Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is facing significant internal competition, with production costs varying widely. Prices have dropped from a peak of 600,000 RMB/ton to a low of 60,000 RMB/ton, leading to many hard rock lithium mines operating at a loss. The government aims to increase self-sufficiency in strategic resources, which may lead to supply-side adjustments [15][16]. - Companies to watch in the current market environment include Zhongkuang Resources, which is expected to stabilize its business valuation as prices recover. Other companies with lighter historical burdens, like Shenxinfu, are also worth monitoring [17]. Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the chemical and coal industries is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for price recovery and improved profitability as outdated capacities are phased out and regulatory measures take effect [1][2][4][8]. - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand rebound, presenting potential investment opportunities [14].

对光伏温度的直观感受，有时往往比数据来得更直观和真实。 7月23日傍晚，在从上海虹桥飞往山西大同的航班上，据赶碳号观察，除了少量暑期出游的人，有相当 多的人，是光伏行业半年会的参会人员。 坐在笔者边上和前排的，就是一家上海本地的专注二级市场的私募。这位年轻人不停地与过道上经过的 熟人打着招呼。细问才知道，他们团队以前主要关注消费，比如生猪什么的，并非电新行业。 现在主 要是"光伏最近挺火，想过来学习学习"，看看有什么投资机会。和他抱有同样想法的人，应该不在少 数。无论生猪还是光伏，都是强周期行业。 春江水暖，私募先知，券商先知。 此次半年会，和温州、宜宾不同，赶碳号没有打听到外界之前所盛传的反内卷专题闭门会。唯一的行业 协会组织的闭门会，似乎就是光储应用专业委员会成立大会。 毕竟，一方面反内卷已经上升到国家层面、政府层面，企业家们最近经常被召集进京开会，见面的机会 也多；另一方面，反内卷先反着，但业务也同样不能停，日子还要过，大家都在拼命地跑市场，冲销 售，一刻不停歇。 这段前言写得有点啰嗦，但却是当下真实的市场情绪。说一千道一万，雷声再大，只单方面解决供给侧 的问题恐怕仍然不行，需求如何解决呢？三四十万吨的 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals from the Commodity Research Institute, dated July 23, 2025 [2] - It covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate - It provides market reviews, important information, trading strategies, and price and related data for each metal Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2509 contract closed at 79,590 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 73 lots to 512,000 lots [2] - In the spot market, copper prices in the East China market were above 79,500 yuan/ton, suppressing downstream purchasing sentiment. In the South China market, inventory decreased but demand was low. In the North China market, demand expectations were not optimistic [2] Alumina - The Alumina 2509 contract fell 97 yuan to 3,355 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 19,393 lots to 388,300 lots [9] - Spot prices in various regions increased, with the Aladdin Alumina North Spot Composite up 40 yuan to 3,230 yuan [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 75 yuan/ton to 20,815 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 3,190 lots to 691,200 lots [17] - Spot prices in different regions decreased, and coal prices increased [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 60 yuan to 20,155 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 520 lots to 11,008 lots [26] - Spot prices in various regions remained flat [26] Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2509 rose 0.5% to 22,975 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 4,437 lots to 241,600 lots [33] - In the spot market, trading was light and the spot premium was weak [33] Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2509 fell 0.44% to 16,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 601 lots to 102,100 lots [40] - In the spot market, the price of regenerated refined lead was stable, and the willingness of holders to sell and downstream enterprises to buy was low [40] Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2509, fell 70 to 123,370 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 2,860 lots [46] - The premiums of Jinchuan Nickel, Russian Nickel, and Electrowon Nickel changed slightly [46] Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel, SS2509, rose 10 to 12,900 yuan/ton, with the index positions increasing by 7,690 lots [53] - Spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel were reported [53] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% to 9,525 yuan/ton after a sharp rise and fall [60] - Spot prices of industrial silicon increased significantly [61] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose 5.5% to 50,080 yuan/ton after a sharp correction [66] - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon increased [66] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2509, fell 2,940 to 69,380 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 27,082 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 665 to 10,754 tons [69] - Spot prices of electric carbon and industrial carbon increased [71] Group 3: Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non-ferrous metals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3][4][10][22][67] - In the second quarter of 2025, copper production increased, and several mining companies' copper production also grew [3][4] - Kazakhstan plans to double its copper production by 2030 [4] - Canada's Solaris Resources hopes its Warintza project will start production in 2030 [4] - Germany announced an investment plan of over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [4] - The 232 tariff on copper will take effect on August 1, with a 50% tariff rate [7] - Some trade-related agreements and negotiations are in progress, such as the US-Philippines trade agreement and the US-Thailand trade negotiation [19][22][47] Group 4: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, copper prices are expected to be strong [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [12] Alumina - Unilateral: Short-term wide-range volatile [15] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [15] - Options: Wait and see [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: Short-term high-level volatile [24] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24] - Options: Wait and see [24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: Volatile at a high level following aluminum prices [30] - Arbitrage: Consider cash-and-carry arbitrage when the cash-futures spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [31] - Options: Wait and see [31] Zinc - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, short-term long positions can be considered [39] Lead - Unilateral: At a relatively low price, long positions can be lightly tried under the cost support of secondary lead [43] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [44] - Options: Wait and see [44] Nickel - Unilateral: Short-term follow the macro atmosphere [49] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [50] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [51] Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Volatile and bullish [57] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [58] Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Close long positions [63] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts, and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts [65] - Options: Buy protective put options [63] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts [68] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for far-month contracts [68] - Options: None [68] Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Short-term follow the trend [74] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [76] Group 5: Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for each metal, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, ratios, import and export profits, and inventory data [78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87] - It also includes various charts showing the trends of prices, spreads, and inventories over time [90][92][97][99][103][111][113][116][121][127][129][134][139][142][145][152][154][159][165][172][174][181][183][189][191]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC: The supply - demand situation has weakened, with continuous inventory accumulation and declining downstream product start - up rates. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and domestic demand is affected by the real estate market. However, due to the influence of eliminating backward production capacity and short - term strong macro - policy and sentiment, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong before policy implementation. There is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [8][10]. - Caustic soda: The futures price has strengthened due to the elimination of backward production capacity. Fundamentally, the alumina industry is stable, but the caustic soda inventory has increased, non - aluminum demand is weak, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Before policy implementation, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and there is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Related Data 3.1.1 PVC - related Data - Futures prices: V2605 decreased by 97 yuan to 5466 yuan, a decline of 1.74%; V2509 decreased by 109 yuan to 5151 yuan, a decline of 2.07%; V2601 decreased by 105 yuan to 5269 yuan, a decline of 1.95% [4]. - Main contract positions: 865,000 lots, unchanged from the previous day, a decline of 0.02% [4]. - Warehouse receipts: 55,000 lots, unchanged [4]. - Basis and spread: V 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan to - 118 yuan, a change of 3.51%; V1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 197 yuan, a change of 4.23% [4]. - Spot prices: East China SG - 5 decreased by 40 yuan to 4960 yuan, a decline of 0.80%; South China SG - 5 increased by 10 yuan to 5010 yuan, an increase of 0.20% [4]. - Spot spreads: The South China - East China SG5 spread increased by 50 yuan to 50 yuan; the East China - North China SG5 spread decreased by 40 yuan to 240 yuan [4]. - Cost and profit: Wuhai calcium carbide remained at 2250 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide decreased by 50 yuan to 2730 yuan; Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide method profit increased by 88 yuan to - 293 yuan [4]. 3.1.2 Caustic Soda - related Data - Futures prices: SH508 decreased by 4 yuan to 2587 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; SH509 decreased by 14 yuan to 2644 yuan, a decline of 0.53%; SH601 decreased by 44 yuan to 2655 yuan, a decline of 1.63% [4]. - Main contract positions: 115,600 lots, a decrease of 14,100 lots from the previous day, a decline of 10.91% [4]. - Warehouse receipts: 0 lots, unchanged [4]. - Basis and spread: SH 8 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan to - 57 yuan, a change of - 14.93%; SH9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to - 11 yuan, a change of - 73.17% [4]. - Spot prices: Shandong 32% decreased by 10 yuan to 810 yuan, a decline of 1.22%; Xinjiang flake caustic soda increased by 150 yuan to 3100 yuan, an increase of 5.08% [4]. - Spot spreads: The Shandong 50% - 32% spread increased by 31 yuan to 159 yuan, an increase of 24.51%; the Guangdong flake caustic soda - Guangdong 50% spread increased by 3170 yuan to 3750 yuan, an increase of 546.55% [4]. - Cost and profit: Shandong raw salt price remained at 210 yuan; Shandong caustic soda profit decreased by 31 yuan to 643 yuan; 50% caustic soda export profit decreased by 2 yuan to - 61 yuan [4]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - PVC: Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 - 5080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; Guangzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5010 - 5080 yuan/ton, a change of + 10/ - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Caustic soda: In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda decreased by 15 yuan/ton on average; the mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda remained stable [6]. 3.2.2 Related News On July 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine from Shandong Xinf Fa increased by 100 yuan, with an ex - factory price of - 400 yuan [7]. 3.2.3 Logic Analysis - PVC: The supply - demand situation has weakened, with inventory accumulation and low downstream start - up rates. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and domestic demand is affected by real estate. The futures price has risen due to the elimination of backward production capacity. Before policy implementation, it is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and there is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [8]. - Caustic soda: The futures price has strengthened due to the elimination of backward production capacity. The alumina industry is stable, but the caustic soda inventory has increased, non - aluminum demand is weak, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. There is a need to focus on policy implementation [9]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For both caustic soda and PVC, before policy implementation, they are expected to be oscillatingly strong. There is a risk of price decline if policy support is weak or sentiment cools down [10]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11]. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11]. 3.3 Third Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis trends, spreads, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, raw material prices, and profit trends of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, WIND, Zhuochuang, and Longzhong [14][16][19][20][24][25][27][29][30][31][33][34][36][40][41][42][43].

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| | | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16850 | -50 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2015 | 3.5 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -30 | 5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 101465 | 2568 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2632 | -1396 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 60059 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 62335 | 7186 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 264925 | -3475 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16725 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16910 | -130 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -125 | 50 LME铅升贴水( ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is affected by policies to eliminate backward production capacity. The market sentiment is positive, and commodity prices are rising, driving up the prices of propylene and polyolefins [3]. - Propylene is expected to shift from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation after capacity reduction, but supply pressure will increase as refinery operations recover, while downstream demand is also gradually recovering [3]. - For polyolefins, policies have a certain boosting effect on the market. Although production maintenance eases some supply - demand pressure, upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains sluggish, with an expected increase in supply and inventory in the future [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the propylene futures main contract, the basis between East China and the main contract, the basis between North China and the main contract, and the basis between Northwest China and the main contract, as well as the market prices in East China and Shandong [10][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers propylene processing fees, capacity utilization rates, production margins from different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking), and the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins and the operating rate of crude oil refineries [15][19][26]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Involves price differences between South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and China, and propylene import profits [31][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Consists of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [61]. 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Comprises the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between East China LL and the main contract, and between East China PP and the main contract [65][69]. 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based) and PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), PE and PP operating rates, weekly production, and maintenance losses [74][80][82]. 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Includes price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and price differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [87][94][95]. 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Involves LL and PP import and export profits, and price differences between different regions and China [101][113]. 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Includes the operating rates and production profits of PE downstream (agricultural film, packaging film, winding film) and PP downstream (plastic weaving, BOPP film, injection molding) [124][125][131]. 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Consists of inventory in oil - based and coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports for both PE and PP [133][138][146]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on propylene in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for PL01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea futures (UR) fluctuated upwards and closed at 1817 on the previous trading day, and the upcoming industrial growth - stabilization plan may boost the market, the supply pressure of urea remains high with a daily output close to 200,000 tons and an enterprise inventory of about 750,000 tons. While the top - dressing demand in July supports the price, the urea price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not pick up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and the Shandong price at 1840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - grained)**: On July 22, the prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged at 1720, 1800, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Henan was 1850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), and the price in Jiangsu was 1840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The Shandong spot - UR basis was 25 yuan/ton on July 22, down 18 yuan from July 21, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Not mentioned in the report Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries, aiming to reduce excess capacity and stimulate domestic demand, which is expected to improve corporate profits and commodity prices [1][2] - The current economic recovery in China is supported by policy measures such as "anti-involution," expansion of domestic demand, and urban renewal, which are being actively implemented across key industries [1][2] - The article highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been declining for 33 consecutive months, indicating a need for structural adjustments in the industrial sector to reverse this trend [1] Group 2 - The previous round of supply-side capacity reduction occurred around 2016, primarily affecting upstream industrial sectors, while the current "anti-involution" initiative has a broader scope, impacting traditional consumer goods, machinery, and emerging industries [2] - The challenge lies in balancing long-term goals with short-term tasks in the "anti-involution" process, as rapid capacity reduction could harm short-term economic growth while failing to address the underlying issues could lead to more "zombie" companies [2][3] - To mitigate the impact of capacity reduction on employment, the article suggests promoting urban renewal and expanding the service sector to create more job opportunities [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the need for strict control over new capacity while phasing out outdated capacity, as previous local government practices of indiscriminately attracting investment led to overcapacity [4] - Establishing a unified national market is crucial to reduce local government intervention in manufacturing investments, which can help avoid redundant investments and local protectionism [4] - The article stresses the importance of creating a conducive environment for market mergers and acquisitions, as well as improving bankruptcy systems to facilitate the exit of underperforming enterprises [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On July 22, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5874, up 3.74%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5380. With strong macro - expectations due to the upcoming ten key industries' stable growth work plans, low - level operation of production, decreased cost of semi - coke in Ningxia, weak overall steel demand expectation, and negative production profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. - On July 22, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6012, up 1.76%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700, up 20 yuan/ton. Affected by the plan to adjust the structure, optimize supply and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, coal prices rose significantly. With the factory's operating rate rising for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, neutral - to - high inventory, a decrease of 4.20 million tons in the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end, high downstream hot metal production, and negative spot profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 6012 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5874 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 592,505 lots, up 962 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 394,037 lots, up 1039 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon: - 71,449 lots, down 984 lots; net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy: - 44,311 lots, up 1578 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 72 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 78 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 78,495 sheets, down 259 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 22,150 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - Manganese silicon index average: 5610 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 494 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 332 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest China): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu): 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 428.50 million tons, down 4.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate: 40.53%, down 0.02%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate: 32.45%, up 1.25% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply: 182,840 tons, up 560 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply: 100,000 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon factory inventory: 216,300 tons, down 4500 tons; silicon ferroalloy factory inventory: 6.35 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills: 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; silicon ferroalloy inventory days in national steel mills: 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of five major steel types: 123,381 tons, down 1547 tons; silicon ferroalloy demand of five major steel types: 20,013.70 tons, down 153.60 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.48%, up 0.35%; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.92%, up 1.05% [2]. - Crude steel output: 83.184 million tons, down 3.361 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, coke enterprises initiated the second price increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 22 [2]. - From July 19 - 20, steel enterprises at the Tenth Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum reached a consensus on "strengthening self - discipline in production control" [2]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect a further decline in the second half of the year [2]. - Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations", which will take effect on September 15, aiming to increase rental housing supply and cultivate professional housing rental enterprises [2].