1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel market, with Trump raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, there is greater pressure on steel exports. The policy - driven positive factors have basically been priced in. The real - estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The peak of apparent demand has passed, and with the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation remains unchanged. Technically, prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - For the iron ore market, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further due to the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline is slowing down, and the high proportion of trade - mine inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. The futures price may break downward under the influence of falling steel prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Factors**: Trump's tariff increase, real - estate market conditions, demand seasonality, and limited impact of production - cut rumors. The market is changing from strong to weak reality, and prices are expected to continue falling [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded - steel and hot - rolled - coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded - steel futures main - contract closing price is 2,928 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from last week [1]. - **Production**: The national building - materials steel - mill threaded - steel production is 225.51 tons, down 2.58% from last week, while hot - rolled - coil production is 319.55 tons, up 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased. For instance, the threaded - steel social inventory is 394.59 tons, down 5.25% from last week [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The national building - materials trading volume (7 - day moving average) is 13.95 tons, down 30.08% from last week [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Factors**: Steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is rising seasonally, and port inventory decline is slowing. The futures price may break downward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of DCE iron - ore futures main contract is 695.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined [3]. - **Shipment**: The global iron - ore shipment in the week of May 27 - June 2, 2025, is 3,431.0 tons, up 242.3 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore is 13,866.58 tons, down 0.87% from last week. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,210.52 tons, down 2.65% [3]. - **Shipping and Exchange Rates**: BCI freight rates have increased, and the US dollar index has risen 0.55% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The methanol market shows a short - term low - level rebound. The spot market has mixed price trends, with some regions falling and others rising. The market trading atmosphere has improved due to macro - level benefits and futures rebounds, but downstream demand remains mainly for essential needs at lower prices. Port inventories have different trends, with overall port inventory rising last week [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,217 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Trading volume was 737,761 lots, an increase of 36,302 lots; open interest was 841,450 lots, an increase of 17,111 lots. The basis was 50, up 11, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 64, up 3 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shandong price remained unchanged at 2,120 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2008.89, down 14.42. The Taicang spot price was 2275, up 28, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1862.5, down 32.5. Six out of 20 monitored cities saw price drops ranging from 5 - 32.5 yuan/ton. The northwest methanol market continued to be weak, but market trading improved due to macro - level benefits and futures rebounds. However, downstream enterprises in major sales areas still mainly purchased based on essential needs at lower prices [3]. - Last week, methanol port inventory stopped falling and rebounded, with 24.56 million tons of visible unloading from foreign vessels. Jiangsu's inventory increased slightly due to increased shipments; Zhejiang's inventory increased due to more foreign vessel unloading. The South China port inventory decreased slightly. Guangdong's inventory decreased due to good consumption and increased social warehouse pick - up; Fujian's inventory also decreased due to limited imports and essential consumption [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The methanol trend intensity was 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive view within the [- 2, 2] range [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal inventory at northern ports has reached a historical high of approximately 31 million tons, primarily constituted by 14 large enterprises, accounting for 60% of the total inventory, while the remaining 40% is held by traders [1][3][22]. - Recent declines in coal prices are attributed to the selling actions of large groups and traders, driven by storage pressures and financial constraints [1][4]. Key Points Coal Inventory and Composition - The majority of the port inventory consists of Shanxi coal, making up about 60%, with the rest from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi [1][6]. - Major companies like Jieneng, Guoneng, and Zhongmei hold significant portions of the inventory, with Jieneng at 4.916 million tons, Guoneng at 3.427 million tons, and Zhongmei at 3.588 million tons [3][6]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coal prices are expected to stabilize around 600 RMB per ton by late May, with potential further declines in July and August, followed by a possible increase in September due to seasonal demand [2][11][14]. - The operational cost breakeven point for power plants is around 740 RMB per ton, which serves as a critical resistance level for price increases [18][22]. Supply and Demand Factors - The demand side has a more significant impact on recent price declines, with downstream regions experiencing price drops and low transaction volumes [2][4]. - The State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC) has mandated power plants to increase coal inventory to 215 million tons by June 10, aiming for a long-term contract fulfillment rate of over 90%, which may stabilize prices in the short term [1][8][10]. Storage and Self-Combustion Risks - There have been reports of coal self-combustion incidents, particularly with high moisture content coals, which poses a risk for traders holding large inventories [5][6]. - The storage duration for coal can lead to self-combustion within as little as 20 days under certain conditions, influencing traders' decisions to sell [5]. Market Structure and Future Outlook - The current high inventory levels at ports may lead to production cuts or shutdowns at coal mines, as companies face storage limitations [8][22]. - The market is expected to experience a slight upward trend in prices during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," driven by increased electricity demand and potential production cuts from large enterprises [15][16]. Import Market Dynamics - Domestic coal prices are currently under pressure from imported coal, particularly from Mongolia and Russia, with significant price differentials affecting trading decisions [19][23]. - The price of Mongolian coal is approximately 745 RMB per ton, which is competitive compared to domestic coal prices [20][23]. Additional Insights - The coal market is currently characterized by high inventory levels, price volatility, and regulatory pressures aimed at stabilizing supply and demand dynamics [1][22]. - The interplay between large enterprises and traders in managing inventory and pricing strategies will be crucial in navigating the upcoming market challenges [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in iron ore prices, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Iron ore spot prices closed at 835 CNY/ton, a 4% increase month-on-month, while the DCE iron ore index closed at 831 CNY/ton, up 3.5% [9]. - Daily average trading volume for iron ore options was 347,985 contracts, showing a month-on-month increase, while total open interest was 360,031 contracts, reflecting a decrease [10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in iron water production, but a significant recovery in profit per ton of steel [18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Review - Iron ore spot prices increased by 4% month-on-month, with the DCE iron ore index rising by 3.5% [9]. 1.2 Options Market Review - Daily average trading volume for I2505 series options rose to 102,964 contracts, with total open interest increasing to 315,120 contracts [13]. - The implied volatility for the main contract series options remained stable at 28% [14]. - The short-term historical volatility for iron ore was recorded at 24%, which is below the average level [16]. 1.3 Options Strategy Recommendation - The report recommends a strategy of buying put spreads, as the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong performance despite slight declines in production and inventory levels [18].