来源：@究竟视频微博 【今日股市1218丨指数分化震荡但个股活跃度高 能否继续积极做多？】今日提要【话题】沪指震荡收 红，能否继续上行？【话题】 "犒赏经济"成为消费新模式，能否持续活跃？【观点】 陈文：市场技术 指标趋于钝化，均线系统密集咬合。【观点】徐习瑶：科技方向分歧较大，存储板块有止跌的迹象。 【观点】 吕嵩杰：市场风格重回均衡，化工等低位品种轮动。今日盘面A股三大指数表现分化，截至收 盘，沪指涨0.16%，收报3876.37点；深证成指跌1.29%，收报13053.97点；创业板指跌2.17%，收报 3107.06点。如何看待创业板指的反复表现，短期会如何运行？三市成交额为16770亿，较昨日萎缩1575 亿。量能水平萎缩，短期是否有上攻动能？行业板块涨跌互现，医药商业、航天装备、煤炭、银行、油 气、零售板块领涨，消费电子、电池、光伏、锂矿板块跌幅居前。市场反复个股活跃，短期如何操作？ 个股方面，上涨下跌股票数量相差不多，超70只股票涨停，较昨日明显增加。"犒赏经济"作为新型消费 模式成为今天的市场焦点，三湘印象、浙江众成等十几只个股批量涨停，能否持续活跃？零售板块依然 强势，龙头百大集团六连板，南 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 铂、多晶硅、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱期货 将偏弱宽幅震荡 锡期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将偏强震荡：IF2603 阻力位 4539 和 4576 点，支撑位 4486 和 4461 点；IH2603 阻力位 3006 和 3024 点，支撑位 2969 和 2955 点；IC2603 阻力位 7035 和 7104 点，支撑位 6950 和 6899 点；IM2603 阻 力位 7157 和 ...

一、【早盘盘面回顾】 智通财经12月19日讯，市场早盘震荡走强，沪指高开高走，创业板指一度涨超1.5%。沪深两市半日成交额1.09万亿，较上个交易日放量421亿。盘面上热点 快速轮动，全市场近4700只个股上涨。从板块来看，大消费板块持续拉升，零售、乳业方向领涨，中央商场、庄园牧场等多股涨停。智能驾驶概念走强，浙 江世宝4连板。路畅科技4天2板。商业航天概念反复活跃，华体科技2连板。可控核聚变概念开盘表现强势，王子新材3天2板。下跌方面，影视院线概念走 弱，博纳影业大跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.59%，深成指涨0.93%，创业板指涨0.99%。 个股来看，今日早盘涨停数量为59家（不包括ST及未开板新股），封板率为71%，连板股数量为12家，胜通能源6连板，浙江世宝4连板，中天服务、鹭燕医 药、庄园牧场、嘉美包装3连板，三湘印象、中央商场、上海九百、九牧王、华体科技、法狮龙2连板。 板块上，大消费反复活跃，零售板块再度走强，德必集团、大连友谊、东百集团、上海九百等个股涨停。 | | 商业零售 +3.82% + 自选 | | | 02 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 ...

智通财经12月19日讯，今日70股涨停，23股炸板，封板率为75%，胜通能源6连板，浙江世宝4连板，苏 利股份、中天服务、鹭燕医药3连板，西部材料11天6板，威帝股份10天5板，九牧王、嘉美包装6天4 板。沪指震荡回升，创业板指冲高回落，此前一度涨超1.5%。东百集团、平潭发展、海峡创新等多只 高位股尾盘跳水。沪深两市成交额1.73万亿，较上一个交易日放量704亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮 动，全市场超4400只个股上涨。板块方面，海南、乳业、零售等板块涨幅居前，贵金属、半导体等板块 跌幅居前。 国内首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可落地，长安、比亚迪、广汽、东风、上汽、吉利、小鹏、 理想等车企的多款车型已经获得上路测试许可。智能驾驶概念再掀高潮，浙江世宝晋级4连板，威帝股 份、索菱股份、山子高科涨停，豪恩汽电触及20厘米涨停。而日元加息利空落地，令港股智能驾驶以及 汽车整车股同样表现突出，佑驾创新单日飙涨超30%，小鹏汽车、零跑汽车双双涨超5%，从多家券商 机构研报看，在全球监管机构持续松绑智能驾驶商业化外，L4级无人驾驶也有望在明年迎来元年时 刻，其中长途运输、物流配送、出租车领域或实现年均100%以上复 ...

智通财经12月19日讯，今日70股涨停，23股炸板，封板率为75%，胜通能源6连板，浙江世宝4连板，苏利股份、中天服务、鹭燕医药3连板，西部材料11天6 板，威帝股份10天5板，九牧王、嘉美包装6天4板。沪指震荡回升，创业板指冲高回落，此前一度涨超1.5%。东百集团、平潭发展、海峡创新等多只高位股 尾盘跳水。沪深两市成交额1.73万亿，较上一个交易日放量704亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4400只个股上涨。板块方面，海南、乳业、零售 等板块涨幅居前，贵金属、半导体等板块跌幅居前。 | 星期五 16:54:14 | 2025/12/19 昌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +0.75% | 3905.30 | 消费精选 | 智能驾驶 | 平潭发展 | | 锰硅 | 中国中免 | 金融科技 | W | nN | | 乳业奶粉 | 商业航天 | 海南 | | | | Al医疗 | 可控核聚变 | 海南 | | | | 光通信 | 创新药 | | | | | 乳业奶粉 | 商业零售 | | | | | 3847.44 | -0.75% | 11:30 / ...

新股上市：N优迅 688807.SH 中签缴款：江天科技 920121.BJ * 来源：国金证券第5小时 新股申购：誉帆科技 001396.SZ 新股申购：双欣环保 001369.SZ 新股申购：强一股份 688809.SH 1、中国对外开放迎来具有里程碑意义的标志性举措。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作12月18日正式启动，"零关税"商品范围扩大到6600多个税目。对消费 者而言，首先，到海南出差、旅游、生活如常，不需要任何额外证件。其次，对于文旅消费"买买买"，将有更好的体验。有媒体实探三亚海旅免税城发 现，在一家售卖苹果产品的门店，免税价叠加消费券，苹果手机最高可比官网售价便宜2140元。 2、时隔16年我国再次对钢铁实施出口许可证管理。商务部表示，此举主要目的是加强对钢铁产品出口的监测统计分析，跟踪出口产品质量。与此同时， 商务部已批准部分稀土出口通用许可申请。商务部指出，欧委会近期密集对中国企业发起《外国补贴条例》（FSR）调查，中方对此强烈反对，将采取必 要措施，坚决维护中国企业合法权益。 3、山东省莱州市三山岛北部海域新发现国内唯一、亚洲最大的海底巨型金矿，全市累计探明金资源储量3900余吨，约占全国 ...

12月18日消费相关板块持续火热，影视、家电、游戏等板块上涨，游戏ETF收涨0.86%，家电ETF收涨0.33%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 516010 | 游戏ETF | 0.86% | | 159996 | 家电ETF | 0.33% | | 516620 | 影视ETF | 0.29% | 资料来源：wind 消息面上，12月18日学习时报发表《何为"犒赏经济"》，引发市场关注。当前，我国经济发展从高速发展阶段转向高质 量发展阶段，人民对美好生活的向往总体上已经从"有没有"转向"好不好"，消费结构持续优化，犒赏经济悄然成长。犒 赏经济反映出社会心理与消费习惯的变迁：在生活压力与高质量转型期，消费者更愿意通过影视娱乐、高品质游戏或智 能化家电来获取即时的"情绪价值"与生活品质提升。 这一现象与日前闭幕的中央经济工作会议定调高度契合。会议明确提出要"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，并将提 振消费摆在首位。对于家电板块，国补的常态化与扩围提供了坚实的业绩底座；对于游戏与影视板块，清理不合理限制 措施、支持文化产业高质量发展的导向，则为其注入了长期增长的 ...

12月19日，金融界财经早餐，宏观政策、资本市场、行业板块、公司个股要闻一览： 一、今日财经要闻 1、商务部、海关总署发布公告，时隔16年我国再次对钢铁实施出口许可证管理。同时，商务部已批准部分稀土出口通用许可申请，商务部指出，欧委会近 期密集对中国企业发起《外国补贴条例》（FSR）调查，中方对此强烈反对，将采取必要措施，坚决维护中国企业合法权益。 二、资本市场大事 5、美国11月CPI同比增长2.7%，预估为增长3.1%，核心CPI同比增长2.6%，预估为增长3%，其中核心CPI为2021年以来最低水平。消息落地后，明年降息两 次的概率升至80%左右，降息三次的概率也有50%左右，美股反弹。 6、日本将会在11点左右宣布利率决议，目前加息25PB的概率接近99%。 1、吴清发声，扎实推进资本市场"十五五"规划编制和实施，包括：持续提高资本市场制度包容性吸引力，吸引更多新质生产力领域优质企业上市；扩大耐 心资本、长期资本和战略资本供给；稳步扩大制度型高水平对外开放；持续活跃并购重组市场，严格常态化退市；从严打击财务造假，加强投资者保护和教 育等等。 2、19日为12月的第3个星期五，为2512期指合约的交割日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive market information including macro - data, commodity investment, finance, and the stock market. In 2025, the investment downward pressure has increased, and measures are needed to expand effective investment. The consumer structure is upgrading, and new consumption models are emerging. The bond and stock markets show different trends, and various industries face different opportunities and challenges [2][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous quarter (5.2%) but faster than the same period last year (4.6%). The manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.2%, slightly up from the previous month but lower than the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activity in November was 49.5%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. The social financing scale increment in November was 8161.00 billion yuan. The M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in November were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8.0% respectively. The new RMB loans in November were 3900.00 billion yuan. The CPI in November rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in November was - 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods in November was 4.0%. The export value in November increased 5.9% year - on - year, and the import value increased 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port was officially launched, with the "zero - tariff" commodity scope expanding to over 6600 tariff items. China re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, and approved some rare - earth export general license applications. The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. The exchange issued trading limit regulations [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metal - Morgan Stanley believes that as zinc exports increase, LME zinc inventories are rising, and mine - end supply growth will continue in 2026. Korea Zinc plans to invest 15 trillion won in South Korea by 2029 to increase strategic mineral production. ICBC will strengthen the management of its agency business for individual precious - metal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The London Metal Exchange plans to implement new position - limit rules from next July [4][5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Westpac warns that iron - ore prices will drop 20% next year due to China's steel production cuts and new supply. Rio Tinto will start the first phase of a project in Western Australia, with an estimated annual iron - ore output of 50 million tons by 2030. The European Commission proposes to expand the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to downstream steel and aluminum - intensive products [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU Parliament plans to phase out Russian natural - gas imports by the end of 2027. Russia may extend the diesel export ban for non - oil - producing countries. China's first offshore CCUS well was drilled in the South China Sea, which is expected to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The USDA expects global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to increase 4.6% year - on - year to 189.3 million tons [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 18, the central bank conducted 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6.97 billion yuan. The market believes this is to meet the cross - year capital demand. The central bank will issue 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22 [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance held a meeting on the "Three New" pilot projects. The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued regulations on liability - investigation for central enterprises' illegal business investments. China re - implemented export license management for steel and approved some rare - earth export general license applications. The "Reward Economy" is emerging among the young, driving domestic demand. The central government will prioritize expanding domestic demand in 2026. The bank - wealth management market is booming, with the scale reaching about 34 trillion yuan by the end of November. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's urban housing demand is estimated to be about 49.8 billion square meters. Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds in October, while China reduced its holdings. Germany plans to issue a record 512 billion euros of federal debt next year. Trump said the next Fed chair nominee will support "substantial" rate cuts. The US November core CPI and overall CPI growth rates were lower than expected, but the data reliability is questioned. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the continuing claims increased. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. Some bond - related events and overseas credit ratings changes are also reported [12][13][14][15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was generally strong, with most interest - rate bond yields falling, but the 30 - year active bond yield rising slightly. Treasury - bond futures mostly rose. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose. The exchange - bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible - bond index rose slightly. The money - market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds mostly fell [18][19][20][21]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On Thursday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 41 basis points at the 16:30 close. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated by 10 basis points. The US dollar index rose 0.04% in New York, and most non - US currencies rose [22]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed - income believes that since November, the yields of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have generally risen. Huatai Fixed - income thinks that the central economic work conference's monetary policy is discretionary, and the fiscal policy may have a certain improvement in the economic quarter - on - quarter, but the project - end constraints and other effects need to be observed. Guosheng Macro believes that the November fiscal revenue and expenditure weakened, and the 2026 fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive". CITIC Securities explains the Fed's open - market operations and the new round of reserve - management bond purchases in December 2025 [23][24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 19, 169 bonds will be listed, 69 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 201 bonds will pay principal and interest [25]. 3.4 Stock Market - The CSRC will promote the compilation and implementation of the capital - market "14th Five - Year Plan". The A - share market had a divergence in large and small indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index falling 2.17%. The Hong Kong stock market had narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.12%. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is consulting the market on optimizing the trading - unit framework. Morgan Stanley expects the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index to have double - digit growth in 2026. Insurance asset - management institutions have been actively registering asset - support plans this year [27][28][29].

Group 1 - China's Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its zero-tariff operation on December 18, expanding the range of zero-tariff goods to over 6,600 items, enhancing consumer experience for travel and shopping [2] - The Ministry of Commerce has reintroduced export license management for steel for the first time in 16 years to strengthen monitoring and analysis of steel product exports [2] - A giant underwater gold mine has been discovered in Shandong Province, with proven gold reserves of over 3,900 tons, accounting for approximately 26% of the national total [2] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasizes the need to strengthen the construction of a unified national market and promote fair competition [3] - The U.S. has initiated a military sale to Taiwan valued at approximately $11 billion, marking one of the largest military sales [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines for holding central enterprises accountable for investment violations, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is advancing the "14th Five-Year" plan for the capital market, focusing on comprehensive reforms and high-level opening-up [4] - A-share indices showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.16% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17%, respectively [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a narrow consolidation, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.12% [4] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley predicts that chip stocks will remain one of the best-performing sectors in the U.S. stock market next year, highlighting Nvidia, Broadcom, and Astera Labs as top picks [5] - Insurance asset management institutions have registered 83 asset-backed plans this year, totaling approximately 344.56 billion yuan [5] - Domestic GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi Co., have recently listed on the STAR Market, attracting significant investment from insurance funds [5] Group 5 - A wave of IPOs is expected in the Hong Kong capital market, with several companies starting public offerings on December 18 [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the photovoltaic industry will enter a critical phase in 2026, focusing on capacity regulation [8] Group 6 - The State Council has issued guidelines to strengthen electronic cigarette regulation and combat illegal tobacco-related activities [9] - The upcoming New Year's holiday is projected to significantly boost the domestic tourism market, with flight bookings increasing by approximately 46% year-on-year [9] - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached a historical high of about 34 trillion yuan by the end of November [9] Group 7 - The People's Bank of China will issue 40 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22, with a maturity of six months [18] - The U.S. Treasury Department reported an increase in Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to $1.2 trillion in October [18]