Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report discusses the current expectations regarding production restrictions in the steel industry, highlighting the need for supply-side adjustments due to seasonal demand fluctuations and macroeconomic pressures [3][6] - It emphasizes the necessity of production cuts in response to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of a reduction in crude steel output across several provinces [5][6] - The report suggests that the steel sector is transitioning from a phase of undervaluation to a recovery phase, presenting a favorable investment opportunity for undervalued stocks [7][28] Summary by Sections Production Expectations - As the summer season approaches, demand for construction materials is expected to decline slightly, with a reported 4.63% year-on-year decrease in apparent consumption of major steel products [3] - Daily average pig iron production has decreased to 2.436 million tons, reflecting a downward trend in response to demand adjustments [3][4] - Inventory levels continue to decline, with a 2.20% decrease in major steel product inventories compared to the previous week [4] Production Cuts - Six provinces have indicated expectations for crude steel production cuts, totaling 24.41 million tons, which represents 6.4% of their projected 2024 output [5] - The report notes varying cutback percentages across provinces, with higher reductions in regions with fewer compliant steel enterprises [5] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing debate regarding the implementation of production cuts, with industry leaders acknowledging the necessity of managing steel output amid weak domestic demand and export challenges [6] - Despite pressures, steel profitability remains relatively stable, suggesting that the market may not yet feel the full impact of declining external demand [6] Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is viewed as a good entry point for investment, particularly in undervalued stocks that may benefit from potential production cuts and raw material price adjustments [7][28] - Specific companies are highlighted for their strong recovery potential, including Baosteel and other undervalued firms in the sector [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The absolute price is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. The follow - up still needs to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and emotional factors. Coke will be used as a short - position variety in the black market, with a volatile and weak trend. Focus on strategies such as narrowing coking profit and 91 positive spreads [2][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - The opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 last week was 935.0 yuan/ton, the highest was 939.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 877.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 877.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 44.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 1,276,899.0 lots and an open interest of 403,016.0 lots. - The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 last week was 1,538.0 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,552.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,444.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 86.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 93,798.0 lots and an open interest of 50,769.0 lots [5] Basis Analysis - The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 877.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 169 yuan/ton. The port - converted warehouse - receipt price of coke was 1460 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main coke 2509 contract was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 13 yuan/ton [5] Spread Analysis - The closing price of the main coke 2509 contract last week was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main coking coal 2509 contract was 877.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 coke and 2509 coking coal was 569.0 yuan/ton [5] Domestic Spot - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1090 yuan/ton (- 30); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton (- 6); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 1008 yuan/ton (- 5) [6] Port Inventory and Quotations Port Inventory - As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 750.00 million tons; the total coal inventory at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons; the coal inventory at Jingtang Port was 0.00 million tons, and the inventory at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 45.10 million tons [12] Port Quotations - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of foreign - trade Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Lianyungang was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Rizhao Port was 1190 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1295 yuan/ton [12] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 640.35, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,353.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,709.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [14] Coking Industry Coke Price Index - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1210 yuan/ton (-); the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tangshan was 1410 yuan/ton (-); the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1320 yuan/ton (- 20) [17] Coke Inventory - This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [19] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with the lower support level at 850 - 950 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1200 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with the lower support level at 1300 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1600 yuan/ton [23] Operation Suggestions - Interval operation [26]

一、高供应压力持续，减产动能不足 钢厂产量维持高位，供应压力难缓解。年初以来，国内钢材延续复产路径，铁水产量呈现增加态势。根 据Mysteel数据，截至5月9日，247家钢铁企业铁水日均产量达到245.64万吨，环比增加0.22万吨，较年 初低点224.37万吨增加21.27万吨，创年内新高。主要原因在于钢厂阶段性利润修复。年初以来，螺纹钢 高炉利润均值为104元/吨，最高达到139元/吨。同时，钢厂厂内库存水平正常，没有库存压力，叠加需 求处于阶段性恢复期，生产积极性较高。 5月后需求将逐步走弱，且受成材价格跌幅普遍大于原料影响，钢厂利润持续被压缩，增产动能受到抑 制，钢厂日均铁水的计划产量预计小幅回落至240万吨，后续大幅扩产的意愿趋于谨慎，但降幅依然有 限，高供应格局短期内难以扭转。 此外，当前钢厂虽面临利润压缩，江苏地区螺纹钢利润下滑至约40元/吨，但尚未进入全面亏损区间， 因此主动减产动力不足。同时，近期市场对粗钢限产的消息继续发酵，一度提振盘面情绪，但考虑到政 策落地的时间差，对短期钢厂生产影响较小。 在短期钢厂减产意愿偏弱的情况下，市场潜在的风险可能凸显。若5月下旬需求加速下滑，而钢厂减产 滞后 ...

晨报 成材 成材：基本面走弱 钢价向下调整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 9 日 逻辑：中钢协数据显示，2025 年 4 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生 产粗钢 2202 万吨，平均日产 220.2 万吨，日产环比下降 1.2%；钢材库存 量 1529 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.5%。本周，五大钢材品 种供应 874.17 万吨，周环比降 9.52 万吨，降幅为 1.1%；总库存 1476.07 万吨，周环比增 28.97 万吨，增幅为 2.0%；五大品种周度表观消费量为 846.37 万吨，环比降 12.7%。全国 91 家高炉钢厂，4 月底螺纹钢平均含 税成本为 3077 元/吨，环比下跌 14 元/吨，盈利 26 元/吨，减少 25 元/ 吨；热卷含税成本 3175 元/吨，环比减少 17 元/吨，盈利 71 元/吨，减少 62 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日下跌，五大材库存由降转增，且表需出现较大幅度下降。下 游无明显改善。此前的粗钢限产传闻对价格的支撑缺乏力度和持续性。后 续进入季节性淡季，钢价缺乏向上驱动。 观点：驱动不强，整体 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 30 元/吨，10 合约基差 138（+16），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's interpretation of policy benefits is limited, and funds still focus on weak expectations. The black sector only showed a brief rebound, without substantially changing the market pattern. Although the spot market is okay, the expectations remain weak. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement phase, resulting in a situation of "good reality but poor expectations." [5] - The cost of coking coal continues to decline, and the coal and coke futures hit new lows. The second round of price increase for coke is temporarily put on hold, with a price cut expected in the middle and late May. The market sentiment is weak, and the coking coal auction has many failed bids. The coal and coke market is recommended to be shorted on rallies. [6][7] - The market's interpretation of the press conference on Wednesday is limited. The steel mill's molten iron output has significantly rebounded, and the short - term iron ore valuation is relatively low. However, due to the expectation of production restrictions, it is not recommended to hold long iron ore positions unilaterally, but positive spreads can be used to express views. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3126 yuan/ton (+5, +0.16%), HC2601 at 3239 yuan/ton (+8, +0.25%), I2601 at 681 yuan/ton (+1, +0.15%), J2601 at 1550 yuan/ton (-9, -0.58%), and JM2601 at 951 yuan/ton (-13, -1.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton (+6, +0.088%), HC2510 at 3217 yuan/ton (+11, +0.34%), I2509 at 708 yuan/ton (+2.5, +0.35%), J2509 at 1507 yuan/ton (-10, -0.66%), and JM2509 at 908 yuan/ton (-7, -0.77%). [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads (RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, JM2509 - 2601) on May 7 were - 28, - 22, 27, - 43, - 43 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 4, 6, 2, 5.5, 5 yuan/ton. The spreads/price ratios/profits on May 7 were: the coil - to - rebar spread was 119 yuan/ton (0 change), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.38 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.66 (+0.01), the rebar disk profit was - 118.55 yuan/ton (+12.73), and the coking disk profit was 299.36 yuan/ton (+9.66). [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3230, 3220, 3460 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40, 30, 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3290, 3290, 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 60, 50, 30 yuan/ton. Other spot prices and their changes are also provided in the report. [2] - **Basis**: On May 7, the basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM were 73, 132, 69, 151.66, 102 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 39, 19, 0, - 5, - 6.5 yuan/ton. [2]

黑色产业日报 周三，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3220 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 122（-11），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 6th, the A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13% to 3316.11, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84% to 10082.34, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97% to 1986.41. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.3362 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended strongly on May 6th, closing at 3808.54, up 37.97 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - On May 6th, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1501.6 yuan, down 48.4 [1]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of independent coking plants increased steadily with profit and hot metal growth, and the start - up of steel - enterprise - affiliated coking plants was stable. The profit per ton of independent coking plants was close to the break - even line, so the motivation for production reduction was weak. In terms of demand, the average daily output of hot metal last week was 2.4542 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons, showing resilient rigid demand. However, due to crude steel production restrictions and Sino - US tariff issues, the market was worried about steel demand, and speculative demand weakened. In terms of inventory, ports and independent coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The total inventory decreased slightly, and inventory was transferred from upstream to downstream [1]. Coking Coal - During the holiday, coking coal showed a flat performance. Recently, the news of steel production restrictions has depressed the sentiment of coking coal. On the supply side, the domestic coal supply continued to resume production, with the operating rate of 523 sample mines at 89.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, and the import volume of seaborne coal decreased due to factors such as profit. Overall, it showed a trend of "increasing domestically and decreasing externally", but the total supply was still relatively abundant [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short - term decline, short - sellers covered their positions at low prices, supporting the continued rebound of US sugar on Monday. Supported by the rise of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on Tuesday, but the decline in the spot price limited the upward space of the futures price. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated slightly [2]. Rubber - Boosted by the rising stock market, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday. Affected by the large short - term increase and technical factors, the night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher. According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [3]. Palm Oil - On May 6th, palm oil opened low and moved lower following the external market. The main contract P2509 closed with a downward - gap candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 7960, the lowest was 7918, and the closing price was 7932, down 0.53% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, affected by concerns about international trade tensions and the decline of soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with the M2509 main contract closing at 2915 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. As imported Brazilian soybeans are unloaded at factories, the operating rate of oil mills will increase rapidly, and domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to rise. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Live Hogs - On Tuesday, live hog futures fluctuated, with the LH2509 main contract closing at 13,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36%. Currently, the market is in the off - season of demand, and the overall consumer demand is weak. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply of live hogs in the market has increased. The live hog futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Shanghai Copper - Global economic uncertainty has intensified, but in April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to expand, providing some support for copper prices. At the same time, global copper mine supply has been affected, and China's economic recovery has led to an increase in copper demand. Under the combined effect of supply - demand factors and capital inflow, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed slightly higher [6]. Cotton - On the night of Tuesday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 12,835 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 76 lots compared with the previous trading day. The emergence rate of cotton in Xinjiang was good [6]. Iron Ore - On May 6th, the main contract of iron ore 2509 fluctuated and closed flat at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore decreased due to the maintenance of some port berths in Australia. Steel mills' rigid demand for replenishment supported the further increase of hot metal output, but the room for further increase was limited. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On May 6th, the main contract of asphalt 2506 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.32%, closing at 3361 yuan. The planned asphalt production in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Affected by holidays, asphalt shipments decreased, and social inventory was high. Recently, international oil prices have fallen sharply, weakening the cost support. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Logs - On Tuesday, the 2507 log contract opened at 784, with a minimum of 783, a maximum of 793, and closed at 789.5, with a daily increase of 521 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803. On May 6th, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and outbound volume increased slightly. Overall demand was still weak, and there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Steel - On May 6th, rb2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3196 yuan/ton. The hot metal output of long - process steelmaking reached the peak and then declined this week, and the operating rate of electric furnaces also decreased slightly. The output of rebar decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years. The actual demand was lower than expected. Currently, there is no new policy information, and the upward driving force of steel prices is weak. Steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Alumina - On May 6th, ao2509 closed at 2675 yuan/ton. With the increase in bauxite supply, bauxite prices still have some room to fall, which is negative for alumina prices. The situation of production reduction, resumption, and new capacity release coexists. There is still capacity to resume production in Australia and India overseas. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase significantly in the future [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 6th, al2506 closed at 19,785 yuan/ton. The easing of Sino - US relations on tariff issues stimulated the rise of US stocks and drove up the price of aluminum in the external market. However, the weakening of aluminum demand in the off - season restricted the upward range of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 67,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate is expected to remain in oversupply in May, and its price may maintain a weak - shock trend in the short term [10].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industry lacks upward drivers and is in a weak consolidation phase, with overall pressure due to weak downstream demand and entering the seasonal off - season [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Construction Steel - In April, the daily average trading volume of national construction steel was 11,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.93% [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - In April, the total output of sample hot - rolled coil steel mills was 1.2679 billion tons, the final inventory was 2.8286 billion tons, and the apparent demand was 3.2436 billion tons [3] Real Estate - In April, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,764 yuan per square meter, a structural month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 2.50% - In April, the average price of second - hand residential buildings in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.23% [3] Market Situation - During the holiday, overseas markets showed mixed trends, and the overseas iron ore market declined slightly. The macro - environment has limited impact on black - series products - Before the holiday, the performance of finished products was weak. Although there were rumors of crude steel production restrictions driving up steel prices, the price quickly gave back all the gains due to weak downstream demand - The market is currently trading based on fundamental logic, and steel prices lack upward drivers as it enters the seasonal off - season [3]

钢铁周报 20250504 粗钢限产预期再起，钢厂利润有望回升 2025 年 05 月 04 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 4 月 30 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材 质螺纹价格为 3200 元/吨，较上周持平。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上 周升 10 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周持平。冷轧 1.0mm 价 格为 3670 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3510 元/吨，较上 周升 20 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格震荡，进口矿市场价格稳中有跌， 废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润上升。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化+53 元/吨，+20 元/吨和-54 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+35 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 5 月 2 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比下降。产量方 面，本周五大钢材品种产量 884 万吨，环比升 7.85 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量周 环比增 3.37 万吨，板材产量周环比升 4.48 万吨，螺纹钢本周增产 4.2 ...