钢铁周报 20250504 粗钢限产预期再起，钢厂利润有望回升 2025 年 05 月 04 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格涨跌互现。截至 4 月 30 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材 质螺纹价格为 3200 元/吨，较上周持平。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上 周升 10 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周持平。冷轧 1.0mm 价 格为 3670 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3510 元/吨，较上 周升 20 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格震荡，进口矿市场价格稳中有跌， 废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润上升。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化+53 元/吨，+20 元/吨和-54 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+35 元/吨。 ➢ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；钢价大幅下跌；原材料价格大幅波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 成材 成材：节前规避风险 钢价偏弱整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成材昨日震荡下跌，回吐周一涨幅。此前的粗钢限产传闻一度带动钢 价反弹，但实际下游疲弱的情况则限制了钢价涨幅，且五一假期临近进一 步导致市场趋于谨慎。政治局会议无超预期政策，市场回归基本面逻辑， 后续进入季节性淡季，钢价缺乏向上驱动。 观点：驱动不强，整体承压。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：4月29日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 31 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Recommend shorting at high prices [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [5] - Pulp: Weak sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Weak sideways [5] - Palm oil: Weak sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Weak sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Weak sideways [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 2: Weak sideways [7] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Sideways [7] - PTA: Sideways [7] - MEG: Low - level range [7] - PR: Hold off [8] - PF: Hold off [8] - Plastic: Weak sideways [8] - PP: Weak sideways [8] - PVC: Weak sideways [8] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are gradually weakening due to repeated tariff disturbances and the resurgence of crude steel production restrictions. The supply of coking coal and coke is in an oversupply situation, and the market is pessimistic. The steel market is affected by policies and demand, with a cautious outlook. The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with a short - term low - level sideways trend. The stock index market has a positive outlook with the easing of external market risks. The bond market is under pressure, and long positions in bonds should be reduced. The precious metals market is affected by multiple factors, with high - level sideways trends expected. The pulp market has weak demand and falling prices. The forest products market has marginal improvement, with a sideways trend. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is expected to be weak sideways. The rubber market has weak short - term driving forces and is expected to be weak sideways. The chemical product market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships, with mostly sideways or weak sideways trends [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Tariff disturbances and crude steel production restrictions have led to a weakening of fundamentals. Overseas iron ore shipments are increasing, and with the improvement of weather and the end of mine maintenance, shipments and arrivals are expected to rise in the second quarter. Steel mill profits are okay, but there is an expectation of a peak in molten iron production, and market sentiment is pessimistic. Radical investors can hold a light position in the iron ore 09 contract and avoid uncertainties during the May Day holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Domestic coking coal production is still high, and supply has increased. Affected by tariff policies, steel spot trading is poor, and market confidence is frustrated. Most coking enterprises are at the break - even point, and the second round of coke price increases has not been implemented. The supply of coke is in an oversupply situation, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2] - **Rebar**: At the beginning of the month, the tariff impact landed, but the total reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut tools have not been implemented. The market is cautious. At the end of the month, the crude steel policy has an impact, and the supply - side contraction expectation supports steel prices. Rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and cost support is strengthening. Demand is falling, and there are signs of a peak. It is recommended that investors hold a light position during the May Day holiday [2] - **Glass**: The conversion of 9 glass coal - fired production lines in Shahe City to clean gas has increased the cost of the far - month contract, making the far - month contract stronger than the near - month contract. Recently, coal prices have fallen rapidly, and the profit of coal - fired glass has improved. The start - up rate and daily output of float glass have declined, and supply has decreased slightly. Downstream demand is still weak, and inventory has started to accumulate. It is recommended to hold a light position during the May Day holiday and pay attention to spot trading, macro policies, and inventory changes [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in stock index futures can be held [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Interest rates are fluctuating, and the market is under pressure. Long positions in Treasury bonds should be reduced [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. It has multiple attributes such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The current logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and short - term fluctuations may be caused by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies. Silver is also in a high - level sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to inflation and employment data [4][5] Forest Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline, and the cost price has also decreased, weakening the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to be weak sideways [5] - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, but demand has declined after reaching a phased high. The arrival volume in the near future has decreased, and supply pressure has eased. The inventory at ports has remained stable. The cost has decreased, and the market price is expected to be sideways [5] Oil and Fats - The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly. The supply of the three major oils is sufficient, and with the end of pre - holiday stocking, the oil and fat market is expected to be weak sideways [5] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply side is expected to increase in May as the main domestic and overseas production areas start tapping. The demand side has weak sales in the semi - steel tire industry, and the overall demand is uncertain. The inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak sideways. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy aspects [7] Chemical Products - **PX**: There is a lack of positive drivers, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. The domestic PX load is fluctuating, and the demand from the PTA side has declined. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [7] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and the PXN spread is around $184/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 429 yuan/ton. The TA load has increased, and the polyester load is maintained. The short - term supply - demand situation is in a state of inventory reduction, mainly affected by raw material prices [7] - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The polyester load is stable. Raw material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7] - **Plastic Products**: Most chemical products are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and policies. The market is in a sideways or weak sideways trend. For example, the plastic market is affected by concerns about economic decline and new device production, with a weak outlook. The PP market is affected by falling oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with a weak sideways trend. The PVC market has a decline in upstream and downstream starts, and inventory has decreased, but the market is still expected to be weak sideways [8]

黑色产业日报 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落预期，同 时叠加后续出口持续性担忧。供给方面，全球发运与上周基本持平，其 中澳洲发运有所回升，巴西发运下降。到疏港量均有回落，部分压港释 放，港口库存有所回升。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，整体进口矿日耗 有所增加。本周钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极性提 高。上周末出现粗钢限产传闻，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，暂以不 实小作文看待。即便属实，五千万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难 以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面铁矿属于供需双强阶段，但即将进入传 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较上周 五上涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 180（+15）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双 方并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺 激信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速 度仍然较快，通常而言， ...

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 29 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：4月23日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 31 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/4/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Title - "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 04 - 28: Production Cut Expectations Released, Black Market Oscillates Strongly" [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded, while the futures market oscillated strongly [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production resumed beyond expectations, and electric furnace production increased slightly [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials inventory slowed down, and plate inventory followed the same trend [7] - Demand: The month - on - month growth rate of building materials demand slowed down, and plate demand was stronger domestically than internationally [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits expanded, while electric furnace losses widened [7] - Basis: The basis widened slightly, and it was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads [7] - Summary: Trade conflicts were still stalemated but overall cooled down. Domestic policies were neutral. The industry saw an acceleration in blast furnace resumption and an increase in overall supply. Demand growth slowed down, and inventory de - stocking speed decreased. The market was expected to oscillate. Strategies included reducing short positions before the holiday and looking for short - selling opportunities after the holiday [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded weakly [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and arrivals decreased significantly [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand was released beyond expectations [7] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream inventory changed little [7] - Shipping: Shipping prices both increased [7] - Spread: The futures spread was flat, and the variety spread changed little [7] - Summary: There were rumors of significant crude steel production cuts in China. Supply tightened, demand increased, and port inventory rebounded. The market rebounded weakly due to production cut expectations. A long - term bearish view was maintained, with short positions reduced before the holiday and caution against policy impacts [7] Steel Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar futures rebounded weakly, with the main contract rising 0.81% to close at 3101. Spot prices oscillated upwards, with East China rebar at 3190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/week. Market sentiment improved, and spot trading volume increased [14] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77 percentage points week - on - week and 4.60 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week - on - week [17] - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased significantly. Rebar short - process production decreased due to profit issues. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.93%, down 0.14 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.51 percentage points year - on - year. Capacity utilization was 56.66%, up 0.33 percentage points week - on - week and 6.17 percentage points year - on - year [22][25] - Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.11 tons last week, mainly due to production conversion and maintenance in some provinces. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.1 tons to 317.5 tons, mainly in the north due to the resumption of previously shut - down mills [29] Demand - From April 16th to April 22nd, the national cement delivery volume was 352.05 tons, up 4.85% week - on - week and down 22.28% year - on - year. Infrastructure cement direct supply was 188 tons, up 2.73% week - on - week and down 1.05% year - on - year. Terminal demand growth slowed down due to the drag of the real estate sector, while speculative demand increased due to production cut rumors [32] - In March, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 7.7% year - on - year. The downstream capacity utilization of hot - rolled coils decreased due to export tariffs, and market orders were affected [35] Profit - The blast furnace profit rate of steel mills was 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and 6.93 percentage points year - on - year. The average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace building materials steel mills was 3349 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit was a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton [40] Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 40.9 tons week - on - week, with a decrease rate of 4.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 6.67 tons, and social inventory decreased in East, South, and North China. It was expected to continue de - stocking in May and start accumulating in June [43] - Hot - rolled coil factory inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased in the South and East but increased in the North. The total inventory de - stocking speed slowed down due to increased supply and decreased terminal orders [46] Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis was 99, 45 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [53] Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 36, 1 more inverted than last week. The near - month building materials production peaked, and terminal demand growth slowed down. It was not recommended to intervene in the spread trading [56] Inter - variety Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 103 on the futures market, 2 narrower than last week, and 70 in the spot market, 10 narrower than last week. It was at a neutral level, and no trading was recommended [59] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded from a low and then slightly corrected. The main contract rose 1.43% to close at 709. Spot prices also increased, with Qingdao Port PB fines rising 5 yuan to 761 yuan/ton. Steel mills' restocking demand increased, and trading volume expanded [64] Supply - From April 14th to April 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2437.7 tons, up 2.9 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1799.2 tons, up 92.9 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1574.3 tons, up 98.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 638.6 tons, down 89.9 tons. The global total shipments were 2925.5 tons, up 17.8 tons week - on - week [67] - The 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2449.2 tons, down 168.7 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrivals in April were 2475 tons, up 2.6 tons from March and 35 tons from last April [73] Rigid Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 244.35 tons/day, up 4.23 tons/day week - on - week, 19.2 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and 15.6 tons/day year - on - year. Demand was expected to remain high next week [76] Speculative Demand - Due to the easing of trade conflicts and the approaching May Day holiday, some traders and steel mills increased their restocking demand. The port iron ore spot trading volume continued to improve [79] Port Inventory - Last week, port inventory increased due to decreased port clearance. The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 14781 tons, up 231 tons week - on - week, 829.44 tons less than the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons less than the same period last year. It was expected to slightly decrease next week [82] Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 new - standard steel mills was 2771.39 tons, down 28.91 tons from the previous period. The total imported ore powder inventory increased by about 20 tons, and the overall change was not significant [85] Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.7 dollars/ton, up 0.66 dollars/ton, and from Brazil to China was 19.4 dollars/ton, up 0.57 dollars/ton [88] Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 26, the same as last week, at a neutral - low level. The 09 contract discount was 76, a relatively high level, narrowing 2 last week. The variety spread trading had no clear direction [90][93]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-28） | | | | 铁矿：关税扰动反复，以及粗钢限产政策又起，铁矿基本面逐步走弱。随 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 着天气转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 逐步回升。当前钢厂利润尚可，粗钢限产政策再起，铁水见顶预期。钢厂 | | | | | 铁矿库存低位，五一小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概 | | | | | 率围绕稳地产和消费复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长。反倾销和关税 | | | | | 影响仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，激进 | | | | | 的投资者入场的铁矿 09 合约持有。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受挫，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，市场对后续 | | | | | 预期并不乐观。目前 ...