Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The江苏现货 price increased by 5 to 2390, the华南现货 price decreased by 10 to 2395, and the鲁南折盘面 price decreased by 5 to 2455. The西南折盘面 price decreased by 55 to 2475, while the河北折盘面 and西北折盘面 prices remained unchanged at 2435 and 2575 respectively. The CFR中国 and CFR东南亚 prices remained at 275 and 333 respectively. The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 increased by 10 to -5, and the盘面MTO利润 decreased by 22 to -1243 [2] Core View - High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a period of bearish factors being realized. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the single - side direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [3] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the东北亚乙烯 price remained at 820. The华北LL price remained unchanged at 7190, the华东LL price decreased by 10 to 7290, and the华东LD and华东HD prices remained unchanged at 9450 and 7850 respectively. The LL美金 and LL美湾 prices remained at 850 and 939 respectively. The进口利润 remained at - 145, the主力期货 price decreased by 63 to 7221, the基差 increased by 10 to - 80, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 remained at 5956 [8] Core View - For polyethylene, the two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. The upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. The downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New devices in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on the commissioning of new devices [8] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6320, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 740. The华东PP price decreased by 20 to 7010, the华北PP price decreased by 18 to 7070, and the山东粉料 price decreased by 70 to 6830. The华东共聚 price decreased by 14 to 7296. The PP美金 and PP美湾 prices remained at 890 and 1010 respectively. The出口利润 remained at 0, the主力期货 price decreased by 52 to 7015, the基差 increased by 10 to - 20, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 decreased by 200 to 10317 [8] Core View - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and markets in Europe and the US are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the西北电石 price remained at 2250, the山东烧碱 price increased by 20 to 857. The电石法 - 华东 price remained at 4900, the乙烯法 - 华东 price remained at 5500, the电石法 - 华南 price remained at 5450, and the电石法 - 西北 price increased by 100 to 4550. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700, the出口利润 remained at 387, the西北综合利润 remained at 356, the华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 20 to - 80 [12][13] Core View - The basis maintains at 09 - 150, and the factory - delivery basis is - 450. Downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - and upstream has slowed down. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. Pay attention to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. Near - term export orders have decreased slightly. Coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of兰炭 is stable, and the profit of电石 is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda export is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap - refined substitution, but there is strong support below the price [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc short - allocation idea remains unchanged, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio contraction [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [9]. - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro - influences [11]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the top enterprises continue to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, supply is expected to be in surplus next week, and the "anti - involution" policy may drive up sentiment [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the copper price showed a reverse - V trend. Macro - data was mixed, and the domestic market started to accumulate inventory in the off - season. The refined - scrap price difference widened, and a moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1]. Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. The short - allocation strategy remains unchanged [4]. Nickel - Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Pay attention to the price - ratio contraction opportunity [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to be weak and volatile [9]. Lead - The lead price rose this week. Supply - side issues include weak scrap production and tight waste batteries. Demand - side has high battery inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a certain range next week [11]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by mine issues, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Top enterprises are cutting production, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The price rose this week due to policy - driven sentiment. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long term [17].

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V-shaped trend. The ADP and non-farm payroll data diverged, causing the overall interest rate cut expectation to fluctuate. Trump's "Great Beauty" Act was implemented, and short-term broad fiscal policies may have a certain stimulating effect [1]. - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start-up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline during the off-season from July to August, and overall copper consumption by downstream industries has been somewhat suppressed [1]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened this week, weakening the substitution effect. It is expected that there will be a moderate inventory increase from July to August [1]. - With the S232 investigation pending, there is still strong support below the copper price. A significant drop would require a macro black swan event, which is currently unlikely. During the off-season in the third quarter, the copper price is expected to have some adjustment room due to inventory accumulation and the decline in the refined-scrap substitution effect [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1]. - In terms of inventory, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short-term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low-inventory situation, attention should be paid to inter-month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [1]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and the imported TC increased slightly. Some smelters are undergoing maintenance in July, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - On the demand side, domestic demand has weakened seasonally. The spot premium in North China has turned to a discount, and those in East and South China have basically leveled off. Overseas, demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face certain production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4]. - Domestically, social inventory has increased oscillatingly. Due to more factory pick-ups at the current price, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slightly slower than expected. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased oscillatingly since May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4]. - The strategy remains to short zinc and sell on rallies. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. Group 4: Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year-on-year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of demand for scrap batteries. Although the low profit has improved this week, the operating rate remains low. The willingness of recyclers to sell at a high price has weakened [7]. - From April to June, the operation rate of concentrate mines increased, but the supply of domestic and foreign concentrates has tightened, and the TC is in a mess [7]. - On the demand side, battery inventory is high. This week, the battery operating rate rebounded, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The refined-scrap spread is -50, the willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has increased, but the reception is poor. There is speculation about cancelled LME warehouse receipts [7]. - From April to July, overall consumption during the off-season is weak, and orders only meet the rigid demand. This week's price increase is due to speculation about the improvement in battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts, but in reality, downstream buyers only replenish their inventories for rigid demand at high prices [7]. - The profit of recycled lead has improved, but the operating rate has not increased. The willingness of scrap battery owners to sell at a high price is strong, and the price support behavior is weaker than in the previous upward cycle. The willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has improved, but the reception is poor. The refined-scrap spread is -50, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 40, mainly maintaining long-term orders [7]. - It is expected that lead will oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week. If the macro situation affects the lead price to remain above 17,200, it may trigger the risk of a price support cycle. In July, primary lead supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is weak [7]. Group 5: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the short-term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, still needs negotiation. The processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province, China, have reduced production, and those in Yunnan Province are still struggling to maintain production. In June, the output of tin ingots decreased by more than 1 kt month-on-month [9]. - Overseas, except for Wa State, supply disruptions have basically subsided. The import volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May exceeded expectations, mainly due to traders' inventories [9]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rates of the terminal electronics and photovoltaic industries are expected to decline significantly. Domestic inventory has increased oscillatingly. Overseas consumption rush continues, but the LME inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [9]. - On the spot side, the supply of small-brand tin ingots remains tight. Most of the exchange inventory is high-priced Yunzi-brand tin ingots, and downstream buyers have no strong willingness to pick them up [9]. - In the short term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline. It is expected that supply and demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. June and July may be the key stages to verify whether the tightness of tin ore will be transmitted to the tightness of tin ingots, and the bottom has strong support [9]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after the maintenance period [9]. Group 6: Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to reduce production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the significant production reduction of leading enterprises, the production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous expectation of a significant increase, and the supply-demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [13]. - If Hesheng continues to maintain the production reduction, the spot price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Previously, against the background of the futures price hitting a new low, the basis strengthened rapidly, stimulating the long-suppressed speculative and replenishment sentiments of downstream industries. The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts and non-standard products has been significant, and the spot price has been strong. The unexpected production reduction of leading enterprises has a significant marginal impact on the supply-demand balance, and there is a resumption of production in the downstream polysilicon industry [13]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased due to the promotion of the "anti-involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 contract price. The price difference between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream buyers settle at a later point in time, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [13]. - The high price has stimulated the resumption of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes continue to increase production. However, some factories have maintenance plans, and the hedging profit of externally purchased projects is abundant and production is ongoing [13]. - Downstream buyers are highly cautious and only maintain a safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver goods to the warehouse has improved, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased [13]. - In the medium and long term, there are many expansion projects for ore and lithium salt production capacities. If the operating rates of leading mining and smelting integrated enterprises do not decrease significantly, the lithium carbonate price will still fluctuate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and the reduction in new energy vehicle consumer loans has not improved demand as expected [13]. - The lithium ore price has rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious and replenish their inventories only for rigid demand. At the current price rebound, the profit of externally purchased smelters has improved, and they have resumed production. The profit of self-owned mines has increased, and the market clearance pace may be delayed [13]. - In the future, the supply elasticity is high. Large factories in Sichuan and previously maintained and technically improved enterprises are resuming production. Attention should be paid to the resumption time of the Jiuxiaowo project of CATL. Demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply will continue to exceed demand next week, leading to inventory accumulation, which will put upward pressure on the price. The fundamental oversupply situation has not been significantly reversed. However, the "anti-involution" competition policy may boost sentiment, and risks need to be guarded against [13]. Group 8: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [15]. - On the inventory side, overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been abolished, concerns about supply disruptions in the ore market have eased. The short-term real fundamentals are average, and opportunities for narrowing the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [15]. Group 9: Stainless Steel - From the supply side, some steel mills have been forced to reduce production since late May. On the demand side, demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [17]. - In terms of inventory, inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been de-stocked. The overall fundamentals remain weak. After the demand fades, the pressure on the spot market increases, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is occurring, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene price is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase slightly in June. The downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices undergo more maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices due to seasonal factors. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in June. The near - term export orders are acceptable. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and production starts [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2520 to 2437, the South China spot price decreased from 2480 to 2448. The import profit decreased from 125 to 58, and the main contract basis decreased from 90 to 25. The MTO profit on the futures market decreased from - 1208 to - 1219 [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The daily changes on July 7 compared to the previous period were 0 for power coal futures, - 18 for Jiangsu spot, - 17 for South China spot, - 10 for Lunan converted to futures price, 0 for Southwest converted to futures price, 0 for Hebei converted to futures price, - 25 for Northwest converted to futures price, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for main contract basis, and 0 for MTO profit on the futures market [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price fluctuated between 7150 - 7200 and then dropped to 7175 on July 7. The two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71, and the warehouse receipts remained at 5831 on July 4 and 7 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were 0 for Northeast Asian ethylene, - 25 for North China LL, - 50 for East China LL, - 25 for East China LD, 0 for East China HD, 0 for LL in US dollars, 0 for LL in US Gulf, 0 for import profit, - 35 for the main futures contract, 30 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and 0 for warehouse receipts [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6630 to 6420, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7060 to 7030, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71. The warehouse receipts decreased from 7404 to 7232 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 130 for Shandong propylene, 0 for Northeast Asian propylene, - 40 for East China PP, - 30 for North China PP, - 50 for Shandong powder, - 10 for East China copolymer, 0 for PP in US dollars, 0 for PP in US Gulf, 0 for export profit, - 21 for the main futures contract, 0 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and - 60 for warehouse receipts [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2250, the Shandong caustic soda price increased from 802 to 817. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China fluctuated between 4770 - 4850 and then dropped to 4830 on July 7. The import price in US dollars (CFR China) remained at 700, and the export profit remained at 465 from July 3 - 7 [11][12]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 50 for Northwest calcium carbide, 15 for Shandong caustic soda, - 20 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, 0 for ethylene - based PVC in East China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in South China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in the North, 0 for import price in US dollars (CFR China), 0 for export profit, 0 for Northwest comprehensive profit, 0 for North China comprehensive profit, and 0 for the basis (high - end delivery product) [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Zinc ore supply remains at a high level, and TC continues to rise. The expectation of zinc ingot production increase is high. However, some zinc smelters are shifting to the production of zinc alloy ingots, and part of the zinc ingots are converted into in-transit inventory in the form of direct delivery to downstream, which cannot be well reflected in the accumulation of social inventory. Recently, the commodity atmosphere is favorable, and the long sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is strong. The rapid upward movement of the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure also boosts the zinc price [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In June, the lead price continued to rise. The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 3.4% at 17,205 yuan/ton, with the total open interest in unilateral trading decreasing by 0.83 thousand lots. The LME Lead 3M contract closed up 3.79% at $2,041.5/ton. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 110 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -25 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 50 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: This week, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons. The operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including those on US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 32.5 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.2% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to May, the total zinc ore output was 141.12 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.5%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 49.15 million dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 85.3% and a month - on - month change of -0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 220.38 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 52.7% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 54.62 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 25.7% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 240.29 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6%. As of the end of June, the port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons [27]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the end of June, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton [29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In May 2025, the zinc ingot output was 54.94 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.1%. From January to May, the total zinc ingot output was 265.49 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.7%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 2.53 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -45.3% and a month - on - month change of -10.4%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 15.80 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -20.5%. In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 57.47 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -1.3% and a month - on - month change of -1.5%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 281.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: As of the end of June, the operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In May 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 58.28 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of -8.3%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 279.75 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.2% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a shortage of -0.81 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.53 million tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In March 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.98 million tons. From January to March, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 6.81 million tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai zinc increased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc rose, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is in a low - valuation state, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With macroeconomic instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. The basis is + 100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure. If exports continue to boom or PDH device maintenance increases, supply pressure can be alleviated [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150. Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summary by Sector Methanol - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 100, South China spot by 133, and Northwest converted - to - futures price by 18. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract basis increased by 30. The MTO profit on the futures market increased by 187 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has started. Iranian production has decreased, but non - Iranian supply has increased, and domestic supply has also risen [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, North China LL decreased by 115, and East China LD decreased by 75. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 194 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 90, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 188. The basis increased by 60 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under over - capacity, the 09 contract is under pressure [6]. PVC - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased by 25, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 80 [10]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability [10].

Group 1: Methanol - High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The futures market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a phase of bearish factors materializing. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - conditions and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine a clear direction for single - sided trading. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [1] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 10, the South China spot price was - 22, the Lunan converted price was + 18, and the Northwest converted price was + 33. Other prices such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [1] Group 2: Polyethylene (Plastic) - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of 09 contract is around 0 in North China and + 120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. In June, the number of maintenance activities is decreasing month - on - month, and the domestic linear production is increasing. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The new production facilities in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on their commissioning [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on June 23rd. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 5, the East China LD price was - 50, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [11] Group 3: Polypropylene (PP) - The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is + 100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene prices are oscillating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. In June, the supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [11] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the Shandong propylene price increased by 390, the East China PP price decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 13 [11] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream start - up is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In summer, the northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, focus on the commissioning of new facilities and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are decent. In June, pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants undergo maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level but is continuously decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13] - From June 17th to June 23rd, the northwest calcium carbide price increased by 25, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 25, and other prices remained unchanged [12][13]

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of steel has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the basis is expected to weaken due to approaching off-season and inventory nearing accumulation inflection point [1] - The demand for five major steel products is expected to continue its downward trend, with a decrease of 14,000 tons to 868 million tons [2] - Steel inventory is nearing the accumulation inflection point, with total inventory decreasing by 9,000 tons to 1,354 million tons, while plate materials have entered a clear accumulation phase [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - The production of steel is showing a high-level decline, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while finished product reductions are significant [1] - The production of iron elements has increased by 15 million tons year-on-year from January to May, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons [1] - The current reduction in production is mainly reflected in rebar, while hot-rolled steel has not seen significant reductions [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost side shows that coking coal inventory continues to accumulate, with supply unlikely to shrink, leading to weak support for carbon element costs [1] - The current profitability ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [1] - The price of rebar has fallen below both electric furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in significant reductions in rebar production [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel price has shown signs of weakness after a brief rebound, with expectations of continued weak demand due to the suspension of national subsidies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel appliances [3] - The strategy for the week includes holding short positions on hot-rolled and rebar, with attention to whether previous lows of 3,000 and 2,900 can be broken [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of negative factor realization. With an unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral price direction is hard to determine. Due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferable [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreases and domestic linear production increases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 500. Exports are good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be relieved if exports increase or PDH device maintenance increases [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. Downstream has a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is average. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2265 to 2322, and the import profit remained at 320. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 5 in the Jiangsu spot price, while other indicators had little change [1]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has begun. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price increased from 7000 to 7070. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 20 in the North China LL price [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream and coal - chemical sectors reducing inventory. Import profits are around - 400, and non - standard HD injection prices are stable [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6380 to 6350, and the East China PP price increased from 6990 to 7060. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 40 in the East China PP price [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Exports are good this year, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 (since June 3), and the calcium carbide - based East China price increased from 4720 to 4760. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 50 in the calcium carbide - based East China price [10]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, and mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in June [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With the overall supply increasing and macro - instability, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's inclined to go long at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. June maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are de - stocking. The basis is +100, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are good. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under medium to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices are frequently shut down for maintenance [5]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [9]. 3) Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2245 to 2317, while the price of South China spot decreased from 2278 to 2300. The import profit remained at 261 on June 5, and the daily change was 0. The main contract basis was 42, with a daily change of -3, and the MTO profit on the futures market was -966, with a daily change of -4 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL remained at 7050, and the price of East China LD increased by 25. The import profit remained at -281, and the main futures price decreased by 15. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6350 to 6350, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7020 to 7020, and the main futures price decreased by 37. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 on June 5. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased from 4720 to 4710. The basis (high - end delivery product) decreased from -70 to -80 [8][9].