Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Economic Research and Trade Policy - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Core Insights and Arguments - The US has reduced tariffs on China to approximately 40%, down from 145%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point decrease in the effective US tariff rate, which now stands at around 14% compared to 3.5% at the beginning of the year [2][12][20] - This tariff reduction has led to an upward revision of the US GDP projections for 2025, now expected to expand by 0.6%, and a decrease in inflation forecasts due to less tariff pass-through [2][12] - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.5%, prompting a delay in the Federal Reserve's policy normalization until December [2][12] - The trade war's impact on business sentiment has been significant, with sentiment dropping into recession territory, but the anticipated recession in the US for the second half of 2025 has been removed due to the tariff détente [3][11] - Despite the positive developments, the overall global growth outlook remains weak, with recession risks still estimated at 40% for the second half of 2025 [11][17] Additional Important Content - The current US tariff rate represents a substantial tax hike equivalent to 1.25% of GDP, which could lead to upward pressure on prices for imported goods [14] - The US fiscal policy is shifting towards a more stimulative approach, with a proposed net stimulus of nearly 1% of GDP for the next year, which is expected to support continued labor demand and economic expansion [14][19] - The easing of trade tensions with China does not imply a resolution of trade issues with the EU and other Asian countries, where negotiations remain contentious [11][18] - The US administration's recent actions indicate a willingness to avoid "short-term pain for long-term gain," which has positively influenced asset prices and market sentiment [12][19] - The anticipated growth drag on China due to tariffs has been reduced to -1.5 percentage points, leading to a revised growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025 [20] - The economic integration deals with Gulf states, including significant investments and economic exchanges, are expected to enhance trade flows but have limited immediate economic impact [19][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of US trade policy changes and their effects on the broader economic landscape.

丹麦丹斯克银行推迟美联储降息预期，因经济衰退风险缓解 金十数据5月20日讯，丹斯克银行研究中心的分析师在一份报告中表示，由于近期关税驱动的经济衰退 风险正在缓解，该机构推迟了对美联储降息的预测。丹斯克银行现在预计美联储下一次降息将在9月 份，比之前预测的6月份晚了一个季度。然而，他们维持对终端利率的预测为3.00%-3.25%。随着美联储 开始每季度降息一次，最终利率现在要到2026年9月才能达到。宽松的金融环境、较低的关税以及4月份 强于预期的宏观经济数据降低了近期降息的必要性。但长期来看，结构性增长放缓和信贷增长依然低 迷，继续预示着未来将进一步降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade situation appears to be easing, while the economy still faces shallow and short recession risks [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's council member Martins Kazaks commented on the current trade dynamics [1] - There is an indication that the economic outlook remains fragile, with potential for a brief recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to significant tariff reductions, which have lowered the risk of a US economic recession. However, the effective tariff rate of 15.5% remains elevated compared to last year's 2.4%, indicating that inflation risks are not fully alleviated [1][4]. Economic Impact of Tariff Reductions - Following the tariff reductions, the effective tariff rate in the US is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, significantly reducing recession risks. This reduction alleviates the pressure on import costs, restores consumer confidence, and lowers the risks of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies, thereby stabilizing overall economic demand [4]. - Despite the reduction, the retained 10% baseline tariff on most countries will continue to exert supply-side pressure, potentially leading to a 0.73 percentage point decline in the US GDP growth rate by 2025 compared to a scenario without tariffs. This impact is a significant improvement from the previously estimated 1.4 percentage point decline [4]. - The unemployment rate may rise by an additional 0.5 percentage points in 2025 due to the economic slowdown, although the increase may be less pronounced than in previous years due to a reduced influx of labor supply [4]. Inflation Risks - The increase in the effective tariff rate compared to last year, combined with the depreciation of the US dollar, continues to exert upward pressure on the prices of imported goods. The significant rise in tariff revenue in April indicates that businesses and consumers will still bear the cost of tariffs [6]. - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation primarily due to a decline in service prices, but certain goods, such as entertainment products and appliances, have seen price increases. For instance, audio equipment prices rose by 8.8% [6][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that price increases typically occur 2-3 months after tariffs are fully implemented, indicating that the current inflation data may not yet reflect the full impact of the new tariffs [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is currently more focused on inflation risks rather than recession risks. The recent tariff reductions have lessened recession concerns but have not completely eliminated inflation risks, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9]. - The Fed has postponed its interest rate cut predictions to the fourth quarter, with expectations of a reduction of less than 50 basis points for the year. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a more aggressive cut if tariffs remained high [9]. Potential Risks - There are two main risks to the current predictions: potential changes in tariff policies that could reignite recession fears and weak demand leading to lower oil prices and service inflation, which could offset the inflationary pressures from tariffs [10].

瑞穗首席执行官Masahiro Kihara表示，由于特朗普政府的关税措施使商业规划更加不可预测，全球贸易 的不确定性导致该银行预测更为保守的前景。一天前，三井住友金融集团警告说，客户对交易和投资变 得谨慎起来，它拨出了900亿日元以应对经济衰退风险。 这些日本银行在过去一年中实现了创纪录的利润，这得益于人们期待已久的日本央行加息，以及出售所 持客户公司股票带来的收益。但日本依赖贸易的经济出现下滑的风险，给进一步加息的前景蒙上了阴 影，并给股价带来压力。 MUFG在一份报告中表示，"高度不确定性"使得预测贸易政策对经济、商业环境和业绩的影响具有挑战 性。该报告列出了从滞胀到对美元失去信任等一系列风险。 所有银行的净利润指引都低于分析师的平均预期，不过这对日本银行来说并不罕见，即使在经济稳定时 期，它们在设定年度目标时也往往很谨慎。 日本最大的几家银行预计，今年的利润将再创历史新高，并公布了回购股票的计划，尽管它们警告称， 贸易紧张局势可能会损害商业和经济增长。日本最大的银行三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)周四表示，截至 明年3月份的12个月，该公司净利润预计将增长7.5%，至2万亿日元(合137亿美元)。瑞穗金融 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various commodities. It suggests different investment strategies based on market conditions, such as being cautious with bonds, considering long positions in stock index futures, and taking long positions in gold futures [6][10][12]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 5 - year contract fell slightly. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. It is recommended to be cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 rising slightly, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell [8]. - **Analysis**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long positions in stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index improved [12]. - **Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and trade frictions are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to take long positions in gold futures on dips [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [14]. - **Analysis**: The real estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the current peak demand season may support prices. The valuation is low, and there are signs of a bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [16]. - **Analysis**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke from steel mills is weakening. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [18][19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Spot prices also showed some changes [21]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are concerns about manganese ore supply disruptions. It is recommended to consider long positions in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and exit short positions for silicon iron at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. There are various data and news in the energy market [23][24]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening high and then fluctuating lower. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The possibility of relaxed US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, but tariff agreements are beneficial for demand recovery. It is recommended to take long positions in the main fuel oil contract [27][28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure persists, but demand is expected to improve due to tariff expectations, and costs are rebounding. It is expected to be short - term bullish [30][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [32]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, but demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. Spot prices increased slightly, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Analysis**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [35][37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. Spot prices increased, and the basis was stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The adjustment of export policies and the upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a bullish trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor policy changes and price differences between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread increased [41]. - **Analysis**: The short - term upward repair of crude oil prices and positive sentiment are expected to drive PX prices to rebound. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to crude oil price changes and macro - policies [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased [42]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure and the expected improvement in costs are expected to drive PTA prices to rebound. It is recommended to operate in the low - price range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is slower than expected, and imports are reduced. It is expected that prices will have upward space. It is recommended to participate on dips and pay attention to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Demand improved slightly, and costs increased [44]. - **Analysis**: The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals and the support from costs are expected to drive short - fiber prices to adjust bullishly. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on dips and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Costs increased, and demand improved [45]. - **Analysis**: The increase in raw material prices and the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals are expected to drive bottle - chip prices to rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to cost price changes [45]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Production decreased, and inventory increased [46]. - **Analysis**: The market remains in a loose pattern, but the concentrated maintenance in May may lead to short - term adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. There are changes in production lines and market prices [47][48][49]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals. The tariff adjustment and the expected policy support may have an impact on market sentiment, but the actual repair degree needs to be observed [49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Production increased slightly, and inventory was at a neutral level [50]. - **Analysis**: The demand for caustic soda is limited, but the maintenance of some plants in May may provide some driving force. It is necessary to focus on plant operations and liquid chlorine prices [50][51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The tariff negotiation result gave some confidence, but the supply - demand situation is still loose [52]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound may be due to tariff news. It is necessary to pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption - stimulating policies [52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand situation is in surplus [54][55]. - **Analysis**: The decline in ore prices weakens the cost support, and the demand slows down. It is expected to run weakly [55]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. Spot prices decreased slightly [56]. - **Analysis**: The Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day moving average suppresses prices. The Sino - US negotiation results may lead to price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. There are changes in supply and demand [58][59]. - **Analysis**: The contradiction between the current shortage and the expected supply increase is expected to lead to a bearish - fluctuating trend [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply and demand situation is complex [60]. - **Analysis**: The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity after the repair of macro - sentiment [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Spot prices of polysilicon decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The demand in the industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is in the capacity - clearing cycle, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [61][62]. Soybean Oil/Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Spot prices also changed [63]. - **Analysis**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is strong, and it is recommended to consider out - of - the - money call options [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose, but the increase was limited by inventory. Domestic palm oil imports and consumption data are available [65][66]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67]. Rapeseed Meal/Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. There are changes in domestic supply and demand and inventory [68]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to consider long positions in rapeseed meal after a pull - back [68][69]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures fluctuated, and external cotton futures fell. There are various data and news [70][71]. - **Analysis**: The end of the peak season weakens demand, but the Sino - US negotiation results may support prices. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay attention to tariff policies [70][72][73]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures fluctuated at a low level, and external sugar futures rose. There are production and inventory data from Brazil and India [75]. - **Analysis**: The global trade friction affects demand. It is expected to run in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [75][76][77]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. There are signs of production reduction, and inventory is at a low level [78][79]. - **Analysis**: The low inventory and the expected production reduction may lead to a strong spot price. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pull - back [79][80]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [81]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand is in a short - term off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices rose. There are data on production, cost, and inventory [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may support prices. It is recommended to take profits and then wait and see [83][84]. Corn/Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. There are data on supply, demand, and inventory [85][86][87]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of corn is still there, but the bottom support is strong. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. Import data and spot price changes are available [88]. - **Analysis**: There is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the spot market has weak support for the futures price [88][89].

在早盘(5月9日)触及3274.75美元/盎司的日内低点后，金价受逢低买盘支撑强劲反弹，最终收涨0.63%至 3327.03美元/盎司。与之联动的美国COMEX黄金期货主力合约同步上扬0.60%，报收于3326美元/盎司， 双双录得技术性修正行情。 美联储货币政策动向继续主导市场情绪。继周三联邦公开市场委员会宣布维持基准利率不变后，多位联 储官员将于今日晚些时候就经济前景及政策路径发表公开讲话。此前美联储在议息声明中特别警示，当 前美国通胀回落进程遭遇阻碍，同时劳动力市场失衡风险有所抬头，这强化了市场对央行维持限制性货 币政策的预期。 贵金属板块整体呈现分化走势：现货白银小幅上涨0.10%至32.486美元/盎司，铂金现货微升0.08%至 982.48美元/盎司，钯金现货则以0.54%的涨幅领涨板块，收报978.30美元/盎司。分析人士认为，在宏观 经济不确定性犹存的背景下，贵金属市场或将延续区间震荡格局，投资者需密切关注即将公布的美联储 官员讲话及下周将出炉的美国CPI数据，以研判后续价格走向。 市场消息面呈现多空交织格局。据央视新闻最新报道，英美两国于当地时间8日就双边贸易协定取得突 破性进展，英国政府同 ...

二、会后声明指出，委员会将继续关注新公布的数据对美国经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险，委员会将随时准备好把货币政策立 场调整成适合的情况。 三、鲍威尔在会后发布会中表示，他认为就业市场表现良好，通胀虽高于目标，但仍处于相对低位，并预期2025年一季度收缩的GDP数据未来可能上修；不 过，他认为关税可能导致更高的通胀和更低的增长，从而增加经济的不确定性，同时不排除这种影响更加持久的可能性。鲍威尔表示，目前美联储没有必要 急于降息，同时表示特朗普总统的施压不会影响委员会的职责。 投资启示 美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国3月整体CPI同比下行至2.4%，核心通胀同比下行至2.8%，4月新增非农就业17.7万人，失业率维持在4.2%，显示美国经济和 劳动力市场较为稳健，但美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国2025年一季度实际GDP环比年化下降0.3%，为2022年二季度以来首次收缩。叠加美国与各国的 关税谈判迄今尚无明确的进展，美国经济或仍面临衰退风险，美联储在货币政策上或陷入两难抉择。 美联储议息会议核心要点 美东时间5月7日，美联储5月会议维持政策利率不变，结果出台后，资本市场反应温和：美股三大指数 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/5/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/5/7 | 3391.69 | 33. 04 | 3399.90 | 33. 26 | 801.04 | 8252. 00 | 798. 95 | 8238.00 | | (本表数 | | | ...

高盛：由于供过于求、经济衰退风险高企等因素，2025年央行的黄金购买量仍将强劲，预计黄金（价 格）将继续超过白银。 ...