Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - NATO summit increases geopolitical risks and weakens the US dollar, supporting the strength of London gold above $3300 per ounce, while the strong rise of the Chinese stock market makes silver with stronger industrial attributes outperform gold. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - In April, Trump's tariff measures caused a shock in the global financial market, pushing up the gold price. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Quotes - NATO summit agreements increase geopolitical risks and weaken the US dollar index to a low of 97.3 for the year. Safe - haven demand and currency factors support London gold above $3300 per ounce, and silver outperforms gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary June PMI values in Europe and the US, the Fed Chairman's congressional testimony, the May PCE inflation in the US, and the development of the Middle East situation [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Quotes - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a shock in the global financial market, pushing the gold price to break through $3500 per ounce. Although the gold price has corrected from its high due to the fading emotional impact and the marginal improvement of global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.05 | 777.64 | 772.42 | 777.59 | 0.20% | 412,622 | - 3795 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,749 | 8,827 | 8,689 | 8,821 | 0.82% | 883,880 | 12,149 | | Gold T + D | 771.68 | 773.31 | 767.65 | 773.26 | 0.20% | 211,684 | 1,818 | | Silver T + D | 8,698 | 8,777 | 8,641 | 8,773 | 0.86% | 3,182,526 | 54,730 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump welcomes the quick end of the Israel - Iran war and may hold talks with Iranian officials next week, while the US has not given up on extreme pressure on Iran but may relax law enforcement. The IAEA Director - General emphasizes the need for IAEA personnel to return to Iranian nuclear facilities for assessment [17]. - Fed Chairman Powell believes that Trump's tariff plan may only cause a one - time price increase, but the risk of more persistent inflation is significant, making the Fed cautious about further interest rate cuts, highlighting the difference between Powell and Trump [17]. - Trump considers providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine and hopes Putin will end the war. He had a 50 - minute meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit [17].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.5% and the S&P 500 down 0.22% [1] - Mid to long-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.38% and the 2-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 3.92% [2] - The Federal Reserve may consider easing monetary policy as early as July, according to Fed Governor Waller [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns about broader conflicts, particularly affecting global oil supply [3] Company Performance - Google shares fell over 3.6% due to the impact of an EU antitrust investigation [3] - Other major tech stocks also experienced declines: Meta down 1.9%, Amazon down 1.3%, and Microsoft down 0.6%, while Apple rose 2.2% [3] - The semiconductor sector faced pressure, with Nvidia down 1.1% and TSMC down nearly 2% due to negative news regarding chip export exemptions [4] - Kroger's stock increased by 9.8% after reporting year-over-year growth in Q1 and raising its revenue guidance for FY2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.9%, with JD.com down 3.3% and Baidu, Tencent, and Pinduoduo each down over 1% [6] - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined by 0.1% to 99.0 in May, marking a cumulative drop of 2.7% over the past six months [6] - The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for June reported -4.0, indicating continued contraction, with employment metrics at their lowest since May 2020 [6] Commodity Prices - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude down 0.28% to $74.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.23% to $77.01 per barrel [6] - Gold prices also faced downward pressure, with COMEX June futures down 0.64% to $3368.10 per ounce [7]

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with rising tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly, leading to a "slightly pessimistic and uncertain" outlook [1][2] - The ISM Services PMI for May unexpectedly fell to 49.9, below the expected 52, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since July 2023 [4][5] Employment and Labor Market - Employment conditions remain stagnant across most Federal Reserve districts, with many reporting unchanged job markets and some industries planning layoffs [2][5] - The upcoming employment report is critical, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 3.9% [7] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The Beige Book notes that prices are rising at a moderate pace, but businesses expect faster increases in costs and prices in the future, with some planning to pass tariff-related costs onto consumers [2][3] - The ISM Services PMI report highlights a sharp decline in new orders and a significant rise in the prices paid index, indicating dual pressures from tariffs on demand and inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are hedging against a volatile interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with expectations ranging from no rate cuts to aggressive cuts by 2025 [6][9] - The divergence in predictions from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reflects the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and potential Fed actions [6][9] Regulatory Changes - The Senate confirmed Michelle Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which may introduce new dynamics in financial regulation amidst rising economic uncertainty [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a pullback after encountering resistance, but still maintain a bullish outlook supported by short-term moving averages and a breakout trend line [1][4][10] Price Movement Summary - On June 3, gold opened at $3382.12 per ounce, reached a high of $3391.94, then fell to a low of $3333.13 before closing at $3353.20, resulting in a daily decline of $28.92 or 0.86% [1] - The price fluctuation for the day was $58.81 [1] Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index rebounded from a six-week low, exerting pressure on gold prices, particularly after the increase in job vacancies reported for April [3] - The increase in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% and ongoing geopolitical tensions are contributing to support for gold prices [4][7] - The market anticipates potential adjustments in U.S. employment data, which may influence gold price movements [6][8] Technical Analysis - Gold prices remain above the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [12] - The monthly chart shows that despite recent volatility, gold maintains a bullish trend above the May moving average [10] - The weekly chart indicates that gold is supported by the 10-week moving average and may target the $3500 level [13] Economic Outlook - The OECD has revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.6% from 2.2%, reflecting concerns over economic performance due to tariff increases [8] - Geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are expected to keep gold prices elevated in the medium to long term [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns, with expectations for gold to potentially reach $3500 or higher in the near future [1][3][8]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - Concerns over tariffs, particularly the potential increase in import duties on steel and aluminum by the Trump administration, have also contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold [3][5]. - Weak economic data from the U.S. has further supported gold prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the next 12 to 18 months [3][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices opened at $3298.53 per ounce, reaching a high of $3382.87 and closing at $3381.49, marking a daily increase of $89.56 or 2.72% [1]. - The recent breakout above the downward trendline has shifted the resistance into support, indicating a bullish outlook for gold [1][11]. - The monthly chart shows that gold has maintained its bullish trend despite recent volatility, with support from the 5-month moving average [9][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of continued high-level adjustments or further increases in price over the next one to two years [8][12]. - The article suggests that any pullbacks in gold prices should be viewed as buying opportunities, given the overall bullish trend and geopolitical uncertainties [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a triangular trend adjustment, with potential for future price increases despite recent fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Price Movement Summary - Gold prices opened the week at $3354.98, reached a high of $3356.39, and fell to a low of $3245.36, closing at $3291.93, down $65.77 or 1.96% from the previous week's close of $3357.70, with a weekly range of $112.34 [1][3]. - The price is supported by the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for a rebound [1][9]. Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index initially strengthened but later retreated, impacting gold prices [3]. - Concerns over international trade and a decrease in pessimism regarding the U.S. economy contributed to the recent price movements [3][7]. - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East, continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have been in a volatile adjustment phase without breaking below the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for continued wide-ranging fluctuations [8]. - The weekly chart shows that despite recent weakness, gold closed above the 10-week moving average, maintaining a bullish outlook [9]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is positioned above the expansion line, with potential to test resistance near $3500 [11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold price movements [5][7]. - The Federal Reserve's concerns about stagflation and economic recession risks may lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially declining before rebounding, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but still facing resistance from a downward trend line [1][3][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3287.32 per ounce, dropped to a low of $3245.36, then rose to a high of $3330.38, closing at $3317.46, with a daily range of $85.02 and a gain of $30.14, or 0.92% [1]. - The market anticipates that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the recent recovery pattern [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - Technical pressures and a U.S. court ruling against President Trump's tariffs initially pressured gold prices, but support from buying interest and concerns over stagflation and recession risks led to a rebound [3][7]. - The dollar index showed weakness, which typically supports gold prices, while U.S. Treasury yields had limited impact on gold [5][7]. Economic Indicators Summary - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. core PCE price index and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment, with a general outlook leaning towards initial bullishness followed by potential bearishness [5][12]. Technical Analysis Summary - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are in a volatile adjustment phase, maintaining above the May moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend if historical highs are not breached [10][12]. - Weekly charts show a rebound above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthened bullish momentum and potential for further gains towards $3500 [12]. - Daily charts reveal a bullish triangle pattern, suggesting that any further declines could be seen as buying opportunities [14].

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金十数据5月29日讯，美联储会议纪要提到，工作人员继续注意到围绕贸易政策和其他经济政策的大量 不确定性，现在认为预测的不确定性相对于过去20年的平均水平有所上升。实际经济活动的风险被认为 倾向于下行，工作人员认为，经济陷入衰退的可能性几乎与基线预测一样大。对2025年通胀预测的大幅 上调被认为是为了使围绕该年通胀预测的风险保持平衡。此后，美联储工作人员继续认为，围绕通胀预 测的风险偏向上行，最近一些通胀预期指标的上升，提高了通胀将比基线预测假设更持久的可能性。 美联储会议纪要：不确定性相对于过去20年的平均水平有所上升 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]