Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

Group 1 - Japan's recent trade agreement with the U.S. has reduced tariffs on goods, including automobiles, from 25% to 15%, alleviating some trade policy uncertainty [2] - The Japanese government maintains its overall assessment that the economy is recovering at a "moderate pace," despite the impact of U.S. tariffs on certain sectors [2] - A government official noted that since April, the export prices of cars to the U.S. have significantly decreased due to the implemented tariffs, although there have been no notable changes in export volume, manufacturing price index, or employment [2] - The government has downgraded its assessment of exports for the first time in a year, reflecting a slowdown in semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports [2][3] Group 2 - The government has revised its wording regarding domestic corporate goods prices, indicating that the growth rate is currently "slowing," compared to the previous assessment of "gradually rising" [3] - For private consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, the government maintains its view that it is "recovering" [4]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to announce his resignation by the end of August following the ruling coalition's defeat in the recent Upper House elections [1] - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost its majority in the Upper House, leading to a significant drop in Ishiba's cabinet approval ratings [1] - Calls for Ishiba's resignation have emerged within the LDP after the election results, indicating internal party pressure [1] Group 2 - The final vote count revealed that the ruling coalition lost more than half of its seats in the Upper House [2] - The unexpected rise of the yen is overshadowed by ongoing economic recession risks in Japan [2] - U.S. President Trump announced trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, as well as between the U.S. and the Philippines, which caused fluctuations in the yen's value [2]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production increased by 2% year-on-year to 516,200 tons, with a full-year production forecast of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase compared to the previous year [2][11] - Nickel production in Q2 2025 saw a significant decline of 99% year-on-year, totaling 300 tons, due to temporary shutdowns [3][12] - Iron ore production reached 70.3 million tons in Q2 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a full-year forecast of 263 million tons, reflecting a 1% increase [4][13] - Coking coal production increased by 5% year-on-year to 10.3 million tons in Q2 2025, while full-year production is expected to decrease by 19% to 36 million tons [5][14] - Thermal coal production rose by 8% year-on-year to 4.1 million tons in Q2 2025, with a full-year forecast of 15 million tons, a 2% decrease [6][15] Summary by Sections Copper - Q2 2025 copper production was 516,200 tons, up 2% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average realized price for copper was $4.43 per pound, down 3% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [19] Nickel - Q2 2025 nickel production was 300 tons, down 99% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Full-year nickel production forecast is 30,200 tons, a 63% decrease compared to the previous year [12] Iron Ore - Q2 2025 iron ore production was 70.3 million tons, up 2% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Average realized price for iron ore was $79.93 per wet ton, down 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [19] Coking Coal - Q2 2025 coking coal production was 10.3 million tons, up 5% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Average realized price for coking coal was $177.32 per ton, down 28% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter [19] Thermal Coal - Q2 2025 thermal coal production was 4.1 million tons, up 8% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [6] - Average realized price for thermal coal was $85.70 per ton, down 31% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [19] Major Projects - The Jansen project is progressing, with 68% completion of the JS1 project, and capital expenditure expected to rise to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion [16]

Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Impact - Trump revealed that the U.S. generated $25 billion in revenue from tariffs in June, primarily from the automotive, steel, aluminum, and some wood sectors [1] - The second round of tariffs initiated by Trump is expected to bring in more revenue after July 7 [1] - Trump has imposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on 24 countries and the EU, which is significantly higher than the previously proposed "reciprocal tariff" policy [3] Group 2: International Reactions and Negotiations - Brazil has initiated a three-step response to the 50% tariff, including negotiation and potential countermeasures, while the EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. goods if no agreement is reached [3] - Japan and Mexico are also looking to negotiate further with the U.S. regarding tariffs [3] - The U.S. has reached a tariff agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on U.S. exports while Indonesia maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The UN warns that Trump's tariff policy has caused significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to increased costs and supply interruptions, with a projected global economic growth rate drop from 2.8% to 2.3% [9] - Financial CEOs express concerns that the tariff policy may lead to rising inflation and further economic deterioration, despite recent profits exceeding expectations for major banks [11] - U.S. companies, particularly in the chemical, plastic, and alcohol sectors, face challenges from foreign retaliatory measures, with U.S. whiskey exports to the EU dropping by 20% from 2018 to 2021 due to tariffs [12] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates until there is more clarity on inflation trends, with several officials indicating no urgency to lower rates [18] - The tariffs are expected to exert upward pressure on consumer prices, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [18] - The overall economic uncertainty stemming from the tariff policies is influencing the Fed's approach to interest rates, with a cautious stance being adopted [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite fluctuating tariff-related news, the current trade developments align with expectations, with a projected 30% tariff on China and 10% on other regions, maintaining an effective tariff level around 12% [1] - Economic uncertainty persists, but some downward risks have been controlled earlier, leading to a reduced risk of recession by 2025 [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the stock market, particularly focusing on the financial sectors in the US and Europe [1] Group 2 - The company holds a neutral stance on government bonds globally, noting that while yields have risen and valuations improved, concerns remain due to rising US debt levels and ongoing inflation risks [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing will be less than currently reflected in the market [1] - The company continues to favor gold for portfolio diversification and holds a bearish view on the US dollar, favoring the euro and emerging market local currency bonds [1] Group 3 - Global crude oil supply is increasing, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put pressure on oil prices in 2025, prompting a neutral stance from the company [2] - The company emphasizes the need to monitor potential risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [2] - Overall, the company believes that the risks of cyclical economic downturns are largely controlled, while the sustainability of debt levels remains a key concern [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in market optimism, driven by a broad-based buying spree across various asset classes, despite underlying economic uncertainties and risks [1][4][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high for the first time since February, reflecting a strong recovery in investor sentiment [2][9]. - The index surged by 3.4% in the week, with major tech stocks (referred to as Mag7) leading the price movements [9]. - Junk bonds have risen for the fifth consecutive week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by approximately 10 basis points [12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite rising unemployment claims and a sluggish real estate market, bullish investors are focusing on signs of cooling inflation and improving consumer confidence [4][21]. - June consumer confidence in the U.S. reached a four-month high, although other economic data painted a less optimistic picture, including a significant drop in new home sales and consumer spending [21][23]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a notable return of retail investors and an increase in risk exposure among systematic investors, indicating a shift towards riskier assets [8]. - Market participants appear to be pricing in optimistic outcomes despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns [6][18]. Group 4: Cautionary Signals - Some market analysts express concerns about the sustainability of the current rally, citing potential risks if profit margins or employment data worsen [25][27]. - The options market is pricing in significant downside risks for popular funds, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors despite the recent market gains [27]. Group 5: Valuation Concerns - Some investment strategists, like Brent Schutte, are wary of the high valuations in the S&P 500 and prefer cheaper small and mid-cap stocks, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [28].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - NATO summit increases geopolitical risks and weakens the US dollar, supporting the strength of London gold above $3300 per ounce, while the strong rise of the Chinese stock market makes silver with stronger industrial attributes outperform gold. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - In April, Trump's tariff measures caused a shock in the global financial market, pushing up the gold price. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Quotes - NATO summit agreements increase geopolitical risks and weaken the US dollar index to a low of 97.3 for the year. Safe - haven demand and currency factors support London gold above $3300 per ounce, and silver outperforms gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary June PMI values in Europe and the US, the Fed Chairman's congressional testimony, the May PCE inflation in the US, and the development of the Middle East situation [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Quotes - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a shock in the global financial market, pushing the gold price to break through $3500 per ounce. Although the gold price has corrected from its high due to the fading emotional impact and the marginal improvement of global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.05 | 777.64 | 772.42 | 777.59 | 0.20% | 412,622 | - 3795 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,749 | 8,827 | 8,689 | 8,821 | 0.82% | 883,880 | 12,149 | | Gold T + D | 771.68 | 773.31 | 767.65 | 773.26 | 0.20% | 211,684 | 1,818 | | Silver T + D | 8,698 | 8,777 | 8,641 | 8,773 | 0.86% | 3,182,526 | 54,730 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump welcomes the quick end of the Israel - Iran war and may hold talks with Iranian officials next week, while the US has not given up on extreme pressure on Iran but may relax law enforcement. The IAEA Director - General emphasizes the need for IAEA personnel to return to Iranian nuclear facilities for assessment [17]. - Fed Chairman Powell believes that Trump's tariff plan may only cause a one - time price increase, but the risk of more persistent inflation is significant, making the Fed cautious about further interest rate cuts, highlighting the difference between Powell and Trump [17]. - Trump considers providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine and hopes Putin will end the war. He had a 50 - minute meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit [17].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.5% and the S&P 500 down 0.22% [1] - Mid to long-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.38% and the 2-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 3.92% [2] - The Federal Reserve may consider easing monetary policy as early as July, according to Fed Governor Waller [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns about broader conflicts, particularly affecting global oil supply [3] Company Performance - Google shares fell over 3.6% due to the impact of an EU antitrust investigation [3] - Other major tech stocks also experienced declines: Meta down 1.9%, Amazon down 1.3%, and Microsoft down 0.6%, while Apple rose 2.2% [3] - The semiconductor sector faced pressure, with Nvidia down 1.1% and TSMC down nearly 2% due to negative news regarding chip export exemptions [4] - Kroger's stock increased by 9.8% after reporting year-over-year growth in Q1 and raising its revenue guidance for FY2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.9%, with JD.com down 3.3% and Baidu, Tencent, and Pinduoduo each down over 1% [6] - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined by 0.1% to 99.0 in May, marking a cumulative drop of 2.7% over the past six months [6] - The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for June reported -4.0, indicating continued contraction, with employment metrics at their lowest since May 2020 [6] Commodity Prices - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude down 0.28% to $74.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.23% to $77.01 per barrel [6] - Gold prices also faced downward pressure, with COMEX June futures down 0.64% to $3368.10 per ounce [7]

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with rising tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly, leading to a "slightly pessimistic and uncertain" outlook [1][2] - The ISM Services PMI for May unexpectedly fell to 49.9, below the expected 52, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since July 2023 [4][5] Employment and Labor Market - Employment conditions remain stagnant across most Federal Reserve districts, with many reporting unchanged job markets and some industries planning layoffs [2][5] - The upcoming employment report is critical, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 3.9% [7] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The Beige Book notes that prices are rising at a moderate pace, but businesses expect faster increases in costs and prices in the future, with some planning to pass tariff-related costs onto consumers [2][3] - The ISM Services PMI report highlights a sharp decline in new orders and a significant rise in the prices paid index, indicating dual pressures from tariffs on demand and inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are hedging against a volatile interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with expectations ranging from no rate cuts to aggressive cuts by 2025 [6][9] - The divergence in predictions from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reflects the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and potential Fed actions [6][9] Regulatory Changes - The Senate confirmed Michelle Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which may introduce new dynamics in financial regulation amidst rising economic uncertainty [8][9]