洛克菲勒国际主席Ruchir Sharma表示，近来，"美国例外论终结论"突然成为热门话题。特朗普的政策、 美元走弱以及美股今年创下自1987年以来与国际竞争对手的最大表现差距，似乎都在佐证这一观点。 然而，令人意外的是，尽管华盛顿和中东局势动荡，美国股市仍在顽强攀升，债券价格亦同步上涨。市 场的表现似乎在暗示，美国并未衰落，而是全球其他地区正在迎头赶上。 这种市场韧性被许多人视为盲目乐观的结果，甚至有观点认为美股即将陷入"2025年的悲观周期"。但历 史经验表明，当市场与评论者的分歧如此之大时，往往是市场更接近真相。那么，市场究竟看到了什 么？ 年初时，市场曾担忧美国在人工智能领域的领先地位可能被DeepSeek超越，但这一论调如今已烟消云 散。美国AI股持续创下历史新高，全球十大AI平台中有八家来自美国，其中ChatGPT独占鳌头。 高估值背后的支撑 目前，美股估值仍处于历史高位，而数据显示，特朗普的政策尚未对通胀或经济增长产生实质性影响。 此前市场最担忧的是其对等关税政策可能推高通胀并抑制增长，但现实恰恰相反——通胀低于预期，经 济增长却高于共识预测。关税收入确实流入了美国财政部，但并未显著推高消费者价 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%, while the total market turnover was 16,231 billion yuan, a decrease of 163 billion yuan from the previous day [1][17]. Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector reached new highs, with major banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and others continuing to climb. The banking sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 16.94%, leading among 31 primary industries [3]. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened by purchasing 9.42 billion HKD due to the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate triggering the "weak side convertibility guarantee." This marked the first intervention since May 2023, resulting in a decrease in the banking system's liquidity to 164.098 billion HKD [4][6]. Hibor Rate Movements - Following the HKMA's intervention, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) saw a significant rise, with the overnight Hibor increasing from 0.02071% to 0.03750%, marking a daily increase of 1.688 basis points. The one-month Hibor also rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.96554% [4][6]. ETF Market Activity - The market saw significant inflows into several ETFs, particularly in the financial sector, with notable net inflows into the China A500 ETF and various Hong Kong financial ETFs. The total net inflow for the week into the China A500 ETF was 78.32 billion yuan [20][22]. U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased, with several officials indicating support for a rate cut in July. The upcoming economic data for June and July will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions [11][12][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].

受美国总统特朗普"解放日"政策影响，澳洲散户投资者正纷纷撤离美国市场，将资 金转向"稳定"经济 体。 （图片来源：News） 投资平台eToro的最新散户数据显示，这一趋势反映出全球经济不确定性加剧，37% 的澳洲投资者将全 球经济列为投资的最大威胁——这是自2022年第二季度以来的最高 纪录。 eToro对14个国家（含1000名澳洲投资者）的1万名散户调查显示，美国市场吸引力 锐减。 该平台董事总经理Robert Francis指出，特朗普政策与美股高估值叠加，使 散户对全球最大市场的投资 前景持怀疑态度。 "随着特朗普就职，人们开始意识到'美国例外论'已不如一两年前，这带来了大量 不确定性。" 从委内瑞拉移居悉尼的投资者Rayeiris Maduro Rondon认为，"美国例 外论"已进入"调整期"。 澳洲投资者正增加本土市场敞口。eToro数据显示，35%的澳洲散户对投资组合更谨 慎，28%感到焦 虑，但24%对市场波动持乐观态度，超过四分之一的投资者将10%以 内的回调视为"逢低买入"机会。 市场分析师Josh Gilbert表示："许多人将回调视为机会，这体现了对市场长期韧 性的信心，4月以来全 ...

在市场质疑美元稳定性的同时，欧元兑日元汇率的波幅相对于美元兑日元货币对的波动而言，正处于近 四年来的最平静水平。 "市场认为，在负面市场冲击中，美元兑日元的波动性将大于欧元兑日元，这与市场过去处理这些事件 的方式正好相反，"Brennan说。"如果真是这种想法，那就意味着市场认为欧元比美元更具避险功能。" 由于交易员因不可预测的美国政策风险而避开美元，欧元正在全球货币期权市场中扮演起更重要的角 色。 交易量出现了明显转变。根据美国存管信托和清算公司（DTCC）的数据，对比2024年最后五个月，今 年前五个月与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约中，约有15%至30%转向了欧元。还有迹象表明，欧元正被用 作避风港，这在传统上是美元的角色。 虽然在日交易额高达7.5万亿美元的外汇市场中，涉及美元的交易仍占主导地位，但这可能是美元作为 世界储备货币正面临更激烈竞争的早期证据。在美元经历多年来最大幅度的暴跌后，交易员们正在规避 它，而欧元似乎成了主要受益者，因为该地区的市场正受益于数十亿的政府刺激支出。 "如果我们正在进入一个欧洲资金流向更重要的环境，那么我们可能也正在进入一个由欧元货币对驱动 一切的环境，"法国巴黎银行的期权策 ...

在此市况下，施罗德已逐步减少对美股的集中配置，改为部署更加跨地域的资产配置策略。今年以来， 相对偏好欧洲市场，同时亦增持日本及新兴市场资产。与此策略一致，同时为美元的潜在下行做好准 备，并偏好欧元及以当地货币计价的新兴市场债券。 智通财经APP获悉，过去一个月，最受投资市场关注的消息是中美双方达成为期90天的互征关税暂停协 议。施罗德认为，这项降温措施有助于降低贸易突然中断及失业攀升的风险。因此，相信经济衰退的可 能性已显著降低，并据此上调对股票投资的观点，尤其看好美国与欧洲的金融板块。该板块正受益于收 益率曲线趋陡，且相对较少受到贸易相关风险的拖累。 施罗德还表示，除了短期的贸易发展外，整体的投资立场仍反映出地缘政治不确定性高企。特朗普政府 带来的体制颠覆，仍对"美国例外论"主题构成阴影。早在去年12月已提出的核心投资主题之一的"市场 分化"，迄今已成为今年的主导趋势。 在美国以外，通胀压力相对温和，倾向德国国债，并相对看淡美国国债。黄金仍是建议用于分散资产配 置的核心工具。至于能源板块，受益于供应持续增长，对其前景仍持谨慎甚至偏向负面的看法。同时， 因技术指标正显示转弱迹象，对美国信贷市场亦保持谨慎，尤其 ...

目前显然尚未达到"危机"程度。虽然美元计价全球原油价格自上周初已上涨约14%，但仍远低于1月峰 值，同比跌幅约7%。对欧洲而言，由于欧元兑美元汇率年内已升值12%，冲击更为温和——尽管美元 计价油价几乎收复年内全部失地，但欧元计价的布伦特原油2025年仍下跌12%，较上年同期低20%。 "对石油进口国而言，美元贬值提供了关键缓冲，既缓解了油价飙升的直接冲击，又限制了更广泛的经 济连锁反应，"联合信贷策略师Tobias Keller表示。若美元持续走弱，将有效降低能源价格波动对欧洲经 济的相对影响。 这种态势可能支撑欧洲经济今年相对美国的表现，并进一步瓦解近年来推动资本异常流向美国的"美国 例外论"叙事。更重要的是，若能源价格回落伴随美元持续疲软，欧洲央行将面临更大降息压力，以避 免通胀率远低于2%的政策目标。 尽管中东紧张局势再度引发能源价格震荡时，石油进口国难以完全免受冲击，但当前罕见的美元疲软周 期将显著缓解美国以外国家承受的压力。 国际原油多以美元计价，因此当油价飙升遇上美元持续走强时，欧洲等地区将承受双重打击。但今年美 元走弱产生了相反效果，正在缓和中东战事引发的油价上涨冲击。 最显著的变化是，美元在 ...

一年一度陆家嘴论坛前夕，橡树资本联合创始人和联席董事长霍华德·马克斯 在 接受 中国基 金报记者 独家采访时表示，债券市场投资者不喜欢关税政策造成的混乱，预计关税政策模糊 性难以消退。他认为，投资者适度降低对美国资产的配置是合理的。 霍华德·马克斯： 因为事态持续变化，所以它不可能完全消化。当我们说市场"已经定 价"时，指的是市场对关税最终结果的定价。但现实是，没有人能够准确预测六个月 以及 两 年后的关税政策。既然如此，市场怎么可能做到完全定价呢？事实上，关税政策刚刚宣布 时，股票和债券市场的反应都非常负面，随后股市却反弹。这是否意味着关税的影响已经被 市场忽略？还是说市场认为这些影响最终会是良性的？我们无法轻易下结论。 中国基金报： 美国股市在所谓的"大解放日"之后反弹。有人认为，这说明"美国例外论"并未 彻底衰落。一方面，美国仍然拥有强大的创新能力 ； 另一方面，它拥有"七巨头"这样盈利能 力极强的公司。你怎么看"美国例外论"？ 霍华德·马克斯： 谈论"美国例外论"彻底衰落可能并不恰当。过去80 年 到100年间，美国在 全球的卓越地位是由多方面因素共同造就的。创新能力是其中之一，还包括自由市场机制、 ...

【导读】霍华德·马克斯：全球投资者应充分理解中国务实的运作方式，信任中国的实践智慧 霍华德·马克斯：这一"警告"来自债券市场，该市场的投资者不喜欢关税政策造成的混乱。商业活动最害怕的就是不确定性，而现在的关税政策却充满了 变数——美国一会儿宣布加征关税，一会儿宣布取消，一会儿暂停，一会儿又恢复，一会儿又降低。政策反复无常，企业难以制定长期计划。进口商品的 成本上升，而企业如果在美国国内建设工厂，它又无法预测四年后的关税政策。四年后，关税会变得更高，还是会降低，抑或会被完全取消？企业家无从 判断。如果无法预判关税的最终水平，那么，任何关于建厂的决策都变得极其困难。这种不确定性是最大的风险。 中国基金报：美国债券市场已经完全消化关税政策的影响了吗？ 霍华德·马克斯：因为事态持续变化，所以它不可能完全消化。当我们说市场"已经定价"时，指的是市场对关税最终结果的定价。但现实是，没有人能够 准确预测六个月以及两年后的关税政策。既然如此，市场怎么可能做到完全定价呢？事实上，关税政策刚刚宣布时，股票和债券市场的反应都非常负面， 随后股市却反弹。这是否意味着关税的影响已经被市场忽略？还是说市场认为这些影响最终会是良性的？我们 ...

高达54%的基金经理认为覆盖全球除美国以外涵盖各大股票市场核心标的的"国际股票"将成为表 现最佳的资产类别，而单纯仅选择美国股票市场的基金经理仅占比23%。 点击蓝字，关注我们 智通财经 APP 获悉，美国银行 (Bank of America) 最新基金经理调查显示，不包括美国股票的全球股票市 场将在未来五年跑赢美国股市， 进一步印证全球范围的专业投资者们愈发认为美国股票市场长期以来对 于资金的绝对主导地位已非常接近尾声。 美银的这项最新调查显示，高达 54% 的基金经理认为覆盖全球除美国以外各大股票市场核心标的的 " 国 际股票" 将成为表现最佳的资产类别， 而单纯仅选择美国股票市场的基金经理仅占比 23%。认为黄金这 一大宗商品能获得最高投资回报的有大约 13%，看好债券类资产的仅 5%。 在这份美银基金经理调查的语境里，"国际股票 (international stocks)" 专指 " 美国市场以外的股票市场 "。也就是说，它涵盖了发达市场与新兴市场：例如欧洲 (英国、法国、德国、意大利等)、日本、加拿 大、澳大利亚、新加坡等发达市场股票，以及中国 A 股与港股、韩国、中国台湾、印度、巴西、南非、 ...