Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is mainly driven by raw materials, and although it is boosted by the short - term rebound of coking coal, there is limited room for a substantial increase in coking coal due to the overall supply - demand imbalance in the raw material market and the approaching traditional off - season [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to rebound along with industrial products, but the rebound amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal, and the trend may not be strong, with decreasing volatility [21]. - Coking coal has a short - term rebound demand, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Coke has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions, but lacks the conditions for bottom - fishing [3][36]. - The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is weakening, but the cost side is bearish. It is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The further decline of the disc price requires price cuts by alkali plants or rapid inventory accumulation [69][70]. - The glass market has weak short - term fundamentals and cost support. Although the valuation is relatively low, it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The price of steel is mainly affected by raw materials. The short - term rebound of coking coal boosts steel prices, but in the traditional off - season with a tendency of decreasing hot metal and an overall oversupply of raw materials, coking coal lacks a substantial upward driving force [3]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2951, 2952, and 2959 respectively, showing different changes compared with the previous day. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3075, 3072, and 3077 respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Market sentiment has slightly recovered. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened month - on - month, with increased shipments and a possible shift from de - stocking to slight inventory accumulation. The iron ore price is expected to rebound with industrial products, but the amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal [21]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 665, 646.5, and 701 respectively. The daily average hot metal output in the week of May 30, 2025, was 241.91, showing a week - on - week decrease [22][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Some mines have reduced production, but large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The downstream coking profit is damaged, and the raw material replenishment willingness is poor. The import window is expected to be difficult to open, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been frequently declining [36]. - **Coke**: Steel mills in Tangshan have initiated a third - round price cut. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, but the cost support is loose, and it is not suitable for bottom - fishing [36]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 813, and the coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 56. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1315, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port) was - 27 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure on the supply side is small. However, the cost side is bearish, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 284, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 [58][59]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The soda ash production has recovered, and the overall maintenance volume from May to June is lower than expected. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The demand is stable, and the photovoltaic sector tends to return to an oversupply pattern [69][70]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1203, and 1196 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The spot market of glass remains weak, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by nearly 10%. The disc price is approaching the level of full - industry chain losses, and it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1075, 963, and 1018 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [95].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Terminal enterprises generally adopt a defensive strategy of low - inventory operation, and the probability of enterprises reducing production or stopping work during the May Day holiday is still high. The industry may face negative feedback in May, and the upward driving force of raw material varieties is not strong [1][6] - In the short term, PTA and short - fiber are likely to maintain a weak shock within a range. The finished product inventory is generally high, the raw material inventory is extremely low, and manufacturers' willingness to replenish inventory is very low [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Strategy Overview - The terminal is in the inventory accumulation stage. Some enterprises may increase the holiday time during the May Day holiday. The high - level operation of downstream enterprises may face negative feedback pressure [6] 3.2 Terminal Inventory Hoarding意愿不高, Negative Feedback May Still Have Room to Ferment - **Tariff Impact**: Export - oriented enterprises are actively responding to tariffs. Direct US orders are basically stagnant. Enterprises are looking for alternative markets such as South America, but the short - term effect is limited. Non - US orders, mainly from Southeast Asia, are relatively good. If tariffs do not change, enterprises may increase holidays and reduce production during the May Day holiday. Upstream chemical fiber factories may take further self - discipline measures [1][7][8] - **Start - up Situation**: Most enterprises are considering increasing holiday time during the May Day holiday depending on inventory. If inventory can be balanced, some enterprises may not take long holidays. Some enterprises are still hesitating due to existing orders. Some enterprises report that the accounts receivable period has become longer [1][9] - **Inventory and Replenishment**: Without significant changes in oil prices, PTA and short - fiber are unlikely to break through previous highs and may test resistance levels, maintaining a weak shock within a range. Finished product inventory is high, raw material inventory is extremely low, and manufacturers' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Some enterprises are hesitant to hoard goods due to low prices. Enterprises with sufficient funds may make small - scale purchases if sales improve or inventory pressure eases [1][9] 3.3 Enterprise Specific Situations and Demands - **Enterprise 1 (Fabric Export Factory)**: The enterprise has a 50 - 60% start - up rate. It is mainly export - oriented, with a low proportion of direct sales to the US. It is cautious about raw material inventory and focuses on sales. It exports mainly to Southeast Asian garment factories. It will not take holidays during the May Day holiday and will not hoard goods [11][12] - **Enterprise 2 (Curtain Export Manufacturer)**: The enterprise has a full start - up rate but a large inventory of about $15 million. It is actively looking for new processing locations and markets and plans to take more holidays during the May Day holiday. It is considering relocating to Southeast Asia or looking for contract manufacturers in Egypt [13][14] - **Enterprise 3 (Fabric Trader)**: The enterprise is facing a 245% top - level tariff on its export products. It can avoid taxes by under - reporting prices and is looking for contract manufacturers in Southeast Asia and Egypt. It has the idea of shifting to the domestic market but has not implemented it yet. It has low inventory and low inventory - building willingness [15] - **Enterprise 4 (Home Textile Exporter)**: The enterprise's US orders are basically stagnant, while Russian orders are good. It has learned that the start - up rate of local dyeing factories has decreased [16][19] - **Enterprise 5 (Warp - knitting Factory)**: The enterprise has a 60% start - up rate. It is cautious about stopping production due to output and tax payment requirements. It may take more holidays during the May Day holiday depending on inventory. It had inventory losses before and currently maintains a just - in - time inventory strategy. The finished product inventory is high, and the sales volume has decreased by half [20][21][24] - **Enterprise 6 (Circular Knitting Factory)**: The enterprise has a 90% start - up rate. It is less affected by tariffs, with 60% of its products for domestic sales. It has low inventory - building willingness and may consider replenishing inventory when prices are right. The downstream orders are few, and the profit is low [25][26] - **Enterprise 7 (Texturing Factory)**: One - third of the enterprise's texturing machines are shut down, and circular knitting machines are almost fully operational. It is hesitant to reduce production after the May Day holiday. It has high - cost raw material inventory and will adopt a strategy of short - term inventory replenishment [28][29] - **Enterprise 8 (Texturing Factory)**: The enterprise's texturing machines are fully operational after cleaning up inventory. It is uncertain whether to increase holidays after the May Day holiday. It has no intention to hoard inventory currently. The downstream orders are poor, and some customers will stop production during the May Day holiday [30]

Group 1 - The core concept of public policy is a set of interconnected decisions made by public organizations in specific contexts, which includes value preferences, action goals, and governance tools [1] - Policy feedback theory emphasizes that policies not only result from political systems but also reshape them, focusing on the dynamic interplay between policy and politics [2] - The theory identifies two types of feedback: positive feedback, which maintains or expands the original policy trajectory, and negative feedback, which leads to adjustments or termination of policies [2] Group 2 - The implementation of policies can lead to self-reinforcing effects, where positive feedback creates a favorable policy image, prompting decision-makers to refine and expand existing policies [2] - The duration of a policy's implementation enhances its anchoring effect, leading to path dependence that makes alternative governance models difficult to adopt [2] - In contrast, if negative feedback dominates, it can result in diminishing returns, prompting the exploration of new governance models [2] Group 3 - Decision-makers must continuously improve policy design and promote governance innovation through experimental approaches, especially when faced with anomalies that threaten normal governance [3] - The accumulation of persistent anomalies necessitates adjustments to existing policy routes, potentially undermining the coherence and accuracy of the original paradigm [3] Group 4 - To maintain the legitimacy of public governance, decision-makers should be sensitive to feedback effects and adjust policy goals or methods based on past experiences and new information [4] - Policy formulation typically involves selecting four variables: policy ideology, policy goals, policy tools, and standard settings, with adjustments at the operational level being more straightforward than those at the value level [4] - When a governance model encounters numerous anomalies, decision-makers should remain open to policy experimentation and gather new consensus through social learning to adjust policy routes effectively [4]