Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for China to adopt a more cooperative approach in trade relations, particularly with the United States, while highlighting the complexities and underlying issues of the current trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Cooperation - Singapore's Minister Vivian Balakrishnan suggests that China should learn to "tolerate" trade friction and avoid a tit-for-tat approach, advocating for building bridges and seeking cooperation to mitigate protectionism [1][2]. - The article emphasizes that the trade imbalance is not initiated by China but is a result of systematic containment strategies from the U.S., including tariffs and technology restrictions [1][2]. Group 2: Singapore's Position and Concerns - Singapore, heavily reliant on global trade, is concerned about international order instability and has benefited from maintaining a balance between China and the U.S. [4]. - The article points out that Singapore's attempts to act as a mediator often lean towards Western perspectives, raising questions about the impartiality of its stance [5]. Group 3: Divergent Views on Multilateralism - There is a fundamental difference in the understanding of multilateralism between Singapore and China, with Singapore favoring actions within a U.S.-defined framework, while China advocates for equality and mutual benefit among nations [7]. - The article notes that Singapore fears a "leadership vacuum" in global order, whereas China views multipolarity as an inevitable trend in global development [7]. Group 4: China's Stance and Principles - China maintains that its development path is self-determined and emphasizes two non-negotiable principles: the right to develop independently and the defense of core interests [8][12]. - The article argues that promoting cooperation should involve addressing the actions of the party that disrupts dialogue, rather than placing the burden solely on China to concede [10]. Group 5: Conclusion on International Relations - The article concludes that the world requires mutual respect and equal dialogue rather than unilateral concessions, suggesting that a balanced international order will emerge when each country focuses on its responsibilities [16].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In October, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.0%, down from 49.8% in September[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.1, compared to the previous value of 50.0[1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI decline is attributed to intensified trade frictions, with both supply and demand indices showing significant drops[2] - The production index fell to 49.7% (-2.2 percentage points), while the new orders index decreased to 48.8% (-0.9 percentage points)[2] - New export orders index dropped to 45.9% (-1.9 percentage points), indicating weakened external demand[2] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Construction Sector - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated to specific projects, contributing to an overall investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, including both new and old infrastructure and high-end manufacturing[2] - The construction sector's business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, the highest since January, reflecting improved expectations due to policy support[3] Group 4: Price Indices and Industry Performance - The main raw material purchase price index was at 52.5% (-0.7 percentage points), while the factory price index was at 47.5% (-0.7 percentage points), both showing a decline for two consecutive months[2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.2% (-1.7 percentage points), and the consumer goods industry PMI at 50.1% (-0.5 percentage points), indicating a general downturn across major industries[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter in Q3, indicating a potential recovery in operations next year [2][10]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecast due to challenges from new factory ramp-up and trade friction, projecting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.81, 3.42, and 3.94 yuan respectively [3][11]. - The target price is set at 67.44 yuan based on a 24x PE valuation for 2025 [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 20,114 in 2023 to 31,127 in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 9.9% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,200 million yuan in 2023 to 4,600 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 15.2% in 2027 [4][13]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 22.7% in 2025, improving to 25.4% by 2027 [4][13]. Operational Insights - The company faced challenges in Q3 with a 0.34% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 20.73% drop in net profit attributable to the parent company [10]. - Despite these challenges, the company is actively expanding its customer base to mitigate the impact of declining orders from existing clients [10]. - The report highlights that the company’s operational quality remains stable, with a significant net cash from operating activities of 37.63 billion yuan, approximately 1.55 times its profit for the same period [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is recognized as a leading global manufacturer of sports shoes, benefiting from strong customer relationships, scale, and innovation capabilities [10]. - The report anticipates a recovery in operations starting next year, with old customer orders expected to gradually resume and new factory efficiencies improving [10].

来源：21世纪经济报道 肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 如果叠加这段时间美国失业率的数据，那么可能很容易理解美联储此次降息决议背后的动机。根据美国劳工部统计，目前美国最新的失业 率是4.3%，前值4.2%，再前值4.1%。上升的失业率无疑触发了美联储的货币政策调控机制，毕竟实现最充分就业、保持物价稳定、促进 经济增长和维持国际收支平衡，是历任美联储主席"坚定不移"的目标。 虽然从博弈论角度来说，在美国发起的贸易摩擦和美国政府"关门"对经济增长影响向复杂化和长期化演绎的大背景下，视经济数据表现而 推进渐缓式降息策略，是美联储当前的较优解。但在白宫的强力干预之下，明年FOMC票委构成正在发生微妙的变化，美联储独立性受到 侵蚀或已不可避免。依赖专业数据对美联储货币政策走向进行识别的"惯性"恐怕将不再成立。以此次降息幅度选择为例，现任白宫经济顾 问委员会主席、美联储理事米兰（由特朗普提名）就公开表达了反对意见，认为25个基点的降息完全不够，美联储应该降息50个基点。而 随着明年5月鲍威尔的离任，美国利率水平走向或将更难预见。 但目前这种不确定性将很大可能体现在美联储降息的幅度和频次上。整体来看，美 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on October 29, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% [2] - The rationale behind the rate cut includes rising inflation rates and increased uncertainty in economic prospects, with a focus on achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term [2][3] - The latest core inflation (PCE) in the U.S. is reported at 2.7%, showing an upward trend from previous values of 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.3% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter was -0.6%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022, while the second quarter saw a growth of 3.8%, which is still concerning compared to historical data [3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, up from 4.2% and 4.1% in previous months, triggering the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment mechanisms [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised due to political pressures, with changes in the FOMC voting committee composition expected next year [4] - The current trend indicates a likelihood of global interest rates declining, as evidenced by the European Central Bank's continuous rate cuts since June of the previous year [4] Group 4 - Japan's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite rising core CPI, indicating that trade tensions may have a more significant impact on economic growth than inflation and employment [5] - Global central banks are increasingly concerned about economic growth uncertainties, reflected in fluctuations in international gold prices and long-term bond sell-offs [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive rate cut to address economic weakness and trade tensions with the U.S. [1] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, primarily due to declines in exports and weak business investment [1] - The Bank of Canada expects inflation pressures to ease in the coming months, maintaining the inflation rate near the 2% target, and has revised its inflation forecast for 2025 down to 2.0% from 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Despite the rate cut, the Canadian dollar unexpectedly strengthened against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/CAD exchange rate dropping to approximately 1.3893, the lowest level since September 25 [2] - The Bank of Canada indicated that the current policy rate is considered appropriate if inflation and economic activity develop as expected, suggesting that the rate cut may signal the end of the easing cycle [2] - The Bank of Canada projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.6% in 2027, with trade friction and weak external demand continuing to suppress Canadian exports and manufacturing activity [2]

【导读】加拿大央行降息25个基点至2.25%，符合市场预期 大家好！一起来关注海外央行降息动态。 10月29日晚间，加拿大央行（BoC）宣布，将政策利率下调25个基点至2.25%。 今年1月份，加拿大央行首次发布经济预测：预计第三季度GDP环比增长0.5%，第四季度增长1%；将2025年GDP增速下调至1.2%，预计2026年GDP增长 1%；下调2025年CPI增速预期至2%，预计2026年和2027年CPI增长2.1%。 与此同时，加拿大央行将今明两年的经济增速预期从1.8%分别下调至1.2%和1.1%，理由是美国贸易政策影响。加拿大央行预估2025年通胀为2%，2026年 约为2.1%。由于美国贸易政策持续不可预测，可能的结果范围仍然比平时更宽。 加拿大央行下一次宣布隔夜利率目标的预定日期是2025年12月10日，下一份货币政策报告（MPR）将于2026年1月28日发布。 消息公布后，美元兑加元短线走低。 加拿大央行表示，此次降息基于经济疲软态势，同时预期通胀将维持在2%目标附近。 加拿大劳动力市场持续疲软，经济过剩产能预计将逐步消化。核心通胀指标顽固维持在3%左右，但更广泛的指标显示潜在通胀约为2.5 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the complexity of the external economic landscape in 2026, focusing on three main issues: persistent geopolitical conflicts, political conservatism in major economies leading to trade frictions, and the complexities of monetary policy [3][4]. Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, present structural pressures that may lead to increased volatility in the global economy [3]. - Key geopolitical risk points include the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, which contribute to a non-linear economic outlook [3]. Political Conservatism and Trade Frictions - The rise of conservative governments in major economies like the U.S. and Japan is shifting policies towards economic security and nationalism, resulting in ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3][4]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deepening, moving towards a "China + N" model, which may impact trade dynamics significantly [3]. Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2025 and 1-2 cuts in 2026, which may lower financing costs but also face constraints from structural inflation driven by geopolitical and trade issues [3][4]. Global Economic Growth Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to remain around 3%, with emerging markets being the primary growth drivers due to "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" investments [4]. - Developed economies are expected to experience moderate growth, with the U.S. economy supported by interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while Japan and the EU maintain stable growth [4]. Impact on China - Specific external variables, particularly U.S. policies, are expected to impact China's trade and technology sectors, with tariffs likely to remain at a normalized level of around 30% [4][5]. - China's exports may face disruptions from both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with potential impacts on overall export scale estimated at 3.0% under moderate scenarios and up to 10.6% in extreme cases [5]. Opportunities and Challenges for China - External pressures may accelerate China's progress towards technological self-sufficiency and high-end manufacturing [5]. - However, challenges include normalized tariffs, increased trade barriers, and the risk of de-Chinaization in global supply chains, alongside the pressures of technological restrictions [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 14.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.11%, despite profit growth being limited due to tariffs and other factors [3][9]. - The company's overseas production capacity is gradually coming online, enhancing its resilience against regional trade friction risks, indicating a clear improvement in operational conditions [3][9]. - The company focuses on user needs by innovating products to enhance smart and efficient meeting experiences, continuously developing comprehensive meeting room solutions [9]. - The cloud office terminal segment achieved revenue of 262 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.55% [9]. - The company has introduced new wired headset products to enrich its product matrix, optimizing performance across various dimensions to meet diverse business office needs [9]. - The company has established a positive cycle in technology research and development, product creation, and channel reuse, leading to enhanced management capabilities [9]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company plans to launch new product series to solidify its market leadership and enhance its product line [9]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.958 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.16% [3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.648 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.11%, alongside a net profit of 718 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.91% [3][9]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 2.685 billion, 3.142 billion, and 3.710 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1%, 17%, and 18% [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors in trade frictions, stock index may return to the upward channel. Under the circumstances of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, the adjustment space of stock index is expected to be limited, and the strategy is to go long on stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - The initial consensus between China and the US has improved market risk appetite, suppressing precious metal prices. However, factors such as the upcoming Fed rate cut and the ongoing US government shutdown still support the gold price, so the short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The London lease rate has dropped significantly, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [1]. - The short - term prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as improved macro - sentiment, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and limited industrial - side drivers [1]. - The short - term prices of some agricultural products, energy, and chemical products are also affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations, showing different trends of fluctuation, rise, or fall [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - Stock Index: With the alleviation of trade frictions, it may return to the upward channel. Adjustment space is limited under policy and liquidity support. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank's interest - rate risk reminder suppresses upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: Market risk appetite improvement suppresses price, but Fed rate cut and government shutdown support it. Short - term price may fluctuate [1]. - Silver: London lease rate drop leads to volatile adjustment [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade friction alleviation and approaching Fed meeting improve risk appetite, high price suppresses demand, short - term price may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: Macro - sentiment is good, but industrial - side drivers are limited, price may fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Domestic production capacity is released, output and inventory increase, weak fundamentals pressure spot price, focus on cost support [1]. - Zinc: LME zinc 0 - 3 spread hits a record high, export expectation strengthens, short - term Shanghai zinc may maintain high level [1]. - Nickel: US inflation data and trade situation affect it. Under the RKAB policy, short - term price may be macro - dominated and fluctuate strongly, but high inventory still suppresses it [1]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment improves, steel mills' price - holding operations increase. Short - term futures may rebound in a volatile way, and short - term operation is recommended [1]. - Tin: Macro - sentiment improves and semiconductor sector rebounds. Short - term price may be affected by macro - sentiment and fluctuate strongly [1]. Industrial Metals - TV Silicon: Northwest capacity resumes production, southwest start - up is weaker than before, and the impact of dry season weakens [1]. - Polysilicon: October production is expected to increase unexpectedly, and there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: New energy vehicle peak season is coming, energy storage demand is strong, and overall demand is large although supply production increases [1]. - Steel Products: The industrial drive of rebar and hot - rolled coil is not clear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but commodity sentiment is good, and far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, direct demand is good, and macro - factors are beneficial [1]. - Glass: Supply surplus pressure is large, and price is under pressure [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, with large supply surplus pressure and pressured price [1]. - Coking Coal: It challenges the previous high, but there is uncertainty in breaking through, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Coke: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is an expectation of B50 implementation in Indonesia next year, but high inventory in Malaysia in September and expected inventory accumulation in October put pressure on the price. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting may bring new guidance. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but there is a lack of new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian relations puts pressure on the price. Domestic rapeseed is in short supply, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: The contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit makes the new - year cotton demand uncertain. The downside space of the futures price is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - Sugar: Typhoons affect sugarcane harvest, and there is seasonal upward momentum in the short - term. However, good growth conditions in the south may limit the rebound space after new sugar is listed [1]. - Corn: North - south port inventories are low, short - term production area supply decreases, and the north - port price is firm. There is expected selling pressure in the future, but the downside space is limited [1]. - Soybean Meal: Under the expectation of Sino - US talks, the US market rises strongly. The domestic market has low valuation and is expected to rebound. Pay attention to policies and weather [1]. - Pulp: The trading logic is related to old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals decline, but the spot price is firm. It is not recommended to short after the futures price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pigs: The spot price stabilizes, but the futures price is at a premium. Wait for changes in slaughter volume and weight. Short - term price may fluctuate [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, geopolitical speculation cools down, and the US softens its attitude towards China's tariffs. Price may fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, price may fluctuate [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The probability of "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Raw material cost support is strong, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the commodity market atmosphere is positive. It is recommended to go long [1]. - BR Rubber: Crude oil weakens, cost support of butadiene drops, supply is loose, and the main price is continuously adjusted down [1]. - PTA: The news of "anti - involution" policy and device problems drive the price up [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Crude oil price drops, coal price rises, and the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol strengthens slightly [1]. - Short - Fiber: Follows the cost of PTA, and the basis strengthens with the rise of PTA price [1]. - Styrene: Asian benzene price is weak, device operation rate drops, and profit decreases [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - Other Chemicals: Some chemicals have different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand changes, and policy impacts [1]. Others - Container Shipping (European Line): The price has fallen to a low level, may rebound, and is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].