编辑：[太阳] 这轮风波的火药桶不在中国，也不在关税本身，而在欧洲自己先炸了。2月初法国突然提出要对中国商 品一律加征30%关税，还打算压低欧元来转嫁压力——说白了就是想把难题推出去。 可话音刚落，德国、荷兰这些自家兄弟立马跳出来反对。欧盟还没对外出招，内部就吵翻了天。接下 来，是硬推还是内耗到底？欧洲自己都还没统一答案。 欧洲先吵起来了 为什么法国这么急？原因其实不复杂。过去几年，欧洲制造业压力越来越大，特别是汽车、新能源和相 关产业，面对来自亚洲的竞争，法国企业感觉吃力。 数据摆在那里，中欧贸易差额不断扩大，法国国内工会、企业和政界都在喊"守住工业"。在这种背景 下，埃马纽埃尔·马克龙希望通过强硬方案给国内一个交代，也想把欧洲重新拉到一个统一立场上。 但问题来了，欧洲不是一个声音。法国想筑墙，德国却在算账。就在安特卫普的工业峰会上，德国总理 弗里德里希·默茨当场泼了一盆冷水。他的意思很直接：欧洲的问题不完全来自外部，而是内部效率 低、审批慢、产业转型慢。如果自己动作慢，再高的关税也救不了产业。 结果就是欧洲内部立刻出现分裂。芬兰、西班牙、荷兰等国家陆续表示反对。大家的逻辑差不多：现在 欧洲经济本来就慢，如 ...

然而，正当法国一边挥舞着加税的大旗时，中方迅速做出了回应。一个名为玉渊潭天的声明直接公布了 三大反制措施，迅速把法国置于了一个极为尴尬的境地。首先，如果法国的提议成为现实，中国将对法 国葡萄酒实施反制；其次，中方还将对法国展开反歧视调查；最后，中方将采取对等关税这一措施，回 应法国的加税行为。这三招虽然暂时还只是设想，但其潜在威力不容小觑。消息一出，法国众多依赖中 国市场的企业股价应声下跌，法国的干邑酒业、君度集团、保乐力加等知名酒企的股价纷纷暴跌。尤其 是那些深度依赖中国市场的企业，更加感受到了中方反制的压力。一旦反制措施落实，这些企业的损失 只会愈加严重。 股市震荡不仅让法国企业惶恐，法国政府也立刻感受到了来自市场的强烈反馈。为了迅速平息事态，政 府发言人第一时间出来澄清，反复强调这份报告仅是咨询机构的建议，尚未被政府采纳，尽力撇清责 任。然而，马克龙的态度已经发生了剧烈变化，形势的急剧逆转让他不得不迅速投降，他的反应速度堪 称急转弯。 被中国市场逐渐淘汰的危险。这对法国经济来说，无疑是雪上加霜。 目前，法国的经济正处于艰难时 刻，民众对马克龙政府的不满情绪不断上升。如果此时法国仍然坚持与中方对抗，挑起全 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The financial market in 2026 is characterized by a rare interplay of political pressure and economic adjustments, with trade rhetoric and geopolitical tensions remaining active [1] - Inflation has slowed down, prompting renewed discussions on interest rate directions globally, influenced by various macroeconomic factors rather than a single mainstream narrative [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical developments, particularly tensions surrounding Greenland and U.S. trade policies, are significantly impacting risk appetite and commodity pricing, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The Middle East's situation continues to affect energy market dynamics, with ongoing supply shock risks keeping the oil market on alert despite recent stability [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation rates have decreased from 3% to approximately 2.7% since Q4 2025, influencing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Differentiated monetary policies among central banks are shaping market behaviors, with some countries adopting easing measures while others maintain a neutral stance due to domestic growth constraints [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to easing geopolitical risks and concerns over supply surplus, with prices fluctuating within a range despite structural supply-demand imbalances [6][8] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are facing resistance near $61, with key support levels around $58, influenced by moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels [8] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been declining, influenced by positive U.S. non-farm data and the Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts, while the European Central Bank appears reluctant to lower rates further [9][11] - Current technical indicators suggest that the EUR/USD is testing significant resistance levels, with potential support around $1.17, indicating a cautious trading environment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch court has initiated a formal investigation into Nexperia, a semiconductor company controlled by a Chinese firm, while maintaining existing temporary restrictions due to concerns over management behavior and potential technology transfer risks [1][3]. Group 1: Company Operations and Management - Nexperia, headquartered in Nijmegen, Netherlands, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wingtech and produces automotive chips for various global car manufacturers [1]. - The Dutch government previously intervened in Nexperia's operations due to fears of technology outflow and supply chain issues, leading to the suspension of the CEO and the management of shares by an independent administrator [3]. - The court's decision on February 11 confirmed the initiation of an investigation and the continuation of control restrictions over the company, while allowing European management to continue operations [3][6]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Context - The investigation was prompted by a ministerial order from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, which froze the company's asset adjustments, intellectual property transfers, and personnel changes for one year starting from late September last year [3]. - The court's temporary measures have been criticized by Nexperia, which claims they are based on one-sided information, affecting the supply chain and prompting automotive manufacturers to adjust their procurement strategies [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Supply Chain and Industry - The ongoing legal disputes have led to disruptions in the supply chain, with Japanese and German companies sourcing directly from China, and local factories in China operating independently using domestic materials [3][4]. - The investigation and subsequent restrictions have highlighted the vulnerabilities in global supply chains, with Nexperia's European operations adapting to the situation under the supervision of an administrator [6][8]. - The situation has also prompted the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to impose countervailing duties on EU dairy imports, further complicating trade relations and impacting the dairy industry [4][8].

2026年开年之际，经济的结构性分化仍在继续，新旧动能转换的调整步伐也已加快。在此背景下，债券 市场的表现或成为观察这一宏观转换最敏锐的窗口。 华商鸿信纯债债券基金经理吴毓灵在近期披露的定期报告中回顾道，2025年四季度，国内经济基本面延 续结构性分化态势，生产端和出口保持韧性，PMI重回扩张区间，物价水平从低位温和回升。但内需表 现仍偏弱，其中社零增速放缓，固定资产投资明显承压，地产销售未见起色。货币政策延续适度宽松， 资金价格中枢整体平稳。 华商鸿信纯债债券申购费率根据申购金额划分不同标准：金额＜100万元时费率为0.80%；100万元≤金 额＜300万元时费率为0.60%；300万元≤金额＜500万元时费率为0.30%；金额≥500万元时按每笔100元收 取。赎回费率依据持有时间划分：持有时间小于7日费率1.50%；7日≤持有时间不收取赎回费。本基金 不收取销售服务费。通过基金管理人的直销中心申购本基金基金份额的养老金客户申购费率详见本基金 《招募说明书》及相关公告。 风险提示：本基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、恪尽职守、谨慎勤勉的态度管理和运用基金资产，但不保证 基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资者购买基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade friction with China in 2025 exposed long-standing structural economic issues in the U.S., revealing vulnerabilities in its economy that have been neglected due to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Trump administration's attempt to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 145% on Chinese goods aimed to stimulate domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, but instead exacerbated inflation and increased household expenses by hundreds of dollars [3][10]. - The U.S. manufacturing sector's operating rate was only 75%, significantly below historical peaks, indicating a hollowing out of domestic production capabilities [10]. - The reliance on financial markets for short-term gains has led to a neglect of the real economy, amplifying weaknesses during the trade conflict [10][20]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Resource Dependency - The U.S. is heavily dependent on China for rare earth elements, with over 80% of its refined rare earths sourced from China, posing risks to national security and defense capabilities [5][9]. - China's implementation of a rare earth export licensing system in April 2025 targeted U.S. technology and defense industries, forcing American companies to reassess their supply chains and compliance costs [7][12]. - The U.S. has attempted to relocate manufacturing to countries like Vietnam and Mexico, but infrastructure and skill levels in these regions have led to production delays and quality issues [5]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's proactive strategy in the trade conflict, focusing on critical minerals, has shifted the negotiation dynamics, compelling the U.S. to make concessions [14][20]. - The U.S. has allocated $134 million for rare earth recycling, but the short-term impact is limited, highlighting the challenges in establishing an independent supply chain [19]. - China's dominance in rare earth processing, with a global production share of 90%, makes it difficult for U.S. allies to fill the supply gap in the short term [16].

2022 年以来，法国葡萄酒及烈酒出口额累计下跌17%，从法国第二大出口品类滑落至第三位，次于航 空航天与化妆品行业。 展望未来，FEVS 主席加布里埃尔・皮卡德表示，行业有望从欧盟与印度、南方共同市场的新贸易协定 中受益，这些地区需求正在增长；但若市场准入条件得不到改善，2026 年形势仍将艰难。 去年，美国对相关产品加征更高关税，甚至威胁最高加征200%关税，严重抑制需求，下半年尤为明 显。对美出口额大跌21%，至 30 亿欧元，出口量跌破 3000 万箱。 皮卡德在巴黎酒展前接受路透社采访时表示："美国市场确实在萎缩，仅靠调整出口量可能不够，2026 年或许还会再降。" 2025 年，受反倾销税严重抑制干邑、雅文邑及其他葡萄基烈酒对华出口影响，法国对华酒类销售额大 跌20%，至 7.67 亿欧元。 法国烈酒旗舰品类干邑出口量暴跌15%，出口额暴跌24%，成为贸易摩擦升级的最大受害者之一。 法国葡萄酒与烈酒出口商协会（FEVS）周二表示，受美国加征关税、中国实施相关税负影响，法国葡 萄酒及烈酒出口在 2025 年连续第三年下滑，行业前景依然充满挑战。 受美中贸易壁垒抑制需求影响，法国葡萄酒及烈酒去年出口额 ...

Economic Context - The current economic predicament in the U.S. stems from long-term structural issues, which are expected to fully manifest during trade frictions with China in 2025 [2] - The U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency allows for easy capital acquisition, leading to significant inflows into stock and bond markets while neglecting manufacturing investments [2] Trade Policies and Impacts - In early 2025, the Trump administration attempted to reverse the situation by imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 145% on Chinese goods to stimulate domestic production and reduce trade deficits [4] - This approach exacerbated domestic inflation as importers passed additional costs onto consumers, resulting in an average household expenditure increase of several hundred dollars [5] Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges - The U.S. has attempted to relocate factories to Vietnam or Mexico; however, these regions lack the necessary infrastructure and skilled labor compared to China, leading to production delays and quality issues [7] - The U.S. relies on China for over 80% of its refined rare earth minerals, posing supply risks to defense equipment like the F-35 fighter jet [7] Response from China - In April 2025, China introduced a rare earth export licensing system, impacting seven rare earth elements and requiring approval for products containing trace amounts of Chinese rare earths, mirroring U.S. export control practices [9] - This move directly targets U.S. technology and defense industries, forcing companies to reassess suppliers and increase compliance costs [9] Economic Consequences - The only operational rare earth mine in the U.S. still needs to send ore to China for processing, with establishing an independent supply chain estimated to take 5 to 15 years [11] - Following the tariff announcement, the U.S. stock market dropped over 2%, raising concerns about an economic recession [11] Strategic Implications - The U.S. economic model, heavily reliant on financial bubbles, has neglected the stability of its manufacturing base, amplifying vulnerabilities in the trade war [13] - China's strategy has shifted from defensive to proactive, establishing global rules through licensing systems that increase U.S. dependency [15] Future Outlook - If the U.S. attempts to reintroduce tariffs, China can readily reinstate controls, shifting the balance of negotiations in its favor [21] - The ongoing situation illustrates that a firm stance can protect national interests and promote fairness in global trade [21]

今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌早间冲高遇阻，午后弱势震荡为主；沪锌2603主力合约开盘价24800元/ 吨，最高价25010元/吨，最低价24720元/吨，昨日结算价24905元/吨，今日收盘价24885元/吨，跌20 元，跌幅0.08%。今日沪锌2603主力合约成交量208461手减少107375手，持仓量79207手减少3084手。 伦锌北京时间14：53最新价报3353美元，涨30美元。 今日ccmn锌价统计：今日ccmn长江综合0#锌价报24860-24960元/吨，均价24910元，跌150元，1#锌价报 24780-24880元/吨，均价24830元，跌150元；广东现货0#锌报24610-24910元/吨，均价24760元，跌170 元，1#锌价24540-24840元/吨，均价24690元，跌170元。今日现货锌市场报价0#锌在24850-24960元/吨 之间，1#锌在24780-24880元/吨之间。对比沪期锌2602合约0#锌贴水100-升水10元/吨，1#锌贴水170-贴 水70元/吨。对比沪期锌2603合约0#锌贴水95-升水15元/吨，1#锌贴水165-贴水65元/吨。 综合来看，市场 ...

前面的制造危机、施压美联储，都是为了把黄金炒上去，现在选一个鹰派人物，就是为了收割。 期货公司观点 有没有感觉被特朗普算计了。 黄金这一波是谁炒起来的？是特朗普。 特朗普攻打委内瑞拉，利用格陵兰岛施压欧洲，叫嚣攻打伊朗，另外，还对美联储指手画脚，对美联储 主席鲍威尔持续施压，要求进行降息，对美联储官员起诉，一个劲的要安插自己人进入美联储。 种种的一切，都让黄金大涨，不夸张的说，全球都被特朗普钓成了翘嘴。 结果现在180度大转弯，特朗普把大家都忽悠了。在大家预测特朗普的下一任美联储人选将会执行他的 降息要求，保持低利率政策的时候，特朗普选了一个鹰派人物上台，告诉你们，我摊牌了，不装了，等 于告诉大家，以后不这么降息了，货币政策要改了。 广发期货： 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰 ...