站在今年年底回头看，人民币这一年的走势让很多人没想到——它不但没跌，反而涨了不少。 年初贸易摩擦刚开始时，人民币一度贬到7.4。当时很多人还照着2018年贸易冲突的老经验推测，以为人民币会继续贬 值，甚至可能破8。 （人民币年内走势图） 照大多数人的直观想法，国内经济有压力，外部贸易摩擦又比2018年更激烈，人民币应该像当年那样承受很大贬值压力 才对，怎么还升值了呢？ 但实际情况恰恰相反，人民币从4月份的低点7.4开始一路走高，到现在已经升值了4%，离7这个关口只差一口气。 在我看来，主要有两个原因： 第一，美元今年比较弱，贡献了大约三成的原因； 第二，政策起了支撑作用，贡献了七成。 说美元弱贡献了三成，主要是因为美元跌的时候，人民币并没有跟着大幅升值；而下半年人民币走强的节奏，更是光靠 美元走弱解释不通的。 看看下面这张图： 这是美元指数今年的走势。能明显看出，美元上半年就跌了差不多10%，下半年基本在98附近震荡。 而这期间： 上半年，日元、韩元分别升值9%和8%，人民币只升了2%； 全年来看，日元、韩元还略微贬值（-1%和-0.4%），人民币却整体升值了4%。 所以我觉得， 美元走弱确实在上半年带动了非 ...

牛弹琴 有朋友询问，怎么看墨西哥最近的小动作？ 但也请放心，中国早已成竹在胸，据此前先例和本次的个案分析，中方至少准备了三大招。 回头我会细说。 必须看到，到目前为止，对墨西哥的种种做法，中国保持了极大的克制。但克制绝不等于是纵容。 有朋友就分析，中国的这种克制，更像是"大国的隐忍"，隐忍不是懦弱，而是积蓄力量；冷静不是无 为，而是等待时机。先礼后兵，更为后续行动保留了充分空间。 但我们必须要说，墨西哥太不争气。 全世界都看到，美国对墨西哥的颐指气使，墨西哥却仍旧亦步亦趋。 对中国等国商品大幅加税，我们也不必否认，这是墨西哥一些人向美国献上的投名状。 坦率地说，我们不能不重视。 这也有一个博弈的过程。 一则是因为中墨双边贸易很重要，二则是墨西哥会起到很坏的示范效应。 国际关系中，小动作往往是大风暴的序幕，我们不可不察。 该措施明确排除了与美国、加拿大、欧盟等签署自贸协定的伙伴，主要冲击中国、韩国、印度等非自贸 伙伴。 此举因其"预先毫无征兆"，被国际社会视为一场"关税突袭"。 墨方的关税政策，随后从立即生效的临时性措施走向通过国会审议的长期性政策。 2025年9月，墨政府向国会提交更为广泛的提税提案，涉及约1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy has shown unexpected resilience in 2025, with trade volumes increasing despite initial pessimistic forecasts due to trade tensions and inflation concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - By the end of 2025, China's total import and export volume reached 37.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.6% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - China's share in global trade rose to approximately 15%, indicating a strengthening position in the international market [11]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China has shifted its trade focus towards emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, which have shown greater demand elasticity, thus supporting trade growth [8][11]. - The adjustment in trade strategy is not merely a replacement but has resulted in new growth increments [11]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The release of the R1 model by DeepSeek signifies China's capability to advance in technology, challenging the dominance of a few countries in the field of large models [13]. - International investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs, are reassessing Chinese assets based on technological progress, influenced by the contrasting economic conditions between the U.S. and China [13][15]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Domestic consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the global average of 55%, indicating weak internal demand [17]. - The income distribution structure in China is imbalanced, with households receiving only 60.6% of national income, which is below the global average, affecting consumer spending [19][21]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Short-term measures like trade-in programs have temporarily boosted sales but are not sustainable for long-term structural change [23]. - A focus on improving income distribution mechanisms is essential, particularly for workers in small and medium enterprises, to enhance consumer spending capacity [23][25].

Group 1 - The U.S. beef industry initially thrived in the Chinese market, with exports reaching $1.6 billion in 2024, making China the third-largest buyer [1] - Following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration in March 2025, U.S. beef became more expensive in Chinese supermarkets, leading consumers to switch to Brazilian beef [1][3] - The export volume of U.S. beef to China plummeted from 2,000 tons at the beginning of the year to just 54 tons by March 20, 2025, significantly impacting Midwestern farmers [3] Group 2 - In April 2025, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on all imports, which China countered with an additional 34% tariff, raising the total tariff on U.S. beef to 56% [5] - U.S. beef exports to China fell by 70% in April, with Australian grass-fed beef taking its place on supermarket shelves due to lower prices [5] - By May, the number of U.S. beef processing plants eligible for export to China had dwindled, resulting in exports of less than 1,000 tons for the month [5][7] Group 3 - By July 2025, U.S. beef exports to China had dropped to 1,110 tons, a 92% year-on-year decline, while Brazil and Argentina maintained stable beef supplies to China [7] - The overall loss for the U.S. beef industry in the first half of 2025 exceeded $800 million, with the agricultural export deficit widening instead of narrowing as intended [7][9] - The failure to renew beef registration became a significant point of trade friction, leading to a collapse in exports and protests from farmers [9] Group 4 - By August 2025, U.S. beef exports to China had dwindled to a few million dollars per month, with many processing plants facing financial difficulties and some going bankrupt [11] - Although a temporary agreement in November 2025 led to a slight recovery in exports, the overall export value to China was projected to drop by 53% to $484 million in 2025 [11] - The trade conflict highlighted the need for U.S. producers to adapt to a more diversified procurement strategy from China, as farmers faced tightening conditions [11]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is responding to China's long-term export licenses for rare earth minerals, which are crucial for clean technology, automotive production, and defense sectors [1] - The EU Trade Commissioner noted that while some companies have received these licenses, further details are needed for a comprehensive assessment of the process [1] - China's new export licensing requirements for rare earths were introduced in April 2025, as a direct response to U.S. tariffs, and were further strengthened in October 2025 [1][7] Group 2 - Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, criticized China's export restrictions during a conference in Berlin, highlighting their impact on the automotive, defense, and AI sectors [3] - The EU has launched the RESourceEU initiative to reduce dependency on Chinese raw materials, focusing on partnerships with countries like Australia, Canada, and Chile [3] - The initiative also aims to increase investment in domestic production and recycling of critical raw materials within the EU [3] Group 3 - The EU Commission initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, citing evidence of unfair competition due to low-priced subsidized imports [4] - The investigation period covers from October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023, with trend analysis dating back to January 1, 2020 [4] - The EU plans to impose temporary tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by July 2024, followed by permanent tariffs in October 2024 [4] Group 4 - China's Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining a fair trade environment through anti-dumping investigations against certain EU products [5] - Negotiations between China and the EU are ongoing to discuss issues such as minimum pricing mechanisms for electric vehicles [5] - The EU's response to China's export controls includes joint procurement and stockpiling of critical raw materials to mitigate potential supply disruptions [7][8] Group 5 - The EU is accelerating diversification efforts in response to strengthened rare earth export controls from China, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese dominance in the market [8] - Cooperation agreements with countries like Canada are being pursued to enhance exploration and processing of raw materials [8]

Group 1: Trade Policies and Responses - In 2025, following Trump's second term, the US trade policy became more aggressive, imposing tariffs on multiple countries, with China being the primary target [1] - China responded swiftly with reciprocal measures, escalating trade tensions between the two nations [1][5] - India announced temporary tariffs on imported steel coinciding with US Vice President Vance's visit, indicating alignment with US interests [3][5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Strategic Moves - The imposition of tariffs has led to a decline in orders for Chinese exporters, while Indian companies have seen short-term benefits but face long-term supply chain complexities [5][11] - Vietnam adopted a cautious approach, ensuring its actions align with international commitments, while Japan resisted US demands, highlighting the varied responses of countries to US trade strategies [7][9] - The trade war has caused volatility in US markets, with increasing criticism of Trump's economic understanding and the effectiveness of his policies [9][13] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Global Dynamics - The ongoing trade conflict has prompted countries to reassess their positions, with India leveraging its relationship with the US to gain concessions while risking its ties with China [11][17] - The global supply chain is undergoing restructuring, with the US struggling to bring back manufacturing, while India has attracted some investment but with limited growth in manufacturing [15][19] - The trade war has underscored the lack of winners in such conflicts, with increasing uncertainty in the global economy as countries navigate their interests [17][19]

Group 1: Business Performance and Market Trends - The gross margin of the company's closed piston compressor business is expected to fluctuate slightly in 2025, with a production capacity utilization rate exceeding 90% [2] - In 2024, the production capacity of closed piston compressors in China increased by 14%, while total industry sales only grew by 2.1%, indicating intensified competition [2] - The domestic sales of closed piston compressors are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, while exports are expected to decline by 5.9% due to trade tensions and weak consumer demand [3] Group 2: Future Outlook and Strategic Planning - The industry is anticipated to face increased price competition in 2026, with a focus on enhancing product structure and increasing the proportion of high-value-added products [2] - There are no authoritative forecasts for 2026 yet, but it is generally believed that exports will grow while domestic sales may face downward pressure [4] - The company is actively considering overseas factory plans to adapt to clients' capacity shifts abroad [6] Group 3: Cost Structure and Profitability - Copper constitutes a small portion of the company's raw material costs, thus fluctuations in copper prices have minimal impact on overall profitability [2] - The company aims to improve profitability in its electric vehicle air conditioning compressor segment by focusing on market share expansion rather than immediate profit margins [7] Group 4: Shareholder Returns and Investment Strategy - The company adheres to its three-year shareholder return plan (2023-2025) and will consider factors like annual profit, future funding needs, and shareholder preferences when formulating profit distribution plans [8] - Future mergers and acquisitions will focus on targets that align with the company's existing business for strategic expansion [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In normal circumstances, the price of soybean meal futures is expected to rise steadily in 2026. If there is adverse weather, the price may enter an upward cycle [2]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily due to the tight supply - demand balance sheet. The Brazilian soybean premium is neutral, and the price of soybean meal is affected by US soybean prices, Brazilian premiums, and weather factors [2][118][119]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - From January to April 8, 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose. The reasons included the bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [6]. - From April 9 to November 28, 2025, the price entered an "interval operation" pattern, mainly trading "Sino - US trade sentiment", with five trading bands affected by trade news and market sentiment [7]. 2. 2026 Soybean Meal Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Raw Material Soybean Supply and Demand: Tight US Supply, Neutral South American Supply - **US Soybean Balance Sheet: Tight Supply - Demand in the Inventory Reduction Cycle** - In 2025/26, US soybean supply decreased due to reduced planting, while demand decreased due to trade frictions. Supply decline was greater than demand, leading to a tight balance sheet [15]. - In 2026/27, the US soybean balance sheet is expected to remain tight. Planting area may increase slightly, supply and demand will both expand, but supply growth will be lower than demand, and ending stocks will decline [29][30]. - **South American Soybean Balance Sheet: Neutral, First Contracting, Then Loosening** - In 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet slightly contracted, and it is expected to be loose in 2026/27. The Argentine balance sheet slightly contracted in 2025/26 and is expected to be slightly loose in 2026/27 [32][33][48]. - **Weather's Impact on the Balance Sheet** - Abnormal weather can lead to a tight balance sheet and price increases. Currently, La Nina weather is expected to last until February 2026 and turn ENSO neutral from January to March 2026, which may affect South American soybean production [51]. 2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Import Profits - In 2025, China's soybean imports and soybean meal production were high, but the operating rate was low due to low profits and temporary shortages. In 2026, soybean imports may be stable or slightly decrease due to poor import profits, which may affect soybean meal supply [55][73]. 2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Breeding Profits - In 2025, soybean meal demand was good, with stable growth in livestock and poultry breeding, increased feed production, and a rising proportion of soybean meal addition. In 2026, demand may be stable or slightly decrease due to declining breeding profits, a possible decline in the scale of livestock and poultry breeding, and a slight decrease in the proportion of soybean meal use [96][97]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily, the Brazilian soybean premium is neutral. In normal weather, the balance sheets of Brazil and Argentina have minor contradictions. Adverse weather may tighten the balance sheets and drive up prices. Domestic soybean meal supply and demand may slightly contract, and the spot price may be slightly stronger [118][119][120][121][122]. - Investment strategy: Focus on the "buying on dips and trading in bands" strategy. Pay attention to possible driving events such as trade policies, adverse weather, and USDA reports [123].

Group 1 - China's historic trade surplus reached $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, marking the first time in history that a country achieved an annual trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion, translating to a daily net gain of nearly $33 million [1] - The composition of exports has shifted significantly, with electromechanical products now accounting for over 60% of total exports, indicating a transition from low-value goods to high-tech, high-value products [3] - Despite a 19% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. and a 28.6% drop in November, China's flexible global market strategy has allowed for a diversified export approach, mitigating risks associated with reliance on a single market [4] Group 2 - The high trade surplus is accompanied by a 0.6% decline in total imports, particularly in key categories like steel, wood, and automobiles, reflecting ongoing challenges in domestic demand and economic conditions [6][7] - The surplus is partly driven by domestic economic pressures, with consumers hesitant to spend due to stagnant housing prices and slow income growth, leading to increased reliance on exports [8] - The current economic environment is characterized by deflationary pressures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) around 0% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining for 37 consecutive months, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][12] Group 3 - The trade surplus has led to rising tensions with trading partners, particularly the EU, where significant trade imbalances have prompted calls for tariffs and other trade restrictions [10] - The reliance on external demand for economic growth is highlighted by the fact that exports account for over 10% of GDP, while domestic consumption only makes up 38% of GDP, indicating a need for structural economic adjustments [10][15] - Future opportunities may lie in domestic demand recovery, with potential for growth in consumer spending and income levels, which are crucial for a healthier economic structure [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision resulted in a 25 basis point cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] - This decision marks the largest internal division within the Federal Reserve since 2019, with 9 out of 12 members supporting the rate cut and 3 opposing it [5][7] - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump, who has consistently argued that high interest rates hinder economic growth, has influenced some Federal Reserve officials to adopt a more dovish stance [3][8] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals indicate a weakening job market, with a slowdown in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate, leading to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to initiate a $40 billion short-term U.S. Treasury purchase program aims to maintain adequate reserve supply and enhance liquidity in the market [4] - The divergence among Federal Reserve officials reflects differing assessments of the economic situation, with some advocating for rate cuts to alleviate corporate financing costs and employment pressures, while others are concerned about inflation risks [8][9] Group 3 - The impact of the rate cut on the U.S. economy is viewed as potentially limited, as some market participants believe the current rate remains relatively high and the cut may not effectively stimulate the economy [11] - The ongoing transformation driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is also affecting the U.S. job market, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to guide the economy through monetary policy [12] - The anticipated effects of the rate cut on global markets may be diluted by ongoing trade tensions, which remain a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy [13] Group 4 - Market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts are varied, with some analysts suggesting only one cut in the first half of the next year, while others foresee a more aggressive approach later in the year [15] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair favored by Trump could lead to a faster pace of rate cuts, although concerns about inflation could arise if aggressive cuts are implemented [15] - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to remain around 2%, falling short of Trump's target of 3%, indicating a relatively subdued economic environment [15]