Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, then oscillated downward and turned negative during the session. In the afternoon, they accelerated their decline and then rebounded. At the end of the session, long-term contracts closed slightly lower, while medium and short-term contracts closed higher. In terms of funds, there was a significant improvement. Today, 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, and the central bank conducted new operations of 5.72 billion yuan, with a net maturity of more than 452.1 billion yuan. However, the overnight xrepo rate dropped to 1.3% before the market, continuing to decline [1] Intraday News - According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration has cancelled some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software. According to the South China Morning Post, Siemens, Synopsys, and Cadence have all stated that the US government has cancelled export control measures on some Chinese chip design software this Thursday. Three global leading electronic design automation (EDA) software developers have all stated that their relevant products will no longer require special approval for export to China in the future [2] Market Judgment - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Data Overview - **Contract Price and Position Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.506, unchanged from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 106.23, down 0.01 from the previous day; T2509 closed at 109.07, down 0.04 from the previous day; TL2509 closed at 121.07, down 0.09 from the previous day. In terms of positions, TS contract positions increased by 211 to 124,622 hands; TF contract positions increased by 747 to 194,961 hands; T contract positions increased by 1,264 to 243,215 hands; TL contract positions decreased by 636 to 145,598 hands [3][4] - **Basis and Trading Volume**: TS basis (CTD) was -0.0329, down 0.0115 from the previous day; TF basis (CTD) was -0.0295, down 0.021 from the previous day; T basis (CTD) was 0.1301, up 0.0704 from the previous day; TL basis (CTD) was 0.3617, down 0.028 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, TS main contract trading volume was 24,843 hands, down 101 from the previous day; TF main contract trading volume was 51,486 hands, up 5,555 from the previous day; T main contract trading volume was 64,924 hands, up 6,969 from the previous day; TL main contract trading volume was 72,609 hands, up 3,741 from the previous day [4] - **Funding Rates and Trading Volume**: DR001 was 1.3597%, down 0.0076 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.5053%, down 0.0404 from the previous day; DR014 was 1.5693%, down 0.0501 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, DR001 trading volume was 239.693147 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR007 trading volume was 8.839759 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR014 trading volume was 0.656805 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day [4]

Report Information - Report Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big - Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of July 1, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.243%, 4.453%, 3.250% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.035% (UK) to 0.052% (Japan), weekly changes from - 0.119% (Brazil) to 0.063% (Germany), monthly changes from - 0.213% (US) to 0.183% (Switzerland), and annual changes from - 0.961% (Japan) to 0.371% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.730%, 3.821%, 1.844% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.013% (Germany) to 0.030% (US), weekly changes from - 0.170% (US) to 0.026% (South Korea), monthly changes from - 0.230% (US) to 0.063% (Germany), and annual changes from - 1.424% (Italy) to 0.438% (Japan) [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - As of July 1, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.459, 108.000 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.65% (South African rand) to 0.50% (Brazilian real), weekly changes from - 1.20% (Malaysian ringgit) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), monthly changes from - 3.19% (Brazilian real) to 0.00% (Russian ruble), and annual changes from - 11.54% (Thai baht) to 0.49% (Brazilian real) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 1, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were 6198.010, 44494.940 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 1.24% (Nikkei) to 1.88% (Thai index), weekly changes from - 0.45% (South Korean index) to 3.26% (Dow Jones), monthly changes from - 1.84% (Indian index) to 6.78% (Nikkei), and annual changes from - 15.03% (Thai index) to 33.52% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - As of July 1, 2025, the US investment - grade corporate bond index, euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index, etc. were 3428.740, 263.071 respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.04% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.28% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), weekly changes from - 0.01% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 0.95% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), monthly changes from 0.33% (euro - area high - yield corporate bond index) to 2.22% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index), and annual changes from 6.12% (euro - area investment - grade corporate bond index) to 14.36% (emerging - market high - yield corporate bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3457.75, 3942.76 respectively. The daily changes were 0.39% (A - shares), 0.17% (CSI 300), etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.12, 11.26 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.05 (CSI 300), 0.05 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3.70, 5.77 respectively. The环比 changes were 0.00 (CSI 300), 0.00 (SSE 50), etc. [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, main board, etc. were - 746.29, - 399.28 respectively. The 5 - day average values were - 280.06 (A - shares), - 209.33 (main board), etc. [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 14660.15, 2360.70 respectively. The环比 changes were - 208.42 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets), - 527.51 (CSI 300), etc. [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 56.76, - 27.91, - 66.67 respectively. The magnitudes were - 1.44% (IF), - 1.03% (IH), - 1.12% (IC) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 109.005, 106.205 respectively. The daily changes were - 0.14% (T00), - 0.10% (TF00), etc. [6] - The funding rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4493%, 1.6175%, 1.6280% respectively. The daily changes were - 56.00 (R001), - 39.00 (R007), 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, indicating a seasonal liquidity easing in July, with expectations for a slight decline in funding rates [1][4][5]. Monetary Policy Actions - On July 1, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 1310 billion yuan, with both bidding and winning amounts matching this figure, and the operation rate set at 1.40% [1][4]. - A total of 4065 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature, leading to a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan from the open market [1]. Market Conditions - The market is expected to experience seasonal easing in July, with funding rates likely to stabilize and slightly decline [5][6]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with overnight Shibor rising by 5.1 basis points to 1.422% and 7-day Shibor increasing by 9.5 basis points to 1.763% prior to July 1 [4]. Economic Outlook - The first half of the year showed strong economic performance, reducing the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term [7][8]. - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth targets [5][9]. Future Expectations - The liquidity easing trend is expected to continue, with the PBOC likely to implement measures to ensure market liquidity remains abundant [6][9]. - The central bank may utilize various tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to manage liquidity effectively throughout the second half of the year [8][9].

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of July 1, 2025, the Company Bond ETF is priced at 106.11 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.17% over the past year as of June 30, 2025 [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 21.821 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 17 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 6.249 billion yuan, averaging 368 million yuan per day [1] - Over the past five years, the net value of the Company Bond ETF has increased by 13.29% [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of July 1, 2025, the National Bond ETF (5-10 years) is priced at 117.53 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.14% over the past three months as of June 30, 2025 [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF (5-10 years) reached 1.496 billion yuan, a new high in the past three months [3] - The ETF has recorded a net inflow of 31.7321 million yuan recently, with a total of 63.4714 million yuan over the past five trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of July 1, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF is priced at 106.23 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.84% over the past year as of June 30, 2025 [4] - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, continuing the improvement trend [4] - The economic growth for Q2 is expected to remain stable, with GDP growth projected to be no less than 5% [4] Group 4: Market Overview and Trends - In June, the net buying of interest rate bonds by bond funds reached 486.2 billion yuan, with 113 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more [5] - The market is expected to see narrow fluctuations in interest rate bonds in the short term, with a focus on long-term city investment bonds and capital bonds [5] - Recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market are related to profit-taking and the requirement for state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares, presenting an opportunity [5]

Group 1: Economic Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May[1] - The Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaged 51.1 in June, up from 50.9 in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 7.3% in the week of June 22, with a three-week average of 3.2% compared to 4.93% in May[1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Subway ridership in 27 cities averaged 77.42 million daily, up 0.5% year-on-year, while domestic flight numbers were 12,700, up 0.7% year-on-year[2] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 16% year-on-year as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May[2] Group 3: Financial Indicators - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8%[3] - The DR001 rate was 1.3683%, DR007 was 1.6968%, and R007 was 1.9201% as of June 27, with changes of -0.59bps, +20.27bps, and +32.91bps respectively[3]

Market Overview - The bond market showed a weak consolidation on June 24, with the long-end driving an overall pullback in the curve, leading to a decline in government bond futures across the board [1] - The interbank bond yield rose by approximately 1 basis point, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan in the open market, and funding rates approaching the end of the month maintained an upward trend [1] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27% at 120.930, the 10-year down 0.11% at 109.025, the 5-year down 0.07% at 106.185, and the 2-year down 0.02% at 102.504 [2] - Major interbank interest rate bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 1.645%, and the 30-year government bond yield up 1.25 basis points to 1.849% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 4.44 basis points to 3.855% and the 10-year yield down 2.75 basis points to 4.346% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.424% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, reflecting market expectations for easing policies from the European Central Bank [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 30-year government bonds at 1.2594% and 1.8477%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.87 and 5.37 [4] - The China Development Bank's 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4541%, 1.5253%, and 1.6447%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.78, 3.17, and 2.43 [4] Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate up 0.3 basis points to 1.37% and the 7-day rate up 13.2 basis points to 1.629% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the 10-year government bond yield has recently broken below 1.65%, with long-term bonds like the 30-year and 50-year performing better, driven by institutional buying [7] - China International Capital Corporation suggested increasing allocations to 3-5 year bonds with relatively high coupons, while also considering trading opportunities in long-term bonds with good credit quality [7]

证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月17日 资金观察，货币瞭望 半年末叠加到期高峰，预计6月资金利率季节性上行 投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第六期 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储6月会议继续暂停降息预期一致，美债短期利率 走势平稳； ➢国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：5月资金面继续转松，银行间和交易所回购利 率均值大多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: On June 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.401%, and the UK was 4.549%. Changes in yields were also provided for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For instance, the one - year change in the US was 0.074%, while in Italy it was - 0.384% [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies such as the US, UK, and Germany were presented. On June 13, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.940%. Similar to the 10 - year yields, changes for different time periods were given [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies were shown. On June 13, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.544, with the latest change being 0.11%. Changes for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were provided [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The performance of major economies' stock indices was reported. On June 13, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5976.970, with a latest change of - 1.13%. Changes for different time periods were also included [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The performance of credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, was presented. The latest changes, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes were given [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3377.00, with a change of - 0.75% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported. For instance, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.72, with a环比 change of - 0.06 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were given. The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.46, with a环比 change of 0.01 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. The latest value of A - shares' fund flow was - 1393.57 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were reported. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14671.97 [4]. - **Main Contract Premiums/Discounts**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were provided. The basis of IF was - 7.78, with a change of - 0.20% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. The closing price of T00 was 108.825, with a change of 0.02% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were given. The R001 rate was 1.4620%, with a daily change of - 12.00 BP [5].

DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250615 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 3DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 72 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...