2025 年 06 月 20 日 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项目 | 2025/6/19 | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/16 | | 2025/6/13 日涨跌幅周涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2507合约(收盘价) | 798 | 795. 5 | 793 | 792 | 767.5 | 0. 3% | 4. 0% | | | 2507合约(成交量) | 21160 | 32071 | 47147 | 29796 | 15211 | -34. 0% | 39% | | | 2507合约(持仓量) | 22957 | 23403 | 24075 | 21987 | 20998 | -1. 9% | 9% | | | 2509合约(收盘价) | 794 | 795 | 802 | 801 | 784. 5 | -0. 1% | 1 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, stating that the negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, and it is waiting for the confirmation from the culling of laying hens. The trend intensity is rated as 0, indicating a neutral view [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2507 is 2,833 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the trading volume decreased by 62,198 and the open interest decreased by 10,284. The closing price of egg 2509 is 3,655 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily decrease of 0.49%, and the trading volume decreased by 22,386 while the open interest increased by 5,704 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 680 (previous day: - 678), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 822 (previous day: - 837) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.70 yuan/jin, 2.56 yuan/jin, 2.80 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The spot prices of corn and soybean meal are 2,303 yuan/ton and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively. The price of live pigs in Henan is 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), indicating a neutral view on the market [1].

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1. 29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 704. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on June 3, 2025, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. The overall trading volume of stock index futures declined, showing a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm, while the overall open interest increased. The market is currently in a state of waiting for new drivers, with a mainly oscillating pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **Price and Change**: On June 3, all four major index futures' current - month contracts rose. IF increased by 0.11%, IH by 0.05%, IC by 0.33%, and IM by 0.68%. The underlying indices, such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, also went up [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased. IF decreased by 13,852 lots, IH by 9,296 lots, IC by 9,090 lots, and IM by 23,121 lots. The total open interest increased. IF increased by 5,468 lots, IH by 1,863 lots, IC by 6,257 lots, and IM by 3,188 lots [2]. 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - The position changes of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts vary. For example, in IF contracts, the long - order and short - order position changes are different in each contract month; some data for certain contracts are not disclosed [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6]. - **Important Drivers**: During the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival, domestic tourist trips reached 119 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, and domestic tourism spending was 42.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to issues such as US chip export controls and EU restrictions on Chinese enterprises' participation in medical device tenders. The A - share market showed a pattern of opening lower and closing higher, with the financial sector leading the rise [6].

Report Overview - The report is about the egg market on June 4, 2025, provided by Guotai Junan Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report presents the latest data on egg fundamentals and the industrial chain, but no clear core view is explicitly stated [1] Summary by Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,897 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and trading volume decreased by 21,187 and open interest decreased by 8,968. The closing price of egg2509 is 3,722 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.80%, and trading volume increased by 3,141 and open interest increased by 1,374 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -676 (previous day: -680), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -825 (previous day: -819) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.90 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 2.90 yuan/jin, and 3.02 yuan/jin respectively. The previous day's prices were 2.95 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The latest corn spot price is 2,316 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the latest soybean meal spot price is 2,900 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day), and the latest Henan pig price is 14.35 yuan/kg (down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance on the market, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are current market issues such as the inverted price difference between fat pigs in the north and south, a decrease in group piglet sales, and a slight increase in pen pressure in May, price increases have exceeded expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions have not reached the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, and capital interference has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan's live pig spot is 15,000 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 14,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton in Guangdong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Trading Logic**: The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. Continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [3] - **Contract Price Ranges**: The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data | Contract | Volume (compared to the previous day) | Open Interest (compared to yesterday) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 | 3,265 (-1,782) | 28,942 (-950) | | Live Pig 2509 | 13,932 (-5,014) | 71,262 (-92) | | Live Pig 2511 | 1,876 (-2,431) | 29,684 (+74) | [3] 3.4 Futures Price Difference Data | Price Difference Type | Price Difference Value | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 Basis | 35 | - | | Live Pig 2509 Basis | 295 | - | | Live Pig 2511 Basis | 5 | - | | Live Pig 7 - 9 Spread | 1,425 | -50 | | Live Pig 9 - 11 Spread | 1,115 | -15 | [3]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The market style factors track the balance and volatility between different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Style Balance**: Measure the relative performance of large-cap vs. small-cap stocks and value vs. growth stocks to determine the market's style preference[11] - **Style Volatility**: Calculate the fluctuations in the relative performance of these styles over time to assess the stability of the market's style preference[11] - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a balanced preference between large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as between value and growth stocks. Additionally, the volatility of these styles continued to decline, indicating a more stable market environment[11][13] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the dispersion of returns, sector rotation, and trading concentration to understand the structural dynamics of the market[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Return Dispersion**: Measure the excess return dispersion across industry indices to evaluate the variability in sector performance[11] - **Sector Rotation**: Assess the speed of sector rotation by tracking changes in sector leadership over time[11] - **Trading Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of trading volume concentrated in the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries to gauge market concentration[11] - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decline in return dispersion, slower sector rotation, and reduced trading concentration, suggesting a more evenly distributed market environment[11][13] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors measure the overall activity and liquidity of the market through volatility and turnover rates[12][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Volatility**: Calculate the index-level volatility to assess market stability[12] - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the turnover rate of the market to evaluate trading activity[12] - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a decline in both volatility and turnover rates, reflecting reduced market activity, likely influenced by the holiday period[12][13] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the performance, momentum, and liquidity of various commodity sectors[27][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Measure the strength of price trends in different commodity sectors, such as energy, metals, and agriculture[27] - **Basis Momentum**: Calculate the basis momentum, particularly for the metals sector, to assess the relative strength of futures prices compared to spot prices[27][30] - **Volatility**: Track the volatility levels across commodity sectors to evaluate risk[27][30] - **Liquidity**: Measure the liquidity of commodity sectors to assess trading ease[27][30] - **Evaluation**: The commodity market factors showed mixed performance, with strong trends in energy and metals, weaker trends in agriculture, and high volatility across sectors. Liquidity remained stable overall[27][30] 5. Factor Name: Options Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the implied volatility and skewness of options to infer market sentiment and expectations[35] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Measure the implied volatility levels of options on major indices, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 1000, to gauge market uncertainty[35] - **Skewness**: Analyze the skewness of call and put options to understand market expectations for upward or downward movements[35] - **Evaluation**: The options market factors indicated a divergence in sentiment, with increased optimism for small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) and reduced optimism for large-cap stocks (SSE 50). This suggests a potential shift in market preference post-holiday[35] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors evaluate the valuation and trading activity of the convertible bond market[38] - **Construction Process**: - **Valuation**: Measure the average conversion premium of convertible bonds to assess their relative attractiveness[38] - **Trading Activity**: Track the trading volume and turnover in the convertible bond market to evaluate market interest[38] - **Evaluation**: The convertible bond market factors showed a slight increase in valuation, with trading activity continuing to recover, indicating improving market sentiment[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Market Style Factors - **Style Balance**: Balanced between large-cap and small-cap, as well as value and growth[11][13] - **Style Volatility**: Continued decline in volatility, indicating stability[11][13] 2. Market Structure Factors - **Return Dispersion**: Declined, indicating less variability in sector performance[11][13] - **Sector Rotation**: Slowed down, suggesting reduced changes in sector leadership[11][13] - **Trading Concentration**: Decreased, reflecting a more evenly distributed market[11][13] 3. Market Activity Factors - **Volatility**: Declined, indicating reduced market risk[12][13] - **Turnover Rate**: Decreased, reflecting lower trading activity[12][13] 4. Commodity Market Factors - **Trend Strength**: Strong in energy and metals, weak in agriculture[27][30] - **Basis Momentum**: Highest in metals, declined in other sectors[27][30] - **Volatility**: High across all sectors[27][30] - **Liquidity**: Stable overall[27][30] 5. Options Market Factors - **Implied Volatility**: Increased for both SSE 50 and CSI 1000, indicating higher uncertainty[35] - **Skewness**: Positive for CSI 1000 (small-cap optimism), negative for SSE 50 (large-cap caution)[35] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Valuation**: Slight increase in average conversion premium[38] - **Trading Activity**: Continued recovery in trading volume[38]