Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The supply is likely to shrink, and it's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Also, pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse spreads on the 01 contract. [2][8] - PTA will be in a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX at the cost end. It's advised to hold long PX and short PTA positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be cautious of the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January. [2][8] - MEG shows a weak trend with prices hitting new lows. The willingness to hold positions is decreasing, and the upside space remains unopened. It's recommended to focus on monthly spread positive spreads and exit long MEG and short PTA positions. [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On December 4, 2025, PX price fell. A January Asian spot was traded at $844, and the valuation was $845 per ton, down $3 from December 3. The late - session naphtha price remained strong, with the January MOPJ currently estimated at $552 per ton CFR. [4] - **PTA**: This week, there were basically no changes in PTA devices in mainland China. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 73.7%, and the operating rate calculated by PTA device daily output/(domestic PTA capacity/365) was around 79.3%. [4] - **MEG**: A 1 million - ton/year MEG device in Jiangsu has been shut down recently, and the shutdown will last until the second quarter of 2026. A 1.1 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol device in the US reduced its load to around 70%, and a 360,000 - ton/year device is still under maintenance with no clear restart time. [4] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6906, 4724, 3826, 6268, and 452.6 respectively. The price changes were - 2, - 6, 4, - 16, and 4.5, with percentage changes of - 0.03%, - 0.13%, 0.10%, - 0.25%, and 1.00%. [3] - **Spot**: The previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $845.33 per ton, 4685 yuan per ton, 3813 yuan per ton, $559.75 per ton, and $64.36 per barrel respectively, showing price changes of - 3, - 20, - 16, - 2.25, and - 0.06. [3] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11. [3] Industry Load and Production and Sales - **MEG**: As of December 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.93% (down 0.2% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 72.58% (up 0.55% from the previous period). Since October 1, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 30.075 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons. [6] - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester device in Wujiang has been under maintenance since the beginning of this month, expected to last for one month. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91.6%. On December 4, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average production - to - sales ratio of 30% - 40% by 3:45 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were also weak, with an average production - to - sales ratio of 44% by 3:00 pm. [6][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 0, PTA is 0, and MEG is - 1, indicating a neutral trend for PX and PTA and a weak - downward trend for MEG. [7] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold long PX and short BZ positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse spreads on the 01 contract. The domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), and the PX load is expected to decline due to planned maintenance of some devices. [8] - **PTA**: Hold long PX and short PTA positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. The PTA load is adjusted to 73.7%, and the polyester operating rate remains high at 91.6%. The price will be in a high - level oscillating market but beware of the negative feedback in the industrial chain. [8] - **MEG**: Focus on monthly spread positive spreads and exit long MEG and short PTA positions. The operating rate has dropped to 73%, but with new device commissions approaching, the willingness to hold positions has decreased, and the price has hit a new low. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc., and gives trend judgments and market analysis for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the rubber main contract fluctuated, trading volume decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. The prices of some overseas rubber varieties increased slightly, while the prices of some domestic import varieties decreased. The orders of tire sample enterprises weakened [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [5] Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Short - term event - driven upward with narrowing upside space [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber increased, trading volume increased, and the opening rate of cis - butadiene rubber increased. The price of butadiene increased, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased [10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [12] LLDPE - **Trend**: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LLDPE increased slightly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the inventory of upstream factories accumulated passively. The supply in the near - term is stable, but there is supply - demand pressure in the medium - term [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] PP - **Trend**: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][16] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PP fluctuated slightly, the basis weakened slightly, and the overall market trading volume decreased. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [18] Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Still under pressure [2][20] - **Fundamentals**: The price of caustic soda futures decreased, the basis increased, and the spot market was weak. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand is weak [20][21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [23] Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][25] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pulp increased, trading volume increased, and the net long position of the top 20 members increased. The basis decreased, and the spot market showed a slight improvement [26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [26] Glass - **Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][29] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of glass decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the spot price increased in some areas. The reduction in production capacity has improved market confidence, but overall trading is average [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [30] Methanol - **Trend**: Oscillating with narrowing upside space [2][32] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of methanol decreased slightly, the basis increased slightly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The port inventory decreased significantly, and there is high supply pressure in the short - term [33][35][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [37] Urea - **Trend**: The price center moves up, pay attention to inventory during the day [2][39] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of urea increased, the basis decreased, and the factory price increased in some areas. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the market is supported by fundamentals [40][41][42]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [42] Styrene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: The price of styrene futures increased, the profit of non - integrated and integrated production increased, and the inventory pressure of downstream products was high. The short - term pure benzene market oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [43] Soda Ash - **Trend**: Little change in the spot market [2][46] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of soda ash increased, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [46]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [46] LPG - **Trend**: Under pressure [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LPG decreased, trading volume decreased, and the opening rates of some related industries were stable. The price of CP paper goods decreased [49][54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [53] Propylene - **Trend**: The pattern remains loose [2][49] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of propylene fluctuated slightly, trading volume and positions changed, and the basis of some regions increased. The opening rate of PDH was stable [49]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [53] PVC - **Trend**: Oscillating at a low level [2][59] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PVC was at a low level, the basis was negative, and the spot price was stable. The supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and there is a production reduction expectation [57]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [58] Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Declined at night, weakness reappeared [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of fuel oil decreased, trading volume decreased, and the inventory of the whole market decreased. The spot price of fuel oil decreased [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [61] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Weakened in the short - term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillated narrowly [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased, trading volume decreased, and the inventory decreased. The spot price of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [61] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Short - term valuation repair continues, medium - term oscillating market [2][63] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of the container freight index (European line) fluctuated, the trading volume of the main contract increased, and the spot market freight rate of some shipping companies increased. The overall shipping capacity is not low [63][73][74]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [75] Short - Fiber - **Trend**: Supported by cost, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of short - fiber fluctuated, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The factory's trading volume decreased, and the sales rate decreased [76]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [77] Bottle Chip - **Trend**: Supported by cost, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of bottle chip decreased, the basis increased, and the spot price was stable. The market trading atmosphere was light [76][77]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [77] Offset Printing Paper - **Trend**: Oscillating at a low level [2][79] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of offset printing paper increased, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The demand in the social end has not improved significantly [79][80][82]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [79] Pure Benzene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation [2][83] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly, the inventory of the East China port increased, and the price decreased slightly. The demand is weak in December and may improve after January [83][84]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [84]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report is titled "Pigs: Reducing Volume and Realizing, Industrial Logic Will Return", but no clear core view is presented other than basic data tracking [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 11,430 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [1] - Guangdong spot price is 12,260 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 900 yuan/ton [1] Futures Prices - The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 11,495 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Live Hogs 2603 is 11,205 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Live Hogs 2605 is 11,925 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2601 is 49,893 lots, a decrease of 15,052 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 101,740 lots, a decrease of 5,802 lots from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2603 is 32,662 lots, an increase of 4,905 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 138,362 lots, an increase of 2,391 lots from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2605 is 13,115 lots, a decrease of 374 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 74,155 lots, an increase of 291 lots from the previous day [1] Spreads - The basis of Live Hogs 2601 is - 65 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of Live Hogs 2603 is 225 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of Live Hogs 2605 is - 495 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between Live Hogs 2601 and 2603 is 290 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 75 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between Live Hogs 2603 and 2605 is - 720 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for integer values, representing a neutral view [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 1, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Focus: Analysis of the futures market for black series commodities, including iron ore, steel products, ferroalloys, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to trade in a low range [2][6] - Ferrosilicon is subject to market sentiment and is expected to trade in a low range; ferromanganese silicon has firm ore prices and is also expected to trade in a low range [2][10] - Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a wide range [2][16] - Logs are expected to trade weakly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan or 0.69%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 23,368 lots. Spot prices for most imported ores declined, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis for some contracts increased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar futures (RB2601) closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Hot-rolled coil futures (HC2601) closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.27%, also with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices showed mixed changes, and some basis and spreads changed [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of November 27, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed various trends for different products [6] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils, indicating a neutral outlook Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon remained stable, while some prices for manganese ore increased. Various price spreads changed, including basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in production, inventory, and procurement prices in the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon markets in November [12][15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices for coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, and some basis and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices for different log contracts showed various trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. Spot-futures spreads also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook

Report Summary Overall Market Situation - On November 27, the US stock market closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the futures index showed a volatile pattern. The four major futures index contracts had mixed performance. IF dropped 0.11%, IH declined 0.11%, IC decreased 0.33%, and IM fell 0.08% [1][2]. Futures Index Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing prices of various futures index contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase. For example, IF2512 closed at 4492.6, down 0.11%; IH2512 closed at 2962.4, down 0.11%; IC2512 closed at 6896.2, down 0.33%; IM2512 closed at 7179, down 0.08% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On this trading day, the total trading volume of the futures index rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. IF's total trading volume increased by 3606 lots, IH's by 7008 lots, IC's by 6006 lots, and IM's by 5893 lots. In terms of open interest, IF's total open interest increased by 4902 lots, IH's by 6077 lots, IC's by 5482 lots, and IM's by 2816 lots [2][3]. Futures Index Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM were presented in charts, showing the changes in basis over time for different contracts [5]. Top 20 Member Positions - The data on the increase or decrease of long and short positions of the top 20 members in various futures index contracts were provided. For example, in IF2512, long positions increased by 901 lots with a net change of 4909 lots, and short positions increased by 341 lots [6]. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH was 1, and that of IC and IM was also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7]. - **Important Drivers**: In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The decline of Vanke's stocks and bonds intensified. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%. The A - share trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan [7].

2025 年 11 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：移仓换月，或仍以震荡为主 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 11 月 26 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中国购进至少 10 船美豆，大豆温和上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 11 月 27 日消息：周三，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘温和上涨，主要受到中国采购需求支撑。交易商 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4094 | -23（-0.56%） 4098 -5（-0.12%） | | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2601 | 3015 | +6（+0.20%） -8（-0.26%） 3013 | | | | CBOT大豆01 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The trend strength of the pig futures market is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 11,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 12,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Futures Prices**: Pig 2601 is 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; Pig 2603 is 11,525 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; Pig 2605 is 12,135 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Pig 2601's trading volume is 61,333 lots, down 42,467 lots, and open interest is 133,241 lots, down 6,312 lots; Pig 2603's trading volume is 19,643 lots, down 8,792 lots, and open interest is 110,291 lots, down 3,005 lots; Pig 2605's trading volume is 13,133 lots, down 5,876 lots, and open interest is 60,884 lots, down 878 lots [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Pig 2601's basis is 85 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton; Pig 2603's basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton; Pig 2605's basis is -255 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton. The 1 - 3 spread is 270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the 3 - 5 spread is -610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Information - In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2].

Report Overview - Date: November 5, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience weak oscillations due to sector sentiment [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations influenced by sector sentiment and supply - demand dynamics [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to fluctuate at high levels [2][14] - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.89%. The positions increased by 12,824 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased by 2 yuan/ton, except for domestic ores which remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 futures were 3,044 yuan/ton and 3,265 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%) and 34 yuan (-1.03%) respectively. Spot prices in major cities decreased. The basis increased, and some spreads changed [7] - **News**: In mid - October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.9%, pig iron by 1.3%, and steel increased by 0.8%. On October 30, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed certain changes. Five departments supported commercial real estate REITs issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased while imports also rose slightly [8][9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The basis and various spreads changed [11] - **News**: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea in February 2026. There were price quotes and electricity price changes in the ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon markets. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced [11][12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal increased, while others remained unchanged. Coke spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spreads changed [14] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different degrees of decline. Trading volumes and positions also changed significantly. Spot prices of most log types were stable, with a small number showing slight decreases [17] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with the "boots" gradually landing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic Index Data Tracking - On October 29, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 1.2%, IH rose 0.41%, IC rose 2.06%, and IM rose 1.4% [2] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 11,905 lots, IH decreased by 6,016 lots, IC increased by 8,363 lots, and IM decreased by 23,657 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 439 lots, IH decreased by 762 lots, IC increased by 9,663 lots, and IM decreased by 5,250 lots [2][3] 3.2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1; the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with integer values, and the strength is classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3. Important Drivers - Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest - rate cut caused the market's probability of a December interest - rate cut to plummet from 95% to 65%. U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and digital currencies tumbled briefly during the session, while the U.S. dollar rose. Eventually, the Nasdaq closed up supported by NVIDIA, and the Dow closed down [7] - The A - share market performed strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,000 points, hitting a new high in the rebound; the ChiNext Index soared nearly 3%; the North Securities 50 soared more than 8%, hitting the largest daily increase in 9 months. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7% at 4,016.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93%, the North Securities 50 rose 8.41%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.18%, and the Wind All - A rose 1.16%. The total trading volume of A - shares throughout the day was 2.29 trillion yuan, compared with 2.17 trillion yuan the previous day. The new energy sector exploded, with the energy - storage direction seeing a wave of limit - up stocks. The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively, led by copper and zinc. Computing hardware stocks strengthened again, with many stocks hitting record highs. The quantum technology concept has been strengthening recently, and the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to rise [7] 3.4. Index Futures' Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts vary, such as - 111 for IF2511, 1981 for IF2512, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 135 for IF2511, 1425 for IF2512 [6] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 222 for IH2511, - 1952 for IH2512, etc.; the short - position changes also show variations, like - 497 for IH2511, - 1497 for IH2512 [6] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are diverse, such as 1560 for IC2511, 4388 for IC2512, etc.; the short - position changes also have differences, like 1462 for IC2511, 4920 for IC2512 [6] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 948 for IM2512, - 262 for IM2603, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 585 for IM2512, - 33 for IM2603 [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to continue oscillating, alumina to remain flat in the short - term, and cast aluminum alloy to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,140, down 220 from T - 1. The trading volume was 187,481, down 21,767 from T - 1. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,894, up 16 from T - 1. The LME注销仓单占比 was 13.09%, down 9.62% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,817, down 12 from T - 1. The trading volume was 314,332, up 35,771 from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,575, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume was 2,553, down 4,162 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum - related Premiums**: The Shanghai Bonded Area Premium was 83, unchanged from T - 1. The EU Rotterdam Aluminum Ingot Premium (MB) was 307.5, up 20 from T - 1 [1]. - **Processing Fees**: The Foshan Aluminum Rod processing fee was 220, unchanged from T - 1. The Shandong 1A60 Aluminum Rod processing fee was 100, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. - **Price Differences**: The aluminum ingot scrap - refined price difference was 232, down 72 from T - 1 [1]. Enterprise - related Data - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,114.54, up 6.74 from T - 1. The aluminum spot import profit was - 2,438.43, up 52.5 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,910, unchanged from T - 1. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi was - 120, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 29, up 2 from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - **ADP Employment Data**: As of the four - week period ending October 11, the average number of new private - sector jobs in the US was about 14,000. ADP will start releasing weekly preliminary estimates of the ADP National Employment Report this week [2]. - **"15th Five - Year Plan"**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal mentioned "finance" 17 times and put forward requirements such as "accelerating the construction of a financial power" [2]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].