Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for index futures is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On August 11, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. The trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has warmed up. The total positions of all types of index futures also increased [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and its Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4122.51, up 0.43%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4116, up 0.37% with a basis of - 6.51; IF2509 closed at 4104.8, up 0.43% with a basis of - 17.71; IF2512 closed at 4075.2, up 0.48% with a basis of - 47.31; IF2603 closed at 4044.6, up 0.56% with a basis of - 77.91 [1] - **SSE 50 and its Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2789.9, up 0.03%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2788.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 1.5; IH2509 closed at 2789.4, up 0.01% with a basis of - 0.5; IH2512 closed at 2791, up 0.06% with a basis of 1.1; IH2603 closed at 2790.4, up 0.10% with a basis of 0.5 [1] - **CSI 500 and its Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6391.76, up 1.08%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6368.2, up 1.02% with a basis of - 23.56; IC2509 closed at 6298.8, up 1.07% with a basis of - 92.96; IC2512 closed at 6144.6, up 1.18% with a basis of - 247.16; IC2603 closed at 6006, up 1.20% with a basis of - 385.76 [1] - **CSI 1000 and its Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6943.94, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6925.6, up 1.56% with a basis of - 18.34; IM2509 closed at 6851.2, up 1.61% with a basis of - 92.74; IM2512 closed at 6663.8, up 1.72% with a basis of - 280.14; IM2603 closed at 6478.8, up 1.71% with a basis of - 465.14 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 29586 lots, IH increased by 9620 lots, IC increased by 23858 lots, and IM increased by 55757 lots [2] - **Positions**: The total positions of IF increased by 14212 lots, IH increased by 6800 lots, IC increased by 9202 lots, and IM increased by 25544 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, such as 623 lots for IF2508, 8267 lots for IF2509, etc. The short - position changes also differed, like 1360 lots for IF2508 [5] - For IH, the long - position changes included 557 lots for IH2508, 3754 lots for IH2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] - For IC, the long - position changes were - 549 lots for IC2508, 5137 lots for IC2509, etc. The short - position changes were also different [5] - For IM, the long - position changes were 1995 lots for IM2508, 11368 lots for IM2509, etc. The short - position changes were also distinct [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Before the US CPI data, the market was cautious. The Nasdaq rose and then fell. Lithium mining stocks soared, and gold was under pressure. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. The market was active with more than 4000 stocks rising [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has weak cost support [1]. - Propylene shows short - term weak and volatile trends [2]. - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,823 yesterday with a - 0.83% daily increase and 3,825 at night with a 0.05% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,291 yesterday with a - 0.58% daily increase and 4,296 at night with a 0.12% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,480 yesterday with a - 0.22% daily increase and 6,463 at night with a - 0.26% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,525 yesterday with a - 0.40% daily increase and 6,525 at night with a 0.00% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 75,511 yesterday, a decrease of 8,218 from the previous day, and the open interest was 105,762, an increase of 2,838; for PG2510, the trading volume was 27,905 yesterday, a decrease of 7,248, and the open interest was 87,463, an increase of 2,060; for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,118 yesterday, a decrease of 804, and the open interest was 4,534, an increase of 108 [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 527 (previous day: 495); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 517 (previous day: 485); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 205 (previous day: - 234); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 194); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 219) [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.8% this week (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% this week (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% this week (last week: 48.8%) [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 6, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectations were propane at 526 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day) and butane at 496 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton); the October Saudi CP expectations were propane at 541 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) and butane at 511 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) [11]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, also with an undetermined end - date [12]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant in Shandong having a full - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400 [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. For futures, the prices of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,885 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year), 13,880 yuan/ton (down 25 year - on - year), and 14,170 yuan/ton (down 15 year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,732 hands (down 9,396 from the previous day), 16,849 hands (down 1,854 from the previous day), and 6,879 hands (down 4,350 from the previous day) respectively. The open interests are 35,710 hands (down 2,540 from the previous day), 55,042 hands (up 2,723 from the previous day), and 40,487 hands (down 21 from the previous day) respectively [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 295 yuan/ton (up 105 year - on - year), 300 yuan/ton (up 75 year - on - year), and 10 yuan/ton (up 65 year - on - year) respectively. The spreads between contracts 9 - 11 and 11 - 1 are 5 yuan/ton (down 30 year - on - year) and - 290 yuan/ton (down 10 year - on - year) respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report mainly presents the fundamental data, market trends, and production - inventory situation of asphalt. It shows that the asphalt market has price fluctuations, changes in trading volume and positions, and different trends in production and inventory [1][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of BU2509 was 3,573 yuan/ton, down 2.32% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,549 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of BU2510 was 3,556 yuan/ton, down 2.60% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,530 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 169,138 lots, with an increase of 51,344 lots, and the position was 93,052 lots, a decrease of 23,728 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 140,311 lots, with an increase of 69,332 lots, and the position was 211,967 lots, a decrease of 5,741 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 81,140 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 17 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan. The Shandong - South China spread was 195, with a change of 10, and the East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: As of August 4, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 34.40%, down 0.51% from July 31, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.74%, down 0.13% from July 31 [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Trend Intensity**: The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish sentiment [8]. - **Graphical Trends**: The BU - SC is in high - level shock, the South China warehouse receipts are stable, the asphalt index total position shows a certain trend, the Shandong basis is generally strong, the asphalt follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range, and the regional spot price spread fluctuates and stabilizes [2][11][13]. 3.3 Production and Inventory - **Production**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 56.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (2.4%) compared to the previous week, and an increase of 12.4 tons (28%) compared to the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to July was 1,927.1 tons, an increase of 163.2 tons (9.2%) compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Inventory**: As of August 4, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 72.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to July 31. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 187.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 31 [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The northeast purchase average price is not available, the Jinzhou closing price is 2,350 yuan/ton, the Guangdong Shekou price is 2,430 yuan/ton, and the Shandong corn starch price is 2,840 yuan/ton, with no price changes from the previous day [1] - **Futures Prices**: For C2509, the previous day's closing price was 2,293 yuan/ton (-0.35%), and the overnight closing price was 2,280 yuan/ton (-0.57%); for C2511, the previous day's closing price was 2,264 yuan/ton (-0.26%), and the overnight closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For C2509, the previous day's trading volume was 373,438 hands (-67,815), and the open interest was 1,054,601 hands (+18,363); for C2511, the previous day's trading volume was 51,567 hands (-19,331), and the open interest was 395,745 hands (+1,998). The total trading volume of the corn market was 463,826 hands (-103,480), and the total open interest was 1,705,212 hands (+23,637) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of the corn market were 185,421 hands (-390) [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 09 basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 29 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Corn Prices**: The northern corn collection port price is 2,280 - 2,300 yuan/ton (listed), the container collection port price is 2,330 - 2,360 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); the Guangdong Shekou bulk carrier price is 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), the container new crop quotation is 2,470 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Northeast enterprise corn prices mostly declined, while North China corn prices rebounded [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The price of Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for July - August shipment is 2,130 yuan/ton, the price of Australian sorghum for July - August shipment is 2,430 yuan/ton. The pre - sale price of imported barley for August - September shipment is 2,140 - 2,180 yuan/ton, and for November - December shipment is 2,050 yuan/ton. The price of feed wheat for July delivery is 2,530 yuan/ton, and for August is 2,560 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The downside of lead may be relatively limited [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 0.59% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 33,602 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots, and the trading volume of LME lead was 6,877 lots, an increase of 500 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 52,667 lots, an increase of 223 lots, and the open interest of LME lead was 142,147 lots, a decrease of 2,744 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -32.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.84 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 58,768 tons, an increase of 3,638 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons [1] 3. News - The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for five consecutive months. The "New Fed Wire" said that the June CPI data would not change the Fed's decision [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]