四是保持汇率基本稳定。坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥好汇率对宏观经济、国际收支 的调节功能，综合施策，促进预期平稳，在复杂形势下保持人民币汇率基本稳定。 五是加强风险防范化解。稳妥有序化解重点领域金融风险，持续完善金融风险监测、评估、预警体 系。 近日，中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》），总结前三 季度货币政策执行情况，明确下一阶段政策思路。中国人民银行有关负责人表示，中国人民银行综合运 用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，为经济回升向好和金融市场稳定运行创造了适宜的货币金融 环境。 货币政策逆周期调节效果显现 《报告》显示，今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，在金融总量较快增长的同时，信贷结构 也在不断优化，有力支持了重点领域、重大战略和经济结构的转型升级。 一是保持货币信贷合理增长。综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现等工具，保持 流动性充裕。引导金融机构充分满足实体经济有效信贷需求，提高资金使用效率，提升服务实体经济质 效。 二是推动社会综合融资成本下降。健全市场化的利率调控框架，强化利率政策执行，有效发挥市场 利率定价自律机制作用，带动存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the central bank's renewed mention of "cross-cycle adjustment" suggests a relatively cautious monetary policy stance, with expectations for the banking sector's relative returns to improve in Q4 2025 due to stabilizing interest margins and positive fundamental trends [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overall monetary policy remains moderately loose, but the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a more cautious approach to monetary policy [2]. - With a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, the necessity for significant policy stimulus has decreased, and the likelihood of major rate cuts is low [2]. Credit Growth - The report suggests that credit growth will continue to decline, with Q4 credit growth expected to remain lower than previous levels due to a larger base effect [3]. - In Q3 2025, credit growth decreased by 0.92 trillion yuan year-on-year, with corporate and household loans also showing declines [3]. Interest Margin - The report emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to support banks' net interest margins, which are expected to stabilize [4]. - As of Q3 2025, listed banks' net interest margins have stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs, while asset yields have decreased [4]. Risk Management - The report highlights the need for an orderly resolution of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with an acceleration in mergers and restructuring expected [5]. - The establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is emphasized to enhance financial stability [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including specific stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank [6]. - It also recommends state-owned banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of relative outperformance compared to market benchmarks [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cautious optimism regarding the banking sector's performance in Q4 2025, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving fundamentals despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread to support net interest margins, with a focus on effective monetary policy transmission [9][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies two main investment lines: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including targets like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [4]. 2. Large state-owned banks with solid defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [4]. Banking Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the banking industry, noting a stabilization in interest margins and a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on cross-cycle adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance [9][11]. - It also mentions the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to address risks in small financial institutions, suggesting that mergers and restructuring may accelerate [11]. Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with a focus on maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates and credit [9][10]. - It highlights that the credit growth rate is expected to decline marginally, with a projected loan growth rate of 6.6% in Q3 2025 [9]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread, with specific guidelines for banks to avoid issuing loans at rates lower than government bond yields [9][11]. - It notes that as of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for listed banks has stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs [9][11].

11月11日，央行发布《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》），其中介绍了下一阶 段货币政策主要思路。 相较上一季度货币政策执行报告，《报告》继续提到实施好适度宽松的货币政策，新增"保持社会融资 条件相对宽松"；此外，再次强调做好逆周期调节，同时增加了"跨周期调节"。在充分发挥货币信贷政 策导向作用方面，《报告》新增"研究实施支持个人修复信用的政策措施"等成为新亮点。 逆周期与跨周期调节并重 《报告》在下一阶段货币政策主要思路中指出，平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部 均衡、支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，强化宏观政策取向一致性，做好逆周期和跨周 期调节。 记者注意到，相比央行发布的上一季度货币政策执行报告，《报告》在继续强调"逆周期调节"基础上新 增了"跨周期调节"，或意味着政策不仅着眼于短期经济波动，同时注重中长期的经济平稳健康发展。 招商证券分析师王先爽表示，潘功胜在2025金融街论坛年会发言中，强调继续维持支持性货币政策，未 提及降准降息，表明显性货币政策操作信号需要等待进一步经济数据或资本市场信号触发。 研究实施支持个人修复信用政策 在发挥货币信贷政策导向 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The overall liquidity situation for the year remains stable, with only minor fluctuations expected. The seasonal trends in funding rates align with historical patterns, particularly influenced by major shopping events like Double Eleven [2][3][13]. - The monetary policy stance has not changed, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. The central bank will continue to utilize various tools to maintain liquidity, although the implementation of more effective monetary policy tools may experience delays [3][19]. - The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity in November did not exceed seasonal norms, indicating that the monetary environment remains relatively stable [4][20]. - There is a push for supply-side reforms in small and medium-sized banks, which will require a supportive monetary environment to facilitate risk mitigation and governance improvements [5][25]. - The central bank may guide banks to increase credit issuance in Q4, despite a generally weak credit environment. This guidance is crucial for stabilizing market expectations and supporting weaker credit entities [5][26][30]. Summary by Sections Funding Rate Trends - November funding rates have shown a typical seasonal pattern, with the highest increase of 19 basis points compared to the beginning of the month, consistent with historical data [2][13][14]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy report for Q3 2025 emphasizes the need for both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining liquidity while addressing both short-term fluctuations and long-term goals [3][19]. Credit Issuance - The central bank's potential guidance for increased credit issuance in Q4 is based on the current weak credit conditions and the need to support market stability. The effectiveness of this guidance will depend on the actual credit issuance strength [5][26][30]. Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The focus on supply-side reforms for small and medium-sized banks highlights the importance of a favorable monetary environment to facilitate necessary changes and risk management [5][25].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the domestic economy is steadily improving, while global economic growth remains insufficient, with various risks primarily stemming from external disturbances [2] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is on a steady path, with sufficient support to achieve annual targets, and the effectiveness of demand policies is becoming evident [2] - The global economic outlook is cautious, with insufficient growth momentum, diverse inflation trends, and concerns over fiscal sustainability [2] Inflation - Price levels have shown improvement, maintaining a positive tone compared to previous reports, with a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [2] Exchange Rate - The report emphasizes the need to deepen market-oriented reforms of the exchange rate, highlighting its role as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic balance and international payments [3] Monetary Policy - The report maintains a stance of moderately loose monetary policy while introducing a more comprehensive macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the importance of smooth monetary policy transmission [4] Credit - The report stresses the need to guide banks in consolidating credit support and maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, aligning credit growth with economic and price targets [5] Liquidity - The report continues to advocate for ample liquidity in the market, aiming to stabilize the funding environment and improve the overall monetary financial environment [6] Risk Management - The report expands the scope of macro-prudential support, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, and emphasizes the need for a broader coverage of macro-prudential policies [7]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to implement further monetary easing within the year, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments[1] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual economic development goals[1] - The first window for additional easing measures is anticipated in November, followed by another potential window in January of the following year[1] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The relationship between policy rates and market rates is currently stable, with DR007 maintaining a premium of no more than 10 basis points over the 7-day OMO rate[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach a temporary peak at 1.85%, with a favorable premium range of 30-40 basis points over market rates[2] - Commercial banks' net interest margin was 1.42% as of June 2025, reflecting a slight decline, suggesting potential downward space for deposit rates[2] Group 3: Direct Financing Support - The central bank is shifting focus from total credit volume to structural optimization and quality improvement, promoting direct financing development[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring social financing and money supply growth in relation to nominal economic growth[3] - The evolving financial structure indicates a transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven economic growth, necessitating a broader evaluation of financial metrics[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected financial crises abroad[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not include information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Q3 monetary policy report affirms the economic achievements in the first three quarters but emphasizes the need to "strengthen and consolidate" the domestic economy due to potential challenges such as a slowdown in economic growth momentum and the complexity of the overseas environment [1][6]. - Monetary policy maintains the general tone of "moderate easing," with the focus potentially shifting towards "stabilizing growth." However, there is still uncertainty regarding the full opening of broad - money space due to factors like the cross - cycle perspective and bank net interest margin pressure [1][10][11]. - There may be two expected differences in the bond market. One is related to the impact of changes in the social financing scale structure on bond supply and demand, and the other is about the relationship between guiding the decline of real - economy financing costs and bond market interest rates [2][16]. Summary by Directory 1. "Moderate Easing" Re - understood 1.1 Economic Stability and Policy Reinforcement - The Q3 report acknowledges the economic achievements in the first three quarters, with the removal of the statement about "striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals," indicating a reduced sense of urgency. However, it points out that the domestic economy needs "strengthening and consolidation" due to a slowdown in growth momentum and the complexity of the overseas environment [6]. - The report adds "cross - cycle adjustment" to be equally important as "counter - cycle adjustment," aiming to balance short - term growth and long - term goals [7]. 1.2 The "Next Step" of Monetary Policy - Monetary policy continues the general tone of "moderate easing," with the description changing from "implementing in detail" in Q2 to "implementing well" in Q3, which may affirm the effectiveness of the monetary policy implementation since the first half of the year [10]. - The constraints on preventing capital idling have weakened marginally, and the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate has been significantly relieved. The focus of monetary policy may gradually shift to "stabilizing growth," but there is still uncertainty about the full opening of broad - money space [10][11]. - The exchange rate statement in the Q3 report has changed, and the mention of preventing capital idling has been removed, suggesting a potential shift in policy focus towards stabilizing growth while still maintaining some attention on the balance between supporting the real economy and the health of the banking system [11]. - From the perspective of macro - narrative logic and bank interest margins, the space for broad - money needs further expansion. Currently, it is necessary to "keep social financing conditions relatively loose" and give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of quantity and structure [11][12]. 2. Possible Expected Differences in the Bond Market - Regarding the capital side, although there is uncertainty in the use of aggregate tools, there is no need to worry too much as long as liquidity is kept reasonably abundant. Since the second quarter of this year, the capital side has been in a relatively stable and balanced state, and this trend is expected to continue [2][15]. - There are two possible expected differences in the bond market: - First, the current high level of the domestic social financing scale stock and the changing internal structure seem to be beneficial to bond assets in the short term. However, in the long run, there are expected differences. The decline in credit investment may affect the bank's credit creation ability and the demand for bond allocation, while the bond supply may maintain a certain expansion rhythm [2][16][17]. - Second, guiding the decline of real - economy financing costs does not directly lead to a decline in bond market interest rates. The key to guiding the decline of real - economy financing costs lies in structural tools, and the core of the requirement not to issue loans with after - tax interest rates lower than the same - term treasury bond yields is to enhance the linkage between the asset and liability sides of banks and support banks in stabilizing their net interest margins [18][19].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments on the Chinese economy, highlighting a gentle push towards economic recovery and stability [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Recovery Signals - The central bank's recent actions, including a net injection of 130 billion yuan, have positively influenced market sentiment, akin to a gentle hand supporting the economy [4]. - The third-quarter policy report reassures the market with a commitment to moderate easing, projecting a 5.2% growth in the first three quarters and maintaining a full-year target of 5% [5]. - The collaboration of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies is likened to a sturdy oak tree, indicating resilience against external pressures [5]. Group 2: Financing and Investment Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of social financing scale as a more comprehensive indicator than just loans, reflecting the economy's transition and growth potential [5]. - Social financing growth remains steady at over 8%, indicating that the seeds of "broad credit" are beginning to take root [5]. - The article clarifies misconceptions about deposit rates, stating that while some funds may shift to the stock market, overall deposits have not significantly decreased, merely reflecting structural changes [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The central bank aims for a balanced monetary policy, ensuring that funds flow smoothly to the real economy, akin to chocolate flowing to the needed areas [7]. - The article concludes that the central bank's gentle push is guiding the Chinese economy towards a brighter horizon, with ongoing reforms and openness to foster growth [7].

11月11日，央行发布了《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》。其中，一个时隔一年多再次出现的词，引发市场关注，那就是"跨周 期调节"。 央行表示，将"实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营 造适宜的货币金融环境"。 这是央行时隔一年多重提"跨周期调节"，上一次提及"强化逆周期和跨周期调节"还要追溯至《2024年第一季度中国货币政策执行报 告》。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法種法规 | 提高政策 | 股观审價 | 信放改策 | 金融市场 | 金融机应 | 圆壹家计 | 根行会计 | 夜付线 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国际 | 聞局交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 颜洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 贸务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告燃油 | ...