Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase of 6413 thousand barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending November 7, 2025, and the decrease of 849 thousand barrels per day in net crude oil exports were the main sources of inventory accumulation. After the release of the STEO report this week, the weekly production forecast was raised to a new high of 13.862 million barrels per day, the crude oil processing volume increased by 717 thousand barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded from a low level to 89.4%. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased. However, the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 6413 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 5202 thousand barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 346 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 30 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 798 thousand barrels, compared with 498 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 945 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 4729 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 637 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 643 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 1119 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 277 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 1226 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 84 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 2524 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 633 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.862 million barrels per day, compared with 13.651 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 20.77 million barrels per day, compared with 20.356 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.028 million barrels per day, compared with 8.874 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.018 million barrels per day, compared with 3.71 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.222 million barrels per day, compared with 5.924 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil exports: 2.816 million barrels per day, compared with 4.367 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.973 million barrels per day, compared with 15.256 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 89.4%, compared with 86% in the previous period [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel products may show a volatile trend after challenging the previous low support level, as the arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly, port inventories are accumulating, iron ore valuations are relatively high, the consumption demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the subsequent improvement in apparent demand is difficult. Additionally, recent macro - sentiment has weakened, and iron ore prices have declined while coking coal prices have corrected [3]. - The iron ore market is in a short - term pattern of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". With high global shipments, accumulating port inventories, shrinking steel mill profits, falling hot metal production, and high finished product inventory pressure, the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [22]. - The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustments. However, in the long - term, due to policies restricting coking coal supply elasticity and upcoming winter storage, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be limited. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry may rise [34]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile, as they have returned to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment subsided, but are supported by the cost side [46]. - The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repair. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, without production cuts, the valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high, restricting prices, but there is cost support below [55]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment, but its impact is considered limited as the off - season approaches and the middle - stream inventory is high. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery. Structurally, without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract of glass will tend to decline, but with cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3034, 3095, and 3132 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price changes compared to November 6. The closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3245, 3254, and 3276 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different regions also showed certain changes on November 7 compared to November 6. For example, the汇总 price of螺纹钢 in China was 3226 yuan/ton, and the汇总 price of热卷 in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton [10][12]. - The卷螺差 and基差 of螺纹 steel and hot - rolled coils also had corresponding values and changes [16][10]. - The ratios of螺纹/铁矿 and螺纹/焦炭 remained stable on November 7 compared to November 6 [19]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760.5, 740, and 722 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding基差 values. The prices of different iron ore varieties such as日照PB粉,日照卡粉, and日照超特 also decreased compared to November 6 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: - The日均铁水产量 was 234.22 million tons on November 7, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods. The 45港到港量 increased significantly, and the 45港库存 also continued to accumulate [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the仓单 costs and基差 of coking coal from different sources (such as唐山蒙5,口岸蒙5, etc.) and coke (such as日照港湿熄,晋中湿熄, etc.) had corresponding values and changes [37]. - The期货月差 of coking coal and coke also showed certain trends [37]. - **Fundamentals**: - The即期焦化利润 improved slightly, but most coking plants still suffered serious losses. The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and the number of steel mills under maintenance has increased [34]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On November 7, 2025, the硅铁基差 in Ningxia was - 26, and the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. remained stable or decreased slightly compared to previous periods. The仓单 quantity increased [46]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - The硅锰基差 in Inner Mongolia was 210 on November 7, and the spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes. The仓单 quantity increased significantly [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1210, 1294, and 1363 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as沙河 and Qinghai also changed [56]. - The重碱 and轻碱 market prices in different regions had corresponding values on November 7, and the价差 between重碱 and轻碱 also varied by region [59]. - **Fundamentals**: - The glass cold - repair expectation may lead to a weakening of the rigid demand for soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to long - term, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high [55]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1091, 1225, and 1315 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as Shahe and Hubei also changed [84]. - **Fundamentals**: - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect market supply and sentiment, but the impact is limited due to the approaching off - season and high middle - stream inventory. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery [83].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Chemical and Textile Industries - The soda ash operating rate remained stable at 84.9%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11][12]. - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The operating rate for polyester filament remained stable at 91%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [11]. Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21][22]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week [21]. Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass production remained stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [31]. - Asphalt operating rate increased by 1.5% week-on-week [31]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44][49]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production Tracking - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11]. - PTA operating rates increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11]. Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week, but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.7% [21]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices declined [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the steel industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The current week saw a good recovery in the apparent demand for the five major steel products, approaching last year's levels, but the off - balance sheet demand for steel is lower year - on - year. The inventory of plates is high, and there are expectations of blast furnace production cuts in Tangshan. If the production cuts can relieve the inventory pressure of plates, steel prices are expected to stabilize. The carbon element cost at the cost end is supportive, and iron ore is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, which may lead to an expansion of the ratio of steel to ore. Steel prices have fallen significantly previously, and steel mill profits have declined. Before the plate inventory is relieved, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3,000 and 3,200 yuan respectively and then enter a sideways consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, continue to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and gradually exit the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Steel mill profits will continue to converge before the steel production and inventory are cleared [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of steel products in different regions and processes showed different trends. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1 tons, an increase of 2.9% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [2]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.4 to 9.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7 tons, an increase of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.3 to 226.0 tons, an increase of 2.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 11.2 to 326.7 tons, an increase of 3.5% [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the iron ore industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, iron ore futures bottomed out and stabilized. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first decrease and then increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, pig iron production decreased from a high level, and the steel mills' demand for restocking weakened. The steel production decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, the inventory decreased, and the post - holiday demand gradually recovered but was lower than expected. The port inventory increased, the port handling volume decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased, increasing the inventory pressure. Looking forward, due to the weak operation of steel prices, the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. The iron ore market is changing from balanced and tight to loose, and the weak performance of finished products will drag down raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, with the reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly declined. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 5.5 to 824.9 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 to 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 17.3%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 126.0 to 3333.5 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily port handling volume of 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decrease of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 5.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port inventory increased by 54.7 to 14423.59 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the coke and coking coal industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, coke futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot market's rhythm was inconsistent with the futures market. The mainstream coke enterprises' second - round price increase was implemented, and there is still a possibility of further price increases. The coking coal price rebounded from the bottom, providing cost support, but the coking enterprises' losses led to a decline in production. The steel mill's pig iron output decreased from a high level, steel prices were weak, and downstream demand was not strong during the peak season. The coking plant and steel mill inventories decreased, while the port inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the production reduction in the Mongolian coal pithead and the increase in Shanxi's auction prices have led to concerns about supply, causing coal and coke to rebound from the bottom. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Last week, coking coal futures rose strongly, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The Mongolian coal quotation continued to rise. After a slight decline in the domestic coking coal market after the holiday, it began to rebound, and downstream procurement and restocking increased. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The imported Mongolian coal's customs clearance volume decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotation was strong. The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decline, and there was a restocking demand after significant inventory reduction after the holiday. The coal mine, coal washery, and steel mill inventories decreased, while the coking plant, port, and port - side inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short - term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the price of the coke 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1758 yuan/ton, and the price of the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1249 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.9 to 848.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 4.7 to 433.5 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [8]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory remained unchanged at 891.9 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.4 to 58.6 tons, an increase of 2.4%, the steel mill's coke inventory decreased by 6.3 to 633.2 tons, a decrease of 1.0%, and the port inventory increased by 4.9 to 200.1 tons, an increase of 2.5% [8]. The Fenwei coal mine's clean coal inventory decreased by 9.9 to 90.3 tons, a decrease of 9.9%. The all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increased by 32.3 to 1029.7 tons, an increase of 3.2%, the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 5.4 to 783.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%, and the port inventory increased by 2.9 to 275.7 tons, an increase of 1.1% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly. The US existing - home sales index in August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, reaching a five - month high, and mortgage rate cuts boosted the housing market. Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting was held on the 29th, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. LME copper inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 837 tons to 293,211 tons, and domestic copper social inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons. Due to the approaching holiday, downstream purchases were cautious. The impact of the mine accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has not been fully eliminated, and it will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. The copper quarterly average price is expected to rise, and investors are advised to go long on dips. They can also focus on the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and international markets [1]. Aluminum - Alumina was oscillating weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,878 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, and open interest increasing by 11,494 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum was oscillating strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20,770 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.31%, and open interest decreasing by 2,320 lots to 202,000 lots. Aluminum alloy was also oscillating strongly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,982 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, short - position holders took profits and reduced positions, and the downward pressure on alumina eased. Investors are advised to operate with light positions, avoid shorting at low levels, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Due to the double - festival and typhoon - related shutdowns, the processing industry's holiday this year is slightly longer than last year. The market is pinning its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. During the holiday, the US will release September ISM manufacturing PMI and non - farm payroll data, and investors should be cautious about large external market fluctuations. They are advised to hold light positions during the holiday and focus on the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots during the holiday and the inventory - consumption trend after the holiday [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.12% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.78% to 122,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 96 tons to 25,057 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 325 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable. Stainless steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the mainstream markets at 984,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. The cost of ferronickel increased, strengthening cost support, but supply increased month - on - month. In the new energy sector, ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but cobalt policies may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The weekly social inventory of primary nickel in LME and domestic markets increased slightly. Due to macro factors, supply - side disruptions, and rising raw material prices, the bottom of nickel prices may rise slightly, but inventory remains a resistance to price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of flat - copper was 82,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from September 26th; the premium of flat - copper remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 74,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong decreased by 270 yuan to 2,284 yuan; the prices of oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai decreased by 200 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,114 tons to 292,371 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons to 21.6 million tons [3]. Lead - Market prices: On September 29th, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from September 26th; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China decreased by 10 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 600 tons to 218,825 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts decreased by 2,818 tons to 31,946 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: On September 29th, the Wuxi quotation was 20,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 26th; the Nanhai quotation was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi spread increased by 10 yuan to - 70 yuan; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 515,600 tons, and the SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.5 million tons to 59.2 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons to 7.2 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan from September 26th; the price of 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased by 50 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 826 tons to 29,008 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 21,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% from September 26th; the SMM 0 spot price was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 12.84 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 272,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from September 26th; the SMM spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,300 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 429 tons to 6,559 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 tons to 2,670 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventories, SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][16][24][30][36][42]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating significantly due to high imports and current inventories. The domestic supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can support after the domestic supply returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is likely to experience a valuation decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, the number of maintenance activities decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20, the daily changes in动力煤期货price were 0,江苏现货price increased by 25,华南现货price increased by 10,鲁南折盘面price decreased by 5,西南折盘面price remained unchanged,河北折盘面price decreased by 60,西北折盘面price remained unchanged, CFR中国and CFR东南亚prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力基差decreased by 5, and盘面MTO利润remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Situation**: Port inventories are high, and the domestic supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to focus on the demand - supply balance after the domestic supply returns [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,东北亚乙烯price remained unchanged,华北LLprice increased by 20,华东LLprice remained unchanged,华东LDprice decreased by 25,华东HDprice decreased by 30, LL美金and LL美湾prices remained unchanged,进口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差increased by 10,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓decreased by 40 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is different in different regions. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance activities in August decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,山东丙烯price decreased by 20,东北亚丙烯price remained unchanged,华东PPprice decreased by 40,华北PPprice decreased by 15,山东粉料price decreased by 10,华东共聚price decreased by 28, PP美金and PP美湾prices remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,主力期货price increased by 40,基差remained unchanged,两油库存remained unchanged, and仓单decreased by 100 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, and the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the downstream orders are average [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 14 to August 20,西北电石price remained unchanged,山东烧碱price remained unchanged,电石法 - 华东price decreased by 20,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南, and电石法 - 西北prices remained unchanged,进口美金价（CFR中国）remained unchanged,出口利润remained unchanged,西北综合利润remained unchanged,华北综合利润remained unchanged, and基差(高端交割品) remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]