1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the current winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery. Recently, the futures market has mainly traded based on the delivery cost logic. With the support of delivery costs, the valuation of the 07 contract still has room for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short sell far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Contracts**: On June 19, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2507 contract closed at 798 yuan/m³, up 2.5 yuan/m³ (0.31%) from the previous day; the log 2509 contract was at 794 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan/m³ (- 0.13%); the log 2511 contract was at 791.5 yuan/m³, down 5 yuan/m³ (- 0.63%) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The 7 - 9 spread was 4 yuan/m³, up 3.5 yuan/m³; the 9 - 11 spread was 2.5 yuan/m³, up 4 yuan/m³; the 7 - 11 spread was 6.5 yuan/m³, up 7.5 yuan/m³. The 07 contract basis was - 48 yuan/m³, down 2.5 yuan/m³; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/m³, up 1 yuan/m³; the 11 contract basis was - 41.5 yuan/m³, up 5 yuan/m³ [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 19 compared with the previous day, with a 0% change. The ex - factory prices of imported logs in the international market also remained stable [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.193 yuan on June 19, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 778.59 yuan, up 0.56 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In May, the port freight volume was 195.5 million m³, up 22.8 million m³ (13.20%) from April. The number of departing ships was 58, down 5 (- 7.94%) from the previous month [2]. - **Weekly Inventory**: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million m³, up 6 million m³ (1.77%) from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 201 million m³, up 9.5 million m³ (4.96%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 113.31 million m³, up 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of June 13, the average daily log出库 volume in China was 5.98 million m³, down 0.33 million m³ (- 5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.3 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (- 2%), and in Jiangsu, it was 1.9 million m³, down 0.38 million m³ (- 17%) [3].

Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.2% to $9,650.5/ton; SHFE copper rose 0.01% to 78,610 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import maintained a large loss. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, the fourth time this year. Fed Chair Powell said the US economy is stable, tariffs may push up prices, and inflation may rise in the coming months. Inventory: LME down 200 tons to 107,350 tons; Comex up 1,400 tons to 181,400 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts down 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts down 582 tons to 4,162 tons. Demand slowed in the off - season. The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may increase concerns about the global economy. The market is in a short - term shock pattern, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. AO2509 closed at 2,910 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, with an open interest increase of 4,326 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated strongly. AL2507 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with an open interest decrease of 11,246 lots to 187,000 lots. The aluminum alloy also showed a strong trend. AD2511 closed at 19,810 yuan/ton, up 0.76%, with an open interest increase of 133 lots to 9,257 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,205 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot spot premium was 190 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina plants continued to resume production. The electrolytic aluminum demand structure was further differentiated. The rod - ingot inventory trends were different, and the low domestic and foreign warehouse receipts supported the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the AD - AL spread convergence [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.07% to $15,095/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.6% to 119,050 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 204,120 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons to 22,139 tons. The LME 0 - 3 months premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium rose 150 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. Indonesia plans to sanction IMIP for environmental violations. The nickel ore price remained strong. Stainless steel production was cut in China and Indonesia, but the weekly inventory was still increasing. In the short - term, focus on nickel ore premium and primary nickel inventory; in the medium - term, the fundamentals may be bearish due to demand constraints [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On June 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the premium dropped 50 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 72,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.3 million tons [4]. Aluminum - On June 18, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the Nanhai price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The spot premium was 190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. LME inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,774 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [5]. Nickel - On June 18, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate remained unchanged at 120,925 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 816 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 77 tons, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. Zinc - On June 18, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 21,995 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The domestic spot premium average was 240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The上期所 inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [6]. Tin - On June 18, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 263,440 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1%. The SMM spot price was 264,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The上期所 inventory decreased by 265 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 20 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - The report presents spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10] 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] 3.3 LME Inventory - LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [23][25][27] 3.4 SHFE Inventory - SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are presented [30][32][34] 3.5 Social Inventory - Social inventory charts for copper (including bonded area), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [36][38][40] 3.6 Smelting Profit - Charts display the copper concentrate index, copper rough processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of experience; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [50][51]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper was oscillating strongly, up 0.11% to $9,649/ton, while SHFE copper主力 declined 0.08% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained closed. US economic data was weak, and the probability of a June interest rate cut was low. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. Due to the off - season and high prices, downstream procurement was cautious. The weak dollar and potential US tariffs on copper provided some support. The copper price was facing a directional choice, and if it effectively broke through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it might rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum were oscillating strongly. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the cost of the ore end provided short - term support. Electrolytic aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the increase in US import aluminum tariffs supported the aluminum price [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.94%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.29%. Nickel ore prices were stable. The stainless - steel industry chain had weak demand, and the supply side had production cuts. The new energy sector had weak supply and demand. The market was mainly in a short - term oscillating state, lacking new driving factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed price trends, macro - economic data, inventory changes, demand situations, and factors affecting prices, and gave price resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed price trends, supply - demand relationships of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and factors supporting the price [2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed price trends, inventory changes, and the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel and new energy industries, and judged the market state [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data of copper in different markets and time points, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [3]. - **Aluminum**: Presented price, inventory, and other data of aluminum, such as changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data of nickel, including changes in electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and nickel ore prices, and inventory levels [4]. - **Zinc**: Showed price, inventory, and other data of zinc, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. - **Tin**: Displayed price, inventory, and other data of tin, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Included charts of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Contained charts of social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Included charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][45]. 4. Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional qualifications, and achievements [48][49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, the overseas quotation continues to decline, and the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists. The arrival of goods at ports is expected to resume this week, the current downward trend of the futures market continues, the price is close to the phased bottom, and the previous short positions can be held. It is recommended to participate in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 27 compared to May 26, with declines of - 2.58%, - 1.27%, and - 0.82% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 also decreased, while the basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased. Most spot prices of different types of logs in ports remained stable, except for the 4A large radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by - 2.44%. The overseas quotes of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly from 7.170 to 7.187, and the import theoretical cost increased from 776.13 yuan to 777.89 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In April, the port shipment volume increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From February 16th to February 23rd, the total inventory of Chinese ports decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.59%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 1.11%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 1.70% [3] 3.5 Demand: - From February 16th to May 23rd, the daily average log出库 volume in China increased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 3% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that exchange rates are a significant factor affecting inflation and demand in emerging market economies [1]

| 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2 26日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 763.5 | 777.5 | -14.0 | -1.80% | | | 原木2509 | 783.5 | 791.5 | -8.0 | -1.01% | | | 原木2511 | 789.5 | 795.5 | -6.0 | -0.75% | | | 7-9价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -4.0 | -2.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.0 | -18.0 | -8.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -13.5 | -27.5 | 14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -33.5 | -41.5 | 8.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -39.5 | -45.5 | 6.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, it is recommended to buy IF index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy. The risk - preference of the stock market has gradually recovered, and one can also choose the right time to go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market will fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait for significant price corrections to go long. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. Copper may rise in the short - term, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc has a potential downward risk, lead may decline further, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, tin's price center may move down, lithium carbonate may run weakly, alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and stainless steel is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20]. - For black building materials, steel has an over - supply pattern, and iron ore price may oscillate weakly. Glass and soda ash are expected to be weak, and for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is advisable to wait and see. Industrial silicon may decline further [23][24][25][27][31]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended to be operated with a neutral or short - biased mindset. Crude oil is in the range of short - selling on rallies. Methanol, urea, PVC are expected to decline, and ethylene glycol, PTA, and PX are in the raw material de - stocking logic. Polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to oscillate [37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts. For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels. For oils and fats, they are expected to oscillate. For sugar, the price may decline, and for cotton, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [51][52][54][57][58][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the ChiNext Index down 0.80%, etc. The two - market trading volume decreased by 145.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. There were multiple macro news, and the margin trading balance decreased by 7.529 billion yuan [2]. - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, dividend yields, and futures basis ratios of different indices were provided. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3]. - The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. There were news about tariff delay and Moody's maintaining China's sovereign credit rating. The central bank conducted a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [5][6]. - The 5 - month LPR cut was in line with expectations. The short - term bond market will fluctuate mainly, and the long - term interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to enter on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.29%. COMEX gold rose 0.18%, and COMEX silver fell 0.16%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 98.95 [7]. - The Japanese central bank's annual meeting is expected to increase the expectation of further interest rate hikes. The gold price remains strong, and the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds increased. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait and see for silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME was closed, and the SHFE copper price oscillated. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the spot was in short supply. The copper price may rise in the short - term and is affected by trade negotiations in the medium - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: LME was closed, and the SHFE aluminum price oscillated. The domestic inventory continued to decline. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16%. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a potential downward risk [12]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.39%. The recycled lead production decreased, and the lead price may decline further [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price center may move down [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may run weakly [17]. - **Alumina**: The index fell 3.44%. The spot price in some regions rose. It is recommended to short on rallies [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fell slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the cost provides support. It is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [20]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The over - supply pattern is difficult to change [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price fell 1.60%. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. The price may oscillate weakly [24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass spot price fell, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand is expected to decline. Both are expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon price fell 0.87%, and ferrosilicon price fell 0.11%. The demand is weakening, and it is advisable to wait and see [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell 3.85%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price may decline further [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation, and the price broke through the support level. It is recommended to operate with a neutral or short - biased mindset [35][37]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI rose 1.56%, Brent fell 0.34%, and INE rose 1.76%. The oil price is in the range of short - selling on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The 09 - contract price rose 2 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to short on rallies [40]. - **Urea**: The 09 - contract price fell 11 yuan/ton. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [41]. - **PVC**: The 09 - contract price rose 11 yuan. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The 09 - contract price fell 10 yuan. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is high. The inventory is decreasing [43][44]. - **PTA**: The 09 - contract price rose 8 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The processing fee is supported [45]. - **Para - Xylene**: The 09 - contract price rose 22 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The price fell. The supply may be under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The price fell. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [49]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The price rose in some regions. The short - term price is weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price mostly rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly improving. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic futures price oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the cost is easy to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels [53][54]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate [55][57]. - **Sugar**: The futures price was weakly oscillating. The international supply may increase, and the domestic price may decline [58]. - **Cotton**: The futures price fell. The downstream opening rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [59].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 关注微信公众号 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月20日 | 2 19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 776.5 | 783.0 | -6.5 | -0.83% | | | 原木2509 | 791.0 | 794.0 | -3.0 | -0.38% | | | 原木2511 | 796.5 | 797.0 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -11.0 | -3.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -26.5 | -33.0 | 6.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -41.0 | -44.0 | 3.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -46.5 | -47.0 | 0.5 | | | | 日照港 ...