2025年6月18日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 以伊冲突继续扩大，原油大涨超4%，商品反弹情绪较强，风险偏好者可考虑逢高试空 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 6月13日 6月16日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1536.84点，较上期下跌7.94% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1697.63点，较上期上涨4.6% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1307.92点，较上期上涨16.4% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2908.68点，较上期上涨33.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）2230.99点，较上期下跌31.55% 6月13日 6月13日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2088.24点，较上期下跌152.11点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1243.05点，较上期上涨7.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1844USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.62% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线4120USD/FEU，较上期下跌26.51% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1488.87点， ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月18日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 机关 | 较前一日变化 | 2.22 | IF期现价差 | -1.78 | 65.90% | 55.90% | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 3.46 | 38.90% | 42.70% | -3.15 | 期现价差 | 89.30% | 81.10% | IC期现价差 | -2.51 | 9.10 | -11.47 | IM期现价差 | 8.59 | 90.00% | 62.70% | | 1.20% | 次月-崇月 | -41.00 | 0.00 | 6.70% | 11.80% | 委員-录 ...

| 硅铁 (SF509) | | 5428 | 5264 | 164 | 3.12% | 79.10% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐(SM509) | | 5720 | 5536 | 184 | 3.32% | 55.60% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | | 3090 | 2981 | 109 | 3.66% | 51.80% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | 热卷(HC2510) | | 3190 | 3093 | 97 | 3.14% | 55.60% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12509) | | 766 | ୧୦୦ | 67 | 9.64% | 52.30% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2509) | | 1347 | 1366 | -19 | -1.36% | 35.17% | 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, ...

山东标品基差(+80) 500 300 100 -300 -500 s 疯皮期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/18 | | 指标 | 5/19 | 6/9 | 6/13 | 6/16 | 6/17 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3502 | 3488 | 3628 | 3667 | 3644 | -23 | 156 | | | BU06 | 3502 | 3516 | 3600 | 3650 | 3381 | -269 | -135 | | | BU09 | 3430 | 3488 | 3628 | 3667 | 3644 | -23 | 156 | | | BU12 | 3231 | 3320 | 3469 | 3499 | 3482 | -17 | 162 | | 据面 | BU03 | 3227 | 3267 | 3394 | 3423 | 3379 | -44 | 112 | | | 成交量 | 349940 | 463328 | 758434 | ...

| 交易代码 | 当月基差 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 较昨日增减 | 再次月基差 | 基差率 | 次月基差 | 当月合约 | 名称 | 现货价格来源 | 0.44% | SMM 1#电解铜 | -0.27% | 78050 | 77850 | 78645 | 铜 | CU | 795 | 78300 | 345 | રેત્રે ર | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | SMM A00铝 | 1.18% | 240 | 20390 | 20175 | 20030 | 20630 | AL | -0.32% | 455 | 600 | 锌 | ZN | 0.92% | 21520 | -0.40% | 22000 | SMM 0#锌锭 | 200 | 480 | ર્ભર | 21345 | 21800 | ...

| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/17 | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/10 | 3431 | 3358 | 3518 | 73 | -160 | 87 | | 2025/06/11 | 3414 | 3348 | 3524 | 66 | -176 | 110 | | 2025/06/12 | 3496 | 3461 | 3609 | 35 | -148 | 113 | | 2025/06/13 | 3671 | 3625 | 3785 | 46 | -160 | 114 | | 2025/06/16 | 3695 | 3620 | 3829 | 75 | -209 | 134 | | 变化 | 24 | -5 | 44 | 29 | -49 | 20 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周高硫裂解震荡，原油大幅上涨，高硫伊朗供应占比较大，油品利润中表现较好。380月差 震荡， 7-8月 ...

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| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 974 | 1159 | -15 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | -6 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 1577957 | 185 | -9 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 31035 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) -258842 | 1472359 | 23675 纯碱前20名净持仓 | | -10586 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 6565 | -246268 | -11225 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | | -77 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 7 | -2 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -58 | 3 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 51 | 25 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 70 | 6 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1210 | 10 华中重碱(日,元/吨) ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-17 一、指数走势 06 月 16 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.35%，收于 3388.73 点，成交额 4815.94 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.41%，收于 10163.55 点，成交额 7334.81 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.68%，成交额 2530.88 亿元，其中开盘价 6089.96，收盘价 6147.46，当日最高价 6151.51，最低价 6089.96； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.48%，成交额 1709.89 亿元，其中开盘价 5725.0，收盘价 5767.81，当日最高价 5775.95，最低价 5725.0； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.25%，成交额 2468.61 亿元，其中开盘价 3853.62，收盘价 3873.8，当日最高价 3876.17，最低价 3853.62； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 688.11 亿元，其中开盘价 2666.82，收盘价 2685.01，当日最高价 2687.11，最低价 2664.43。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） 图表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels in the asphalt market have prompted traders to utilize futures tools for risk management, indicating a bullish market outlook despite low production and demand constraints [1][2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 2024, winter storage of asphalt is at 850,000 tons, marking a multi-year low. Both social and factory inventories remain at historically low levels, limiting production release due to low profit margins and operating rates [2]. - The winter storage price of 3,420 CNY/ton is aligned with the cost price of 3,450 CNY/ton for resources in Q1 2025, suggesting limited downside for prices unless there is a significant drop in crude oil prices [2]. Price Comparison and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt futures relative to Brent crude oil is at 0.9, which is considered reasonable based on historical low inventory scenarios from 2018 and 2022 [2]. - The basis for buying hedges was 50 CNY/ton, with historical data indicating that even during low inventory periods, the basis could fall below -200 CNY/ton in Q1 [2]. Trading Operations - On December 12, 2024, a company bought 2,000 contracts of March asphalt futures at 3,510 CNY/ton, with a current spot price of 3,560 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 50 CNY/ton [3]. - By early February 2025, the basis weakened to -197 CNY/ton, with futures rising to 3,797 CNY/ton and spot prices increasing to 3,600 CNY/ton. The company closed its futures position and procured products from the spot market [3][4]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The company realized a profit of 5,740,000 CNY from the futures market, while incurring a loss of 800,000 CNY from the spot market, effectively covering the losses with the gains from the futures [3][4]. Significance - The company's strategic market analysis and strong operational capabilities in the futures market allowed it to mitigate price risks, enhance competitiveness, and stabilize operations, serving as a valuable reference for the asphalt industry and beyond [5].