【今日美豆震荡，国内豆类市场多面博弈】今日，美豆盘面震荡运行，变化有限。国内豆粕盘面先跌后 反弹，宏观影响减弱后，市场关注后续供应紧张；菜粕盘面明显走强，前期反弹后修复性上涨。豆粕和 菜粕月间价差均偏强，源于市场对后续供应的担忧。 基本面来看，截至6月5日当周，美豆新作优良率 达68%，旧作出口检验量54.7万吨，处历史同期高位。4月美豆压榨量550.8万吨，环比降2.03%，近期压 榨利润走弱，后续生柴政策或调整。美豆旧作基本面仍偏利好。 巴西方面，此前农户卖货进度先加快 后放缓，总体进度偏低，价格压力显现。3月巴西大豆压榨量516万吨，近期下降，因中国买船多，国内 压榨利润弱，预计出口将上调。 阿根廷油厂停工，后续国内压榨增速或放缓，终端产品价格企稳，大 豆出口可能增加。国际市场大豆供应压力集中在南美，出口压力较大。 国内现货偏宽松，油厂开机率 增加，供应充足，提货量上升，库存累积，成交一般。截至6月6日，油厂大豆压榨量224.46万吨，开机 率63.1%，大豆库存610.29万吨，较上周增4.7%。豆粕库存38.25万吨，较上周增28.36%。 国内菜粕需求 转弱，油厂开机率下降，但供应仍足，预计偏震荡 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a growing number of families facing difficulties in selling multiple properties, leading to a shift in perception regarding real estate as an investment tool [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 2022, 41.5% of urban households in China owned two or more properties, indicating a fundamental change in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market [1]. - The total number of commercial housing units in China exceeded 182 million by December 2022, far surpassing market demand, reflecting a significant oversupply issue [6]. - Many families that previously invested in multiple properties are now struggling to sell them, with the once-booming market now characterized by stagnation and declining prices [3][5]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Young people are increasingly opting out of homeownership, viewing it as a burden rather than a status symbol, which contrasts with previous generations' perspectives [6][11]. - Economic pressures from the pandemic have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with many families prioritizing savings over spending, further dampening demand for real estate [8][9]. - The rental market is also under pressure, particularly in lower-tier cities, where demand is significantly lower than in major urban centers [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Families with multiple properties are facing increased financial strain due to stagnant incomes and ongoing mortgage obligations, raising concerns about potential defaults [9]. - The anticipated implementation of property taxes may further exacerbate financial burdens for those owning multiple properties, potentially leading to a rush to sell and further market decline [9][16]. - The situation mirrors historical trends seen in Japan and South Korea, where real estate bubbles led to economic downturns and social issues, although China's circumstances are viewed as more favorable due to effective macroeconomic policies [11][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market, aiming for a more rational and stable environment moving forward [16]. - The role of real estate is shifting back to fulfilling basic housing needs rather than serving as a primary investment vehicle, aligning with the changing attitudes of younger generations [16].

公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 12 日 【外盘情况】 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.19%至 1040.75 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.5%至 300.8 美金/短吨 国际大豆整体维持丰产格局，巴西大豆产量维持高位，同时压榨方面表现一般， 后续出口压力仍然存在。阿根廷产量同样维持高位，卖货继续有所加快，压榨受产能 影响有所下降。美豆新作播种及生长情况整体良好，卖货进度有所放缓，总体压力仍 1 / 13 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 然明显。国内大豆到港及开工压力有所增加，需求方面整 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 螺纹钢期货上涨与后市看法 2025年6月11日，螺纹钢期货价格上涨，收盘价为2991元/吨 ，这一涨势背后有着复杂的原因。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从宏观经济来看，国内经济持续稳定复苏，基础设施建设项目稳步推进，对螺纹钢的需求有明显拉 动。就像大规模的交通、能源项目建设，会大量消耗螺纹钢，为其需求提供坚实支撑。 政策因素也不可忽视，政府在环保上的严格要求，致使部分小型钢厂限产或停产，市场供应减少。 并且，相关产业政策的调整，也影响着螺纹钢的生产和流通。 在市场供需方面，虽然处于夏季传统淡季，需求有所减弱，但供应端因成本上升和政策限制，产量 也在收缩。同时，近期铁矿石、焦炭等原材料价格波动，使得钢厂生产成本上升，限制了供应增加， 也对价格有一定支撑。 此外，市场预期也在发挥作用，投资者对未来经济和政策走向保持乐观，认为需求将进一步增加， 供应受限的情况还会延续，这种预期提前反映 ...

CRO 行业景气度跟踪 - 实验猴市场供需分析 20250611 摘要 2022 年至 2024 年，国内实验猴总存栏量小幅增长，食蟹猴占比稳定 增加，但猕猴数量先增后降，受实验猴价格波动影响，下游用户策略调 整是主因。 国内繁殖种群数量逐年上升，食蟹猴为主要增长点，但增幅有限。猕猴 种群虽有政策支持，但总量仍偏低，无法有效缓解市场对实验猴的需求 压力。 实验猴价格在 2022 年达到顶峰后回落，影响市场供需。高价促使下游 用户转向猕猴，但价格回落后趋势放缓，市场整体仍供不应求。 国内商品猴存栏量在 2022-2024 年间波动，受实验猴使用数量影响。 2023 年使用量下滑导致存栏增加，2024 年库存消耗殆尽，存栏下降。 国内一岁以下婴猴数量逐年增长，食蟹猴出生数稳定增加，但老龄化问 题突出，12 岁以上食蟹猕占比最高，影响整体繁殖率和新生小猕供给。 国内实验猴市场销量波动大，2023 年因客户观望情绪销量骤降，2024 年显著回升。食蟹猴销量占比高，猕猴销量逐年增加，但总量仍较低。 实验用食蟹猴价格经历显著波动，2023 年高价急转直下，目前维持 10 万元左右。市场需求及外部因素对价格影响巨大，未来或 ...

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In early June 2025, new home transaction volumes in 40 key cities decreased by 36% month-on-month, with significant contraction in first-tier cities [1][3]. - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, with absolute transaction volumes still higher than new homes, indicating overall market weakness [1][4]. - In Shanghai, second-hand home transactions showed a declining trend, with April's volume barely maintaining above 20,000 units, dropping further in May [8][9]. Price Trends - The price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have been fluctuating downwards, falling below levels seen before policy changes in February 2025 and September 2024, suggesting potential further price declines in the coming months [1][6][7]. - In Shanghai, the proportion of high-end second-hand homes priced above 11 million yuan decreased from 3.7% in April to 2.63% in May, while the proportion of affordable homes under 3 million yuan increased [11]. Inventory and Supply Issues - Most cities have inventory turnover cycles exceeding 18 months, with insufficient new home supply leading to increased absolute inventory levels [1][23]. - Private enterprises hold less than 20% of the land market, while state-owned enterprises dominate with 80%, indicating a lack of competition and innovation in land acquisition [22]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable until the end of 2025, but challenges may arise in 2026 due to limited high-quality land supply and the potential exhaustion of high-end buyers [18][30]. - The government is anticipated to implement further policies to stabilize prices in core cities, with a focus on maintaining market confidence [41]. Policy Impact - Continuous policy support is deemed necessary for stabilizing price expectations in core cities, with recommendations to invest in development stocks during key political meetings [2][31]. - The impact of rumored restrictions on resale has affected market sentiment, leading to some developers offering discounts on existing properties [32]. Regional Differences - The performance of the real estate market varies significantly across different regions, with core urban areas showing more resilience compared to suburban regions [12][25]. - The price dynamics in Shanghai's inner and outer rings reflect a disparity, with inner ring prices continuing to rise while outer ring prices remain stagnant [15]. Transaction Volume and Market Dynamics - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is expected to face challenges due to various factors, including limited quality supply and economic uncertainties [33]. - The overall trend in the second-hand market shows a gradual increase in transaction volume, driven by a growing inventory base and suppressed new home supply [34]. Conclusion - The real estate market in China is currently characterized by a mix of stability and underlying challenges, with significant reliance on government policies to navigate through the complexities of supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [30][41].

| | 烧碱产业日报 | | | 2025-06-11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2332 | 8 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 261587 | 4321 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -27085 | -4825 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | 393962 | -41692 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2312 | 42 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2372 | 46 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -27085 | -4825 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 880 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 960 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2750 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 387 | -39 | | 上游情况 ...

免责声明 红枣产业日报 2025-06-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) -70 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 8925 | | 78487 | 25 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 0 | 126 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5.2 | | 4.25 | 0 0 | | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 4.8 | | 9.5 | 0 | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | 广东红枣一级价格(日,元/公斤) 0 | 9 | | | | | | 上游市场 | 318.7 红枣:种植面积(年,万公顷) | 606.9 | | 199.3 | -4.1 | 红枣:产量(年,万吨) | | 产业情况 | 全国红枣库存情况(周,吨) -45 红枣当 ...

Group 1 - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7595.0 yuan, with a rise of 2.70% [1] - The market is seeing a reduction in positions while prices are increasing, indicating a potential shift in trading dynamics [2] - Supply from major producers in Xinjiang is driving the weekly increase in industrial silicon, while downstream production of polysilicon and organic silicon is also rising [2] Group 2 - Some institutions predict that silicon prices may maintain a strong trend due to increased demand and production recovery [2] - However, other analyses suggest that the market may face downward pressure due to stable supply and declining demand from the organic silicon sector [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is mixed, with some expecting a potential decline in prices while others see short-term strength [2][3]