Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is currently stable and favorable, but there is a risk of a short - term correction due to the exhaustion of upward momentum, and it is recommended to wait for the price to pull back before entering the market [1] - For sugar, although there is a lack of short - term drivers, it is still a good choice to gradually buy at low prices in the future considering the undervalued far - month contracts [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - As of December 25, 2025, the weekly inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 0.84% to 39.52 million tons. Among them, the inventory at ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong decreased by 19.94% year - on - year to 33.2 million tons, and that in Jiangsu was about 3.40 million tons, with other ports having about 2.92 million tons. This week, mainly Brazilian and Australian cotton arrived at ports, with more inflows than outflows [1] - The adjustment of the planting area structure in the far - month has led to a certain rebound in the futures market. The export demand for the near - month has improved, and the stage of maximum supply pressure has passed. However, the widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices and the continuous rebound of domestic prices may lead to the exhaustion of short - term upward momentum [1] Sugar - As of December 24, 2025, for the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Thailand, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 11.5321 billion tons, a decrease of 1.9633 billion tons (14.54%) compared with the same period last year. The sugar content of sugar - cane was 11.40%, a decrease of 0.08% compared with last year. The sugar - making rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676%. The sugar output was 1.0005 billion tons, a decrease of 0.1667 billion tons (14.28%) compared with the same period last year [2] - With the foreign market closed and no reference for the domestic market, there is an obvious differentiation between the near - month and far - month contracts in the domestic market. The near - month contract has fallen sharply, while the far - month contract is in the process of a volatile rebound, and the 01 - 05 spread has significantly narrowed [2]

中辉有色观点 基本逻辑：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及资金涌入共同催生了本轮的 银铂钯"疯涨"行情。但是短期黄金除外的其他品种面临高位波动风险 | | | | | 1 20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | | S Colle | 11 11 11 | | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 政策真空，ETF 资金持续流入稳定增长的黄金，短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好 | | | 长线持有 | 尚可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 美元持续走弱，白银交割故事或将持续重演，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺 | | | 控制风险 | 口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比 | | ★★ | | 价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | | 铜 | | 外盘圣诞休市，国内走出独立行情，宏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15200，基差-550 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Different trading strategies are proposed for various commodity futures based on their market performance and fundamentals. For example, for gold, it's recommended to go long; for some metals and energy - related commodities, strategies include going long at low prices, short - term or long - term trading based on supply - demand changes, and some suggest waiting and seeing [1][2][3] - The market conditions of different commodity futures are affected by multiple factors such as exchange rates, production capacity, inventory levels, and seasonal demand changes [2][3][7] Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Christmas led to overseas market closures, while domestic night - trading saw gold and silver strengthen. The RMB appreciated, and the Japanese government planned a large - scale budget. With central bank gold purchases supporting prices, it's recommended to go long. Silver has high overseas market tension and domestic speculative sentiment, so it's advised to wait and see [1] - **Silver**: Overseas market is tight, domestic market is full of speculative sentiment, and recent fluctuations have increased. It's recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price reached a new high, and the supply of copper ore and refined copper remained tight. It's recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased slightly. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply and demand were relatively stable. Before large - scale production cuts, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Industrial Metals - **Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were balanced, social inventory started to decline, and the market was expected to fluctuate weakly between 8000 - 9000. It's recommended to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply increased, demand decreased, and there was expected to be short - term downward pressure on the price. It's recommended to wait and see before the price adjustment between upstream and downstream is completed [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract increased significantly. Supply was stable, demand decreased, and the market was expected to decline in January. It's recommended to try to go long at low prices after the price returns to the spot trading range [3] - **Tin**: The price fluctuated strongly. Supply was tight, and the market sentiment was optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract decreased. Demand was weak, supply decreased, and the futures were at a large discount. It's recommended to wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract [5] - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a discount. It's recommended to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium. It's recommended to wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overseas CBOT soybean market was closed. Supply was loose, demand was mixed, and the market was expected to be weak in the US and show a near - strong and far - weak pattern in China [6] - **Corn**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price increased slightly. Supply and demand were balanced, and the price was expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to wait and see [6][7] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was closed. Supply decreased seasonally, demand increased slightly, and the market was expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to production and policies [7] - **Cotton**: The US market was closed. International supply increased, and domestic prices rose. It's recommended to go long at low prices [7] - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price increased. Supply was sufficient, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price fluctuated. Supply was abundant, demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [7] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. Supply pressure increased but slowed down, demand decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and improve in the long term. It's recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [8][9] - **PVC**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, demand decreased seasonally, and inventory was high. It's recommended to use reverse arbitrage [9] - **PTA**: PX supply was abundant, PTA supply decreased in the short term and was expected to accumulate inventory in the medium term. It's recommended to maintain a long - term long position on PX and look for opportunities to go long on PTA processing fees [9] - **Glass**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and inventory was high. It's recommended to use reverse arbitrage [9] - **PP**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and improve in the long term. It's recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **MEG**: The spot price was stable. Supply was high, and the market was expected to accumulate inventory in the medium term. It's recommended to go short at high prices [10] - **Crude Oil**: The price fluctuated due to geopolitical events. Supply pressure was large, demand was in the off - season, and inventory was high. It's recommended to go short at high prices [10] - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and inventory was at a normal - high level. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on styrene or use reverse arbitrage on pure benzene in the medium - term [10] - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It's recommended to use reverse arbitrage [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The sentiment for platinum is dominated by bulls, while palladium is expected to rise in a volatile manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 686.95 with a 4.46% increase; the gold - exchange platinum was at 591.25, down 2.59%. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 529.05, down 8.54%; the RMB spot palladium was at 416.00, down 9.37% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum was 227,666 kg, an increase of 201,102 kg compared to the previous day, with an open interest of 48,732, an increase of 718. The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium was 100,293 kg, a decrease of 2,565 kg, and the open interest was 23,862, a decrease of 2,067 [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces, the day before) were 3,275,138, a decrease of 5; the palladium ETF holdings (ounces, the day before) were 1,141,711, an increase of 3,144 [1]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, the day before) was 645,467; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, the day before) was 195,834 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 95.70, a decrease of 45.04 compared to the previous day; the spread between the Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 3.40, an increase of 32.05 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.91, down 0.05%; the US dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.02, down 0.18% [1]. Macro and Industry News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the plan to produce 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually has been postponed for several years due to sanctions, but factory construction continues [3]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae announced that the total amount of newly issued Japanese government bonds in the next fiscal year will reach 29.6 trillion yen [5]. - Cambodia and Thailand continued border meetings to discuss a cease - fire [5]. - The spokesperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress commented on the negative China - related clauses in the US "2026 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act", hoping that the US would view China's development and Sino - US relations objectively and rationally [5]. - China's Ministry of Commerce firmly opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged a solemn representation [5]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the issue of relaxing restrictions on rare - earth magnet exports to the US, stating that it actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 1, and that of palladium is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：受圣诞节假期影响，CBOT 市场休市，国际市场指引暂时缺位。国内市场，贸易商多持观 望态度，密切关注油厂大规模停机计划，普遍延续滚动拿货策略以规避库存风险。当前美豆上涨部分 抵消了人民币升值对进口成本的压制，成本驱动因素趋于多元，豆粕期价在底部区间呈现反复震荡格 局。短期来看，汇率波动、外盘节奏及国内供需节奏交织影响，市场缺乏单边趋势动力。豆粕期价仍 将维持震荡格局。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both coking coal and coke in the 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall reference view is an "oscillation mindset". The core logic for coking coal is that the market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, and it is operating at a low level; for coke, there are both long and short factors, resulting in low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - Demand Situation**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,140 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. Towards the end of the year, there are more coal mine shutdowns in the main production areas, but they will gradually resume in January. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal remains high, so there is insufficient positive news for coking coal supply. After the third round of coke price cuts, coking plants' production enthusiasm is limited, and the fundamentals of coking coal have not significantly improved. The futures are in low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage and replenishment rhythm [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Supply - Demand Situation**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. Currently, coke is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. However, downstream winter storage and replenishment and the expectation of anti - involution have driven coke futures to stop falling and oscillate. There is an expectation of steel mills' resumption of production in January, and attention should be paid to the subsequent downstream replenishment and production rhythm [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇国际评论，主要来分析道明证券白银期货翻车案例，劝诫个人投资者远离期 货，选择白银现货长期持有更稳妥。 这玩意儿跟《霍元甲》里霍师傅落水一样，别跟着水流瞎飘，沉下心抱着"石头"（也就是现货）慢慢往 岸边走，才能活下来，那些炒纸白银的，稍微跌一点就慌得一批，听风就是雨赶紧抛售，最后错过长期 收益，纯纯是心态崩了。 先给各位散户兄弟提个醒：期货这玩意儿，别碰！别碰！别碰！重要的事儿说三遍，最近道明证券那波 操作，简直是给咱们上了堂活生生的"反面教材课"。 白银市场大博弈 这道明证券可不是小角色，在白银市场分析界堪称"预言家"，之前预判白银挤兑时间准得一批，结果10 月8号在48.37美元/盎司建了空仓，逻辑倒是没毛病——觉得挤兑会让银价涨，到50美元就会有大批白 银砸进来压价。可坏就坏在，预判对了方向，却把时间算错了六天！ 就这六天差池，直接把自己坑了。 10月16号扛不住压力提前平仓，亏了239万美元，要是再坚持到21号砸盘，本来能赚钱的，你看，连专 业机构、手握内部数据的大佬都栽了 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For platinum, the external market is closed, and there is a need to be vigilant about a potential correction [1]. - For palladium, the investment sentiment has shifted, and it is expected to decline significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data** - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 657.65 with a 6.08% increase; the gold exchange platinum closed at 606.99 with an 8.08% increase; the New York platinum main - continuous contract closed at 2272.90 with a - 2.03% change; the London spot platinum closed at 2253.00 with a - 1.40% change [2]. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 578.45 with an 8.62% increase; the RMB spot palladium closed at 459.00 with a 5.03% increase; the New York palladium main - continuous contract closed at 1821.00 with a - 7.28% change; the London spot palladium closed at 1723.50 with a - 7.24% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data** - For platinum, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 26,564 kg (a decrease of 128,849 from the previous day), and the position was 48,014 kg (an increase of 3,582); NYMEX platinum trading volume was 64,622 kg (a decrease of 42,733), and the position was 101,066 kg (an increase of 59,339) [2]. - For palladium, Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 102,858 kg (a decrease of 79,236), and the position was 25,929 kg (an increase of 3,124); NYMEX palladium trading volume was 47,990 kg (an increase of 7,241), and the position was 67,992 kg (an increase of 579) [2]. - **ETF Position and Inventory Data** - Platinum ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 3,275,143, an increase of 5,271; palladium ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 1,138,567, a decrease of 384 [2]. - NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 644,038, an increase of 19,305; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 195,834, an increase of 264 [2]. - **Spread Data** - For platinum, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 50.66 (a change of 7.68 from the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 35.45 (a change of - 33.05); the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 8.11 (a change of 0.49); the spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 97.89 (a change of 53.36) [2]. - For palladium, the spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 119.45 (a change of - 23.90); the spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 4.20 (a change of - 1.55); the cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.13 (a change of 0.55); the spread between the RMB spot palladium and London palladium was 70 (a change of 53) [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data** - The US dollar index was 97.95, a 0.05% increase; the US dollar against the on - shore RMB (CNY spot) was 7.03, a - 0.14% change; the US dollar against the off - shore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.02, a - 0.18% change; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.95, a - 0.08% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US officials hinted that they currently prefer sanctions to military action to achieve their goals in Venezuela [5]. - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Russia believes that the latest US peace plan proposal lacks key terms and hopes to make revisions [5]. - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in fiscal year 2026 to about 17 trillion yen, the lowest level in 17 years [5]. - The Cambodian Ministry of Defense said that Thai fighter jets dropped cluster bombs, and the Thai military said they targeted only military objectives [5]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The platinum trend intensity is - 1; the palladium trend intensity is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].