瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.25 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 「 周度要点小结」 3 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添 加 客 服 业 务 咨 询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨18.42%，玻璃期货上涨25.99%，本周纯碱期货出现了大幅拉升的表现， 主要原因来自于市场对于反内卷会议的炒作，，本周基本上属于情绪化交易为主，基本面表现依旧乏力， 在产量小幅下滑，库存高位的背景下，下周行情有望回落，玻璃方面本周和纯碱期货走势大致相同，在 反内卷会议指导下，玻璃整体利润开始回升，虽然玻璃库存处于高位，落后产能后续将逐步淘汰，产能 筑底，库存筑顶，整体来看有望率先实现基本面反转，但本周涨幅主要在反馈淘汰落后产能，甚至过多 反馈。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上行，市场供应依旧宽松，国内纯碱 利润回升，氨碱法和联碱法利润继续回升，后续纯碱迎来检修窗口，预计产量下滑，伴随着反内卷会议 指导，天然碱法将会逐步替代落后产能，需求端玻璃产 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 玉米类市场周报 拍卖影响预期下滑 期货盘面窄幅震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2311元/吨，较前一周+8元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至25年7月20日当周，美国玉米 优良率为74%,符合市场预期，前一周为74%,上年同期为67%。生长初期优良率保持良好，产出前 景较高，国际玉米价格持续承压。国内方面，贸易商经过一轮出粮后库存趋紧，贸易商挺价心态 仍偏重，本周进口粮拍卖成交率略有回升，但实际成交量有限，出库速度不如预期，未能形成大 规模的有效供给。不过，深加工利润承压企业开机率偏低，且饲企库存相对安全，价格续涨动力 相对不足，总体维持窄幅调整。盘面来看，上周低位 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/25 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 7/18 69.3 576 839 4780 6505 68.56 263.0 201 -217 80.7 79.7 30764 30 0.90 2025/0 7/21 69.2 573 842 4785 6525 65.57 269.0 193 -214 80.7 79.7 30752 5 0.60 2025/0 7/22 68.6 566 843 4775 6530 63.62 277.0 178 -207 80.7 79.7 30746 5 1.00 2025/0 7/23 68.5 567 842 4810 6595 65.20 275.0 227 -175 80.7 79.7 30746 5 0.75 2025/0 7/24 69.2 576 856 4815 6685 69.04 280.0 156 -99 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2025/7/25 | 指标 | | 7月24日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 15 | 40 | 2500 2000 | -----19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------ 22/23 -- 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 天津 | -85 | -30 | 1500 1000 | | | | | 日照 | -165 | 10 | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -165 | 10 | -900 | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | 东莞 | -145 | 50 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | | | ----- 2019/20 == == ===== 2022/23 | | | | 湛江 ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - Report title: "LPG: Supported by Strong External Market, Domestic Market Still Has Room for Repair" [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Investment consulting qualification number: Z0020238 [1] - Email: chenxinchao@gtht.com [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures - PG2509 yesterday's closing price was 4,023 with a daily increase of 1.41%, and night - session closing price was 4,037 with a night - session increase of 0.35%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 100,180 (a decrease of 1,582 from the previous day), and positions were 88,522 (a decrease of 3,742 from the previous day) [1] - PG2510 yesterday's closing price was 4,456 with a daily increase of 1.48%, and night - session closing price was 4,461 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 23,707 (an increase of 3,001 from the previous day), and positions were 54,714 (an increase of 160 from the previous day) [1] Spreads - Yesterday, the spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 09 contract was 507, compared with 583 the day before [1] - Yesterday, the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 09 contract was 527, compared with 633 the day before [1] Industrial Chain Important Price Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 73.1%, up from 71.8% last week [1] - This week, the MTBE operating rate was 69.0%, up from 67.6% last week [1] - This week, the alkylation operating rate was 47.5%, up from 45.9% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, strong, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6] Group 4: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On July 23, 2025, the August Saudi CP expectation for propane was 530 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 510 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8] - The September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 535 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 515 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple PDH device maintenance plans from various companies are listed, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start times and some with undetermined end times [7] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans are listed, including those from Shandong - based companies like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Haike Ruilin, etc., with details of normal production volume, loss volume, start time, end time, and maintenance duration [9]

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价高位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹周产量小幅回升，考虑到品种吨钢利润较好，后续仍有增量空 间，低供应格局难续。与此同时，螺纹需求同样改善，高频需求指标均回升，多因投机需求放量所 致，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，淡季需求特征尚存。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺 纹钢基本面并无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pressure of live pigs remains, showing a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. For eggs, the short - term price has a rising drive but the supply pressure is large, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease. Oils are expected to be in a relatively strong trend after a correction. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it may strengthen in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply - demand of corn is in a game, and the price may rise in the medium - to - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9] Summary by Variety Live Pigs - On July 24, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all declined. In the short term, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price adjusts slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will gradually increase. Under the expectation of capacity reduction, it shows weak reality and strong expectation. The 09 contract has pressure at 14700 - 15000, the 11 contract at 14400 - 14600, and the 01 contract has support. Consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and going long on 01 [1] Eggs - On July 24, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate, and demand is expected to turn seasonally strong, but supply factors limit the increase. In the medium term, the supply in August - October 2025 may increase. In the long term, the subsequent new production may decrease. The 09 contract waits for spot guidance, and consider shorting on rallies. The 12 and 01 contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [2] Oils Palm Oil - On July 23, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. The MPOB June report was neutral - bearish, but the market focused on the increased import demand. In July, the export decline and production increase were bearish, but the GAPKI May report and other factors were bullish. The short - term trend is relatively strong, and the 10 contract focuses on the 4300 - 4400 pressure level. In China, the supply in August is relatively loose [4][5] Soybean Oil - As of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans is good. The US soybean futures are in a short - term range - bound. The short - term inventory accumulation in China is expected to be strong, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The soybean oil is moderately strong [6] Rapeseed Oil - The growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there are potential weather threats. The international demand may be affected. In China, the supply is tightening, but the potential import of Australian rapeseed may improve the supply. It is relatively weak [7] Soybean Meal - On July 23, the US soybean futures declined. The short - term US soybean is range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal is strong in the short term but the upside of the spot is limited. In the medium - to - long term, there may be a supply gap. Short - term, consider going long on the M2509 contract on dips; medium - to - long term, pay attention to the M2511 and M2601 contracts [8] Corn - On July 23, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is range - bound. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand tightens, and the price may rise but the upside is limited. Short - term, be cautious about going long on the 09 contract; consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [8][9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to rationality after being stimulated by macro news, and each chemical product is affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends [2][3][4] - Different chemical products have different investment opportunities and trends, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and policy trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower. The market lacks fundamental support for upward movement, and the spot market supply - demand support is weak [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed lower. Polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene price has a small upward shift, but the price increase space is limited due to weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed the external market sentiment and oscillated lower. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures main contract faced technical pressure and oscillated lower. The macro - positive support weakened, and the spot trading was poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose and then fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the demand for upstream PX was dragged down. The processing margin of PTA has room to repair [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated lower. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply increased. The supply advantage will weaken [4] - Short fiber followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The demand is expected to pick up in the medium - term. Bottle chip inventory is stable after production reduction, but the profit repair drive is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures main contract oscillated and corrected. The port unexpectedly destocked, and the domestic main - producing area enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance [5] - Urea futures opened high and went low. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but the export is advancing, and the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fell from a high. The spot trading volume was mediocre, the demand was in the off - season, and the supply increased. The short - term price may follow the overall sentiment [6] - Caustic soda fell from a high. The spot performance was average, the high - price goods sales slowed down, and the impact of macro factors is large in the short - term [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell. The inventory decreased, the spot price rose, and the supply was high. The short - term is more affected by macro - sentiment [7] - Glass fell from a high. The industry continued to destock, the profit slightly recovered, and the short - term is expected to follow the macro - sentiment [7]

Report Core View - The transportation of lychees in ancient Chang'an and modern futures markets share similarities in aspects such as supply - demand game, time value, risk management, human nature, and information warfare, and true investment wisdom lies in building a sustainable trading system [2][3][5] Similarities between Lychee Transportation and Futures Market Supply - Demand Game - Just as the supply and demand of lychees in Chang'an led to price fluctuations, the supply and demand of commodities in the futures market also determine price changes. Smart investors and ancient merchants both use methods to avoid risks [3] Time Value - The time - related decay of lychee value during transportation is similar to the "time decay" principle of futures contracts. Both ancient and modern people take measures to combat the loss of value [3] Risk Management - In both the lychee business and the futures market, extreme situations can cause price fluctuations. Investors need to use methods like diversifying positions and setting stop - loss points to manage risks [3] Human Nature - Greed and fear in the futures market are similar to the power games in Chang'an. Overcoming human weaknesses is crucial for successful investment [4] Information Warfare - Information about lychees and court dynamics in ancient times is similar to market information in modern futures trading. Investors need to build their own analysis frameworks to avoid being misled by information [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,387 | 7,300 | 87 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,505 | 7,492 | 13 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,481 | 7,423 | 58 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -118 | -192 | 74 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 24 | 69 | -45 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯：强情绪之下的空配 期 ...