Group 1: Macro and Stock Index - The Lujiazui Forum released eight major financial policies, including the establishment of a bank - to - bank market transaction reporting library and a digital RMB international operation center. Policies such as optimizing the functions of free trade accounts and developing free - trade offshore bonds are beneficial to cross - border capital flows and foreign - trade enterprise financing, injecting liquidity expectations into the market [2]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 index fell 0.15%, the CSI 300 rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 fell 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.53%. The 1 - year implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option was 21.2%, higher than that of the CSI 300 (15.6%), indicating a higher expected volatility for small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - The futures discount rates of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, reflecting short - term selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the resonance between technical repair and policy benefits [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The conflict between Iran and Israel is a key factor affecting oil prices. Market sentiment is cautious, and oil price volatility has increased significantly. The summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, supporting price increases [3]. - If the Middle East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel, continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Multiple institutions predict that if the conflict expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the conflict eases, the risk premium of crude oil will quickly decline [3]. - The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3]. Group 3: Gold - Israel's expanded military strikes on Iran and the threat of enhanced sanctions by the Trump administration have increased the risk of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a continuous increase in the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. Trump's claim to impose new tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry has also intensified concerns about global trade frictions [4]. - The world's largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) has seen inflows for three consecutive days. Gold prices have been consolidating for two consecutive days, trading below $3400 per ounce in the Asian session. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and policy guidance [4][5]. - In the short term, gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, central - bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest - rate cuts, but volatility will increase. If the Fed sends a dovish signal or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, gold prices may break through $3400. If the geopolitical situation eases or the Fed delays interest - rate cuts, gold prices may回调 to $3350 [5]. Group 4: Silver - On June 18, 2025, during the Asian session, the spot silver price reached a high of $37.313 per ounce, the highest since 2012, and maintained a high - level volatile pattern [6]. - The continuous escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the strengthening of the US military deployment in the Middle East, and Trump's threat to impose new tariffs have increased geopolitical risks, driving up the price of silver. The short - term profit - taking of funds has not changed the net increase in holdings throughout the year [6]. - Silver has broken through the resistance around $37 under the resonance of its financial and industrial attributes. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the Fed's FOMC interest - rate decision on silver prices [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China was 5205 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the basis was 309 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices supported PTA prices, but the upside was limited [7]. - In June, PTA plant maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The inventory days were 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period. Polyester factory and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom loads decreased, and the textile market was in a off - season [7]. - In the short term, PTA prices may fluctuate following the cost side [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China was 4547 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 77 yuan/ton, and the basis was 76 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants stopped production, but the overall operating rate increased [8]. - The inventory in East China's main ports decreased, and the demand from polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms declined, with a decrease in terminal order days [8]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol prices may show a narrow - range bullish fluctuation [8]. PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton. The supply side decreased slightly, and the demand from domestic downstream enterprises did not improve significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9]. - As of June 12, PVC social inventory decreased, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly, and the futures price was oscillating at a low level [9]. - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [9]. PP - The mainstream prices of PP拉丝 in North, East, and South China increased slightly. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased, and domestic production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - The average operating rate of downstream industries decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals were weak [10]. - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [10][11]. Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North, East, and South China increased. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises increased, while the operating rate of downstream products decreased [12]. - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased. The futures price rebounded due to the increase in crude - oil prices, but the fundamentals were weak [12]. - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [12]. Soda Ash - The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The overall operating rate of soda ash increased, and production increased significantly [14]. - The manufacturer's inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The demand was average, and the market lacked new driving forces [14]. - The futures market of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The market prices of 5mm large - size glass in different regions remained unchanged. The operating rate of float glass increased slightly, and the weekly output decreased slightly [15]. - The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand remained weak [15]. - The glass futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber and raw - material prices in He'ai were provided. Rubber prices rebounded due to market sentiment, but the increase was restricted by the repeated trade - war situation and the oversupply situation [17]. - The domestic and Southeast - Asian rubber - producing areas have entered the harvest season, with a loose supply situation. The operating rates of downstream tire enterprises increased [17]. - Attention should be paid to the operating conditions of the downstream rubber industry, and rubber prices are expected to rebound due to market resonance [17]. Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol increased. The futures price of the main contract increased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic operating rate of the methanol industry decreased slightly, and Iranian methanol plants stopped production due to geopolitical conflicts [18][19]. - The operating rates of MTO and MTBE devices increased, while the demand from traditional downstream industries remained weak [19]. - In the short term, the futures price of methanol may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation. Attention should be paid to changes in port inventory and the recovery of Iranian plants [19]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China and North China were provided. The USDA's June supply - and - demand report was slightly bullish, but the support was limited [20]. - The domestic corn market is in a transitional period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Downstream demand is weak, but the substitution effect of wheat has decreased, which is beneficial to corn prices [20]. - The main corn futures contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the upper resistance level [20]. Peanut - The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were provided. The increase in the bio - fuel standard in the United States has supported the peanut - futures market, but there is no continuous upward momentum for peanut prices [21]. - It is estimated that the domestic peanut - planting area will increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with a situation of weak supply and demand. Low inventory may drive up prices [21]. - In the short term, the main peanut - futures contract is unlikely to have a trending market and is expected to oscillate within a range [21]. Cotton - The spot price index of Chinese cotton and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton were provided. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the USDA's supply - and - demand report have had a bullish impact on cotton prices [22]. - The expected increase in cotton production in the new year may lead to a loose supply situation. Currently, cotton imports are low, and commercial inventory is lower than in previous years. The textile market is in an off - season, with insufficient new orders and increasing inventory pressure [22][23]. - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the previous gap can be filled [23]. Pig - The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas increased. The supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, while the demand for pork is low. The short - term price increase is due to the adjustment of the supply side by farmers, and the increase is limited [24]. - Attention should be paid to whether the 2509 pig - futures contract can break through the upper resistance level of 14000, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation of pigs [24]. Egg - The egg prices in the main production areas increased. The supply pressure has been relieved due to the continuous elimination of old hens, but the demand is still weak due to the difficulty of egg storage in hot and humid weather [25]. - After a short - term rebound, egg prices are still under pressure. The continuous elimination of old hens will support the market to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [25]. Soybean No. 2 - The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans, and weather factors will have a greater impact on the market during the critical growth period of US soybeans [26]. - Soybean No. 2 is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal - The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions were provided. The repeated US tariff policy and global geopolitical turmoil have affected the market. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices [27]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills are at a high level, with a large supply of soybean meal. Downstream demand is strong, and the inventory accumulation of soybean meal is slow [27]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [27]. Soybean Oil - The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to a rebound in the external market, driving up domestic soybean - oil prices. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas during the critical growth period [29]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills have returned to a high level, with an expected increase in the supply of soybean meal. The catering industry is in an off - season, and the inventory - accumulation pressure of soybean oil has increased [29]. - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [29]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import - copper ore index decreased. The continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East and the complex situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts have affected market sentiment [30]. - Domestic support policies have boosted market confidence. The raw - material supply of copper is still disturbed, and domestic copper inventory is decreasing. The game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified [30]. - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and a defensive strategy is recommended for the time being [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai spot price of aluminum increased. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with sufficient supply [31]. - The traditional off - season effect is significant, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. However, the decline in inventory and the rebound of alumina prices have supported aluminum prices [31]. - Aggressive investors can try to go long with a light position, while conservative investors should wait and see [31]. Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased. The supply side has increased production capacity, with a serious oversupply situation. The demand from electrolytic - aluminum enterprises is mainly rigid, and there is no arbitrage space for imports and exports [32]. - The port inventory of bauxite has increased, and the cost center of alumina has moved down. The alumina 2509 contract is showing a weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The national and East - China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased. The tight supply of scrap aluminum has provided cost support, but the industry is facing the pressure of oversupply due to continuous capacity expansion [33]. - The new - energy vehicle industry is performing well, but it will enter the off - season in the second half of the year. The inventory of aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the current inventory - accumulation trend will continue [33]. - The cast - aluminum - alloy 2511 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventory has decreased significantly. The supply side is still operating at a high level, but demand is weak, except for the resilience of power - battery demand [34]. - The current fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Conservative investors are recommended to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [34]. Industrial Silicon - The market prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The supply side has continued to resume production, with an increase in output. The demand side maintains on - demand procurement, and the inventory is showing a slight downward trend [35]. - The industrial - silicon 2509 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Polysilicon - The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of production in Sichuan and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand side is weak, with a significant decline in the demand from the photovoltaic industry [36][37]. - The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short when the price is high [37]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils remained unchanged. Technically, the downward trend may turn into a low - level oscillation, and the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cost support has weakened, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak, with poor inventory reduction [38]. - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [38]. Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased. The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The macro sentiment has improved, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. The demand is in the off - season, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [39]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach in the short term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coils increased. Technically, the downward trend is gradually turning to stabilization. Fundamentally, external talks have progressed smoothly, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, the cost center is dynamically operating, apparent demand has rebounded, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [40]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach [40]. Iron Ore - The spot prices of iron ore were provided. The supply side has maintained a high level of shipments, and the demand side has a high production enthusiasm of steel mills, with an increase in molten - iron output. The port

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：与美国的贸易摩擦加剧是一种无法通过货币或财政政策解决的负面结构性冲 击。 ...

Group 1 - Over 60% of economists believe that Trump's tariff policy will severely damage the US economy, with negative effects exceeding expectations [1] - The Trump administration plans to restart the trade war with China in 2025, raising tariffs to an unprecedented 145%, which is expected to undermine the competitiveness of Chinese supply chains [3] - The US Commerce Secretary acknowledged that the tariff policy has led to a "supply crisis" for domestic companies, impacting major firms like Boeing and Walmart, resulting in increased costs for consumers [3][4] Group 2 - High tariffs have triggered inflation and a crisis in living standards in the US, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) soaring to 3.2% and unemployment rising significantly [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that US GDP growth may drop to 0.5% in 2025 due to trade friction, with a 45% probability of economic recession according to Bloomberg [4] - A survey by the US Chamber of Commerce indicates that 83% of businesses believe tariffs harm their competitiveness, yet Trump insists that retailers absorb the costs, highlighting a disconnect between policy and business needs [4] Group 3 - The international community's trust in the US is eroding, with credit ratings downgraded and global investors losing over $10 trillion due to policy uncertainty [6] - Countries like the EU and Japan are moving closer to China, openly opposing US economic decoupling efforts, while China is responding with systematic countermeasures [6] - The US is facing a strategic quagmire, with Trump's approval rating plummeting to a historic low, prompting the White House to seek negotiations to mitigate economic fallout [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

日韩股市低开高走 6月18日早间，日韩股市 双双 低开， 随后震荡拉升。截至发稿， 日经225指数涨0.2%，至 2月21日以来的最高点。 此外， 日本央行在最新发布的货币政策声明中称，将维持政策利率在0.5%不变，并计划在下 一财年放缓购债的缩减步伐。 贝莱德中东及亚太地区首席投资策略师本·鲍威尔表示，由于面临全球经济不确定性，日本央 行今年年底前很可能会维持利率不变。本次按兵不动发生在食品价格上涨推动通胀上升的背 景下，与此同时，全球贸易摩擦和油价波动也为经济环境增添了复杂性。从日本国内来看， 薪资上涨与物价坚挺之间正在形成一个良性循环，势头逐渐增强，但外部环境的不确定性仍 使日本央行保持观望态度。 个股方面，王子控股、大成建设、任天堂等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王子控股 | 722.2 | 4.12% | 7326亿 | | 3861.T | | | | | 大成建设 | 8280.0 | 3.37% | 15166亿 | | 1801.T | | | | | 任天堂 | 12850.0 | 3.30% | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 社融总量稳定增长，政府债延续支撑 ——2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比基本持平，从增量结构上来看，政府债和企业直接 融资为主要贡献项；信贷增量偏弱，但结构上仍有亮点，企业短贷同比正增、票据冲量规模下 降。2025 年 5 月 M1、M2 同比增速分别为 2.3%、7.9%，增速环比提升 0.8 个百分点、微降 0.1 个百分点。存款结构方面，政府债净融资带来财政存款沉淀，企业存款在去年手工补息带 来的低基数下同比少减。信贷增量表现偏弱，但今年政府债为社融增速提供趋势性支撑，随着 市场对贸易摩擦的反应逐步钝化，资金面预计仍是政策真空期影响债市的重要因素。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 社融总量稳定增长，政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by Tangshan Jingheng Bone China Factory, particularly due to trade friction and rising tariffs, leading to significant inventory issues and financial strain on the company [2][6][12]. Group 1: Company Situation - The factory is currently facing a critical financial situation, with inventory valued at several million yuan stuck in warehouses due to halted exports [5][6]. - The owner, Liu Fangxin, has expressed that the factory's inventory could take approximately 10 years to sell at the current rate of de-stocking [3][6]. - The company has historically focused on high-end bone china products and has acted as an OEM for several international brands, but the current market conditions have severely impacted order fulfillment [6][12]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The factory's difficulties are primarily attributed to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, which have made exports unprofitable and increased shipping costs [6][12]. - Liu Fangxin noted that the FOB (Free on Board) shipping model is too risky under current conditions, as there is a high chance of customers refusing to accept shipments, leading to financial losses [7][12]. - The demand for lower-priced products from "Belt and Road" buyers has further complicated the company's ability to maintain its market position [6][12]. Group 3: Future Plans - Liu Fangxin aims to establish a strong brand identity and explore online sales channels once the financial situation improves [12]. - The company is committed to maintaining high-quality standards, using bone charcoal instead of bone powder to ensure product quality, despite rising raw material costs [11][12]. - Liu Fangxin's long-term vision includes opening up the domestic market and ensuring that customers recognize the quality of their products amidst a market filled with counterfeit goods [12].

供应端有所缩减，盘面下跌节奏放缓 煤焦周度报告 20250616 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面略有反弹，短期下跌节奏放缓；现货暂稳，仍有第四轮降价预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工下滑，供应端略有收紧 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪偏弱，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周中美和谈带来市场情绪短暂改善，周初双焦小幅反弹，但和谈未有超预期协议达成，加之美方对钢制家电加征关税，而钢材需求也进一步走弱，盘 面反弹乏力再度走弱，整体震荡走势。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌0.44%至1349.5，焦煤09合约跌0.58%至774.5。焦炭方面，受环保、检 ...

Economic Overview - In May, industrial output and service sector growth rates were around 6%, indicating a GDP growth rate of over 5% for Q2 is likely[1] - Consumer retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, driven by policies like "trade-in" and the early start of the "618" shopping festival[5] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival's early launch and "trade-in" policies significantly boosted retail sales, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93%[5] - However, the sustainability of consumer growth is uncertain as reliance on policy support may weaken, and there are signs of demand recovery issues[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% in May, with significant declines in non-metallic and chemical manufacturing sectors[6] - Export delivery value growth for large enterprises dropped sharply from 7.7% in March to 0.6% in May, indicating a more significant impact from tariffs compared to small enterprises[2] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area all saw year-on-year declines in May, with first-tier city housing prices also falling[7] - New policies are being implemented to stabilize the market, including the removal of restrictions in key cities[7] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth rates slightly declined, with broad infrastructure growth at 9.2% and narrow infrastructure growth at 5.1% in May[6] - Despite the slowdown, project approvals by the National Development and Reform Commission remain at historically high levels, suggesting ongoing infrastructure investment intentions[4]

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]