Group 1: Index Performance Summary - The South China Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2421.42, down 1.19 points or -0.05% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return of -7.19% and an annualized volatility of 13.87% [4] - Among the sector indices, the South China Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) had the largest increase, rising 0.38%, while the South China Industrial Products Index (NHII) had the smallest increase, rising 0.09%. The South China Black Index (NHFI) had the largest decline, falling -0.6%, and the South China Metal Index (NHMI) had the smallest decline, falling -0.29% [1][4] - Among the theme indices, the Energy Index (NHEI) had the largest increase, rising 1.12%, and the Coal - Chemical Index (NHCCI) had the smallest increase, rising 0.17%. The Building Materials Index (NHBMI) had the largest decline, falling -0.94%, and the Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) had the smallest decline, falling -0.53% [1][5] - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Crude Oil index had the largest increase, rising 1.66%, and the Glass index had the largest decline, falling -3.77% [5] Group 2: Index Contribution Analysis - For the South China Composite Index, positive contributors included Gold (6.60%) and Crude Oil (30.09%), while negative contributors included Iron Ore (-7.19%) and Glass (-10.62%) [10] - For the South China Energy and Chemical Index, positive contributors included Aluminum (1.32%) and Polypropylene (1.15%), while negative contributors included Iron Ore (-11.18%) and Coke (-17.56%) [10] - For the South China Agricultural Products Index, positive contributors included Rapeseed Meal (2.81%) and Live Pigs (4.97%), while negative contributors included Palm Oil (-1.74%) and Natural Rubber (-19.61%) [10] Group 3: Other Information - The calculation method of the rise - fall ratio in the report is (today's closing price - yesterday's closing price) divided by yesterday's closing price, and the contribution rate is the product of the rise - fall ratio and the weight [19] - The South China Commodity Index excludes the price difference when the commodity contract changes months, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [19] - The contribution rate calculation method used in the report is: a variety's daily rise - fall ratio divided by the sum of the absolute values of each variety's daily rise - fall ratio [19]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：周四 CBOT 大豆期货下跌，受到市场获利了结的拖累。随着现货市场价格跌幅扩大，豆粕期价 跌幅扩大。近期大豆到港量的逐渐增加，市场对 5 月份供应改善的预期渐强，此前现货价格坚挺的地区跌 幅明显扩大，基差延续回落。市场情绪自峰值逐渐回落，交易逻辑开始向产业逻辑切换，短期考虑到五一 假期前油厂开工率难有大幅提升，阶段性市场供应压力释放较为有限。短期豆类期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Nanhua Composite Index fell by -1.74% on April 8, 2025. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the largest increase of 0.99%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.43%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -2.91%, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the smallest decline of -0.29%. Among the theme indices, only the Oilseeds and Oils Index rose by 1.44%, while the rest declined, with the Energy Index having the largest decline of -4.42% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.59%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Egg Index had the largest increase of 3.54%, and the 20 - gauge Rubber Index had the largest decline of -6.79% [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Indices - The Nanhua Composite Index closed at 2390.37, down -1.74% from the previous day, with an annualized return of -6.78% and an annualized volatility of 13.63% [4]. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index closed at 1118.98, up 0.43%, with an annualized return of 30.88% and an annualized volatility of 19.21% [4]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index closed at 3480.83, down -2.30%, with an annualized return of -12.73% and an annualized volatility of 15.09% [4]. - Other indices also have corresponding closing prices, daily returns, annualized returns, and annualized volatilities as detailed in the report [4]. 3.2 Contribution of Single Varieties to Indices - For the Nanhua Composite Index, varieties like Soybean Meal, Silver, and Nickel had positive contributions, while Rapeseed Oil and Gold had negative contributions in some cases [8]. - Similar contributions are shown for the Nanhua Mini - Composite Index, Nanhua Industrial Products Index, and Nanhua Metal Index [8]. 3.3 Historical Trend Charts - There are historical trend charts of the Nanhua Composite Index, sector indices, and theme indices (all normalized), which can help analyze the long - term performance of these indices [10][12]. 3.4 Industry Chain and Single - Variety Index Fluctuations - In the energy and chemical sector, the price changes of various products in the industrial chain are presented, such as the decline of Soda Ash by -1.87% and the increase of Polypropylene by 0.25% [15]. - In the agricultural products sector, price changes of related products are also shown, for example, the increase of Palm Oil by 0.16% and the increase of Rapeseed Meal by 3.16% [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of both 2505 contract of coking coal and 2505 contract of coke is a decline, and the medium - term view for both is consolidation. The reference view for both is a consolidation approach. Coking coal will likely maintain a weak consolidation due to its long - term loose supply - demand pattern, and coke will oscillate at a low level as short - term improvement and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: consolidation; Reference view: consolidation approach [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The long - term loose supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains unchanged, with high supply and high imports continuing. Demand improvement in real estate and infrastructure takes time, and export demand faces trade policy risks. The recent trade tariff perturbation has limited direct impact on coking coal but may affect the overall atmosphere of the black commodity sector. The long - term fundamentals of coking coal are bearish, leading to the low - level operation of the futures main contract [5]. For Coke (J) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: consolidation; Reference view: consolidation approach [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Coking plants have initiated the first round of price hikes, pending implementation by steel mills. The cost - side and demand - side concerns for coke persist in the long run. The loose supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides insufficient cost support for coke. The newly implemented US tariff policy adds to the demand concerns for black commodities. The short - term improvement and long - term bearish expectations of coke fundamentals are intertwined, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the main contract [7].