1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive Observation [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short - term, expected to fluctuate upwards [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily Observation, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to fluctuate [1][9] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautious trading within a range [1][12] - **Aluminum**: Observation [1][13] - **Nickel**: Observation or shorting on rallies [1][15] - **Tin**: Trading within a range [1][17] - **Gold**: Building long positions on dips after full price corrections [1][19] - **Silver**: Trading within a range [1][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 5000 level pressure [1][21] - **Soda Ash**: Observation, expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focus on the 2550 level pressure [1][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 15300 level pressure [1][25] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][28] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 2200 - 2380 [1][29] - **Plastic**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 6950 - 7350 [1][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to rebound with fluctuations [1][35] - **Apple**: Expected to fluctuate [1][35] - **PTA**: Trading within the range of 4650 - 4900 [1][36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][39] - **Eggs**: Shorting on rallies [1][40] - **Corn**: Trading within the range of 2300 - 2360, long on dips at the lower end of the range [1][41] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trading within the range of 2860 - 3000, long on dips after mid - June [1][43] - **Oils and Fats**: Shorting on rallies with caution [1][43] 2. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products. It analyzes the impact of multiple factors such as macro - economy, policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade on different futures markets. For most products, the market shows a trend of fluctuation, and the investment strategies mainly include observation, trading within a range, and short - term or long - term trading based on price levels and market trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to factors like domestic market rotation, weak main - line driving force, and insufficient trading volume, the stock index may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a defensive observation stance [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the previous negative factors reached a peak, the bond market began to recover. Although investors are still cautious, it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With falling apparent demand, rising production, and slowing inventory depletion, and considering low valuation and weakening demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - sentiment and coal price decline, although there are factors such as potential production increase of Australian mines and decreasing inventory, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both coking coal and coke face supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal is affected by production restrictions, inventory accumulation, and weak demand; coke is affected by reduced demand from steel mills and price cuts. They are expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite weakening support from fundamentals, the copper price is still expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to factors such as mine - end interference, supply - demand situation, and inventory levels. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the change in the situation of Guinea's mining licenses, the price of alumina has risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand may weaken. It is recommended to observe [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Although the cost is firm, there is a long - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15][16]. - **Tin**: With factors such as changes in production and consumption, and the impact of tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Fed policies, and inflation data, the prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high inventory, weak demand, and the impact of tariffs, although the short - term tariff situation has improved, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - news [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand. The medium - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [25]. - **Rubber**: With slow raw material supply increase in the short - term and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Urea**: With high supply, weak agricultural and industrial demand, and increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [28]. - **Methanol**: With relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as macro - changes and device maintenance [29][30]. - **Plastic**: With reduced supply due to maintenance and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and other factors [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the spot price is firm, the futures price is under pressure due to insufficient expected maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the cotton price is expected to rebound with fluctuations [35]. - **Apple**: With stable market transactions and clear fruit - setting and bagging situations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [35][36]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of supply - demand fundamentals, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36][37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the game between supply and demand, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to the increase in supply, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies at resistance levels [39]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the supply is large, and the price is under pressure. In different periods, different investment strategies are recommended [40]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced grassroots grain sources. In the long - term, although the supply - demand is tightening, the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips [41]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to factors such as sufficient supply, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to cost increase and weather factors, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips after mid - June [43]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate due to the game of multiple factors. In the long - term, it is expected to decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies with caution [43][48].

贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

1、特朗普恢复与欧盟为期90天的贸易谈判窗口，此前冯德莱恩主动与之联系。此前特朗普称与欧盟的 讨论毫无进展，建议从6月1日起对欧盟直接征收50%的关税；欧盟委员会拒绝就美国贸易关税发表评 论，直到欧盟贸易专员与美国贸易代表通电话。 2、美国财长贝森特：50%的关税威胁是对欧盟行动速度的回应，希望这样做能激励欧盟采取行动。美 国在与印度及亚洲国家的贸易谈判方面已取得了显著进展。将在未来90天内宣布更多协议；特朗普政府 暂停了创建主权财富基金的计划。 北京时间周一（5月26日）亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.90附近，现货白银今日开盘于33.44美元/盎 司，目前交投于33.50美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于8250元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于8280元/千克附 近。日内无可关注的数据及事件，另外，由于美国阵亡将 纪念 ，贵金属市场将于美盘时段提前休市， 故此日内白银价格波动走势有限，或震荡走盘对待。 上周五(5月23日)美元指数跌0.81%，收报99.13，现货白银收涨33.48美元/盎司，上涨1.33%，在现货白 银上涨之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货黄金上涨1.89%，报3357.00美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent surge in gold prices due to heightened market risk aversion following U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, with gold prices increasing nearly 2% on Friday and a weekly gain of approximately 5% [1][2] - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to growing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade relations, which are expected to continue influencing market reactions [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at 3315 and resistance levels at 3370, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors [4][5] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including April durable goods orders and the PCE price index, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices, with a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2][5] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. Senate discussions on spending bills and trade negotiations with major partners, as any lack of progress could lead to further inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - The articles emphasize the importance of risk management and strategic trading approaches, advising investors to consider both short and long positions based on market conditions and technical indicators [5][6]

期货热点追踪 黄金3250美元支撑暗藏玄机！市场押注美联储9月出手，金银铜未来价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

近期，印尼盾汇率走强，截至5月20日，印尼盾对美元汇率较4月底升值1.13%。对此，印尼央行指出， 印尼盾汇率波动处于符合国内经济基本面的区间内，有助于维护经济稳定。 【导读】印尼央行宣布降息25个基点 5月21日，印尼央行如期降息25个基点。 降息25个基点至5.50% 5月21日，印尼央行发布消息，将基准利率（BI-Rate）下调25个基点至5.50%，存款便利利率下调25个 基点至4.75%，贷款便利利率下调25个基点至6.25%。 印尼央行表示，这一决定符合2025年和2026年通胀率预测——维持在低位并控制在2.5±1%的目标范围 内，旨在根据印尼盾基本面维持汇率稳定，推动经济增长。 印尼央行表示，印尼经济增长需持续加强，以缓解美国互惠关税政策带来的全球不确定性影响。2025年 第一季度经济同比增长4.87%，低于2024年四季度的5.02%。结合一季度GDP表现及全球经济动态，印 尼央行预测今年经济增长区间为4.6%至5.4%，略低于此前预测的4.7%至5.5%。因此，需通过加强国内 需求及优化出口增长机遇等措施，进一步强化政策应对，以推动经济增长。 印尼央行称，未来将继续引导货币政策，确保通胀率 ...

近期，金融市场的风云变幻吸引着全球目光，而美联储在其中扮演着关键角色。在一系列复杂事件的交织下，美联储的政策走 向愈发引人关注。 关税政策影响难测，经济数据走势不明 美联储官员表示，当前经济数据走势尚未能全面反映关税政策的影响。6 月及 7 月的数据，难以成为评估关税政策对美国经济数 据走势影响的可靠依据。这使得美联储在制定政策时，面临更多不确定性。在这种情况下，市场对美联储 6 月 18 日利率决议产 生诸多猜测。目前，市场预测央行将联邦基金利率范围维持在 4.25 - 4.50% 的概率约为 92.3%，而降息至 4.25 - 4.00% 的可能性 约为 7.7%。 市场走势受多因素牵动，美元指数前景堪忧 周二，美元指数走势回落至 100 关口下方。近期，美元以及美国国债走势均呈回落态势，这主要是受机构下调美国信贷评级的 影响，美元价值受到冲击，美国国债作为避险资产的吸引力也大打折扣。此外，特朗普亲自出席国会减税法案，使得市场高度 聚焦美国财政政策前景。一旦出现不明朗因素，不仅可能影响近期美元指数行情走势，令其维持走弱方向，还可能引发市场投 资者对美国政府治理能力的担忧，进一步加剧市场的不稳定。 评级下调 ...

Group 1: Core Reasons for Gold Price Decline - Strengthening US Dollar and Federal Reserve Policy: The rebound of the US dollar index has decreased the attractiveness of gold, as the market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts due to the Federal Reserve's high rate expectations [1] - Increased Rate Hike Expectations: If the US April CPI data exceeds expectations, it may lead to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - Easing Geopolitical Risks: Progress in US-China trade negotiations and a reduction in concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict have diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Factors - Technical Sell-off: Gold prices breaking below key support levels (e.g., $3300/oz) have triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs, creating a vicious cycle of "sell more as prices drop" [5] - Profit-Taking by Bulls: Investors have chosen to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, leading to increased short-term selling pressure [6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Data Impact - Positive US Economic Data: Strong non-farm payroll data and a rebound in manufacturing PMI have alleviated recession fears, making risk assets like stocks more attractive and prompting funds to exit the gold market [8] - Rising Real Interest Rates: Increasing US Treasury yields have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing investors towards higher-yielding bonds or other assets [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Slowing Central Bank Gold Purchases: While central banks have been increasing gold holdings in the long term, a short-term reduction in purchases (e.g., China pausing gold buying) may exacerbate market volatility [9] - Market Speculation: Some investors using leverage or loans for gold trading have been forced to liquidate positions due to price declines, further amplifying market volatility [10] Group 5: Other Contributing Factors - Normalization of Gold Premiums: The previous concerns over US tariffs on gold that led to inflated premiums are dissipating, reducing arbitrage opportunities and causing a decline in physical demand [11] - Consumer Demand Hesitance: With falling gold prices, consumer expectations of further declines have led to a temporary freeze in purchasing intentions, resulting in weak short-term demand [12]