Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may be confused about how to proceed with its policies, but the risk of making significant policy errors is relatively low [1] Group 1 - Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan, suggests that there is a crowded trade in the dollar [1] - Many large institutions have not identified a trend of "selling U.S. assets" as a trading strategy [1]

摩根大通全球固定收益负责人米歇尔：美联储在重要政策上出错的风险相当低。 ...

二、现货方面 撰写品种：沪银 撰写时间：2025/05/06 回顾周期：日度 沪银日度报告 一、盘面情况 沪银主力合约今日波动不大，开盘价为 8156 元/千克，最高价是 8280 元/千克，收盘价是 8235 元/千克。 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、甄别 和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的信息或 所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内容及 最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担 任何责任。 今日现货白银价格为 33.058 美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨 0.554 美 元，涨幅 1.70%。 三、宏观分析 美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，陷入负增长；4 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI48.7，略高于预期但较前值小幅回落，仍处于收缩区间。四 月美国非农就业人数微降至 17.7 万人，好于此前预期，四月美国失业率持 平于 4.2%。关注中美经济数据及关税谈判进展。 四 ...

Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar experienced a general decline due to market concerns over the uncertainty surrounding trade agreements promoted by President Trump [1][3][9] - The dollar fell 0.86% against the yen, closing at 142.445 yen [1] - The widening U.S. trade deficit, reported to have increased by 14% to a record $140.5 billion, further exacerbated market worries [6][9] Group 2: Euro Strength - The euro strengthened following the election of conservative leader Merz as Chancellor in Germany, with a closing increase of 0.50% to $1.1371 [4][9] - Merz's election is viewed as a positive signal for political stability in Germany, boosting market confidence in the euro [4] Group 3: Canadian Dollar Performance - The Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.39% against the U.S. dollar, closing at 1.38 CAD, following Prime Minister Carney's firm stance on trade negotiations [5][9] - Carney's comments reflect Canada's strong position on trade issues, enhancing market confidence in the Canadian dollar [5] Group 4: Market Expectations - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [8] - There is speculation that the Bank of England may lower rates by 25 basis points, contributing to a 0.61% increase in the British pound to $1.33780 [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 14% increase in the trade deficit for March, reaching a record $140.5 billion, attributed to businesses increasing imports ahead of tariffs imposed by Trump [3] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is scheduled to visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, indicating ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S. [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized that any dialogue must be based on mutual respect and benefit, warning against U.S. coercion [3] Group 2: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices are currently rising, with the latest price at 802.84 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.79% increase, and a trading range between 795.60 and 809.36 yuan per gram [5] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 820-825 yuan, while support levels are noted between 760-765 yuan [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, as well as tensions between India and Pakistan, are contributing to increased safe-haven buying in gold [4]

【要闻速递】 今日周三（5月7日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金在前一日大涨后大跌，截至发稿暂报3392.30美元/盎司， 跌幅1.44%，今日开盘于3448.10美元/盎司，最高上探3448.20美元/盎司，最低触及3367.00美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【COMEX黄金行情解析】 市场关注美联储周三公布的政策决定，预计联储将在会上维持利率不变，但这次会议可能是最后一次结 果如此明朗的会议。 短线来看，COMEX黄金价格下跌，目前交投于3392.30美元/盎司，跌幅1.44%，最高上探3448.20美元/ 盎司，最低触及3367.00美元/盎司。今日上方阻力位为3455-3460，下方支撑位为3215-3220. 面对特朗普总统的关税问题尚未解决，以及美国经济同时显示出明显的优势和弱点，央行政策制定者目 前除了坐等事态发展之外无能为力。 曾长期担任美联储官员、现为纽约银行投资的首席经济学家的Vincent Reinhart表示："这次会议将会很 尴尬，美联储没有对未来几次会议做出任何预测。美联储必须等待两件事：一是看到政策真正到位…… 但当它显示出来时，必须看到通胀预期的反应。这就是美联储要 ...

黄金方面，周二黄金价格总体呈现上涨的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3434.61位置，最低下跌至3323.14位置，收盘于3430.31位置。针对周二黄金在早盘价格 依托日线支撑进一步上涨，随后早盘首次测试高点回撤618位置后调整，但是后续再度发力上涨突破，最终当天收盘在高位，日线大阳收尾，后续则需要关 注日线及四小时支撑区间看上涨。只有后续下破后才会进一步看承压。 宏观面 当前全球经济与政治局势错综复杂，对市场与国际关系影响深远。经济上，美国面临多重压力。2 年期国债收益率下行，受贸易逆差和企业悲观展望影响， 市场担忧贸易战冲击。交易员预计美联储今年三次降息，首次或在 9 月，但投资者仍忧心政策不宽松，市场前景不明。国际经贸合作有新进展，印英达成贸 易协议，英美也将签协定，英部分商品可免特朗普加征关税。能源市场，欧佩克 + 超预期增产致油价下跌，沙特警告过剩成员国，哈萨克斯坦考虑履约。 政治领域，乌克兰批准与美矿产协议草案，阿曼与美、也门达成护航行自由协议，英国政府坚持削减福利政策。后市方面，市场关注美联储政策决定，预计 本次利率不变但未来存变数。同时，以色列与胡塞武装、印巴间的冲突摩擦，让地缘局势紧张，投资者需 ...

【行情回顾】 周二（5月6日）因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，现货黄金周二再度大涨 近100美元，最终收涨2.85%，报3431.11美元/盎司；周三亚盘初，黄金日内跌近1%，早盘跌近30美元， 下触3400美元/盎司。现货白银周二收涨2.33%，报33.22美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 摘要周二（5月6日）因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，现货黄金周二再度 大涨近100美元，最终收涨2.85%，报3431.11美元/盎司；周三亚盘初，黄金日内跌近1%，早盘跌近30美 元，下触3400美元/盎司。现货白银周二收涨2.33%，报33.22美元/盎司。 由于关税将进一步推高物价压力，通胀仍处于高位。劳动力市场依然稳固，与经济放缓的预期背道而 驰。这使得美联储"除了推迟市场宽松预期，强调潜在经济状况的弹性之外，几乎没有其他行动的余 地"。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3382美元或3366美元附近支撑；上方关注3450美元或3500美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注32.95美元或32.75美元支撑；上方关注33.40美元或33.65美元阻力。 上个月，美国供应链压力 ...

今天分享的是：开源证券-宏观经济2025年中期投资策略：关税冲击与应对 报告共计：39页 该文档是开源证券2025年5月发布的宏观经济中期投资策略报告，核心聚焦关税冲击及其应对策略，主要内容如下： 1. 对等关税的影响 - 对中国的影响评估：加征关税对中国经济有冲击，加征54%关税预计拖累中国GDP 1.2个百分点左右；54%-145%的情形下，冲击在1 - 2个百分点区间。4月 制造业PMI分项走弱，5 - 6月、7 - 8月是关税扰动的关键阶段。 2. 经济数据的隐忧 - 加征关税目的：通过加征关税减少贸易逆差，推动制造业回流，以改变美国长期贸易逆差和制造业占GDP比重低的局面。 - 关税谈判展望：虽然关税谈判前景不明，但美国经济下行、通胀预期升温以及债券市场压力，可能促使其选择谈判。 - 美联储政策倾向：4月美国新增非农就业超预期，劳动力市场有韧性，美联储或在5月会议观望，三季度可能首次降息。 - 出口形势严峻：4月出口同比或大幅回落，全年出口同比可能降至-8%左右。 - 地产市场遇冷：4月30城商品房成交同比下降，二手房成交增速放缓，房价修复可能暂缓，中国偿债比率虽有改善但仍需下行。 - 价格水平低迷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a bullish trend, nearing the psychological level of $3400 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market sentiment favoring safe-haven assets [1][4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a March core PCE price index of 2.6% year-on-year and resilient April non-farm employment figures, alleviates concerns over "re-inflation" risks, providing support for gold bulls [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong bullish pattern in the gold market, with a "stair-step" breakout characteristic and a high probability of continued upward movement [4] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around $3375, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3400-$3430 [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3388 and $3398, with a breakout target of $3410, while support levels are noted at $3374 and a stronger support zone between $3370-$3366 [4] - The market is expected to remain in a strong bullish trend, with a low probability of reversal in the near term [4]