Core Insights - Shenzhen's new housing policy, implemented on September 5, significantly relaxes purchase restrictions, exceeding market expectations and aiming to boost market confidence and transaction volumes [6][7]. Market Response - Following the announcement of the new policy, there was an immediate positive response from the market, with an increase in customer inquiries and visits to property sites, with some projects reporting visitor numbers up by over 10% [1][2]. - In certain areas, such as Longhua, the number of clients for new properties doubled compared to previous weeks, indicating a strong market reaction [2][3]. Policy Details - The new policy narrows the restricted purchase areas to only a few districts, allowing for greater flexibility in home buying for both local and non-local residents [6]. - Specific changes include the removal of purchase restrictions in certain districts, allowing local residents to buy unlimited properties and non-local residents to purchase two [6][7]. Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the new policy will enhance market sentiment, accelerate developers' sales pace, and stimulate demand, particularly in non-core areas [7][8]. - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is expected to see a significant increase in transaction volumes, potentially exceeding a 50% rise in September [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Zhengzhou is showing signs of recovery with an increase in actual registration area for commercial housing in August, indicating a more active trading environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the total actual registration area for commercial housing in Zhengzhou reached 820,600 square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.89% and a year-on-year increase of 2.71% [2]. - The actual registration area in the urban area was 618,200 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 15.66% and a year-on-year increase of 12.38% [2]. - The overall market is described as stable and improving, with some improvement in sales for projects that were previously in a slow sales period [2][8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market - The introduction of "good housing" standards has led to a variety of improved residential products in Zhengzhou, contributing to the positive sales performance [2]. - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, combined with an 8-day holiday for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, is expected to boost sales further [3][8]. - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which may lead to more supportive policies in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 3: Project Performance - Several projects in August achieved significant sales, with the Electric Power Construction High-tech New District project selling 136 out of 149 units on its first opening day, achieving a sales rate of over 91% [4][6]. - The Green City Jin Tang Tian Di project also performed well, selling 98 units at prices ranging from 15,300 to 16,800 yuan per square meter [6]. - Overall, the market saw a mix of strong initial sales for new projects and steady performance for existing ones, with expectations for increased sales during the upcoming holiday period [8].

Core Insights - Country Garden Group held a monthly management meeting on September 5, focusing on current policies and market conditions [1] - The chairman, Yang Huiyan, emphasized systematic analysis of sales markets, quality delivery, and asset management as core tasks [1] - The company aims to ensure task completion and is concentrating efforts on the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period [1] Sales Market - The company is urging regional projects to conduct thorough assessments and implement precise strategies to ensure sales task completion [1] - There is a strong focus on achieving sales targets during the critical sales months of September and October [1] Quality Delivery - The management is committed to ensuring quality delivery of properties, particularly aiming for successful handovers by the end of the year [1] - The emphasis on quality delivery is part of a broader strategy to regain market confidence and operational efficiency [1] Asset Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of effective asset management in navigating the current market environment [1] - The company is looking to optimize its asset portfolio to enhance operational performance and financial stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the rising expectation of interest rate cuts may drive the overall strength of non - ferrous metals including nickel. Although the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, in the medium and long term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will strongly support nickel prices. The new - year RKAB approval also potentially benefits nickel prices, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the traditional peak season expectation of stainless steel in "Golden September and Silver October" is hard to be falsified, which may support nickel - iron prices. If the macro - interest - rate - cut narrative strengthens, there may be a phased restocking cycle leading to a stronger nickel - price market. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips in the future. The price range of the main SHFE nickel contract in September is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices are stable. In the Philippines, mines are strongly inclined to hold prices, and ferrous - nickel prices are rising this week, so iron plants can accept the ore prices. In Indonesia, the Halmahera region is still affected by the rainy season, but the weather in Sulawesi Island has improved. Overall, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is sufficient, and downstream smelters do not face raw - material shortages. In the future, although the short - term ore supply is abundant, ore prices are expected to remain stable under the background of the firm - to - rising nickel - iron prices [11]. - **Nickel - iron**: In terms of supply, the profit losses of domestic iron plants have been repaired but are still in the red, and the supply increase is limited. In the spot market, suppliers' quotes are firm, and low - price resources are scarce. On the demand side, the stainless - steel futures prices have stabilized this week, inventories have slightly decreased, market activity has increased, and with the approaching traditional consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October", stainless - steel plants are expected to increase production in September, supporting the demand for nickel - iron. Overall, nickel - iron prices are expected to continue to be firm - to - rising in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The spot inventory on the supply side is in short supply. Some traders have stopped quoting due to exhausted available goods, while some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers on the demand side still have purchasing needs, supporting the prices. Generally, the market - circulating spot of intermediate products is tight. Meanwhile, as a key auxiliary material for MHP, the price of sulfur has been rising recently, increasing the MHP cost. Driven by cost and supply - demand factors, the prices of intermediate products are expected to continue to strengthen [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate. At the macro level, the September Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the market has high expectations for interest - rate cuts in September and later, making the non - ferrous metals sector perform strongly. In the spot market, the downstream purchasing power is average, inventories have not significantly increased, and the spot premium and discount are fluctuating [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price changes**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 250 yuan/ton to 123,010 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian nickel rose by 420 yuan/ton to 121,340 yuan/ton. The LME closing price decreased by 27 US dollars to 15,236 US dollars, and the SHFE closing price dropped by 140 yuan to 120,850 yuan. The spot price ratio increased by 0.09 to 8.06, and the import profit - loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.80%. The Russian - nickel premium remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel premium decreased by 3.8 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Position and inventory changes**: The LME position decreased by 0.68 million lots to 32.91 million lots, and the SHFE position increased by 0.31 million lots to 20.69 million lots. The LME inventory increased by 0.56 million tons to 21.53 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 2.64 million tons, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 0.51 million tons, the nickel - plate spot inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons to 3.51 million tons, and the nickel - bean spot inventory remained unchanged at 0.26 million tons [15]. - **Other price information**: In August, nickel - iron prices rebounded from the bottom. On September 4, the domestic high - nickel pig - iron ex - factory price was 938 - 953 yuan/nickel point, with the average price up 30 yuan/nickel point from the same period last month. In August, nickel - sulfate prices were firm - to - rising. On September 4, the domestic nickel - sulfate spot price was 27,770 - 27,970 yuan/ton, with the average price up 490 yuan/ton from the same period last month [24]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to increase. As of September 5, the nickel - ore port inventory was 13.0823 million tons, a 3.8% increase from the same period last week. Nickel - ore prices were stable. On September 4, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was 52.2 US dollars/wet ton, basically unchanged from the same period last month; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade ore was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.3 US dollars/wet ton from last month; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine - produced nickel ore was 57 US dollars/wet ton, the same as last week [31][34]. - **Nickel - iron**: In July, Indonesia's MHP production was 40,000 nickel tons, and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons, both basically unchanged from the previous month [41]. - **Intermediate products**: As of August 29, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,097 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.87, up 0.05 from last month; the high - grade nickel matte was 13,391 US dollars/metal ton, and the coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.9, up 0.05 from last month [46]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, the national refined - nickel production reached 36,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but it is related to stainless - steel production, manufacturing, and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific import - export data was provided, but the import - profit - loss situation was presented in the graph [57]. - **Inventory**: In August, the global refined - nickel inventory slightly increased. According to Mysteel data, on September 4, the domestic + LME visible inventory was 247,000 tons, a slight increase of 840 tons from the same period last month [60]. - **Cost**: No specific cost data was provided, but the production - cost and profit - rate graphs of different raw materials and processes were presented [62]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No specific supply - change data was provided, but the production and net - import graphs were presented [67]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but the demand is related to ternary power - battery loading and ternary precursor production [70]. - **Cost and price**: No specific cost - and - price data was provided, but the cost, price, and profit - rate graphs of different processes were presented [72]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Historical data**: In 2023, the total demand was 3.23 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3129 million nickel tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 82,900 nickel tons. In 2024, the total demand was 3.37 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3972 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 27,200 nickel tons [77]. - **Forecast data**: In 2025, it is expected that the total demand will be 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply will be 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly methanol data report released by New Era Futures Research on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] Group 4: Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 increased from 2361 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.29%. The basis decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.94%. The price of methanol in Taicang dropped from 2298.4 yuan/ton to 2255.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%. The methanol CFR price decreased from 260 dollars/ton to 258.33 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.64% [4] - Among downstream products, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong remained unchanged, the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu increased from 2229 yuan/ton to 2278.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.23%, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of MTBE in Shandong increased from 4980 yuan/ton to 5061.25 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.63% [4] Group 5: Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based methanol profit slightly decreased due to the continuous decline and subsequent rebound of coal prices and increased freight. The profits of natural - gas - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol recovered due to cost reduction [9] - As the methanol price decreased, the downstream profits significantly recovered, especially acetic acid, with a month - on - month increase of 23.69% [10] Group 6: Supply Side - As of September 4, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points. Methanol production was 1.9628 million tons, an increase of 43,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% [13] - This week, the total restored capacity of returning plants was about 3.4 million tons, and the total lost capacity of maintenance plants was about 700,000 tons. Next week, some plants are planned for maintenance and some for resumption, with the resumption volume slightly larger than the maintenance volume [13] Group 7: Demand Side - With the gradual recovery of MTO profit, the MTO operating rate remained stable but decreased slightly due to the maintenance of Ningxia Baofeng's olefin plant on Thursday. Traditional downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs and decreased slightly due to some plant maintenance [16] - Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, the actual demand fulfillment is slightly poor, and attention should be paid to whether future demand can meet expectations [16] Group 8: Inventory - As of September 3, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.88%. The inventory accumulation rate at ports narrowed compared to last week but still exceeded 1.4 million tons. The inland inventory was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%, remaining at a low - inventory level [19] Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] - Next week's key points of concern include the recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, coal price impact, and macro - market sentiment [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock Operation" rating for the cotton textile industry [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the September 3rd Victory Day parade in China, the stock market dropped. The August PMI manufacturing index rebounded but remained below 50%. Enterprise profits turned positive. Next week, the CF2601 contract is expected to oscillate or start a rebound test in the range of [13920 - 14255]. In the medium - term, new cotton will be on the market after September 20th. The expected purchase price of ginned cotton mills is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton. Pre - sales of new cotton have increased significantly. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", there is a possibility of price support or rebound, but high inventories of grey cloth and yarn limit the rebound height. In the long - term, after new cotton is on the market, prices may first rise and then fall, and next year the market is expected to be shock - strong due to the expected interest rate cuts [6] - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market also followed. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices are expected to strengthen [8] Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: After the parade, the stock market fell. The PMI index rebounded but was below 50%. Next week, expect oscillations or a rebound test in the [13920 - 14255] range for CF2601 [6] - Medium - term: New cotton will be on the market after September 20th. Pre - sales have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" may support prices, but high inventories limit the rebound [6] - Long - term: New cotton prices may first rise and then fall. Next year, the market may be shock - strong due to expected interest rate cuts [6] 02. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market followed. Low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in losses. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices may strengthen [8] 03. Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton is still weak. Macro - risk aversion is strong. Cotton merchants' inventories are low, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinning enterprises purchase raw materials on a need - basis. New cotton production is expected to increase slightly, bringing long - term pressure. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in cash - flow losses [12] 04. International Macro - US economic data shows that in September 2025, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, ADP employment decreased, exports increased, imports increased, and the trade deficit widened. Eurozone data shows that the unemployment rate decreased, CPI increased, and PPI increased [13] 05. Domestic Macro - Upcoming domestic economic data to be released includes foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans [15] 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's August report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume decreased month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, consumption increased, exports decreased, and the ending inventory decreased again [17] 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, the total supply decreased due to a decrease in imports. The total demand increased due to an increase in cotton consumption. The ending inventory decreased by 120,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased slightly, the total demand remained stable, and the ending inventory decreased by 100,000 tons [22] 08. US Cotton Exports - As of August 14, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 755,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a signing rate of 28.88% and a shipment rate of 8.49%. China had signed 3,000 tons and shipped 181 tons [25] 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 22.62% from the previous month and 21.18% from the same period last year. As of August 15, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 16.88% from the end of July. Industrial inventories also changed accordingly [28] 10. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. Cotton yarn imports in July were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [31] 11. Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the month. The profit of spinning enterprises improved, but the operating rate did not increase significantly. The estimated production of pure cotton yarn in August was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [35] 12. US Cotton Growth - As of August 31, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 90%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 28%, 7 points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the average. The excellent - good rate was 51%, 7 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the average [38] 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 2, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, but most cotton had completed boll - setting and entered the flocculation stage, so the impact on growth was limited [42] 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 1, the average flocculation rate in Xinjiang was 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points. Some cotton fields have started spraying defoliants, and new cotton is expected to be on the market 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [44] 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the inventory of the textile industry increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.49% year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of the textile industry decreased by 0.03% month - on - month and increased by 1.31% year - on - year. Textile and clothing inventories changed accordingly [45] 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [50] 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 170.741 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [53] 18. US Clothing Retail - In June 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and accessories were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [56] 19. US Cotton Product Imports - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47% and a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. Textile and clothing imports also changed [60] 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,829, a decrease of 167 from the previous week [62] 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of August 26, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 2,829 to - 40,128. The net long positions of non - commercial futures alone decreased by 2,501 to - 37,606. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 513 to 59,842 [66] 22. Textile Factory Load - As of September 5, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 64.5, unchanged from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn mills was 50, unchanged; the load of pure polyester yarn mills was 54.5, an increase of 0.1 from the previous week [70] 23. Weaving Factory Load - The load index of all - cotton grey cloth mills increased by 0.3 to 46.5, the load index of rayon cloth mills increased by 1.0 to 55.5, and the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth mills increased by 0.2 to 49.3 [74] 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased by 0.7 days to 29.7 days, cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.4 days to 28.1 days, and all - cotton grey cloth inventory decreased by 0.9 days to 33.5 days [78] 25. Industry Chain Profits - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated after a rebound. The cotton yarn market improved slightly, but the price increase was limited. Inland spinning enterprises for C32S were still in losses of about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang enterprises still had a small profit [83] 26. Basis - This week, the basis weakened significantly with the rebound of futures prices. The current inland basis is 1,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 505 yuan/ton from the previous week. The new cotton pre - sale basis is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [86] 27. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, the domestic cotton market is stronger than the foreign market. After October, if China increases foreign cotton imports or conducts state reserves sales, the situation may change [89] 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 9 - 11 spread weakened to - 300 yuan/ton, approaching the target. The 11 - 1 spread first weakened to - 230 yuan/ton and then strengthened to - 125 yuan/ton. A strategy of shorting 11 and going long 1 is recommended [92]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Macro and Crude Oil News - OPEC+ may decide to increase oil production in October, potentially starting to lift the second-layer production cut plan with a reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. The market expected a 2 - 3 - month pause in production increase. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 is awaited [4]. - Trump hinted at imposing second and third - stage oil sanctions on Russia, and the US hopes Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy [4]. - Fed officials including Williams, Waller, and Kashkari indicated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates in response to rising risks in the job market and the current economic situation [4]. - The US added 54,000 ADP jobs in August, lower than the expected 65,000. The initial jobless claims last week increased to 237,000. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 policy meeting [5]. - The US Labor Day marks the end of the summer travel season, leading to a seasonal decline in gasoline consumption. As of August 29, the US daily crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels, down 16,000 barrels from the previous week but up 123,000 barrels from the same period last year. The commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.42 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.68 million barrels [6]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Prices | Type | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/28 | Week Change | Week - on - Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous (USD/barrel) | 63.3 | 64.27 | - 1 | - 1.51% | | Naphtha (USD/ton) | 592.5 | 593.88 | - 1.38 | - 0.23% | | PX511 (CNY/ton) | 6680 | 6886 | - 206 | - 2.99% | | PX CFR: Taiwan Province (CNY/ton) | 6780.87 | 6951.22 | - 170.35 | - 2.45% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4656 | 4792 | - 136 | - 2.84% | | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4615 | 4775 | - 160 | - 3.35% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 4357 | 4465 | - 108 | - 2.42% | | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 4456 | 4525 | - 69 | - 1.52% | | PF511 (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6526 | - 196 | - 3.00% | | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6450 | 6555 | - 105 | - 1.60% | | PR511 (CNY/ton) | 5820 | 5982 | - 162 | - 2.71% | | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5790 | 5860 | - 70 | - 1.19% | [8] Group 4: PX Supply - Domestic PX supply was stable this week. As of September 4, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (unchanged), and the weekly output was 709,800 tons (unchanged). Asian PX supply was also stable, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 74.46% (unchanged) [11]. - Next week, Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PX plants will be under maintenance, while Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant is planned to restart, and the PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11]. Group 5: PTA Supply and Inventory - This week, the overall domestic PTA supply decreased due to the co - existence of maintenance and restart of two sets of Taihua's plants and the supply reduction caused by the maintenance of Dushan Energy last week. As of September 4, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.48% (- 1.38 percentage points), and the weekly output was 1.2893 million tons (- 23,600 tons). Next week, Hengli Huizhou has a restart plan, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly [14]. - This week, PTA social inventory continued to decline. As of September 4, the available days of PTA in - plant inventory were 3.9 days (+ 0.09 days), the PTA inventory of polyester plants was 7.05 days (- 0.50 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.3795 million tons (- 152,600 tons) [14]. Group 6: Ethylene Glycol Supply and Inventory - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased as multiple plants increased their loads. As of September 4, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 67.45% (+ 2.34 percentage points), including 66.84% for integrated plants (+ 1.64 percentage points) and 68.34% for coal - based ethylene glycol plants (+ 3.46 percentage points), and the weekly output was 410,000 tons (+ 14,200 tons). Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants are planned to be under maintenance, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly next week [18]. - This week, the port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased. As of September 4, the total inventory in East China ports was 376,300 tons, down 36,900 tons from last Thursday and 13,300 tons from this Monday. Although the arriving goods will increase next week, the inland supply will decrease, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [18]. Group 7: Polyester Sector - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.33%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - This week, the inventory of polyester filament and staple fiber increased [22]. Group 8: Terminal Market - As of September 4, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.42% (+ 0.44), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.89 days (+ 1.17 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 26.59 days (- 0.32 days) [28]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply is recovering, but the overall pressure is not high. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has started, but the actual improvement in demand is limited. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the polyester sector will passively follow the cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting results and the impact of anti - involution sentiment [30]. - Medium - and long - term: The demand is expected to improve, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move up [31]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings include geopolitical situation changes, the OPEC+ meeting, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream plants [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The Fed's expected rate cut and a falling US dollar index support the non - ferrous metals market. Domestic copper supply is expected to tighten, while demand is expected to improve during the peak season. Attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but production cut disturbances continue. The market rumors of production cuts and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations drive up the price [10]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and possible sanctions on Russian oil [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. Given that the futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range and the OPEC+ meeting this weekend may have a significant impact, it is recommended to close short positions for now [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. Downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, which may bring some support [15][17]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the开工 rate has decreased recently. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, which may boost demand [18]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory pressure is high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand of coking coal are both in the process of recovery. Anti - involution measures are ongoing, and capital sentiment is volatile. Caution is advised when taking long or short positions [21]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to trade weakly in the short term, with possible technical rebounds later. Domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export support is limited [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - As of the close on September 5, most domestic futures contracts rose. Polysilicon rose 8.99% and hit the daily limit, coking coal rose over 6%, glass and coke rose over 4%. In terms of declines, eggs, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell [6]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2511 had an inflow of 1.901 billion, rubber 2601 had an inflow of 901 million, and palm oil 2601 had an inflow of 556 million. The CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.704 billion, the CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.179 billion, and the CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 2.692 billion [7]. **Analysis of Each Variety** - **Copper**: Due to the lower - than - expected US ADP employment data, the Fed's expected rate cut expands, and the US dollar index falls. The processing fee of smelters has decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price is at a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and domestic copper production is expected to decline. Although it is currently the off - season, copper demand is boosted by investment in power grid facilities. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The supply in Jiangxi has shrunk, but the increase in spodumene production has made up for the gap. The national audit agency's policy on mines in Yichun needs attention. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - **Crude Oil**: It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. EIA data shows an unexpected inventory build - up in crude oil and an unexpected de - stocking in gasoline. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. The US - India tariff issue may change the global crude oil trade flow [11]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate has declined, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased but remains at a low level. The cost support has weakened due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [14]. - **PP**: The downstream construction rate has rebounded slightly, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production. As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate has increased. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has increased slightly. The supply has increased, and the downstream construction rate is still low. The export outlook is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. New production capacity is being released [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has risen. Most of the temporarily shut - down mines in Jinzhong have resumed production, and the inventory of mines has dropped significantly. Downstream coke production is active, and steel mills' profits have weakened. After the parade, steel mill production is expected to increase [21]. - **Urea**: The upstream factory price is weakly stable, and new orders are scarce. The Indian tender price is significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume has reached a record high. The daily production of urea is at a low level, but the supply pattern remains loose. The demand from compound fertilizer factories has decreased but is expected to recover. The factory inventory has increased [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market showed a pattern of weakening in the first four trading days and strengthening in the afternoon of Friday, recovering the weekly decline. With the end of the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the market supply - demand structure will dominate the market. Entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", attention should be paid to the degree of demand improvement. Currently, the coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6][38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits. The steel mills' acceptance of coke price increases has gradually slowed down, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [33][41]. Summary According to the Directory Report Summary (PART 01) - In the first four trading days of this week, the double - coking futures market weakened, and on Friday afternoon, it strengthened to recover the decline. The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. The macro - sentiment warmed up on Friday, and commodities and the stock market rose in resonance. After the parade, the industry production will recover, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [6]. - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites improved, with a slightly narrower increase, and the improvement in housing construction projects was greater. Starting from September 4, Tangshan independent steel mills gradually resumed normal production. In early September, some coal mines in Shanxi had large - scale and regional shutdowns, mainly in Changzhi, Linfen, and Jinzhong, and most shutdowns were for 2 - 5 days, with some resuming production on the evening of September 3 [7]. - The supply of coking coal has shrunk, upstream inventory has decreased slightly, independent coking enterprises have continued to reduce coking coal inventory, steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, the overall coke output has slightly declined, iron - water production has decreased, coke consumption has followed suit, and the profitability of coking enterprises has continued to improve [7]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish Factors**: Reduced inventory pressure of coking coal, expected reduction in coking coal supply, expected increase in iron - water production after the parade, high certainty of Fed rate cuts, and loose domestic liquidity [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: Temporary decline in iron - water production leading to weakening coke demand, and low enthusiasm for downstream coking coal replenishment [10]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Coking Coal Supply**: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines decreased this week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port slightly declined. With the end of the parade, some coal mines have resumed production [13]. - **Coking Coal Upstream Inventory**: As of September 5, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal - washing plants decreased, while the port coking coal inventory increased slightly. The upstream inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory**: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal inventory remained weak [21]. - **Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory**: As of September 5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased, and the available days increased. Steel mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand [25]. - **Coke Output**: As of September 5, the capacity utilization rates and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The output of coking enterprises changed little, while the output of steel mills decreased significantly due to parade - related production restrictions [27]. - **Iron - Water Production and Coke Consumption**: As of September 5, China's coke consumption and the daily output of iron - water from 247 steel enterprises decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises declined. With the end of the parade, steel mills have resumed production, and iron - water production will recover [32]. - **Coking Enterprises' Profitability**: As of September 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 64 yuan/ton, and the profitability continued to improve. The seventh round of coke price increases was implemented, but the eighth round is difficult to implement, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts [33]. - **Double - Coking Forward - Month Basis Structure**: The spot and futures prices of double - coking are oscillating at high levels [35]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - The market bets that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 100%. The domestic central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5. After the parade, the industry will see production recovery, and the supply - demand structure will dominate the market. The coking coal market is in a weak equilibrium, and short - term fluctuations are the main trend [38]. - The increase in coke prices has eroded some of the steel mills' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The eighth round of price increases is difficult to implement, and the steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. In the short term, the coke futures market will fluctuate with coking coal [41].