Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel and ore are expected to have upside potential after bottoming out and oscillating. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions with stop - loss set [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the production and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, while both factory and social inventories increased. The supply of rebar and hot - rolled coils is expected to increase as steel mills in Tangshan and other places resume production. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand is expected to rise, and the capital availability rate of downstream construction has increased month - on - month. The cement delivery has been continuously improving, and the construction market is gradually transitioning to the peak season [5]. - This week, the daily output of hot metal was 228,840 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,900 tons. It is expected that the hot metal output will rebound later, supporting the demand for iron ore. The arrival and shipment of iron ore this period increased month - on - month. The resistance level of the main iron ore 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. - This week, steel and ore oscillated at the bottom. During the week, the finished steel reached a new low, and the iron ore trend was still stronger than that of the finished steel [6]. Important News - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and about a 35% year - on - year increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the heavy - truck market since April this year [11]. - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The market demand in the manufacturing industry has improved, with a slight month - on - month rebound [11]. - In August, the output of special - quality steel bars from 46 domestic enterprises was 4.3527 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 263,800 tons. The expected output in September is 4.4783 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 454,800 tons [11]. - In August, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - On September 2nd, Jiangsu Shagang Group lowered the scrap steel purchase price by 50 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the truck - transported price for heavy - grade III scrap steel was 2,410 yuan/ton (including tax), and for furnace - grade I scrap steel was 2,490 yuan/ton (including tax). The cumulative decline in 2025 is 150 yuan/ton [11]. - On September 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,333 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average profit was - 135 yuan/ton, and the profit during off - peak electricity hours was - 39 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton [11]. - On September 3rd, the total scrap steel inventory of 300 long - and short - process representative steel mills was 4.944 million tons, a decrease of 28,600 tons (0.58%) from the previous day. The daily consumption was 543,700 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day, and the daily arrival was 515,100 tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous day [12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Affected by production restrictions due to major events, the steel supply decreased this week but is expected to increase [13]. - Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale loss, while some blast furnaces still have profits. After the military parade, steel production will recover, and the daily hot metal output is likely to rise above 240,000 tons [15]. - The iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, and the arrival pressure is still expected to be high later. The port inventory has increased [23]. - From August 25th to August 31st, the total global iron ore shipment was 35.568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41 million tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 29.021 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.417 million tons. Australia's shipment was 18.946 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 502,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.874 million tons. Brazil's shipment was 10.075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.919 million tons [25]. - From August 25th to August 31st, the total arrival at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; the total arrival at 45 ports was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; and the total arrival at six northern ports was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the US dollar index has declined due to the significant difference between the actual and expected increase in the US ADP employment in August and the expansion of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which supports the non - ferrous metal market. Domestically, copper supply is expected to tighten as the smelter processing fees have decreased, the sulfuric acid price is at a high level, 5 smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the import of copper will impact the domestic market. Although it is currently the off - season for copper consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand, and there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, it is expected that copper prices will be mainly oscillating and strengthening, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, far from the market expectation of 65,000, and the July data was revised to 104,000. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have expanded, leading to a decline in the US dollar index. The smelter processing fees have decreased after a short - term rebound, and the sulfuric acid price is expected to be at a high level, which will reduce the profit compensation for smelters. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market and affecting pricing. As of July 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand. Currently, the downstream's willingness to buy is poor after the copper price rises, and the premium is under pressure, but there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and rose during the day, closing at 80,140 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 4, 2025, the LME official price was 9,885 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 72 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - 41.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 US cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 18,900 tons, a decrease of 902 tons from the previous period. As of September 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 short tons, an increase of 18,344 short tons from the previous period [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with positions and stood above the 80,000 mark again. Due to the domestic market recovery and the arrival of the peak season, the upward momentum is strong [4]. - **沪铝**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum increased without positions and reached the 20,700 level. With the market recovery and the peak season approaching, the industry support is expected to strengthen, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **沪镍**: The nickel price fluctuated strongly, and the position increased slightly. After the market digested the Indonesian demonstration disturbance, with the macro - recovery and industry - positive digestion, the bulls' willingness to close positions is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: After the September 3rd parade, the logistics supply in the North China electrolytic copper market returned to normal. As the copper price rose, downstream consumption was significantly suppressed, and the spot premium continued to decline. In mid - to - late September, smelters will have concentrated maintenance periods, and the market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 122,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约1.69%。 行情展望：国际方面，美国农业部(USDA)驻巴西专员发布的报告显示，预计巴西 2025/26年度棉花产量预估上修至1810万包（约394万吨），较最初预测的1780万包 （约387万吨）提高1.6%，较2024/25年度创记录的1700万包（约370万吨）增长 6.5%，上调原因主要是种植面积扩大。国内方面，棉花商业库存处于近年来相对低 位水平，且进口同比大幅减少，新棉上市前供应趋于偏紧状态。需求端，市场对 "金九银十"需求旺季有一定预期。截至目前主流纺企开机负荷在六成附近，环比 上升明显，刷新逾一个月最高水平，旺季订单在缓慢回暖过程。总体来说，新棉大 量上市前，国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求边际回暖，预计期价延续高位震荡运行。 策略建议，操作上，郑棉2601合约 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD BZ&EB 纯苯本周开工率高位，整体港口库存偏高，后续可能累库。下游综合开工率下滑，整体利润仍然较差。短期看纯苯需求有一定支撑， BZN价差走弱。苯乙烯本周无新增装置检修，但预计月底有装置检修供应收缩，关注检修兑现情况。苯乙烯下游综合开工率下降， 终端提货情况偏弱，三S整体库存仍然较高，当前已进入消费旺季，需求可能有所好转，关注后续表现，苯乙烯在9月检修量较高， 预计价格在有底部支撑情况下震荡运行。 品种 周度观点 原油 近期国际能源署（IEA）发布能源展望报告，在OPEC+产油国扩增产量叠加需求增长缓慢的背景下，预计明年全球原油市场将面临 创纪录供应过剩局面。地缘政治上俄乌停战前景尚不明朗，随着能源需求旺季临近结束，原油价格仍是在弱趋势中调整，关注本周 日OPEC+ 会议看是否会在10月份暂停增产。 PX&PTA PX负荷波动不大，库存依旧处于低位但由去库转为累库，紧平衡格局松动，PX加工费支撑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment, with supply pressure and weak demand, and the chlorine - alkali profit still has room for compression. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase, and the non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing. The chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4883 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 213 yuan/ton (-5), and the South China basis is - 133 yuan/ton (-25). The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The blue charcoal price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 399 yuan/ton (-176), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 628 yuan/ton (-36), and the PVC export profit is 13.7 US dollars/ton (-4.3) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6), the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4), the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2593 yuan/ton (-19), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 126 yuan/ton (+19). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 tons (+0.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of many maintenance enterprises and new production capacity. The demand side has low downstream product start - up and weak export. The social inventory is accumulating, and the chlorine - alkali profit has room for compression [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply - side start - up rate is slightly rising. The demand - side inventory in Shandong has accumulated due to transportation restrictions, but the subsequent shipment pressure is small. The non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing, and the chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4]. Strategy PVC - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bearish. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when it is low. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [6].

京沪楼市蓄力"金九银十" 中新社北京9月5日电 (记者 庞无忌)在8月份先后放宽购房政策后，北京和上海楼市动能有所回升。业内 人士认为，京沪楼市韧性较强，政策支持有望为传统销售旺季"金九银十"蓄力。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶指出，整体来看，京沪本轮政策并没有一步到位，而是延续渐进式 放松节奏，基本符合市场预期。不过，鉴于政策力度温和，且2024年多轮政策优化后需求已有集中释 放，后续购房需求大概率呈现逐步释放态势。 曹晶晶认为，作为全国楼市"风向标"，京沪楼市在传统旺季到来前同步推出支持性政策，旨在为"金九 银十"蓄力。结合上半年京沪优质地块成交较多，她指出，后续房企推盘节奏预计将加快，有望带动市 场交易量逐步恢复，进一步推动楼市止跌回稳。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 8月8日，北京出台楼市新政称，符合购房条件的家庭在五环外购买商品住房(含新房及二手房)不限 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the rise in share prices of Chinese real estate stocks, with notable increases for companies such as Country Garden (up 6.74%), Shimao Group (up 5.08%), R&F Properties (up 4.29%), and Sunac China (up 3.25%) [1] - Recent government policies across various cities are aimed at boosting the real estate market during the traditional sales peak of "Golden September and Silver October," with measures including relaxed purchase restrictions, cancellation of sales limits, and home purchase subsidies [1] - A report from Guotai Junan suggests that the acceleration of property launches and increased discounting by real estate companies is likely, especially with favorable policies being implemented in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that cities such as Shanghai, Suzhou, and Changchun have introduced new real estate policies since late August, aimed at reducing home buying costs and stimulating housing consumption [1] - The report also emphasizes the potential for further easing of restrictions in Shenzhen, following the trend set by other major cities [1] - Attention is drawn to the implications of potential overseas interest rate cuts and domestic macro monetary policy adjustments, as well as the implementation of urban renewal and land acquisition policies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] - Options: Buy call options [4] Core View of the Report - The inventory continues to decrease, and the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate continues to improve. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, leading to a temporary supply shortage [1]. - The futures market rebounds due to news from the lithium ore approval end, and the spot supply - demand pattern remains good. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, but the market fluctuates greatly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 73,420 yuan/ton, a 1.05% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 712,151 lots, and the open interest was 353,674 lots, compared with 346,048 lots the previous day. The basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 34,948 lots, a change of 830 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, a - 900 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, also a - 900 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. - From August 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.952 million vehicles, a 3% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 14.698 million vehicles, a 9% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.409 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 17.934 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase [2]. - The weekly production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, with a slight increase in production from lithium spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, intermediate inventory increased slightly, and smelter inventory decreased significantly [2]. Strategy - The futures market rebounded mainly due to news from the lithium ore approval end. The spot supply - demand pattern is good, and inventory continues to decrease. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, but the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term and are bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests buying on dips [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests moderately holding long positions at low levels; Aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin suggests range trading; Gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][11][16][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to run in a volatile pattern; Rubber is expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Polyolefins are expected to run in a wide - range volatile pattern; Soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [1][19][21][24][26][28][30][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to run in a volatile pattern; PTA is expected to run in a volatile pattern within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Jujubes are expected to run with a moderately weak bias [1][33][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Live pigs suggest shorting on rallies; Eggs suggest shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to run in a range - bound pattern; Soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; Oils and fats are expected to have high - level adjustments [1][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, shorting on rallies, range trading, and arbitrage [1][5][7][9][10][11][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][36][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The A - share market was volatile on Thursday. Short - term fluctuations are due to technical consolidation needs, but the adjustment is a healthy turnover rather than a trend reversal. It is bullish in the long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market has relatively low risks in the short - term. Although the bond yield has been rising recently, the stage top has appeared, and it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The pit - mouth price has increased recently. It is recommended to focus on the range of [1030 - 1230] for trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price has been rising recently. The supply - demand relationship has weakened in reality, but the price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the core range of [3000 - 3300] for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has improved recently. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract paying attention to the support level of 1110 - 1120 [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level volatile pattern. It is expected to have an upward trend in the future due to the approaching peak season. It is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or conduct a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 26 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and gold**: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased, and the prices of precious metals have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with the SHFE silver 10 contract referring to the range of 9000 - 9800 and the SHFE gold 10 contract referring to the range of 775 - 820 [17] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 4700 - 5000 [19][20] - **Caustic soda**: Affected by the warehouse receipt pressure and the short - term peak of the spot price, the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. The 01 contract is expected to run within the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][23] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are under pressure, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [24][25] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, and the inventory is in a destocking cycle. It is expected to run with a moderately strong bias, paying attention to the support level of 15600 [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the support level of 1680 - 1720 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to increase. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply and demand are both improving, but the demand improvement is relatively limited. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, with the L2601 contract paying attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2601 contract paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand from photovoltaic glass has improved. It is recommended to adopt a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [32] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global supply - demand situation has improved, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. The price is expected to be under downward pressure in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33][34] - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern with a moderately strong bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 4900 [34][35] - **Apples**: The prices of early - maturing apples are higher than last year, and the market is expected to run with a moderately strong bias [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to run with a moderately weak bias [36] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is growing slowly. The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 11 contract's pressure level at 13700 - 14000 and the 01 contract's pressure level at 14000 - 14300. It is also recommended to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may rebound slightly in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to run in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategy [42] - **Soybean meal**: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract [43][45] - **Oils and fats**: The short - term prices are under pressure, but the downward adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and then go long, with the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil having support levels at 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively [46][48][49][52]