1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to be oscillating strongly. The supply of cotton is tight this year, with the 09 contract likely to rise in the short - and medium - term. However, the 01 contract may face a more relaxed supply situation due to expected new cotton production in Xinjiang. The price is affected by the macro - environment, especially the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. It is recommended to hedge at the rebound high this year [1]. - PTA is in a range - bound oscillation. The cost end is loose, the downstream is wait - and - see, and the short - term domestic PTA spot market may continue to be under pressure [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is in a range - bound oscillation. The cost end has declined, and the supply - demand pattern is favorable, but there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is in a range - bound oscillation. Although the price has rebounded, considering the upcoming off - season in the terminal market and the end of upstream spring maintenance, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - Sugar is oscillating. Internationally, the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started, and the market has mixed expectations. Domestically, factors are also mixed, and the sugar price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [3]. - Apples are in a high - level oscillation. The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high, but macro - risks need to be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Information - In April 2025, China's economic growth was stable. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, the service production index increased by 6%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%. From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.1% [7]. - The US leading economic index in April 2025 dropped by 1% to 99.4 points, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [7]. 3.2 Each Variety's Fundamental Information Tracking Cotton - As of the end of April 2025, the commercial inventory was 415 tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 tons. If the monthly consumption is 65 tons, the commercial inventory will be 155 tons by the end of August, tighter than in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the price is likely to rise in the short - and medium - term. The 01 contract may face a more relaxed supply situation due to expected new cotton production in Xinjiang [1]. - On May 19, 2025, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. PTA - As of May 14, 2025, the average PTA processing interval in China was 390.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.68%. The domestic supply increased slightly, and the processing interval decreased significantly [8]. - As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate in China was 74.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year increase of 4.68%. The domestic PTA output was 129.67 tons, a decrease of 0.54 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7 tons from the same period last year [8][9]. Ethylene Glycol - As of May 14, 2025, the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The output was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 1.32% from the previous week [12]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, 2025, the weekly output of domestic polyester short - fiber was 16.69 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% [10][11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the average polymerization cost of domestic polyester short - fiber was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.35%. The industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 86.41% [11]. Sugar - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) predicts that the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season will be 480 - 500 tons. The sugar production in the 2024/25 season as of May 15 was 2,574 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from the same period last year [11]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 547 tons. The expected sugar production in India in the 2024/25 season is 2,609 tons, lower than the previous forecast [11][12]. - In April 2025, China imported 13 tons of sugar, an increase of 7.57 tons year - on - year. From January to April, the total sugar imports were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 97.91 tons year - on - year [13]. Apple - As of May 14, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas of China was 195.10 tons, a decrease of 33.76 tons from the previous week. The current inventory is at a low level in the past five years [14]. - In the Luochuan area of Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting fruit farmer's general - grade apples is 4.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and the price of 70 starting semi - commercial apples is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan/jin. In the Qixia area of Shandong, the price of fruit farmer's third - grade apples is 2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and the price of fruit farmer's 80 above general - grade apples is 2.8 - 3.5 yuan/jin [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to weak realities from strong expectations in the cobalt and lithium markets, with prices rebounding before retreating [14][15]. - The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to buffer the downward trend in lithium prices, although the overall market remains cautious [14][15]. - Cobalt market dynamics are characterized by a tightening supply and a cautious outlook from industry players, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is experiencing a slight price decline, with the Wuxi 2507 contract down 1.57% to 62,600 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2507 contract down 1.94% to 61,800 CNY/ton [14]. - Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 712 USD/ton, down 13 USD/ton from the previous period [14]. - Recommended stocks for overweight positions include Zhongmin Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Keda Manufacturing, and Tibet Mining [14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including a major discovery at the Tamarack copper-nickel project in Minnesota [19]. - The International Cobalt Institute predicts a shift to a cobalt shortage by the early 2030s, driven by demand growth outpacing supply [19]. - Salt Lake Co. has signed a project cooperation letter indicating a potential investment of around 300 million USD in Highfield Resources [19]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw a month-on-month decline in April [20]. - Lithium carbonate production decreased by 7% month-on-month but increased by 40% year-on-year [22]. - Cobalt sulfate production increased by 11% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year [23]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2.15% to a range of 66,100-64,600 CNY/ton [57]. 4. Listed Company Profit Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have a PE ratio of 86.06 for 2025, while Tianqi Lithium is rated cautiously with a PE of 58.30 for 2025 [94]. - Huayou Cobalt is rated for an overweight position with a PE of 11.79 for 2025 [94].

5月12日，中美两国在日内瓦举行的经贸会谈上达成了一项突破性协议，双方决定取消91%的加征关税，并暂停实施24%的对等关税，这一重大消息让无数 外贸企业如同久旱逢甘霖，纷纷开始催单、抢发货。美国零售商们的狂欢显示了他们对中国商品的强烈依赖，而这一切，不仅是对市场变化的即时反应，更 是在未来90天内与中美贸易关系走向的不确定性博弈中的一次"资源调配"。 可以说，中美之间的贸易关系在复杂的关税政策下经历了颠簸的航程。根据近期的数据，中国制造的产品在美国市场上占据了绝对优势，尤其在玩具、电子 产品、服装等领域，中国市场的份额高达80%。这样的依赖不仅反映在企业间的交易频繁，更体现了美国消费者对于中国产品的根深蒂固的需求。 就拿玩具行业来说，美国的零售商们在得知关税下调的消息后，几乎像是失去了理智般，迅速向中国工厂下达了大量订单，他们迫切希望在即将到来的假期 购物季前填满货架。正因为此，深圳的一家外贸企业在短短半天内便收到了六个客户的催单电话，而不少厂家为了赶工，甚至连夜加班，这种现象直接体现 在了运输的紧张上。 特朗普虽然暂时松口，但就在协议达成后的24小时内，他便再次以威胁的口吻指出，如果在接下来的90天内无法达 ...

豆粕：暂无驱动，盘面震荡 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面略微偏强震荡 2025 年 05 月 19 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） 4168 | -13（-0.31%） | +20（+0.48%） 4185 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） 2899 | -4（-0.14%） | 2896 -6（-0.21%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） 1051 | -0.25（-0.02%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） 291.8 | -4.6（-1.55%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 3000～3100， 山东 （元/吨） | 较昨-50或持平； 月M2509-60/-40/-30， 持平； M2509+20/+50/+60， M2601+120/+130/+150/+160/+17 ...

华源证券近日发布有色金属 大宗金属周报：受中美关税"降级"催化影响电解铝大涨，后 伴随氧化铝价格反弹而反弹，成本支撑仍是电解铝价格主线。库存方面，现货库存58万吨， 环比降低6.3%，沪铝库存15.6万吨，环比降低8.0%，相比上周库存改善明显，一方面有上周 过节因素另一方面受中美缓和下游补库影响，5-6月份本为传统淡季，但考虑中美缓和或出 现"淡季不淡"的情况，价格高度随氧化铝波动，或反弹至2.05-2.1万元/吨。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 铜：铜价维持震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.86%/+0.89%/-1.34%，本周一中美发布经贸会谈联合声明，实现对等关税"降级"，受此催 化全球商品价格反弹，沪铜一度反弹至7.9万元/吨，后续逐步回落至7.8万元/吨。基本面方 面，受美国232铜进口调查影响，海外铜库存仍在转移，LME库存下降而comex库存高增， 反观国内库存开始回升，smm社会库存13.2万吨，环增9.91%，沪铜库存10.8万吨，环增 34%。下游开工开始回升，铜杆开工率73.26%，同增10.47pct。我们认为铜价短期维持震 荡，宏观面重点关注：1 ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜兰素英 由于美国政府在贸易政策上的不确定性，昔日作为美国最重要物流节点的洛杉矶港近来呈现出一种令人不安的萧条。 作为美国第一大集装箱港口，洛杉矶港以处理大量集装箱货物而知名，是连接亚洲与美国市场的重要枢纽，与第二大集装箱港口长滩港共同承载着全美总装 卸量的40%。其中，洛杉矶港高达45%的业务与中国直接相关。 洛杉矶港务局执行董事吉恩·塞罗卡（Gene Seroka）预计，到本月底，靠港船只数量将减少20%，货运量将下降约25%。 不过，随着《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》在5月12日发布，这种清冷的局面有望很快逆转。《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）查询船运追 踪系统Port Optimizer发现，洛杉矶当地港口本周和下周的货物进口量环比预计将分别增长16.1%和21.98%。 随着90天窗口期的达成，全球航运市场已进入"骤热"模式。全球数字货运平台Flexport的CEO瑞安·彼得森（Ryan Petersen）表示，本周中国至美国的海运订 单量较上周增长了275%。 需求的爆炸式释放正迅速推高航运价格。八家船运公司已经针对亚洲到美国的航线宣布了GRI（General ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached $45.8 million, an increase of 19.3% compared to the same period last year [11] - For the nine-month period, total revenue grew 14.6% to $139.5 million, reflecting sustained demand for logistics solutions [12] - Cost of sales for Q3 was $45.6 million, leading to a gross profit of $280,000, while the nine-month cost of sales was $122.3 million, resulting in a gross loss of $2.85 million [11][13] - The net loss for Q3 was $3.76 million, or $0.09 per share, and for the nine-month period, the net loss was $10.06 million, or $0.24 per share [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to face operational investments and market-related cost pressures that have impacted profitability, despite revenue growth [7] - Efforts are being made to optimize the expanded warehouse footprint and enhance operational efficiency across all service lines [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a substantial reduction in tariff fees, which is expected to positively impact the logistics sector and the company's margins [6][8] - The favorable trade environment is anticipated to alleviate some cost pressures and create a more variable operating landscape for the logistics sector [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to leveraging technology and providing comprehensive supply chain solutions while navigating the evolving economic landscape [10] - Strategic initiatives are focused on optimizing operations, managing costs, and enhancing service delivery to improve profitability [15][19] - The company aims to capitalize on emerging opportunities presented by the improved trade environment and is well-positioned with its extensive warehouse network [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the future, highlighting the positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations and their potential benefits for operations [14][15] - The company is focused on sustainable growth and improving profitability while managing the challenges posed by inflationary pressures and dynamic market conditions [14][15] Other Important Information - The company is actively implementing measures to improve efficiency and profitability, anticipating that recent trade developments will contribute to alleviating cost pressures [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Despite cost pressures, what are the key drivers behind sustained demand for ArmaLagi services and how is the company working to improve profitability? - The sustained revenue growth of 19.3% for the quarter is driven by the essential nature of logistics solutions and strong client relationships, with a focus on optimizing operations and managing costs to improve profitability [19] Question: How is ArmaLagi positioned to benefit from the improved trade environment? - The company anticipates benefits from reduced tariff fees, which can lower costs for customers, stimulate higher trade volumes, and ease cost pressures in the supply chain [21][22] Question: How does ArmaLagi view its long-term strategic positioning and ability to capture future growth opportunities? - The company is confident in its long-term strategic positioning, leveraging its infrastructure and technology to navigate the evolving landscape and capitalize on growth opportunities [23][24]

Core Insights - The recent breakthrough in US-China trade tensions has led to a surge in trade activities, with Chinese factories and ports becoming increasingly active as companies rush to capitalize on the temporary "truce" [1][5] - Chinese companies have seen a significant increase in order volumes, with some reporting a 30% rise, while container shipping orders to the US have skyrocketed by nearly 300% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Activity and Order Volumes - Container shipping orders from China to the US increased by nearly 300% in the week ending May 13, compared to the previous week [2] - A sales representative from a toy procurement company noted a 30% increase in orders following the trade talks, prompting the company to hire more staff to meet demand [2] - The Los Angeles port experienced a 50% drop in cargo volume during the height of the trade tensions, but is now seeing a recovery as companies rush to ship backlogged inventory [2][4] Group 2: Shipping Costs and Consumer Impact - Shipping costs for containers to the US have risen by approximately 50%, with the increased costs ultimately being passed on to American consumers [7] - A spokesperson from Maersk reported a 30% to 40% decrease in shipping volume prior to the trade talks, but a subsequent increase in bookings has been observed [7] Group 3: Business Strategies and Market Shifts - Many US companies are canceling orders placed in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia to return to Chinese suppliers, despite ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs [5][6] - Chinese manufacturers are actively seeking to expand into new markets, particularly in Europe, where orders have reportedly increased by nearly 20% [8] - A lighting company owner expressed a commitment to maintaining relationships with Chinese factories, highlighting the challenges and costs associated with shifting production to other countries [8]

Group 1 - The meeting between China's State Councilor He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Becerra in Switzerland is confirmed, focusing on tariff discussions [1][3] - This marks the first in-person contact regarding economic and trade issues since Trump's second term began, drawing significant international attention [3] - Becerra previously indicated that the high tariffs of up to 145% between China and the US are akin to a trade embargo and need to be "cooled down" [5] Group 2 - Following the agreement to meet, the US House of Representatives passed a bill restricting cooperation between US and Chinese universities, which could impact educational ties [9][19] - The bill aims to protect US students and intellectual property, receiving bipartisan support despite criticism from some Democratic lawmakers [11] - The US Treasury has also imposed sanctions on Chinese companies involved in Iranian oil trade, indicating a tough stance from the Trump administration [14][21] Group 3 - The timing of these sanctions suggests a strategy to pressure China ahead of the trade negotiations, reflecting a "carrot and stick" approach in US foreign policy [16][23] - The sanctions have already affected the targeted Chinese refineries, forcing them to halt oil purchases and alter their sales strategies [17] - The restrictions on educational cooperation could weaken China's research and innovation capabilities, as a significant number of Chinese students study in the US [19] Group 4 - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed a desire to avoid conflict and trade wars, emphasizing the importance of dialogue over confrontation [27][29] - Despite not wanting to engage in trade wars, China is prepared to face challenges and has confidence in overcoming difficulties posed by US trade policies [29][31] - The evolving trade relationship between China and the US is crucial not only for the two nations but also for global economic stability, with calls for cooperation and mutual benefit [33]

有色金属日报 2025-5-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走弱，美国零售增长放缓，贵金属价格企稳，铜价下探回升，昨日伦铜微涨 0.08%至 9600 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78490 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 925 至 184650 吨，注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.6%，Cash/3M 升水 14.8 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会 ...