2024 年 7 月 7 日 碳酸锂半年报 产能出清加速 锂价弱势震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 ⚫ 上半年，碳酸锂价格在年初受下游节前补库驱动有 所反弹，节后，新能源汽车终端销量持续下滑。上游 锂盐厂大幅降本增效，盘面C结构配合款月差为冶炼 企业提供舒适套保环境，锂盐产量快速爬坡，现货库 存累库，锂价随之进入下行。6月，在锂价新低背景 下，锂盐产量有明显收缩。材料厂下旬积极补库，下 ...

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 7 日 逻辑：上周，安全生产月结束，叠加督导组完成为期一个月的进驻巡 视，部分区域煤矿逐步复产，影响市场多头情绪降温，但周二会议提出反 内卷和去产能，虽然主要针对的产业是电动汽车和光伏，但因煤炭市场供 给较为过剩，再次对市场情绪形成扰动，促使煤焦价格震荡加剧。后续关 注具体政策措施的落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：供需压力稍有缓解 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要 ...

雷军在其微博发文称，小米YU7用户改配倾向明显，更多人选择Max高配版，热门颜色为影青 色、珍珠白、流金粉。 此前，雷军在直播时透露，小米YU7测试投入653台车辆，累计完成649万公里道路实测，覆盖 296个城市。此外，小米汽车已经在纽北租用了办公室，一共2780平方米，预计明年年初启用。 今年7月1日，小米汽车官方微博"晒"出了2025年6月的交付成绩单。数据显示，小米汽车6月交 付量超过25000台。小米汽车表示，正在全力以赴抓紧生产。 民生证券认为，截至目前，小米SU7仍有大量定单尚未交付，据小米汽车APP显示，锁单后交付 时间在30周以上。目前，小米二期工厂尚未竣工，预计近期有望开始投产；一期工厂设计产能 15万台，据雷军，双班倒之下目前每月也只能生产两三万台。因此，今年小米汽车交付量主要 取决于产能情况。 7月6日下午，小米首款SUV YU7在58城同步开启交付，北京小米科技园举行首批车主交付仪 式。小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军亲自为车主开车门、赠送捧花，并与用户互动合影。 上海证券报记者梳理发现，若以"新车型首次大规模交付仪式"为标准，这次小米YU7的交付是 继小米SU7和小米SU7 Ul ...

钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-07-07 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 4 元/吨（-0.13%）。当日注册仓单 29168 吨, 环比增加 2095 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.85 万手，环比增加 1338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3201 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.21%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 1491 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.08 万手，环比减少 1 ...

研究报告 鸡蛋周报 淡旺季转折期博弈升温，蛋价在供需错配中寻找方向 华龙期货投资咨询部 农产品板块研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周鸡蛋期货主力合约 JD2508 震荡运行，盘面多空博弈加 剧，截至上周五报收 3582 元/500 千克，总成交量 125885 手，持 仓 184136 手，周涨幅 1.1%。 研究报告 一、走势回顾 （一）期货价格 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 上周鸡蛋主产区均价 2.70 元/斤，环比下降 6.25%，主销区 均价 2.76 元/斤，环比下降 2.47%。上周主产区价格先跌后稳， 周初受湿热天气制约，鸡蛋存储难度加大，各环节购销相对谨慎 积极出货，市场情绪偏弱，蛋价承压走低，随着蛋价跌至低位， 贸易商、冷库、食品企业入库支撑，叠加养殖端低价抵触心态， 蛋价下方支撑较强。目前在产蛋鸡存栏量仍处高位，供应压力显 著，产能去化不充分 ...

Group 1 - The central theme of the news highlights the mixed performance of the livestock breeding index and the impact of government policies on the industry, particularly focusing on the elimination of outdated production capacity and the enhancement of product quality [1][3] - As of July 4, the livestock ETF has seen a net value increase of 12.16% over the past six months, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need for regulated competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacities, which is expected to stabilize market prices and promote sustainable development in the pig farming industry [1][3] Group 2 - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 65.27% of the index, with major players including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group [3] - The performance of the top ten stocks shows a mixed trend, with some stocks like Haida Group and Wens Foodstuff experiencing slight declines, while others like Shengnong Development and Biological Shares showed positive growth [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the initial market performance and order dynamics of the YU7 vehicle, indicating strong demand but also notable order cancellations due to various factors [1][2][3] Group 2 - In the first week post-launch, YU7 secured approximately 340,000 orders, but over 70,000 cancellations were noted, primarily due to long delivery times and impulsive buying behavior [1] - The order structure shows that low-spec versions account for 57% of total orders, with expectations that this will shift to around 62% as consumer decisions become more rational [2] - The YU7 project began mass production in July, with an annual capacity target between 140,000 to 185,000 units, but actual output may fall at the lower end of this range due to production ramp-up challenges [3] Group 3 - To alleviate supply-demand imbalances, the company plans to lease existing factories and modify equipment, potentially releasing new capacity by December 2025, alongside plans for a new factory expected to be operational by April 2026 with a capacity of 300,000 to 400,000 units [4]

Group 1: Price and Basis - The market sentiment has improved due to expectations of "capacity reduction and anti-involution," leading to a significant increase in futures prices and a weakening basis, with rebar futures trading at a premium to spot prices and hot-rolled coil futures at a discount [1] Group 2: Costs and Profits - On the cost side, the resumption of production in Shanxi's coking coal is expected to increase supply; iron ore shipments in June have surged, leading to a slight increase in iron ore inventory [1] - Current profit margins are shrinking, with the order of profitability from high to low being billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] Group 3: Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with June iron element production decreasing by 65,000 tons compared to May, including a drop of 45,000 tons in pig iron and 20,000 tons in scrap steel [1] - The production of the five major materials increased by 40,000 tons to 8.85 million tons, with rebar production up by 33,000 tons to 2.21 million tons and hot-rolled coil production up by 9,000 tons to 3.28 million tons [1] Group 4: Demand - The apparent demand for the five major materials has stabilized at a high level, with a slight increase of 54,000 tons to 8.85 million tons; however, the production of these materials has decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic demand remains weak despite export growth, and inventory levels are at seasonal lows, with June steel supply and demand being roughly balanced [2] Group 5: Inventory - Current inventory levels are at seasonal lows, with a year-on-year decrease; the five major materials inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 13.4 million tons [2] - Rebar inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 5.45 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.45 million tons [2] Group 6: Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved following the sixth Central Financial Committee's mention of "anti-involution," with expectations of supply-side reforms reminiscent of 2015-2018 [2] - Short-term steel supply and demand are balanced, with manageable inventory pressure; despite expectations of weaker demand in the second half of the year, supply contraction expectations are likely to dominate market sentiment [2] - Steel prices are expected to return to the previous fluctuation range, with hot-rolled coil futures projected to fluctuate between 3,150 and 3,300, and rebar between 3,050 and 3,150 [2]

Core Insights - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee on July 1 has signaled a shift in policy towards developing a "unified market" and addressing excessive competition leading to price declines [1][5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the steel industry will accelerate its 50 million ton production cut plan, with a projected 6% year-on-year decline in output for the second half of the year, leading to improved profit margins [1][2] - The cement industry is expected to see a significant reduction in excess capacity, with 22-27% of surplus capacity likely to be eliminated, resulting in a potential increase in average gross profit to 80 yuan per ton or higher [4] Steel Industry - Goldman Sachs estimates a 70% probability of executing the steel production cut plan, which could lead to a 12% reduction in crude steel output in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half [2][3] - The implied price difference in rebar futures suggests that steel profit margins could expand by nearly 200 yuan per ton [3] Cement Industry - The unauthorized excess clinker capacity is estimated to exceed 400 million tons, accounting for about 18% of the total industry capacity, with an additional 277-377 million tons facing exit pressure [4] - The potential closure of unauthorized and high-energy-consuming capacity could raise the industry's capacity utilization rate from 50% to 70% [4] Policy Direction - The recent policy shift indicates a move from short-term measures against "involution" to a more fundamental capacity exit mechanism, which is expected to lead to sustainable profit improvements in related industries [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the challenges faced by Xiaomi in the automotive sector, particularly in balancing production efficiency with quality and delivery issues [1][2][4] - Xiaomi's factory in Beijing operates at a remarkable pace of 76 seconds per vehicle, outperforming competitors like Tesla's Model 3 at 90 seconds and the industry average of 120 seconds [1] - Despite high production speed, Xiaomi's SU7 model faces significant delivery backlogs, with 150,000 units unfulfilled, indicating underlying operational challenges [2] Group 2 - The company has ambitious production goals, aiming for a monthly output of 8,000 units by August 2025, with a target annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles by the end of the year [2] - Xiaomi's aggressive cost-cutting measures include prepaying for battery supplies to reduce costs, but this has led to quality issues, with 32% of early SU7 owners reporting complaints about vehicle noise [2][3] - The company is also facing legal challenges, with a patent dispute initiated by Li Auto over alleged infringement, highlighting the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market [3] Group 3 - Xiaomi's strategy of rapid production and low pricing has resulted in a significant reduction in hardware profit margins, with the SU7's gross margin dropping to 1% [3] - The company is experiencing a trust crisis due to quality concerns, including a fatal accident linked to delayed automatic emergency braking (AEB) response times [3][4] - The upcoming performance of the second-phase factory in Q3 2025 will be critical for Xiaomi's automotive business, as success could lead to breakeven, while failure may jeopardize consumer confidence and future orders [4]