| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月2日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | | 品种 | | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | F期现价差 | | -21.09 | -0.22 | 44.60% | 22:30% | | 期现价差 | | H期现价差 | | -7.28 | -0.86 | 29.90% | 28.10% | | | | IC期现价差 | | -70.23 | -12.88 | 34.40% | 9.50% | | | | IM期现价差 | | -de 68 | -23.27 | 45.00% | 20.50% | | | | 次月-当月 | | -14.40 | 0.80 | 32.70% | 30.00% | | | | 李月-当月 | | -37,20 | -3.80 | 37.20% | 29.60% | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market has an overall high valuation. The domestic chemical market is strong, and civil demand is increasing, providing driving support. In winter, Middle - East LPG supplies decrease, and the arbitrage window between the US and Asia opens, providing short - term support for CP and MB. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] 3) Summary by Related Information Day - to - Day Changes - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices in East China were 4323 (+13), in Shandong 4460 (+10), and in South China 4360 (+25). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4490 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 6 (+37) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 84 (+8). The December CP official prices were announced, with propane and butane at 495/485 dollars/ton (+20/+25). FEI and CP paper goods were 514.6 and 501.63 dollars/ton respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The futures price went up, with a basis of - 89 (-72), a 01 - 02 month spread of 76 (-32), and a 03 - 04 month spread of - 192 (+51). The number of warehouse receipts was 4811 lots (+250). Civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the cheapest delivery product in East China at 4274 (+8), in Shandong at 4460 (+120), and in South China at 4650 (+85). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4490 (-20). The overseas market rose significantly. The December CP official prices were announced, with propane and butane at 495/485 (+20/+25). The oil - gas ratio decreased, the month spread strengthened, and the domestic - overseas spread weakened, with CP > FEI > MB. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 99 (+21), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 11.25 (+4.25), 38 (+3), and 39 (+0) respectively. The freight from the Middle - East to the Far East was 72 (+5). The FEI - MOPJ spread reached - 25 (+30). The spot profit of propylene produced by PDH in Shandong recovered slightly, while the futures profit dropped significantly; the alkylation unit was in a poor state; the MTBE production profit fluctuated. The arrival volume increased slightly, the external release increased by +2.57%. Supported by demand, refinery inventories decreased by - 1.98%, and port inventories decreased slightly (-1.27%). The PDH operating rate was 69.82% (+0.18pct) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 6 on 10/30, -8 on 11/25, 53 on 11/27, 44 on 11/28, 40 on 12/1, with a daily change of -4 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 106 on 10/30, 22 on 11/25, 83 on 11/27, 54 on 11/28, 60 on 12/1, with a daily change of 6 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 126 on 10/30, -18 on 11/25, 33 on 11/27, -16 on 11/28, -10 on 12/1, with a daily change of 6 [3] - The 12 - 01 spread was -4 on 11/25, -22 on 11/27, -18 on 11/28, -19 on 12/1, with a daily change of -1 [3] - The 12 - 03 spread was -6 on 10/30, -19 on 11/25, -51 on 11/27, -48 on 11/28, -50 on 12/1, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The 01 - 02 spread was -5 on 10/30, 8 on 11/25, -5 on 11/27, -7 on 11/28, -7 on 12/1, with a daily change of 0 [3] 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract (01) was 3254 on 10/30, 3068 on 11/25, 3007 on 11/27, 2996 on 11/28, 2990 on 12/1, with a daily change of -6 [3] - The trading volume was 212219 on 10/30, 242577 on 11/25, 376428 on 11/27, 587546 on 11/28, 310076 on 12/1, with a daily change of -277470 [3] - The open interest was 338671 on 10/30, 343749 on 11/25, 414242 on 11/27, 407598 on 11/28, 421766 on 12/1, with a daily change of 14168 [3] - The warehouse receipts were 9120 on 10/30, 4690 from 11/25 to 12/1, with a daily change of 0 [3] 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil was $65.0 on 10/30, $63.4 on 11/25, $63.1 on 11/27, $63.3 on 11/28, $63.2 on 12/1, with a daily change of -$0.1 [3] - Jingbo's spot price was 3260 on 10/30, 3000 from 11/25 to 11/28, 2970 on 12/1, with a daily change of -30 [3] - Hongrun's spot price was 3180 on 10/30, 2980 from 11/25 to 11/27, 2960 on 11/28, 2950 on 12/1, with a daily change of -10 [3] - Zhenjiang Warehouse's spot price was 3360 on 10/30, 3090 from 11/25 to 11/27, 3050 from 11/28 to 12/1, with a daily change of 0 [3] - Foshan Warehouse's spot price was 3380 on 10/30, 3050 on 11/25, 3040 on 11/27, 2980 from 11/28 to 12/1, with a daily change of 0 [3] 4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 247 on 10/30, 177 on 11/25, 181 on 11/27, and 153 on 12/1, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries was 690 on 10/30, 764 on 11/25, 772 on 11/27, 749 on 11/28, 738 on 12/1, with a daily change of -12 [3]

Report Information - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [1] - Author: Zhang Pengzhen [1] - Author ID: Z0003135 [1] Futures Closing Prices - 01 Contract: Opened at 1677, closed at 1668, down 0.54% [2] - 05 Contract: Opened at 1743, closed at 1727, up 0.93% [2] - 09 Contract: Opened at 1757, closed at 1736, up 1.21% [2] - Methanol Main Contract: Opened at 2135, closed at 2114, up 0.99% [2] Futures Contract Spreads - 01 Contract - 05 Contract: Spread was -66 on November 28, down 11.86% from November 27 [2] - 05 Contract - 09 Contract: Spread was -14 on November 28, down 55.56% from November 27 [2] - 09 Contract - 01 Contract: Spread was 80 on November 28, up 17.65% from November 27 [2] - UR - MA Main Contract: Spread was -378 on both November 28 and 27 [2] Main Positions - Long Top 20: 127,004 on November 28, down 0.39% from November 27 [2] - Short Top 20: 153,617 on November 28, down 2.63% from November 27 [2] - Long - Short Ratio: 0.85 on November 28, up from 0.83 on November 27 [2] - Unilateral Trading Volume: 146,936 on November 28, up 9.26% from November 27 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts: 7,587 on November 28, up 5.65% from November 27 [2] Upstream Raw Materials - Anthracite Small Pieces (Shecheng): Price was 930 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Steam Coal Pit - Mouth (Ejin Horo Banner): Price was 620 yuan/ton on November 28, down from 630 yuan/ton on November 27 [2] - Steam Coal Port (Qinhuangdao): Price was 821 yuan/ton on November 28, down 0.12% from November 27 [2] - Synthetic Ammonia (Shandong): Price was 2,446 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.62% from November 27 [2] Spot Market Prices - Shandong (Small Granules): Price was 1,670 yuan/ton on November 28, up 1.21% from November 27 [2] - Shanxi (Small Granules): Price was 1,530 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.66% from November 27 [2] - Henan (Small Granules): Price was 1,660 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.61% from November 27 [2] - Northeast Region (Small Granules): Price was 1,720 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong (Small Granules): Price was 1,770 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.57% from November 27 [2] - Guangxi (Small Granules): Price was 1,810 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.56% from November 27 [2] - FOB China: Small Granules: Price was 400 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - US Gulf FOB: Large Granules: Price was 375 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Cross - Regional Spreads - Shandong - Henan: Spread was 10 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong - Henan: Spread was 110 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Guangdong - Shanxi: Spread was 240 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Domestic - Overseas Spread: Spread was 26 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Basis - Shandong Basis: Basis was -7 on November 28, up 61.11% from November 27 [2] - Shanxi Basis: Basis was -147 on November 28, up 0.68% from November 27 [2] - Henan Basis: Basis was -17 on November 28, up 5.56% from November 27 [2] - Guangdong Basis: Basis was 92 on November 28, up 1.09% from November 27 [2] Downstream Products - Melamine (Shandong): Price was 5,190 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer 45%S (Henan): Price was 3,000 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer 45%CL (Henan): Price was 2,580 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Compound Fertilizer - Urea Ratio: Ratio was 1.68 on November 28, down from 1.69 on November 27 [2] Fertilizer Market - Ammonium Sulfate (Shandong): Price was 1,070 yuan/ton on November 28, up 0.23% from November 27 [2] - Sulfur (Zhenjiang): Price was 3,960 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Potassium Hydride (Jinghai): Price was 3,150 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Monoammonium Phosphate (Jiangsu): Price was 3,750 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Monoammonium Phosphate (Baltic Sea): Price was 605 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Diammonium Phosphate (Jiangsu): Price was 4,250 yuan/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] - Diammonium Phosphate (US Gulf Region): Price was 647.7 US dollars/ton on both November 28 and 27 [2] Supply - Demand Situation Daily Data - Domestic Urea Daily Output: 20.34 million tons on November 28, up 1.19% from November 27 [2] - Coal - Based Urea Daily Output: 16.40 million tons on November 28, up 1.11% from November 27 [2] - Gas - Based Urea Daily Output: 3.94 million tons on November 28, up 1.55% from November 27 [2] - Small - Granule Urea Daily Output: 16.59 million tons on November 28, up 1.47% from November 27 [2] - Urea Manufacturer Operating Rate: 84.10% on November 28, up 1.19% from November 27 [2] Weekly Data - Domestic Urea Weekly Output: 141.70 million tons on November 28, down 0.24% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Plant Maintenance Loss (Weekly): 20.94 million tons on November 28, up 12.94% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea In - Plant Inventory (Weekly): 136.39 million tons on November 28, down 5.10% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Port Inventory (Weekly): 10.00 million tons on both November 28 and November 21 [2] - Domestic Northeast Urea Inflow (Weekly): 16.50 million tons on November 28, down 34.00% from November 21 [2] - Domestic Urea Producer Order Days (Weekly): 6.65 days on November 28, down 6.60% from November 21 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is in a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been average recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - The overall atmosphere in the cotton yarn industry is weakening, with the price of pure - cotton yarn remaining stable, and some large manufacturers offering price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand [10]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton, the closing prices were 13765, 13725, and 13860 respectively, with price increases of 40, 40, and 70. The trading volumes were 200,316, 118,427, and 4,067 hands respectively, showing decreases of 66,349, 3,732, and 1,026 hands. The open - interest positions were 546,943, 370,519, and 13,609, with increases of 1,675, 22,949, and 1,112 respectively. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn, the closing prices were 20045, 20040, and 20095 respectively, with price changes of - 45, 60, and - 30. The trading volumes were 4,978, 60, and 2 hands respectively, showing decreases of 8,693, increases of 55, and decreases of 8. The open - interest positions were 6543, 46, and 7, with changes of - 1364, 6, and 0 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 14936 yuan/ton, up 45; Cot A was 74.95 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M was 73.91; the price of polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, down 50. For cotton yarn, CY IndexC32S was 20770 yuan/ton, up 30; FCY IndexC33S was 20988 yuan/ton, down 11; the price of Indian S - 6 was 55800; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, up 100; the price of viscose yarn R30S was 17300 yuan/ton, up 50 [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 40 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (down 30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 95 (up 30). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 5 (down 105), the 5 - 9 spread was - 55 (up 90), and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (up 15). In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 6280 (down 85), CY05 - CF05 was 6315 (up 20), and CY09 - CF09 was 6235 (down 100). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1899 (up 14), the sliding - duty internal - external cotton spread was 933 (up 12), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 218 (up 41) [2]. 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton was 1.7234 million tons, with an inspection progress of 57.63%, a 12% year - on - year decrease; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 35,100 tons, with an inspection progress of 42.4%, a 34% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the quarterly deliverable ratio increased month - on - month. The U.S. cotton harvest is in the late stage, and the listing inspection peak season has seen a narrowing of the year - on - year lag in the listing progress, with the overall inspection of Pima cotton being much slower. The quarterly deliverable ratio continues to rise. In the week of October 16, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 39,800 tons, a 11% weekly increase and a 5% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks; the weekly signing volume of 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton was 6,100 tons; the weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 36,200 tons, a 15% weekly increase and a 1% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [4]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling - hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relative off - season. Overall, the large - scale listing of new cotton on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but a possible smaller - than - expected increase; on the demand side, recent orders have been average, but previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will likely be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, the recommendation is to wait and see [8][9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Zhengzhou cotton continues to fluctuate strongly. Although there is some resilience in recent demand, the overall atmosphere is weakening. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, and some large manufacturers have carried out price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton has gradually weakened the cash flow of spinning enterprises, and combined with year - end bank repayment, supplier settlement, and worker wage payment, enterprises are under great pressure. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand. The rigid demand for all - cotton clothing grey fabric is weak, and both the volume and price are expected to decline further. The grey fabric market has low popularity and insufficient confidence, mainly due to the decline in demand leading to insufficient factory orders. The price center has shifted downwards, and actual orders can be negotiated. The situation of dyeing factories varies, with better - performing ones having orders that can last about half a month, and those with less business being able to deliver goods in 7 days [10]. 3. Options - **Option Data**: On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 183.00, with a price increase of 71.0%, an implied volatility (IV) of 6.7%, a Delta of 0.7924, a Gamma of 0.0012, a Vega of 8.9763, a Theta of - 2.5396, a theoretical leverage of 74.2350, and an actual leverage of 58.8238. For the CF601P13000.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, with a price decrease of 75.9%, an IV of 11.4%, a Delta of - 0.0470, a Gamma of 0.0000, a Vega of 3.0820, a Theta of - 1.2967, a theoretical leverage of 1,940.7143, and an actual leverage of 91.2136. For the CF601P12400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, with a price decrease of 83.3%, an IV of 17.3%, a Delta of - 0.0106, a Gamma of 0.0001, a Vega of 0.8840, a Theta of - 0.5394, a theoretical leverage of 6,792.5000, and an actual leverage of 72.0005. The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The recommendation for options is to wait and see [13][14]. 4. Related Attachments - The text provides multiple figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [16][19][23][24].

Report Title - Full Variety Spread Daily Report [4] Report Date - December 1, 2025 [3] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF603) had a 1.63% change, with a spot price of 5478 and a futures price of 5770, and a historical quantile of 54.80% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601) had a spot price of 5612 [1] - HRB400 20mm in Shanghai increased by 4.50%, with a spot price of 3250 and a futures price of 3290 [1] - Rebar (RB2601) decreased by 12 points [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601) decreased by 0.36%, with a spot price of 3302 and a futures price of 3290 [1] - Iron Ore (I2601) increased by 7.22%, with a spot price of 851 and a futures price of 794, and a historical quantile of 46.20% [1] - Coke (J2601) had a significant increase of 76.81% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601) increased by 11.53%, with a spot price of 1190 and a futures price of 1067, and a historical quantile of 58.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2601) had a spot price of 87430 and a futures price of 87400, with a basis of - 30 and a historical quantile of 41.25% [1] - Aluminum (AL2601) increased by 10.20%, with a spot price of 21450 and a futures price of 21610 [1] - Alumina (AO2601) had a spot price of 2831 and a futures price of 2707, with a basis of 124 and a historical quantile of 61.67% [1] - Zinc (ZN2601) decreased by 1.65%, with a spot price of 22425 and a futures price of 22300 [1] - Tin (SN2601) decreased by 5040, with a spot price of 305040 and a futures price of 300000 [1] - Nickel (NI2601) increased by 0.40%, with a spot price of 117550 and a futures price of 117080 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2601) had a historical quantile of 88.41% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2605) decreased by 2670, with a spot price of 96420 and a futures price of 93750 [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2601) increased by 4.60%, with a spot price of 9130 [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2602) decreased by 0.68%, with a spot price of 953.9 and a futures price of 947.4, and a historical quantile of 0.30% [1] - Silver (AG2602) decreased by 58.0, with a spot price of 12727.0 and a futures price of 12669.0, and a historical quantile of 3.70% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal (M2601) decreased by 1.45%, with a spot price of 3044.0 and a futures price of 3000, and a historical quantile of 32.00% [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, with a spot price of 8430 and a futures price of 8244.0, and a historical quantile of 38.00% [1] - Palm Oil (P2601) decreased by 0.88%, with a spot price of 8626.0 and a futures price of 8520, and a historical quantile of 8.70% [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM601) increased by 4.40%, with a spot price of 2560 and a futures price of 2452.0, and a historical quantile of 67.40% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (OI601) increased by 3.21%, with a spot price of 10070 and a futures price of 9757.0, and a historical quantile of 82.60% [1] - Corn (C2601) increased by 1.33%, with a spot price of 2290 and a futures price of 2244.0, and a historical quantile of 64.90% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2601) increased by 1.33%, with a spot price of 2600 and a futures price of 2566.0, and a historical quantile of 18.40% [1] - Live Hogs (LH2601) decreased by 1.00%, with a spot price of 11350 and a futures price of 11465.0, and a historical quantile of 40.90% [1] - Eggs (JD2601) decreased by 12.24%, with a spot price of 2890 and a futures price of 3293.0, and a historical quantile of 12.20% [1] - Cotton (CF601) increased by 3.98%, with a spot price of 14723 and a futures price of 13725.0, and a historical quantile of 56.70% [1] - Sugar (SR601) decreased by 4.76%, with a spot price of 5615 and a futures price of 5400.0, and a historical quantile of 36.60% [1] - Apples (AP601) decreased by 3.60%, with a spot price of 9025.0 and a futures price of 8700, and a historical quantile of 74.80% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX601) decreased by 0.12%, with a spot price of 6822.0 and a futures price of 6830.0, and a historical quantile of 25.10% [1] - PTA (TA601) decreased by 1.6%, with a spot price of 4700.0 and a futures price of 4650.0, and a historical quantile of 37.20% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601) increased by 0.13%, with a spot price of 3890.0 and a futures price of 3885.0, and a historical quantile of 61.20% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602) increased by 0.72%, with a spot price of 6295.0 and a futures price of 6250.0, and a historical quantile of 54.20% [1] - Styrene (EB2601) increased by 1.05%, with a spot price of 6566.0 and a futures price of 6635.0, and a historical quantile of 44.40% [1] - Methanol (MA601) decreased by 1.7%, with a spot price of 2110.0 and a futures price of 2135.0, and a historical quantile of 23.00% [1] - Urea (UR601) decreased by 0.42%, with a spot price of 1670.0 and a futures price of 1677.0, and a historical quantile of 13.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2601) increased by 0.31%, with a spot price of 6810.0 and a futures price of 6789.0, and a historical quantile of 28.80% [1] - PP (PP2601) increased by 0.64%, with a spot price of 6409.0 and a futures price of 6450.0, and a historical quantile of 37.40% [1] - PVC (V2601) decreased by 1.74%, with a spot price of 4549.0 and a futures price of 4470.0, and a historical quantile of 63.20% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH601) increased by 5.38%, with a spot price of 2344.0 and a futures price of 2224.0, and a historical quantile of 66.40% [1] - LPG (PG2601) decreased by 0.32%, with a spot price of 4412.0 and a futures price of 4398.0, and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Asphalt (BU2601) increased by 0.47%, with a spot price of 3010.0 and a futures price of 2996.0, and a historical quantile of 56.00% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2601) decreased by 0.14%, with a spot price of 10415.0 and a futures price of 10400.0, and a historical quantile of 26.90% [1] - Glass (FG601) decreased by 5.30%, with a spot price of 1053.0 and a futures price of 1000.0, and a historical quantile of 56.30% [1] - Soda Ash (SA601) decreased by 2.17%, with a spot price of 1152.0 and a futures price of 1177.0, and a historical quantile of 33.19% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601) decreased by 2.73%, with a spot price of 15410.0 and a futures price of 15000.0, and a historical quantile of 73.06% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFE decreased by 0.46%, with a spot price of 4505.8 and a futures price of 4526.7, and a historical quantile of 22.60% [1] - IH2512.CFE decreased by 0.22%, with a spot price of 2963.2 and a futures price of 2969.6, and a historical quantile of 30.40% [1] - IC2512.CFE decreased by 0.82%, with a spot price of 6974.2 and a futures price of 7031.6, and a historical quantile of 15.00% [1] - IM2512.CFE decreased by 1.01%, with a spot price of 7260.8 and a futures price of 7334.2, and a historical quantile of 72.00% [1] - 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2603) increased by 0.35%, with a spot price of 129.32 and a futures price of 114.46, and a historical quantile of 60.30% [1] - 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2603) decreased by 0.04%, with a spot price of 105.74 and a futures price of 99.48, and a historical quantile of 22.20% [1] - 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2603) decreased by 0.07%, with a spot price of 107.92 and a futures price of 100.31, and a historical quantile of 25.70% [1] - 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2603) increased by 0.35%, with a spot price of 129.32 and a futures price of 114.46, and a historical quantile of 60.30% [1]

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 Z0017173 期货方面：本周螺纹 01 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持小幅反弹。截止周 五，螺纹 01 合约收于 3110 元/吨，环比上周上涨 53 元，周涨 幅 1.73%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： F3073406 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格继续小幅上调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 23 元至 3291 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3250 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上调 40 元至 3290 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格维持不变 3220 元/吨；天 津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3210 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格上调 90 元至 3490 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.09%，环比减少 1.10%， 同比减少 0.53%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 87.98%，环比减少 0.60%， 同比增加 0.18%；全国 90 家电炉钢厂平均开工率 69.13%，与上 周持平，同比上升 0.79%；电炉平均产能利用率 52.73% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views No clear core views are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide various data on different financial products such as stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Difference Data**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures price difference was -20.86, with a change of 3.45 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles were 44.60% and 22.60% respectively. The IC spot - futures price difference was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures price difference was 73.41. There were also detailed data on cross - period price differences and cross - variety ratios [1]. Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: On November 28, 2025, the IRR of TS was 1.5082, with a change of -0.0219 from the previous day, and the percentile since listing was 22.10%. The TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also data on cross - period price differences and cross - variety price differences [2]. Precious Metals - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, the domestic AU2602 contract closed at 953.92 yuan/gram, up 0.71% from the previous day; the AG2602 contract closed at 12727 yuan/kilogram, up 1.61%. The foreign COMEX gold and silver futures also had significant price increases. There were also data on spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions [3]. Container Shipping - **Index and Price Changes**: On November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.75% from November 17; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.54%. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index also had corresponding changes. There were also data on futures prices, basis, and fundamental data such as shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic indicators [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but considering the large floating storage, it is expected to return to a state of inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to take advantage of high prices to conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price differentials fluctuate, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance operations in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has recently decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance operations, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, the near - end export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the动力煤期货price remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2053 to 2100, and the CFR China price increased from 237 to 247 [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, and port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there is a large amount of floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the东北亚乙烯price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 showed fluctuations. For example, the华北LL price decreased from 6760 to 6680 and then increased to 6720 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the山东丙烯price changed from 5900 to 6000, and the东北亚丙烯price remained at 695 on some days. The prices of华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, and PP美湾 also showed fluctuations. For example, the华东PP price decreased from 6285 to 6205 and then increased to 6270 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the西北电石price increased from 2450 to 2500, and the山东烧碱price remained at 777 on some days. The prices of电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价, and出口利润 also showed changes. For example, the电石 - based PVC price in East China increased from 4530 to 4560 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].