章俊（中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长） 中国银河证券博士后研究员李沁蔓、刘小逸、田冀霖 当前，从全球发展态势来看，新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展，科技创新和高技术领域成为各主要 经济体展开激烈角逐的主阵地，地缘政治、经贸、科技等领域交错的国际竞争博弈空前复杂。从我国发 展阶段来看，高质量发展阶段面临发展方式转变、新旧动能转换、经济结构调整等现实发展需要。纵使 面对多重压力，新一轮科技革命和产业变革也给全球带来新的发展契机。 发展新质生产力无疑是世界各国的共同诉求。技术的多点爆发正不断创造机遇，新质生产力正深刻改变 生产和生活方式以及全球产业链格局。我们可以将全球产业链的变化从空间、供需、价值三个维度进行 解构，来分析新质生产力是如何塑造当下的全球产业链格局变迁的。 空间维度：全球产业链分工不断细化 空间维度反映的是宏观层面产业链网络体系的地理分布和经济体之间的分工。眼下，全球创新格局的多 极化发展推动全球产业链分工不断细化。新兴市场正加快培育技术优势，抢先布局未来产业，全球产业 链迁移呈现出双向、网络化的结构趋势。 美、日、欧等传统创新高地在半导体制造等尖端领域仍然占据一定主导地位。2022年德国、美 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" has been officially released, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication by Huabao Securities [1][2] - The report emphasizes the industry's transition towards service-oriented wealth and asset management, a concept that gained traction in the previous year and has seen significant progress in 2024 [2] - The theme of this year's report, "Ecological Leap," reflects the need for collaborative efforts across the industry to reconstruct and upgrade the wealth ecosystem, indicating a profound transformation [2][3] Section Summaries Part One - Insights into the Wealth Ecosystem in 2024 - The report discusses the potential decline in yields for deposit-replacement products and the challenges in getting clients to accept net value fixed-income products [3] - It explores insights from the "Fat Donglai" case for wealth management institutions and the hidden secrets behind investor choices between funds and wealth management [3] - The impact of the trend towards tool-based and index-based investments on the competitive landscape of financial products is analyzed [3] Part Two - Review and Outlook of Various Financial Products Across Markets - The report includes a comprehensive review of bank wealth management over the past 20 years, highlighting the return to net value [4] - It provides an overview of the public fund market, focusing on the ecological landscape and the challenges of low-profit margins [4] - The ETF market is examined, showcasing its rapid growth and the innovative policies supporting its expansion [4] Part Three - Ecological Leap: Shaping a New Landscape for Wealth and Asset Management - The report compares financial products across markets, emphasizing the cognitive load due to product homogeneity and the depiction of risk-return profiles for fully integrated products [6] - It discusses the significance of fund strategy indices in making fund investments more scientific and the lessons learned from mature overseas experiences [6] - The report highlights the transformative impact of large models on wealth management services and the evolution of practitioners within the ecosystem [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global rare earth supply chain and the geopolitical implications following China's export controls on certain rare earth elements, which have significant impacts on various industries worldwide, particularly in the automotive and military sectors [2][4][9]. Group 1: Impact of Export Controls - Following China's export controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, companies like Suzuki in Japan have been forced to halt production due to shortages [3]. - Major automotive groups in India, such as Tata and Mahindra, are urging the Indian government to negotiate with China for the lifting of rare earth export restrictions to avoid halting the entire automotive industry [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has made multiple attempts to persuade China to ease export controls, which have severely affected the U.S. military supply chain, leading to significant price increases in rare earth materials in international markets [4]. Group 2: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds over one-third of the world's rare earth reserves and has historically contributed more than 80% of global extraction, maintaining a dominant position in the separation and purification processes, controlling over 90% of global capacity [7]. - Despite other countries attempting to restart rare earth mining, the global supply structure remains largely unchanged, with China's processing capabilities providing a competitive edge [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Profitability - The strategic value of rare earths is being redefined, with a projected global supply-demand gap expected to widen to 300,000 tons, creating long-term value support for upstream resource companies [10]. - The profit distribution within the rare earth industry is shifting, with the separation and smelting segments seeing a 3-5 percentage point increase in gross margins, while the magnetic material manufacturing segment maintains over 30% gross margins due to high-end product premiums [11][14]. Group 4: Emerging Demand and Future Trends - The demand for rare earths is primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, with an expected annual growth rate of 5.4% due to increasing penetration of electric vehicles [15]. - New markets, such as humanoid robots, are anticipated to add significant demand, with projections of 2,000 to 4,000 tons of high-end rare earths needed by 2030 [15]. - The shift towards permanent magnet direct-drive wind turbines, driven by China's carbon neutrality goals, is expected to increase rare earth usage by approximately 40% compared to traditional technologies [15]. Group 5: ETF Performance and Market Valuation - The article highlights the performance of rare earth ETFs, noting a significant decline of 55% from September 2021 to February 2024, followed by a recovery of approximately 47.7% since September 2024 [18][21]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the rare earth industry index is at 30 times, with a historical low of 21.6 times, indicating that the sector may still be undervalued [31]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if the performance of rare earth companies continues to improve and consolidation occurs among major players like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, the industry may warrant a more favorable outlook [34].

在这场讨论中，一些用户描述了被门夹伤的痛苦经历：金属门框合拢瞬间带来的剧痛、迅速肿胀的指节，甚至有人晒 出了指甲血肿甚至手指骨折的照片。一位设计师在回答中详细记录了自己购买智能门锁后遭遇的夹手事故：当无名指 被门缝咬住时，有触电般的麻痹感。 与此同时，社交媒体上传播的"黄瓜测试"视频直观暴露了现阶段门锁产品的设计缺陷——传统门锁关闭时轻松夹断黄 瓜的画面，被网友称为"震撼的安全教育"。 有业内人士将此现象指向锁体结构缺陷。"大部分锁体的锁芯孔中心到门边的距离仅60mm，叠加现代流行的推拉式把 手设计后，锁身与门框间的预留空间通常不足5mm，用户开关门时手指几乎紧贴门框边缘。物理空间的局促使得动作 稍有偏差，手指便会被快速闭合的门缝咬住。" 具体来看，这些锁体虽符合国家标准要求，但60毫米的距离不足以保障手指的安全操作空间。对于门夹手这一安全风 险，多数品牌既未有效预防，也缺乏事后补救措施。 主流判断认为，当千万家庭每日高频使用的智能门锁存在设计缺陷时，仅靠用户小心操作并非解决之道。只有从设计 源头重构安全逻辑，才能真正实现"想怎么开就怎么开"的自由操作。"真正安全的防盗门，既要防得住外部的侵入，更 要守得住用 ...

证券研究报告 从对美脱锚到中国重估 ——2025 下半年资产配置展望 华泰研究 | 中期策略 | | --- | | 2025 年 6 月 09 日│中国内地 | 核心观点 今年是"非典型"宏观大年，核心变量是特朗普 2.0 对全球贸易、金融、地 缘等秩序的冲击，事件驱动明显。新秩序的重构改变了大类资产的定价规律， 也颠覆了传统的配置框架。在市场对美国资产脱锚的同时，中国资产有望迎 来估值的重估。不确定环境下，建议采取"重赔率+重左侧+重交易"的应 对策略，并寻找区域与产业逻辑等结构性机会。美元趋势性走弱，非美资产 或有相对表现，欧洲资产胜率更高，港股等新兴市场赔率更优。AI 科技主 线有待现象级应用落地催化，各国大内需板块有望在财政扩张周期下受益， 而地缘局势不确定性加大，可尝试博弈军工、自主可控以及稀缺资源品。 市场环境：非典型的宏观大年 过去几年里，大类资产价格表现背后的深刻逻辑。2023 年，全球周期错位 +AI 科技革命+全球资金再配置是三条主线。2024 年，美国"例外论"+国 内物价偏弱+时代背景强化。2025 年上半年，全球秩序重构+美国例外论动 摇+反转交易频现。具体资产表现上，黄金>港股+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Huizheng Finance and Alibaba Cloud aims to enhance the integration of AI technologies in the securities advisory industry, focusing on technology upgrades, data security, compliance systems, and innovative AI investment advisory services [1][4]. Group 1: Partnership Details - The signing ceremony for the AI full-stack and all-scenario deep cooperation agreement took place in Hangzhou, marking a significant step following their initial collaboration in 2023 [1][3]. - Representatives from both companies, including Huizheng Finance's General Manager Zhou Rongsheng and Alibaba Cloud's Vice President Jie Hang, participated in the signing [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Alibaba Cloud has been investing heavily in research and development, recently launching the new generation open-source model "Qianwen 3," which has become the strongest open-source model globally [3]. - As of April, Alibaba Tongyi has open-sourced over 200 models with a global download count exceeding 300 million, and the number of derivative models from Qianwen has surpassed 100,000, making it the largest open-source model family worldwide [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The partnership will focus on AI capabilities for intelligent risk control and compliance management, enhancing business efficiency, and exploring new intelligent investment advisory products [4][6]. - The collaboration aims to create a new ecosystem for digital investment consulting services, emphasizing the importance of human-centric financial services alongside technological advancements [4][6]. - The goal is to drive the intelligent upgrade of the securities investment consulting industry through a financial-grade cloud-native architecture and deep application of AI [6].

Core Viewpoint - Dongxing Fund has appointed Sun Jiqing as the new manager of the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund, following the departure of the previous manager, Kang Kai, due to personal reasons. This change has drawn attention to the fund's long-term underperformance since its inception in 2015, with a cumulative loss of 21% and a current scale of less than 2 million yuan, categorizing it as a "mini fund" [1][9]. Group 1 - Sun Jiqing's return marks his second tenure as the fund manager after a one-year hiatus, raising questions about the fund's long-term competitiveness despite a recent net value increase of 3.78% in the first quarter of 2025 [1][3]. - The fund has faced significant challenges in recent years, with a return of -28.1% in 2022 and -17% in 2023, trailing its performance benchmark by 12.7 percentage points in 2024 [3]. - Dongxing Fund has recently received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for Huijin Company to become its actual controller, indicating a significant shift in the fund's governance structure [1][9]. Group 2 - Sun Jiqing has a background in research and investment management, having started his career in 2007 and previously managed several funds before his hiatus from equity product management [3]. - The fund's investment strategy has historically focused on stocks benefiting from comprehensive reform, but it has struggled to adapt to changing market styles, leading to poor performance [3]. - Dongxing Fund is currently facing a reduction in management scale, with a total of 358.3 billion yuan as of the first quarter of 2025, down nearly 21% from the previous quarter [9][11].

1） 全球地缘再重估和国际货币秩序重构带来的机遇与挑战。 年初特朗普上任以来外部不确定性显著提升，对等关税等一系列举措影响下，全球投资者开 始新一轮"地缘再重估"。叠加美国自身财政宽松导致债务问题突出，美元和美债的安全资产属性边际下降，国际货币秩序面临重构。这个过程对于我国而 言既是挑战也是机遇，外部资金能否回流以及中国资产重估能否延续，不仅取决于外部环境的变化，也取决于我国自身发展前景及应对。 2） 我国经济内生动能稳步复苏仍是关键。 年初我国经济增长取得良好开局，体现一揽子稳增长政策效果，但内生动能复苏仍面临较多挑战。外需方面， 我国制造业韧性为经济增长的重要贡献点，但考虑到关税税率的不确定性，未来"抢出口"效应减弱后外部压力或有所提升。内部方面，地产链目前量价均 有压力，仍需"止跌回稳"；物价上，供给侧产能出清已取得一定成效，但通胀预期偏弱仍是下半年的主要矛盾之一。从政策效果而言，我们认为财政加快 现有资金使用并在下半年推出增量政策，可能仍是改善基本面问题的关键。基准情形下，结合2024年偏低的基数，我们测算A股/非金融2025年盈利同比 4%/8%左右，增速有望企稳回升，实现产能出清和景气回升行业数量 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the impact of the recent US-China tariff agreement, where the US cancels 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, while China suspends additional tariffs for 90 days, leading to significant shifts in trade dynamics between the two countries [1][3][12] - Following the agreement, there was a surge in cargo traffic from US ports to China, but traditional US exports like energy and agricultural products faced a decline in demand from China [3][6] - The US soybean exports to China dropped by 32% in Q1 2025, while Brazil's soybean exports reached 60 million tons, indicating a shift in China's sourcing preferences towards South America [6][10] Group 2 - In the energy sector, US propane shipments were not approved for entry into China, redirecting to Southeast Asia, while China signed long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas with Qatar and Canada [8][22] - In manufacturing, China has replaced US scrap steel imports with nickel pig iron from Indonesia, and cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China surged by 47% [10][15] - China's chip self-sufficiency has increased to 35%, indicating a significant reduction in reliance on US semiconductor imports despite ongoing US restrictions [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights a broader trend of China reducing imports from the US due to various factors, including a shift towards clean energy and a growing domestic market for electric vehicles, which has decreased the demand for US energy imports [15][17] - The trust crisis stemming from US policy fluctuations has led Chinese companies to seek stable and reliable supply sources outside the US [19][20] - The restructuring of supply chains and the establishment of a new global trade order based on the renminbi is underway, as China diversifies its energy and commodity sources [22][24] Group 4 - The article discusses the current state of the US economy, noting a decline in support for the Trump administration and a general perception of poor economic performance among Americans [26][28] - Economic uncertainty in the US has led to increased inflation and rising prices for consumers, with estimates suggesting an annual loss of $1,200 per household due to higher import tariffs [30][31] - The article concludes that the temporary resolution of the US-China trade conflict may provide short-term relief, but without a change in US policy, a trend towards economic recession is likely [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's marks the end of the AAA era, highlighting structural issues in U.S. debt sustainability and raising concerns about the country's fiscal outlook [1][3][10] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," the first loss of the highest rating since 1919, indicating a significant shift in the perception of U.S. fiscal health [3][4] - The downgrade is attributed to the rising total debt, structural expansion of fiscal deficits, and increased interest payments amid a higher interest rate environment [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, there was a poor subscription for the 20-year Treasury bond auction, indicating rising financing pressures and a shift in market sentiment [1][4] - As of May 27, the 20-year Treasury yield fluctuated around 5%, while the 10-year yield remained at approximately 4.5%, reflecting heightened market concerns [1] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The U.S. debt sustainability is increasingly reliant on short-term debt refinancing, which exposes the financial system to significant vulnerabilities amid policy uncertainty and market volatility [4][5] - The current fiscal structure shows a growing dependency on short-term debt, which, despite its lower proportion, poses a critical risk due to its frequent issuance and reliance on market confidence [4][5] Group 4: Global Implications - The downgrade signals a potential reassessment of the risk-return profile of U.S. dollar assets by long-term investors, leading to increased allocations towards non-U.S. currencies and physical safe-haven assets [2][10] - The shift in the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a "risk-free asset" could trigger a broader re-evaluation of asset pricing and liquidity expectations in global capital markets [10][11]