Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is high, with coal and coke rebounding from low levels. Steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices have all shown certain trends, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures market of steel was generally strong yesterday. The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The spot market had average to good transactions, mainly in futures-spot trading, while rigid demand purchases were weak, and prices rose following the futures market. The national building materials trading volume was 72,915 [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the off-season, the overall contradiction in the steel market is limited, and production remains rigid. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the digestion speed of building materials in the market slows down, and the purchasing sentiment is weak, which significantly suppresses the demand for rebar. The demand for hot-rolled coils on the plate side is relatively stable, but the purchasing sentiment of downstream manufacturers is also cautious, and the actual driving effect on the demand for hot-rolled coils is limited. On the cost side, the warming sentiment of coal and coke has injected positive sentiment into the steel market, making the commodity sentiment warm up [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore was strong yesterday. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were strong. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The current spot market transactions were cold. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 865,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.33 million tons (9 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 12.71% (including 820,000 tons of mine sales). The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills this week was 2.2798 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons. The total inventory of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 170.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [2]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In terms of supply, high valuations stimulate shipments, and the supply release is relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, the profitability of steel mills has recovered in the short term, but the average daily hot metal output has decreased slightly this week. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has continued to hit new highs this week, but the liquidity of some port supplies has been locked, and the steel mills' inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to intensify. With high global shipments at high valuations and the locking of the liquidity of some port supplies, the actual fundamentals of iron ore are better than the statistical data. High ore prices stimulate supply release. If the factors locking the liquidity are removed later, the port supplies will form a supply shock, so there is uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. In the short term, steel mills are in the second half of the winter storage replenishment period, and it is expected that the support for raw material prices will gradually weaken, and the iron ore price will maintain a volatile operation. Later, attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations and the replenishment situation of steel mills [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to short on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. For coke, steel mills fully implemented the first - round price increase, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Recently, some coking plants in the northern region have been affected by environmental protection again, and their production has been restricted. For coking coal, the prices in the main production areas are strong. For imported Mongolian coal, the quotation of Mongolian coal is weakly stable, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is mostly around 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coke, the first - round price increase by steel mills has been implemented. Affected by environmental protection, the supply has tightened, and the pre - holiday replenishment is approaching the end. Generally speaking, the fundamentals of coke are relatively balanced. For coking coal, the production of clean coal has increased and the inventory has decreased, and the clean coal inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a marginal weakening of the short - term supply of coal. Coupled with the rebound of thermal coal prices, it provides support for coking coal prices. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability and replenishment actions of steel mills, and the market will continue to be volatile in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, the number of coal mines that have stopped production after completing their monthly tasks in the main production areas has increased, and the supply has continued to shrink. The coal prices in the "Three Western" regions have generally shown an upward trend. The increase in the external purchase price of large groups has directly boosted the market sentiment. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the replenishment demand of some terminals and platforms has been released, the number of coal - pulling trucks at some coal mines has increased, and the prices have risen slightly. Mine operators are mostly concerned about the future port trends and supply - demand changes. At the port, affected by the shrinkage of supply at the origin, the port shipping has been in a reverse situation. In addition, the current daily consumption has not decreased, and the port quotations have been firm. However, the downstream inquiries are few, and there is obvious resistance to high - priced coal, so the actual port transactions are few. Some people believe that the current upstream shipping is less, and it is difficult to replenish the stock after shipment. Coupled with the high daily consumption of power plants, they are continuously optimistic. However, it should be noted that the downstream demand has not been substantially improved, so some traders believe that it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic at present and should remain cautious. In the import market, the imported coal market has been affected by domestic factors and extreme weather in Indonesia, resulting in less arrival of resources and firm quotations [6]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, some coal mines have stopped production after completing their monthly tasks, and the price has continued to rise under the shrinkage of supply. Moreover, the recent cold wave has led to a surge in downstream daily consumption, and it is expected that the coal price will stabilize this week. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply pattern and the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

2026 年 1 月 30 日 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4436 +61 | （+1.39%） 4419 | +4（+0.09%） | | | | | | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2802 | +25（+0.90%） 2783 | -15（-0.54%） | | | | | | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1072 | -2.75（-0.26%） | | | | | | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 295.9 | -1.7（-0.57%） | n a | | | | | | | | ...

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260130 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位宽幅震荡 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口暂难放量，油价支撑偏强 | 8 | | PP：油价上行，成本支撑 | 9 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260130 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：短期将继续强势，高波动态势延续 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：持续上行，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，地缘再度发酵 | 25 | | 短纤：高位震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 29, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.30% and 0.57% respectively. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends on January 29, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.30%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51, down 0.57%. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4753.87, up 35.88 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong on January 29, closing at 1725.5, up 53.5. Supply is stable, and after the fourth round of price cuts, coking plants are in continuous loss. Steel mills' profitability is improving, and coal price increases have led coking plants to propose the first - round price increase, which steel mills are expected to accept by the end of the month. The average daily pig iron output last week was 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons month - on - month. Downstream steel mills have weak sentiment for winter storage, with only 1 - 2 days of inventory space left [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index fluctuated widely on January 29, closing at 1172.8 yuan, up 43.6. The domestic coal mine production is at a high level at the end of January, Mongolian coal customs clearance has slightly decreased, and the import profit of seaborne coal is inverted. The total supply is relatively abundant. The first - stage winter storage of downstream enterprises has basically ended, coal mines have full orders, and the inventory transfer is smooth. The speculation sentiment has declined. The first - round price increase of coke has been postponed until the end of the month [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to the increased pre - holiday stocking demand of enterprises, the spot price was raised today. The rise in crude oil prices boosted short - covering, driving the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to rise on Thursday. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [4] Rubber - Rubber trees in northern Thailand have started to shed leaves, indicating the approaching end of the tapping season. Rubber production in Vietnam and Cote d'Ivoire has also begun to decline. The low - production period for rubber trees is usually from February to May. Market concerns about supply reduction in major producing countries have emerged. Affected by the sharp increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the rise in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise at night. In December 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 963,319 units, and the annual sales in 2025 increased slightly by 0.8% to about 10.6 million units, still far below the pre - pandemic level [4][5] Palm Oil - On January 29, palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9362, up 0.99% from the previous trading day. Although there is a lack of driving factors in the news, the approaching Indian New Year consumption season and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the reduction of export tariffs, have strengthened the inventory - reduction logic [5] Soybean Meal - International market: On January 29, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1072 cents per bushel, down 0.26%. The weak US dollar has enhanced the export competitiveness of US soybeans, and concerns about the Argentine weather have supported the market. However, the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increasing harvesting pressure have limited the rise of US soybeans. Brazilian soybeans are in the early harvesting stage, and the expected output is estimated to reach 181 million tons. As of last Thursday, the harvesting completion rate was 4.9%, higher than 3.9% in the same period last year [5] - Domestic market: On January 29, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2783 yuan per ton, up 0.72%. Pre - holiday stocking demand has started, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased continuously, with the price remaining in a narrow - range shock. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 41,200 tons. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will remain loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward - driving force [5] Live Pigs - On January 29, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11165 yuan per ton, down 0.93%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased. The price - support sentiment in the market has weakened, and some production capacity originally scheduled for February may be slaughtered ahead of schedule. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has started, but the overall demand increase is general. In the medium - term, the supply pressure remains large [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2603 contract soared and broke through the historical high, and the London copper also set a record. Driven by the resonance of macro - factors, supply - demand relationships, and capital, the short - term market sentiment is hot, but downstream buyers are more cautious. The closing price was about 109,110 yuan per ton, with a maximum of 110,970 yuan per ton and a minimum of 102,260 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 453,000 lots, and the open interest was 243,000 lots. The reasons for the rise include supply contraction (mine disturbances in Chile and Indonesia, low TC, smelting production cuts, high invoice points for recycled copper, and restricted transactions), strong demand (driven by energy transformation, AI computing power, and power grid investment, and supported by the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and pre - holiday restocking), macro - economic support (increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weak US dollar), and inventory structure issues (low LME deliverable inventory and a sharp increase in COMEX inventory) [5] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,900 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 34 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchase as they use [5] Iron Ore - On January 29, the main iron ore 2605 contract rose by 1.78%, closing at 798.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, the domestic arrival volume has continued to decline, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills still have pre - holiday restocking demand, and the pig iron output has slightly increased. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 29, the main asphalt 2603 contract rose by 3.39%, closing at 3478 yuan. The refinery production plan for February has decreased slightly, the supply remains at a low level. Affected by the off - season, the shipment volume has decreased month - on - month, and the terminal market procurement is weak. However, the relatively strong crude oil price at the cost end has supported the asphalt price, which shows a volatile trend in the short term [6] Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 775 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 790.5, and a closing price of 785, with an increase of 119 lots in open interest. On January 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the impact of macro - economic expectations and market sentiment on prices [6] Steel - On January 29, rb2605 closed at 3157 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan per ton. Due to the intensifying geopolitical tensions, international futures prices of crude oil and metals have risen, driving up domestic commodity futures prices. The first - round price increase of coke will be implemented this Friday, which will continue to support steel prices. However, the restocking of steel mills' raw materials is coming to an end, the pre - holiday steel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand pressure has slightly increased, so the steel price is not likely to rise continuously. In the short term, the steel price may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] Alumina - On January 29, ao2605 closed at 2816 yuan per ton. On the raw material side, the shipment volume of new mines in Guinea has increased, putting pressure on the price of imported ores. On the cost side, the decline in caustic soda prices has weakened the cost support for alumina. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum plants mainly execute long - term contracts and replenish inventory as needed. In the spot market, holders are eager to sell, and there is a phenomenon of chasing up and restocking in the downstream market. The inquiry atmosphere was strong in the morning, but in the afternoon, although the futures price continued to rise and holders raised the price, the market's rigid - demand restocking was basically saturated, and the trading atmosphere cooled down [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 29, al2603 closed at 25,590 yuan per ton. Aluminum plants are operating stably, the production capacity is running well, the aluminum - water ratio has declined slightly, the supply of aluminum ingots is abundant, and the social inventory has accumulated slightly, still remaining at a high level year - on - year. The demand pressure continues to increase, and downstream purchases have further shrunk, but the negative feedback transmission is insufficient. In different fields, there is some pressure in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial material sectors, and the demand for aluminum rods is weak. The processing fee remains weak, and some enterprises have stopped taking orders. The pre - holiday production has continued to decline. The market is paying close attention to geopolitical and metal - related dynamics and is in a wait - and - see mood [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. It presents the latest market trends, price movements, and fundamental data for each commodity, along with corresponding trading strategies and trend strength ratings [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - The price of iron ore futures (I2605) closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 1.98% from the previous day. The持仓 decreased by 9,221 hands to 555,392 hands. The price of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, while the price of some domestic iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed certain fluctuations [4]. - The trend strength is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - The price of rebar futures (RB2605) closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.12%, and the price of hot-rolled coil futures (HC2605) closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79%. The trading volume and open interest of both increased. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or remained unchanged [7]. - The trend strength of both rebar and hot-rolled coils is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures increased. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased, while the spot price of silicomanganese remained unchanged. The basis, spreads, and other indicators showed certain fluctuations [11]. - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coking coal futures (JM2605) closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan or 2.7%, and the price of coke futures (J2605) closed at 1,723 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 2.3%. The trading volume of coking coal increased, while the open interest decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The trend strength of both coke and coking coal is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of change. The 1 - month long - term contract price decreased. The port market was stable with a slightly upward trend, and the pit - mouth price also showed a strong trend [21][22]. - The report suggests that the supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising. Logs - The prices of log futures contracts showed an upward trend, and the trading volume of some contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties showed little change or a slight increase [23]. - The trend strength of logs is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差期现机会 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260130 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节后淡季预期未变 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾释放 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 2026年01月30日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 30 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,362 | 涨跌幅 0.99% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,348 | 涨跌幅 -0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oil and Fat - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise to around 4,350 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may break through 9,400 yuan and reach 9,500 yuan. CBOT soybean oil futures may continue to rise, and domestic soybean oil futures may reach 8,500 yuan. Rapeseed oil may test 9,500 yuan [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure, but the decline is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a consolidation pattern. International sugar production is affected by factors such as reduced production in Brazil and slow progress in Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are expected to rebound from the low level [3]. Jujube - The current jujube sales are slower than last year. The commodity market sentiment has boosted the futures price, but it is still undervalued. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival sales and inventory [4]. Apple - The Spring Festival stocking is in full swing, and the inventory in main producing areas has decreased. The sales structure is differentiated. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory [5]. Corn - The corn market has support at the bottom and pressure at the top, and the futures price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release [8]. Pig - The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The futures and spot prices are both weak, and the market is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [11]. Meal - US soybeans have strong support at the bottom. The domestic spot market is loose, but the downside space of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited. The pre - holiday stocking sentiment may fade, and the futures price may decline [14]. Egg - The egg supply is normal, but the market digestion is slowing down. The futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [17]. Group 3: Summary by Category Oil and Fat - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 0.57% to 8,790 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 rose by 0.67% to 8,382 yuan. The basis decreased by 20 yuan [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong rose by 1.19% to 9,370 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 rose by 0.99% to 9,362 yuan. The basis increased by 18 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 1.07% to 10,386 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 rose by 1.24% to 9,446 yuan. The basis decreased by 6 yuan [1]. Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.20% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton decreased by 0.22% to 63.64 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.37% to 15,832 yuan [2]. - **Industry situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.5%. Import volume increased by 49.5%, and the export of textile products increased [2]. Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 1.35% to 5,257 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.74% to 14.72 cents/pound [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.75% to 5,340 yuan [3]. - **Industry situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, and sales decreased by 37.18%. The industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube - The futures price of jujube 2605 increased by 0.74% to 8,895 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt increased by 3,313 [4]. Apple - The futures price of apple 2605 increased by 1.15% to 9,642 yuan/ton. The national main - producing area inventory decreased by 4.21% to 654.05 million tons [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2603 increased by 0.31% to 2,281 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit increased by 2000% to 19 yuan [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 increased by 0.20% to 2,535 yuan/ton [8]. Pig - **Futures market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 21.01% to 1,485 yuan (base). The price of pig 2605 decreased by 0.47% to 11,640 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot market**: The price in Henan decreased by 500 yuan to 12,650 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry situation**: The sample slaughter volume decreased by 1.54%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.32% to 3,130 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.72% to 2,802 yuan [14]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.78% to 2,580 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 1.22% to 2,325 yuan [14]. - **Soybean**: The price of the first - grade soybean futures increased by 1.39% to 4,436 yuan, and the price of the second - grade soybean futures increased by 0.70% to 3,596 yuan [14]. Egg - The price of the egg 03 contract decreased by 0.89% to 3,021 yuan/500KG. The egg - feed ratio increased by 8.81% to 2.84, and the breeding profit increased by 129.87% to 3.19 yuan/feather [17].

每经AI快讯，1月30日，钯金期货日内涨2%，现报2060.00美元/盎司。 ...

编者按：延续2025年的上涨行情，进入2026年，金属价格继续走高。高企的价格，深刻影响着产业、消 费乃至经济。今日本版不谈宏观、不谈经济，而是聚焦在火爆行情下，读者看得见、摸得着的微观事 物，比如"投资金条""投资铜条"。期望以微观视角，为读者梳理金属市场脉络，让读者看清市场本质并 有所启发，助力读者在消费、投资时资产安全有收益。 金店利润大减、加工企业订单减少 "原料价格翻了好多倍，我们的订单量减少了大约40%。" "别看都是排队买黄金的，我们金店的利润却越来越少。" "现在全部都是买金条、银条，为了今天买明天赚，都是为了炒。" "小程序充值买黄金，我完全没意识到这是个私盘。" "现在黄金回收很火爆，很多没有资质的都在偷偷做。也有不少是因为黄金回收才了解到'杰我睿'，然 后才掉坑里的。" 开年以来，金银价格一路暴涨，贵金属市场看似一片火热，实则暗流涌动。期货日报记者走访市场发 现，从下游金店、中游加工企业到上游贸易商，火热的投资需求背后，有非法私盘伺机作乱，贵金属消 费与投资市场急需警惕风险。 "别看外面总有人排队买黄金，生意可比金价三四百一克的时候差太多了。"一位加盟金店的李女士直 言，当下消费者的购买 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have recently reached as high as $5,500 an ounce, but there are concerns about sustainability and potential corrections in the future [2][19] - Unusual activity in the options market for gold and silver has been observed, reminiscent of volatility seen during the financial crisis [5][11] - The influx of retail traders into commodity ETFs has created market conditions that may not be sustainable, leading to unjustifiable price levels [7][9] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and subsequent sanctions have prompted a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safer asset [14][16] - There is a perception that developed countries are offering lower interest rates on debt compared to the U.S., making gold and silver more attractive alternatives [15] - Historical patterns suggest that gold could see corrections of 30% to 50%, potentially bringing prices down to the range of $2,000 to $3,000 in the next couple of years [19] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have recently hit a four-month high at around $65 a barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran [20][21] - Despite the recent rally, the oil market has been in a bear phase for several years, with previous rallies often leading to new lows [21][22] - Historical trends indicate that if oil prices fall below $65, there could be a significant drop to levels between $15 and $20 a barrel [25] Group 4: Dollar Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the U.S. dollar, which has seen a 10% decline over the past year [27][28] - A critical level to watch in the dollar index is 96; if it holds above this level, it could change the narrative for other assets [30][31] - The dollar's performance in the coming weeks will be crucial for determining the direction of gold and silver prices, as a stronger dollar could lead to a reevaluation of current market positions [29][30]