1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be fluctuating upward, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing a bias towards strengthening [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Forecasted to have a fluctuating upward trend, including soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: Anticipated to be fluctuating strongly in the short - term [6]. - **Hogs**: Predicted to be fluctuating weakly, with a "weak present + strong future" pattern [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to maintain a bottom - fluctuating and high - elasticity trend [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Suggested to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: Forecasted to have a short - term range - bound fluctuation and a long - term upward trend [13]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly in the medium - to - long - term and range - bound between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. - **Pulp**: Anticipated to be fluctuating, with a divergence between futures and spot markets [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Forecasted to have a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible first - rising - then - falling trend [17]. - **Logs**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, macro - environment, and industry policies. It provides short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: The market is affected by factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic soybean imports. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating upward, with different trends for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Market expectations are that the supply - demand report will be bullish. With the US soybean harvest nearing completion and South American soybean sowing progressing smoothly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a fluctuating upward trend [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The short - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and prices are expected to be fluctuating strongly. However, there may be pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to new grain listings [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term supply is large, but long - term supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro - environment, rubber prices are rising. However, there may be downward pressure on prices without strong expectations or macro - driving forces [9][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is rebounding, but due to weak fundamentals and raw material pressure, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: After the digestion of previous bullish factors, short - term upward momentum is weak. With increased supply expectations, prices may have a short - term correction, but the cost of new cotton provides support [13]. - **Sugar**: In the international and domestic markets, there is downward pressure on sugar prices in the medium - to - long - term due to expected supply surpluses. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is driven by capital, while the spot market is affected by factors such as weak demand and supply pressure. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market may show a first - rising - then - falling trend, with price rebounds in November and potential declines in December and the first quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand weakness, and inventory trends. Prices are expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 3.2 Key Information and Data - **Sugar**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Sugar 01 contract closed at 5512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [1][13][15]. - **Protein Meals**: On November 12, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 238 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.06% from the previous day; US West soybeans at 225 cents/bushel, down 20 cents/bushel or 8.16%; South American soybeans at 220 cents/bushel, up 3 cents/bushel or 1.38%. On November 13, the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was - 70.4 yuan/ton, up 26.32 yuan/ton or - 27.21% from the previous day [4][5]. - **Corn**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [6]. - **Hogs**: On November 13, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 11.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the live hog futures (active contract) was 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: On November 13, the RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of STR20 in the free trade zone was 1860, up 10 [9]. - **Cotton**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract closed at 13490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The number of 24/25 annual warehouse receipts was 2220, down 15; the number of 25/26 annual warehouse receipts was 1960, up 311 [13]. - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Pacific pulp was 5465 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of Silver Star pulp was 5565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [15]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Macro - environment**: The end of the US government shutdown, the release of US economic data, the Fed's monetary policy, and OPEC's adjustment of global oil demand forecasts all have an impact on the agricultural product market [4][9]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply factors include factors such as planting area, yield, and import volume; demand factors include factors such as consumption and inventory. For example, the expected increase in sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil, and the new grain listing of corn all affect market supply; the consumption of soybean meal and the inventory of hogs affect market demand [1][4][5][6][7][13][15]. - **Industry policies**: Policies such as import policies for sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder, and the government's attention to hog production reduction all have an impact on the market [7][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 55 contracts rising and 25 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2] - The top gainers include silver futures (+5.47%), polysilicon (+3.69%), and apples (+3.32%), driven by supply and demand factors [5] - The largest capital inflows were seen in aluminum (+5.92 billion CNY), apples (+4.42 billion CNY), and gold (+4.03 billion CNY), suggesting strong interest from major funds [8] Key Events - India's palm oil imports in October fell to 602,381 tons, marking a significant decrease from September's 833,017 tons, with palm oil's share of total vegetable oil imports dropping below 50% for the first time [12] - The production and inventory of rebar steel have decreased for two consecutive weeks, with production at 2 million tons, down 4.1% from the previous week [13] Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - The total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises reached 63.247 million heavy boxes, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.61% [14] - Domestic soda ash inventory stood at 1.7073 million tons, with slight fluctuations in light and heavy soda ash stocks, indicating limited demand changes [14] Commodity Specific Insights - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.39% to 87,840 CNY/ton, driven by unexpected demand in energy storage and speculative trading [22] - SC crude oil futures fell by 3.66% to 449.5 CNY/barrel, influenced by ongoing OPEC+ production increases and seasonal inventory builds [25] - Silver futures reached a historical high, closing up 5.48% at 12,588 CNY/kg, supported by liquidity recovery following the end of the U.S. government shutdown [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, spreads, inventory levels, and corporate profitability in both the futures and spot markets [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,880, with an increase of 485 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 223,798, and the open interest was 420,066 [1] - The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,880, with an increase of 34 compared to T - 5 [1] - The LME注销仓单占比 was 6.19%, showing a decline of 1.71% compared to T - 5 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,821, with an increase of 49 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the SHFE alumina main contract was 267,963, and the open interest was 412,758 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,245, with an increase of 415 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 6,280, and the open interest was 15,573 [1] Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,569.02, with an increase of 392.14 compared to T - 5 [1] - The aluminum spot import profit and loss was -1,917.34, and the aluminum plate and coil export profit and loss was 3,562.37 [1] - The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 63,800 tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 544,100 tons [1] Alumina - The alumina CIF price at Lianyungang was 346 US dollars per ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars per ton [1] - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was -93 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -85, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,000 [1] - The total inventory of the three locations was 49,729 [1] Other - The price of imported bauxite from different sources remained stable, and the price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,630 [1] Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for red dates experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 9190.00 yuan, with a drop of 2.65% as of the report's publication [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The red date futures market is showing weak performance, with the main contract declining over 2% [2] - The lowest price recorded for the red date futures was 9190.00 yuan, indicating a significant downward trend [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - In the Aksu region, the mainstream transaction price ranges from 5.80 to 6.60 yuan per kilogram, with an average transaction price of 6.2 yuan per kilogram [2] - In the Aral region, the reference mainstream purchase price is between 5.80 and 7.00 yuan per kilogram, with an average of 6.4 yuan per kilogram [2] - The Kashgar region shows prices for certain designated gardens ranging from 6.80 to 7.80 yuan per kilogram, with an average of 7.35 yuan per kilogram [2] - The market in Hebei saw a price adjustment on November 12, with premium red dates priced at 9.96 yuan per kilogram, first-grade at 9.00 yuan, second-grade at 7.9 yuan, and third-grade at 6.5 yuan [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode due to weak feedback from the sales area affecting new date purchase prices [2] - The decline in prices may slow down as red date prices are at historically low levels, with expectations for a potential stabilization in the near term [3] - The increase in supply from the new season and high inventory levels are putting pressure on demand, but there is hope that upcoming peak season consumption may provide a boost [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex situation of "falling prices and increased volatility" [2] Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the commodity market is expected to face challenges in cost control, supply chain stability, and strategic transformation due to the breakdown of traditional supply-demand logic [2] - The year is characterized as a period of market reshaping and a critical juncture for companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness [2] Group 2: Event Details - A seminar hosted by LSEG in Hangzhou will explore how to find certainty amid uncertainty, aiming to help businesses seize more opportunities [2] - The event is scheduled for December 4, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00, with specific details to be provided in a confirmation letter [6] Group 3: Expert Contributions - The seminar will feature expert speakers, including Chen Xiaoyan, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Dadi Futures, and Fu Xiaoyan, Senior Director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, both of whom have extensive experience in the commodity market [8][9] - Kian Pang Tan, Head of Agriculture Research at LSEG, will provide insights into palm oil and sugar markets, leveraging over ten years of experience in agricultural research [10] Group 4: Data and Analysis Solutions - LSEG offers comprehensive data management solutions and trading execution capabilities to provide a competitive edge in commodity trading [12] - The company emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization, including fundamentals, supply-demand, and alternative data sources, to enhance trading decision-making [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and its futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. During the dry season, the cost in the southwest region increases, and the start - up rate drops significantly. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the valuation is relatively low, but currently lacks driving factors, so the market is mainly in a state of shock [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is greatly disturbed by policy - related news, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. Currently, the consumer side shows average performance, and policies are still being promoted. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management and continuously follow up on policy implementation. It is expected that the market will maintain wide - range fluctuations [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9165 yuan/ton and closed at 9195 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.43)% compared with the previous day's settlement. At the close, the position of the 2601 main contract was 262136 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on November 12, 2025 was 45936 lots, a change of - 143 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of consumption, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11000 - 11300 (0) yuan/ton. The monomer industry organized a meeting, and most monomer factories have officially closed their positions and temporarily stopped quoting. The market quotation will be suspended until the end of the meeting, and then enterprises will restart the quotation process according to the final agreement of the meeting [2]. - **Strategy** - Spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. During the dry season, the cost in the southwest region increases, and the start - up rate drops significantly. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the valuation is relatively low, but currently lacks driving factors, so the market is mainly in a state of shock [2]. - Unilateral: Short - term wait - and - see, and consider buying on dips [3]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Automobile Industry - **Production and Sales Data** - Passenger cars: In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% respectively [2]. - Commercial vehicles: In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% respectively [2]. - New energy vehicles: In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [2]. - Exports: In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 12, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 51890 yuan/ton and closing at 53460 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.43% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 140617 (138468 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 413154 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [5]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 25.90, with a month - on - month change of - 0.77%, the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW, with a month - on - month change of - 7.45%. The weekly polysilicon output was 27000.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 4.30%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, with a month - on - month change of - 5.55% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.63 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece. After the demand expectation weakened, the price of silicon wafers accelerated its decline, and the decline rate of 183 was faster than that of 210R. Currently, only the price of 210N was relatively supported [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27(0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28(0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31(0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.30(0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28(0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37(0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Operate within the range, and it is expected to operate within the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - period: None [9]. - Cross - variety: None [9]. - Spot - futures: None [9]. - Options: None [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The futures market of lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation with light spot trading. While recent inventory reduction supports the futures price, the downstream is reluctant to purchase at 85,000 yuan/ton. With the progress of mine restart, the market may turn from de - stocking to inventory accumulation if consumption weakens, leading to a potential decline in the futures price [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 86,760 yuan/ton and closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, a - 0.21% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,145,329 lots, and the open interest was 528,966 lots, up from 526,493 lots the previous day. The basis was - 4,400 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,8287 lots, an increase of 188 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,400 - 85,200 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,600 - 81,600 yuan/ton, also up 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,020 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The downstream material factories are cautious, only making rigid - demand purchases. The market trading is mainly post - pricing. Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, focusing on coefficients [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with both spodumene and salt - lake production ends having an operating rate of over 60%. The domestic lithium carbonate output in November is expected to be similar to that in October [2]. - In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market in the power sector and the energy - storage market are both booming, with supply in the energy - storage market remaining tight [2]. Corporate News - On November 12, Haibo Sichuang announced a ten - year strategic cooperation agreement with CATL from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2035. Haibo Sichuang will purchase battery cells and system products from CATL, and CATL will ensure product quality and provide preferential supply and competitive prices. The cumulative purchase volume from 2026 to 2028 will be no less than 200 GWh [3]. Strategy - Short - term: It is advisable to wait and see, pay attention to inventory and consumption turning points and the restart of mines, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory and tight ore supply support lead prices, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the decline in battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may cause the price to fall after rising. High - sell and low - buy strategies can be adopted, with the price range between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On November 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$20.89/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,485 yuan/ton, closed at 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,843 lots, an increase of 24,988 lots, and the holding volume was 50,539 lots, a decrease of 4,568 lots. The night - session closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, and the market trading was fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with last week. As of November 12, the LME lead inventory was 225,225 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute price strategy**: Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy in the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations [3]. - **Option strategy**: Sell wide straddle [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].