1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary policy easing. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly be in a range - bound consolidation in the short term [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - and medium - term easing expectations still exist [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to trade sideways yesterday. After the Politburo meeting, fiscal policy will increase fiscal efforts to stabilize aggregate economic demand, and there is an expectation of an increase in ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and special bond quotas, resulting in supply pressure on long - term bonds. However, the monetary policy environment remains moderately loose, so Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly trade sideways in the short term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, without releasing any signals beyond expectations. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later stage. After entering the off - season, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the steel futures market will operate weakly. There is still an expectation of a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and an expected increase in Mongolian coal imports. The futures markets of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are showing weak performance. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are poor, and the central political bureau meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the futures market will undergo a short - term weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the upcoming central economic work conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand remains slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly month - on - month. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure remaining. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the decline in spot prices, the cost - effectiveness has rebounded. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter storage and restocking of raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient impetus for a further significant decline. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment towards coking coal. The upcoming winter storage and restocking by downstream enterprises in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level futures valuation is expected to gradually recover at that time [2]. Alloys - The firm cost performance provides support for prices, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient impetus for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the futures price of ferromanganese silicon will mainly oscillate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand situation remains in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand of soda ash remains in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][7]. Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, hot metal production has continued to decline, and steel production has decreased from a high level, with a significant decline in rebar production. The funds available for domestic sample construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has declined significantly. The overall steel inventory has continued to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year. As demand weakens, it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. It is expected that the futures market will operate weakly [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot market prices have weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month. It is expected that hot metal production may continue to decline seasonally, the support from rigid demand will gradually weaken, and the restocking demand has not been significantly released. There is still overall inventory accumulation pressure. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly this week but is still lower than the same period last year. The demand from electric arc furnaces has increased to some extent, while the demand from blast furnaces has decreased slightly. The inventories of steel enterprises have increased slightly. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [12]. - **Coke**: The futures market is pessimistic, and the spot market is weak. The supply is affected by the decline in raw material coal prices and the start of heavy - pollution weather warnings in some areas. The demand has decreased with the decline in hot metal production. The inventory of coke enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has declined significantly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the import is being tested for increased capacity. The demand has decreased as the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the low - level futures valuation will gradually recover in mid - to late December [15]. - **Glass**: The macro - environment is warm, but the supply is expected to increase slightly, the demand is weak year - on - year, the middle - stream inventory is large, and the overall restocking ability is limited. The supply - demand situation remains in surplus. If there is no further cold - repair, prices may fall [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro - environment is warm, the supply is expected to increase, the demand from heavy - alkali is expected to weaken, and the demand from light - alkali has not changed much. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [18]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: Affected by the decline in coking coal prices, the futures price has decreased. The cost is firm, the demand has decreased with the decline in steel production, and the supply is difficult to contract significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price has decreased slightly. The cost is expected to remain high, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium market has weakened, the supply has decreased slightly, and the destocking is difficult. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Index Information - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%. The steel industry chain index was 1946.09, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a decline of 2.53% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.45% in the past month, and a decline of 7.69% since the beginning of the year [103][105].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1][7] - The meeting highlights the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, aiming to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][7] - Key strategies include promoting domestic demand, fostering innovation, pushing for reforms, enhancing foreign cooperation, and ensuring coordinated development [1][7] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.833%, with mixed performance in government bonds [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for November stands at 49.2, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong foreign trade resilience [2][9] - The market anticipates policy adjustments following the Central Political Bureau meeting, which may influence bond market dynamics [2][9] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Palm oil exports from Malaysia are expected to decrease by 16.4% in November, while production is forecasted to drop by 4.38%, indicating a potential inventory build-up [3][24] - Copper prices have declined due to tight supply conditions, with smelting profits at breakeven levels, while overall production continues to grow [3][16] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market remains cautious, with various factors influencing price movements across different sectors [3][16][24] Group 4: Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stagnation, with a decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - The stock market is expected to remain volatile ahead of significant policy announcements from both the Federal Reserve and the Central Economic Work Conference in China [8] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards defensive positioning as investors await clearer policy signals [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-09 中国原油进⼝延续⾼增⻓，纯苯港⼝库 存压⼒较⼤ 12月8日我国召开中央政治局会议，领导人明确将扩大内需作为 2026年的首要经济任务，并承诺加大跨周期调节力度，会议也表示继续实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。当日我国公布外贸数据， 11月出口同比增5.9%，进口增1.9%；其中11月我国原油进口5089万吨，同 比增长4.88%，累积增长3.2%。正如我们一再提及的，2025年全球石油需 求都有些超预期表现。油价在连续三日上涨后小幅走低，普京上周承诺将 向印度"不间断供应"燃料，市场密切关注俄罗斯原油的销售进展。 板块逻辑： 液体化工库存近期走势略有分化。乙二醇华东港口周一数据显示累库 8.06%，近几周乙二醇持续累库，且1月新装置投产在即。纯苯周度累库累 库16%，纯苯库存直逼近五年最高，而不仅仅是季节性五年最高；因为苯 乙烯装置前期的检修，苯乙烯周度去库，港口库存仍是五年最高，因货源 较为集中，苯乙烯期价强于纯苯。近期煤炭价格也连日走弱，因冬季取暖 不及预期且逐步累库，煤化工的成本支撑因此弱化 ...

转自：新华财经 •中共中央政治局召开会议 分析研究2026年经济工作 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 •11月我国货物贸易进出口总值同比增长4.1% 比上月加快4个百分点 •上期所：贵金属市场波动较大 请各有关单位提示投资者做好风险防范 •中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求 进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经 济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动 多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底 线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。（新华社） •上海期货交易所8日发布做好市场风险控制工作的通知称，近期国际形势复杂多变，贵金属市场波动较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风 险防范工作，理性投资，共同维 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924 points, up 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.6% [1] - The total market turnover was approximately 2.05 trillion, showing an increase compared to the previous period [1] Key Focus Areas - The market's rise was primarily driven by gains in non-bank financials and technology stocks, supported by insurance funds adjusting risk factors to release more investable capital [2] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a favorable policy environment [2] - Despite the A-share market's increase, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2%, suggesting weak foreign capital inflow and limited signs of savings migration [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap from November 21 and closed slightly above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the technical rebound target has been achieved [2] - Future movements may require consolidation rather than a sustained upward trend, with attention on the potential for a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve [2] External Market Conditions - Overnight, U.S. stock markets saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45% and the Nasdaq down 0.14% [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.16%, indicating a shift in bond market sentiment [3] - The A50 index and Hang Seng futures showed minor declines, reflecting a stable external environment [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy leans towards a rotational approach, focusing on sectors such as industrial machinery, satellite internet, and semiconductor equipment materials, which are seen as key areas for investment [3] - Continuous monitoring of external policy changes, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, is essential for guiding investment decisions [3]

NO.2央行公开市场开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作 NO.1 中共中央政治局：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效 每经编辑：张益铭 据央视新闻，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全 面依法治国工作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 NO.4美联储议息会议在即，市场预期再次降息可能性大 据央视新闻，美国联邦储备委员会定于9日和10日举行货币政策例会并公布议息决定。市场普遍认为， 美联储再次降息可能性较大。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25 个基点，当前国际金融市场走势已体现美联储降息预期。 点评：市场普遍预期美联储将在即将到来的议息会议上再次降息，这种预期显然受近期疲软的就业数据 影响。持续的降息显示出美联储致力于通过货币政策刺激经济的决心，旨在应对经济增速放缓及全球经 济不确定性。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 8, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 122.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 107.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly rising but still at a low level of 1.3% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained at 1.28%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight funds using credit bonds as collateral, with quotes slightly decreasing to the range of 1.45%-1.47% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was at 1.66%, unchanged from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.29%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.02% [12] Group 5: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2026, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [13] - Key focuses include enhancing domestic demand, fostering innovation, and promoting high-quality development while ensuring risk management in critical areas [13] Group 6: Global Economic Context - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent weak employment data [16] - Japan's government submitted a supplementary budget for 2025, with general account expenditures reaching a record high post-COVID, primarily funded through additional bond issuance [16] - Japan's GDP for Q3 showed a larger-than-expected contraction, confirming the first decline in six quarters [16]

● 本报记者 赵白执南 今年以来，积极财政政策持续发力，政策效应不断释放。中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议提出，明年 经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 专家表示，下一步，财政政策将延续积极取向，在提振消费方面，除综合运用财政补贴、贷款贴息等政 策工具外，还将着力"投资于人"，把更多资金资源用于服务民生，针对公共服务的短板弱项精准施策， 激发消费动能。 "当前，中国经济正处于迈向高质量发展的蓄势攻坚期，更需发挥财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱 作用，持续发力、适时加力，坚持在发展中破解难题，以积极财政夯实经济平稳运行'压舱石'。"中诚 信国际研究院院长袁海霞说。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策成为共识。专家预期，明年赤字规模有望保持在4% 左右，特别国债、地方政府专项债券规模有望适度增加。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟表示，在总量上，财政或将保证广义财政支出增速持平或略高于名义经 济增长速度。在结构上，财政或加大对新经济的投入，更多呵护民生以及培育居民消费动能；财政资金 或进一步向社会保障、"一老一小"等民生领域倾斜。 今年以来， ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the implementation of more proactive macro policies to enhance policy foresight, targeting, and coordination, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [1] - The meeting highlights the need for a strong domestic market, innovation-driven growth, and coordinated development, while also addressing risks in key areas to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - A continuation of a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy is expected for the coming year, with an emphasis on integrating existing and new policies to improve macroeconomic governance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Various institutions express cautious optimism regarding the impact of the economic work meeting on capital markets and real estate, suggesting a focus on large-cap stocks [2] - Predictions indicate a slight increase in the broad fiscal deficit ratio next year, with continued emphasis on a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - Analysts recommend focusing on industry leaders under the narrative of a large market and "anti-involution," as well as service consumption recovery [2][3] Group 3: International Trade and Cooperation - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates that economic and trade cooperation should remain a stabilizing force in China-U.S. relations, emphasizing mutual benefits [2] - Discussions between Chinese and European automotive industry leaders highlight the deep integration of the automotive sectors and the importance of collaboration in promoting green and intelligent development [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The AI healthcare market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 115.7 billion yuan by 2025 and 159.8 billion yuan by 2028, driven by policy support and technological advancements [11] - The global asset management sector remains optimistic about U.S. equities, with over 75% of asset allocators preparing for a favorable risk environment by 2026, citing resilient global growth and continued monetary easing [10]