Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in dollar demand has suppressed the buying power of the euro against the dollar, leading to a reversal of most gains made after Powell's speech last Friday, where the EUR/USD pair had briefly surpassed the 1.1700 mark [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at the July 24 high of 1.1788, with further resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.1830 reached on July 1. A breakthrough of 1.1830 could lead to testing the September 3, 2021 high of 1.1909, which is close to the 1.2000 level [3]. - Temporary support is located at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1488, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the May 29 low of 1.1210 [3]. - Momentum indicators show a lack of clear direction, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 51, suggesting limited upside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 11, indicating a sideways trend [3]. Market Outlook - The EUR/USD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with the dollar likely to dominate the overall trend until a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance or new trade-related developments occur [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data includes a decline in durable goods orders by 4.0%, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by 0.3%. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone was reported at 87, below the consensus of 90 [6]. Trade Relations - The trade tensions have eased with the U.S. and China extending the tariff truce for 90 days, delaying new tariff measures. Current tariffs remain high, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods [7]. Central Bank Perspectives - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Powell's balanced remarks contrasting with the dovish stance of other board members. Upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report and inflation data, are critical for future policy decisions [8]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy is "robust, even slightly better than expected," but markets do not anticipate rate cuts until spring 2026 [9]. Speculative Sentiment - Speculative long positions in the euro have increased to nearly 118,700 contracts, a three-week high, while institutional investors have reduced short positions to about 166,400 contracts, a two-week low. Open interest has risen for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately 825,200 contracts [10].

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,386.27, with a latest price of $3,376.48 per ounce, reflecting a 0.32% increase, and has seen a high of $3,386.27 and a low of $3,350.89 during the session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the two-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 3.728% and the ten-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 4.271%, leading to a flattening of the yield curve to 54 basis points [2] - The stock market saw a collective decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% to 6,439.32 points, the Nasdaq down 0.22% to 21,449.29 points, and the Dow Jones falling 0.77% to 45,282.47 points, reflecting a shift to a cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 2 - The monthly chart shows gold prices have formed four consecutive candlesticks with upper shadows, establishing a solid foundation for a bearish trend [3] - The impact of tariff factors has been fully priced in by the market, and new tariff policies are unlikely to have the same strong shock effect as during the early Trump administration [3] - The geopolitical influence has significantly weakened, with conflicts being mostly small-scale and lacking substantial involvement from major powers [3] - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts has been a topic of speculation for two years, with the narrative of "the wolf is coming" repeatedly emerging [3] - Future gold prices are expected to gradually decline, potentially testing support levels at $3,120 and $3,268, with a final target area around $3,000 to $2,950 [3] - There remains uncertainty in the short to medium-term regarding whether gold will first break through resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 before declining or if it will be directly constrained by this resistance and experience a sharp decline [3]

Group 1 - The recent movements in the global bond market are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with Powell hinting at a potential interest rate cut as early as next month [1] - The U.S. Treasury prices have risen significantly, leading to the steepest yield curve steepening in nearly four years, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Market skepticism remains regarding the extent and sustainability of potential rate cuts, with futures pricing indicating an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17 meeting [4] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting key employment and inflation data to confirm the monetary policy direction, indicating that future market movements will depend on upcoming macroeconomic indicators [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly to 3.7%, close to the low point earlier this month, following a jobs report that showed a notable slowdown in employment growth [4] - The interest rate swap market is beginning to price in the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, with some investors even betting on three cuts [4] Group 3 - Despite a positive reaction in the bond market to Powell's statements, the magnitude of this response remains limited due to conflicting economic signals [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, while inflation remains at a high level, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh risks when considering policy easing [6] - The upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index will be crucial; if inflation pressures remain strong, market confidence in further easing may be challenged [4][6] Group 4 - Attention is also required for the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions covering two-year, five-year, and seven-year bonds, as investor subscription rates will reflect long-term interest rate outlooks and gauge risk appetite [6] - The uncertainty persists, as even with the Fed's easing measures last year, economic resilience led to a pause in actions at the beginning of this year [6] - The bond market's current positive response to Powell's remarks is contingent on future data performance, with employment and inflation being key determinants of the Fed's policy path [6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's policy shows increasing division among officials, with some advocating for only one rate cut this year while others see no urgent need for cuts due to inflation concerns [2][3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have decreased from 92% to 74%, with the anticipated total rate cut by year-end reduced from 54 basis points to 49 basis points, primarily due to recent inflation data and cautious statements from officials [3] - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with rising unemployment claims and weak manufacturing activity suggesting labor market risks, which may boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support gold prices, as there are no signs of a quick resolution [7] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting multiple entities and vessels, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty [8] - The limited scope of tariff reductions in the U.S.-EU trade agreement may drive more funds into gold due to global uncertainties [9] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following a peak of 3500 in April, with a clear triangular convergence pattern forming, indicating potential volatility ahead [11] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified, with support at approximately 3315 and resistance at around 3384 [11] - In the four-hour timeframe, the market remains in a downward trend until the previous high of 3409 is breached, with critical levels to watch being 3311 for support and 3352 for resistance [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold prices are influenced by various factors including Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the strength of the US dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 776.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3380.5 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: There is significant market divergence regarding the likelihood and extent of a potential rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but the unexpected rise in July PPI has cooled rate cut expectations. Investors are focused on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, which could either strengthen the dollar and pressure gold if hawkish, or allow for a rebound in gold if dovish [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia have not reached an agreement, with attention on the Russia-Ukraine talks. Trump's positive signals for ending the conflict may weaken gold's safe-haven demand if peace talks progress, but uncertainty regarding Putin's willingness to agree maintains support for gold [3]. - US Dollar Performance: The dollar's strong performance has negatively impacted gold prices, as a rising dollar index makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Gold prices are currently in a sensitive range with mixed factors at play. The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable; a dovish signal from Powell could lead to a short-term rebound, while an emphasis on inflation may continue to pressure gold. Geopolitical uncertainties persist, with positive developments in negotiations potentially reducing gold's appeal, while adverse developments could boost it. The dollar's performance will continue to influence gold prices. Overall, gold is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with critical levels such as the 100-day moving average being closely monitored for potential breakout or breakdown [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns over a recent unexpected surge in service sector prices, indicating it could be a "danger signal" for inflation, despite some signs of easing in inflation data [1]. Group 1: Inflation Data - Recent inflation reports show a significant increase in service sector inflation, with a month-on-month rise of 1.1%, the largest increase since March 2022 [1]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, with service costs being a major contributor [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey indicated a rise in both short-term and long-term inflation expectations, heightening concerns about inflation persistence in the market [1]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Goolsbee emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to carefully assess more data before the September policy meeting, describing it as a "live meeting" where decisions should not be based on a single report [1]. - He highlighted the importance of confirming whether inflation is genuinely on a downward trajectory before making policy decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury bonds are experiencing a decline, with the Federal Reserve's Harvack stating that the Fed does not believe its policy is far from neutral and sees no need for stimulative measures [1] Group 1 - The decline in U.S. Treasury bonds indicates potential shifts in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - Harvack's comments suggest a stable outlook for monetary policy, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rates [1]

前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德：美联储2026年可根据数据表现采取更多行动。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, reflecting a cautious approach amid calls for market stimulus, influenced by global capital flows and the Federal Reserve's policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Not Lowering Interest Rates - The current net interest margin for commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.42%, indicating that banks earn only 1.42 yuan for every 100 yuan loaned, which poses systemic risks if LPR is lowered [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is a significant constraint, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, yet the Fed has maintained its rate at 4.25%-4.5%, leading to a 274 basis point inversion in the 10-year treasury yield between China and the U.S. [5][6]. - Economic fundamentals provide implicit support, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first half of the year and a weighted average loan interest rate dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, suggesting that further rate cuts may not be necessary [7]. Group 2: Impact of Global Capital Flows - The inverted interest rate differential of 274 basis points incentivizes foreign capital to withdraw from Chinese bonds, resulting in a net sell-off of 68 billion yuan in July, which increases financing costs for real estate companies [11]. - Currency fluctuations linked to LPR adjustments can indirectly raise mortgage costs for consumers, as a depreciation of the yuan can increase the hidden costs of purchasing property [13]. - The dynamics of LPR stability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts illustrate the complex interplay of global interest rates, requiring the industry to navigate external pressures while stimulating domestic demand [10].