Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's policy must continue to focus on reducing inflation [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's ongoing commitment to addressing inflation indicates a sustained approach to monetary policy [1] - The emphasis on inflation reduction suggests potential implications for interest rates and economic growth [1] - The statement reflects the Federal Reserve's awareness of current economic conditions and its role in stabilizing the economy [1]

美国国债收益率在亚洲交易时段小幅走高，此前美联储10月份会议的纪要称，对于该委员会12月份的政 策决定存在"严重分歧的看法"。与此同时，美国劳工统计局周三表示，不会发布10月份的完整美国就业 报告，该报告将与11月份的完整报告一同发布。SEB的Amanda Sundstrom在一份报告中称，在美国劳工 统计局发布上述声明后，市场认为美联储12月降息的可能性已大幅下降，而美联储的会议纪要也起到了 助推作用，因其暗示利率可能在今年剩余时间保持在当前水平。据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收 益率上升1个基点，至4.140%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to release several important economic data and events, with a particular focus on U.S. labor market indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1] - Key U.S. employment data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, including the unemployment rate for September, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and average hourly earnings month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The release of these delayed data due to the previous government shutdown will provide crucial insights into the state of the U.S. labor market [1] Group 2 - Additional U.S. economic indicators to be released include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November, annualized existing home sales for October, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month for October, which will help gauge the latest trends in the U.S. economy [3] - In Europe, key data such as Germany's PPI for October, Switzerland's trade balance for October, the CBI Industrial Orders Balance for the UK in November, and the preliminary consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in November are noteworthy for investors [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on financial stability at 00:00 the following day, followed by Goolsbee at 01:40, which may provide clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve [3]

在美国政府停摆超过一个月，两份非农就业报告连续缺席之后，终于市场在今晚将等到美国9月非农就业报告的公布，意味着美国数据公布开始趋向正常化 的开端。市场预期非农就业人数将增长5万（前值2.2万），失业率维持在4.3%，平均每小时工资月率维持在0.3%的温和增速。 今年大部分时间里，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的官员和经济学家都认为：美国就业市场正处于"低招聘、低解雇"的状态。而当前美联储官员之间的分歧日 益加剧，一些政策制定者警告称，就业风险如今已与通胀风险不相上下。 自年初以来，根据政府主要调查数据，家庭就业人数在截至8月份的几个月内每月减少约7.2万人，劳动力参与率有所下滑，职位空缺持续下降。截至10月 底，Indeed.com报告称，职位发布数量已跌至2021年以来的最低水平，几乎所有行业的职位空缺数量都同比下降。 ADP于11月5日发布的月度报告显示，在经历了前两个月的下滑之后，私营部门就业人数增加了4.2万人。劳工部网站公布的补充数据显示，截至10月18日当 周，首次申请失业救济人数为23.2万人，与9月中旬的水平大致持平。 基于9月份的数据是在美国政府停摆前，所以未能全然反映当前美国实际的就业市场变化， ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in the US Dollar Index are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the relative resilience of the US economy, and the divergence in non-USD currencies [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The October core PCE inflation rate fell to 3.5%, which was below expectations, leading multiple Federal Reserve officials to emphasize the need to maintain restrictive interest rates to solidify anti-inflation achievements [2]. - The annualized GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.9%, indicating a relatively strong economic resilience, which further enhances the attractiveness of the US dollar [2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The Eurozone faces rising risks of economic stagnation, while the Bank of Japan continues its accommodative stance, and the British pound is pressured by the weakness of the UK economy, collectively exerting downward pressure on non-USD currencies [2]. - The overall weakness in non-USD currencies indirectly supports the upward movement of the US Dollar Index [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US Dollar Index has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 99.50, currently stabilizing above the key support level of 100.20, with the latest quote at 100.246 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 100.20, 100.10, and the 50-hour moving average around 100.05, while resistance is concentrated at 100.30, 100.40, and the previous upper boundary of 100.50 [3]. - Technical indicators suggest a strengthening upward trend for the index, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 22 [3].

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 卖出看涨 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 多头减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 低位震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹承压 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 上涨受限 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York futures gold and spot gold prices have recently risen, with New York futures gold surpassing $4130 per ounce on November 19, increasing by 1.56% [1] - Spot gold also broke through $4130 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.57% [2] - On November 20, both continued to rise, with New York futures gold breaking through $4080 (down 0.09%), $4090 (up 0.19%), and $4100 (up 0.43%) [3][4][5] - Spot gold followed suit, breaking through $4080 (up 0.05%), $4090 (up 0.31%), and $4100 (up 0.55%) [6][7][8] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels for the week ending November 14, significantly exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels, with the previous value showing an increase of 6.413 million barrels [9] - The CEO of Saudi Aramco indicated that oil demand is expected to grow strongly in 2025 and 2026 [10] Group 3: Financial Futures - The Hang Seng Index futures showed stable performance, closing up 0.02% at 25826.96 points on November 20, with a low water mark of 3.69 points [11] - Following the U.S. Labor Department's announcement to cancel the October non-farm payroll report, January futures for the federal funds rate faced significant selling, dropping to a low of 96.25, indicating reduced market expectations for a loosening of Fed policy in the coming months [12] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the policy path for December, with many believing that maintaining rates may be appropriate, while a few supported another rate cut [13] - Consequently, the CME "FedWatch" tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December fell to 31.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates increased to 68.2% [14] Group 5: Currency and Stock Market - The U.S. dollar index experienced increased volatility, with the dollar rising 1% against the yen to 157.07, nearing the highest point since mid-January [15] - In the U.S. stock market, major indices closed higher on November 19, with the Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.38%, and Nasdaq up 0.59%, led by gains in technology stocks such as Google, Broadcom, and Nvidia [16]

美联储最新政策会议纪要显示，尽管多位官员对劳动力市场疲软表示担忧，但认为在年内剩余时间维持 利率稳定可能是适宜之举。咨询公司RSM首席经济学家JosephBrusuelas解读称，这份纪要"清晰揭示了 鹰鸽两派的分歧，文本暗示鹰派略占上风，他们围绕通胀固化风险提出了具有说服力的论据"。自10月 会议以来，经济背景已发生变化：美国政府停摆结束，就业与通胀等关键数据预计将恢复发布。但美国 劳工部周三表示不会发布10月失业率数据，并将合并了10月部分就业数据的11月非农数据推迟至12月16 日发布，届时美联储年内最后一次会议已落幕。Brusuelas指出这种延迟"意味着美联储面临的决策迷雾 仅部分消散。在此情况下，美联储不会也不应降息"。（格隆汇） ...

周三亚洲早盘，市场在避险需求回流、重要数据延迟以及政策前景存在分歧的背景下呈现反复震荡。随 着投资者重新审视美联储12月的政策方向，黄金借势出现企稳回升，而美元在多重信号并存的环境中继 续维持区间内高位波动。 • 关注波动风险：重大数据前后或出现价格快速拉升或回落，建议适当降低杠杆并设置严格止损。 • 中期判断需结合政策与全球风险因素，避免因单一数据作出情绪化操作。 在避险需求升温的带动下，黄金短线重新站回4070美元附近；然而，美联储官员偏鹰的观点正持续压缩 市场对年底降息的期待，使得金价上行依旧受限。随着FOMC纪要与推迟的非农数据陆续发布，市场方 向或在未来48小时内迎来关键分水岭。当前更适合以风控与事件观察为主，等待更加明确的走向再行布 局。 若非农偏弱→美元承压→黄金获得更强动能 若非农偏强→降息预期继续降温→金价或再次承压 在结果落地之前，金价大概率仍保持在4030—4080美元之间震荡整理，等待明确指引出现。 经历了连续几日的压力后，黄金（XAU/USD）在早盘重新获得部分买盘关注，价格回到约4070美元附 近。由于政府停摆造成部分关键经济指标滞后发布，市场重新评估就业表现对联储决策的权重，使得 ...

Market Performance - On November 18, gold stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced significant declines, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) dropping 8.88%, Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) down 5.38%, and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) falling 5.08% [2][3] - In A-shares, Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) fell 3.51%, Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) decreased by 3.34%, and Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) dropped 3.1% [2][3] Gold Price Trends - Spot gold prices faced heavy selling pressure, briefly falling below $4000 per ounce for the first time since November 10, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline [4][5] - As of the latest update, spot gold was reported at $4041.62 per ounce [4] Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices and stocks is primarily attributed to a strengthening US dollar and a cooling expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5][6] - Recent comments from regional Federal Reserve presidents opposing further rate cuts have contributed to market sentiment, emphasizing ongoing inflation concerns [6][7] Market Outlook - Short-term adjustments in the gold market are expected to continue, with institutions predicting a return to a price correction phase following previous optimistic expectations [9][10] - Despite recent declines, gold prices remain elevated, with a year-to-date increase of over 53%, supported by factors such as loose monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [11] Industry Recognition - The "Hong Kong 100 Strong" list is set to launch, highlighting the importance of the gold sector in the Hong Kong market, with companies like Zijin Mining (02899.HK) and Lingbao Gold being notable participants [12][13]