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ETO MARKETS:周二黄金市场在贸易乐观情绪中受挫 未来走势如何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 09:19
周二(北京时间5月13日),现货黄金交投于3234.88美元附近,金价周一下跌近3%,ETOMARKETS分 析主要原因是贸易缓和降低了市场的避险情绪。此前,两大经济体宣布达成降低关税的临时协议,冒险 情绪逐渐升温,导致黄金价格大幅下跌。现货金报每盎司3225.28美元,下跌3%;美国期金收低3.5%, 报3228美元。这一走势表明,黄金市场对贸易局势的变化极为敏感,而当前市场的乐观情绪对黄金价格 产生了明显的抑制作用。 乐观情绪的可持续性 尽管当前市场对贸易协议的达成表现出乐观情绪,但这种乐观情绪的可持续性仍需观察。贸易协议的最 终实施和未来的贸易政策走向仍存在不确定性,这可能在未来引发市场的波动。黄金市场在当前的乐观 情绪下受到抑制,但如果未来贸易局势出现反复或新的不确定性,黄金价格可能会迅速反弹。 美联储政策的影响 交易员们正在等待周二公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)数据,以了解美联储的政策走向。本周还将 公布其他关键数据,包括生产者价格指数(PPI)和零售销售。这些数据将为市场提供关于美国经济状 况和通胀水平的重要信息,进而影响美联储的利率决策。如果数据显示美国经济放缓或通胀压力上升, 美联储可能会 ...
从今晚的CPI看关税:政策冲击下的美国通胀压力有多大?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 08:52
周一美国和中国宣布达成暂时削减对等关税的协议后,今晚市场继续迎来本周的重磅数据——美国4月CPI,即便上周美联储决议刚过,但这是首份能够更 加充分体现特朗普关税政策影响的重要通胀报告,所以将从经济和美联储政策前景的指引变化上给市场带来关键的指引。 许多经济学家预计,随着时间的推移,其影响将变得更加明显,关税对通胀的全面影响可能会在未来三到六个月内显现。美国银行将4月份的通胀数据描述 为"关税风暴"前的平静。因关税将大幅推高通胀,可能从今年夏天开始,届时美国企业将耗尽现有库存,需要开始以更高的价格销售新产品。 这有助于解释消费者对通胀、经济和就业市场日益增长的担忧。预计周四公布的美国零售额数据将在一定程度上反映出这种担忧;在第一季度末实现1.5% 的健康增长后,经济学家预测4月份零售额将基本持平,因为前期汽车需求有所降温。 同脏压力跟随关税升温 根据FactSet的普遍预期,预计4月份CPI环比上涨0.3%,同比上涨2.3%。不包括食品和能源成本的核心通胀预计将上涨0.3%,同比上涨2.8%。由于能源价格 拖累通胀压力下降,3月份CPI环比下降,为2020年以来首次。 因此如果数据符合预期,则标志着美国消费者价 ...
长江期货市场交易指引-20250513
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 06:15
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting at high prices, tin is recommended for trading within a range, gold is recommended for building positions at low prices after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended for observation; and the outlook for soda ash is weakly fluctuating [1][20][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound with fluctuations, apples are expected to fluctuate, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs are expected to show a weak trend, corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][33][38]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures products based on factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, domestic policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit situations. It believes that Sino - US trade negotiations have a significant impact on the market, with short - term tariff easing exceeding expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. Different products have different trends due to their own supply - demand and cost characteristics, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [5][20]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Sino - US trade situation improvement boosts the strong rebound of US stocks. The negotiation process exceeds expectations, and the index futures may fluctuate strongly. However, there are risks of callback after reaching the previous high [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade negotiations may reduce the pressure of export decline. The potential downward space of bond yields is limited, but there are still phased opportunities. Short - term attention should be paid to the fermentation of reverse trading [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price rebounds, and the market expectation improves due to Sino - US negotiations. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of deterioration, and the price is expected to fluctuate under the background of low valuation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply shows a slight decline, and the demand has limited upward space. Considering the approaching traditional off - season and other factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the coke market has no prominent short - term supply - demand contradictions, but there are adjustment pressures. Both are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation eases, but the impact of the trade war on demand may gradually appear. The fundamentals support the price, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite increases, and the demand has a weakening expectation. It is recommended for observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an excess pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: Sino - US trade negotiations reduce market risk aversion, but the tariff policy is expected to be repeated. Both are expected to fluctuate [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply has new investment plans. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to tariff progress [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient in the medium term, with limited demand growth [22]. - **Rubber**: The macro - good news boosts the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The decline is expected to slow down [26][27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The short - term news has a certain boost, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [28]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [30]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation [30]. - **PTA**: The cost collapses, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the support at 4200 [32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply increases and is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [33][34]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may be supported, but the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [34]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak. The long - term cost increases, and the price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different periods [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The long - term trend is expected to decline first and then rebound [38][43].
关税如何影响行业配置?
2025-05-12 15:16
关税如何影响行业配置?20250512 摘要 • 中美贸易谈判取得进展,但即使关税降至 54%-74%,仍高于历史水平, 将持续影响企业利润、实体经济和外需,并可能推高美国通胀。市场短期 情绪提振,但需关注实际需求和通胀影响。 • 美联储面临经济增长放缓和通胀压力的两难境地,可能采取降息、降准等 措施,但市场反应不振,投资者对其效果存疑。美联储政策需关注全球经 济环境及其他央行政策动向。 • 亚洲货币汇率近期波动与金管局干预、全球贸易环境变化和美元资产安全 性有关。台湾寿险公司在汇兑和风险敞口方面存在风险,美元资产未能起 到良好保护作用,加剧了市场波动。 • 房地产市场在 2024 年二季度开始修复,但近期出现疲弱迹象。在对等关 税背景下,需重新评估房地产行业。预计房地产市场将继续经历调整,但 总体趋势有望保持稳定。 • 4 月份数据显示,对美国出口下滑,对东南亚出口增加,可能涉及转口贸 易。未来需关注新兴市场是否会受到更多限制,以及转口贸易是否会遇到 阻碍。 Q&A 关税谈判的进展如何,未来可能会对市场和行业产生哪些影响? 美联储政策目前面临明显的两难境地。一方面需要应对经济增长放缓的问题, 另一方面又要控 ...
美联储高官警告:尽管贸易有进展,但特朗普关税仍是“定时炸弹”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-12 14:59
美联储理事库格勒表示,即使最近中美贸易关系取得进展,但特朗普政府的关税政策仍可能推升通胀并 拖累经济增长。 库格勒周一在一场活动中表示:"贸易政策正在演变,并可能继续转变,今天早上也是如此。尽管如 此,即使关税水平接近目前宣布的水平,它们似乎仍可能产生显著的经济影响。" 商务部此前公布的声明显示,中美双方将暂时降低彼此商品的关税,以便两国努力达成一项更全面的贸 易协议。美国将对华关税从合计145%降至30%,而中国将对美商品关税从125%降至10%。 根据芝商所的美联储观察工具,市场此前曾预计美联储在即将到来的6月会议上降息25个基点,并在今 年余下时间再降息两次。 库格勒表示:"未来通胀和就业可能走向不同方向,在考虑未来政策路径时,我将密切关注事态发展。" 她还表示,她预计关税将构成负面供给冲击,随着物价上涨,导致经济增长和消费者需求减弱。 她表示,关税对生产率也可能产生"显著影响",因为企业可能削减投资,并采取其他效率较低的举措来 应对这种情况。她表示,整体经济需求下降也可能使求职者更难找到工作。 库格勒表示:"这种整体需求下降可能对通胀产生下行压力,但可能不足以抵消不利供给冲击的影响。" 库格勒形容美国 ...
钢矿周度报告2025-05-12:宏观预期降温,黑色震荡下行-20250512
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 09:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].
长江期货贵金属周报:贸易政策谈判在即,价格延续震荡-20250512
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:33
长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即,价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员:李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾:上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250512
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:06
黄金期货 2025.05.12-05.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周美联储召开议息会议,维持基准利率不变,并指出关税对通胀的影 响较大且不确定,美元指数止跌反弹,黄金高位震荡。中长期支撑逻辑: 美国财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。后续需关注美联储政 策路径、地缘冲突与关税进展。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存,等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑:758-765,上方压力829-836。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调,等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑:776-785,上方压力828-837。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...
黄金走势推演与后市机会分析(2025.5.11)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-11 08:32
本周,黄金整体冲高回落走势,周一周二大阳上涨,周三小幅跳空高开后直接拐头下跌收阴,周四延续下跌收阴,周五下探回升收阳,周线最终收出一根带 有长上影线的阳线。 一、基本面 1、本周市场情况 (1)地缘政治因素 中东局势持续紧张,伊朗核谈判推迟,美伊关系紧张,随时可能升级的冲突持续为黄金提供避险支撑。同时,俄乌冲突依旧存在,印度与巴基斯坦的军事对 峙局面未变,这些地缘政治风险巩固了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力,刺激市场避险需求,推动金价上涨。 (2)经济数据与政策因素 美英达成贸易协议,部分撤回特定领域的关税、扩大产品市场准入,但协议仍有诸多细节待定。此外,欧盟威胁对千亿欧元美国产品征税,贸易紧张局势的 不确定性依然存在,这对黄金价格产生了双向影响。 美国经济数据:5月3日当周首次申请失业救济人数下降至22.8万人,低于市场预期,显示就业市场有一定韧性。不过,美联储理事巴尔警告特朗普关税政策 可能在今年晚些时候推高通胀、降低经济增长并增加失业率。美国经济数据的复杂性使得市场对经济前景的预期存在分歧,增加了市场不确定性,影响黄金 走势。 美联储政策预期:5月8日,美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变,连 ...
美联储威廉姆斯:美联储有时间,政策处于良好位置以观察后续发展。
news flash· 2025-05-09 13:18
美联储威廉姆斯:美联储有时间,政策处于良好位置以观察后续发展。 ...