记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 当地时间12月5日，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.19%，纳指涨0.31%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47954.99 | 23578.13 | 6870.40 | | +104.05 +0.22% | +72.99 +0.31% | +13.28 +0.19% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7831.43 | 25735.00 | 6879.50 | | +99.55 +1.29% | +112.25 +0.44% | +12.75 +0.19% | 美国大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.20%。个股方面，脸书涨近2%，谷歌涨超1%，微软涨0.48%，亚马逊涨0.18%，特斯 拉涨0.1%，苹果跌0.68%，英伟达跌0.53%。 费城半导体指数涨1.09%，美光科技涨超4%，博通涨逾2%，英特尔涨超2%，微芯科技涨逾1%。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.29%，万得中概科技龙头指数涨0.66%。个股方面，叮咚买菜涨超11% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic economic data shows marginal weakness, corporate profits have not significantly improved, and the stock index's short - term rebound should be viewed with caution; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, a 25 - basis - point rate cut is likely, and gold will continue to oscillate at a high level and may face a directional choice [38]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the stock index's valuation will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade situations, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, the Russia - Ukraine situation is expected to ease, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been fully digested, so there is a risk of a deep adjustment in the gold market [38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry Data - In November 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. Industrial production has warmed up, but demand is weak, external demand is under great downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remains weak [3]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure, production costs are difficult to pass on to consumers, the phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits persists, and some industries are still in the active inventory reduction stage [15]. - The margin trading balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges slightly declined to 2457.665 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan [17]. Gold Fundamental Data - In October, the ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased, further strengthening the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2% [22]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have slowed down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold has continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [36]. Strategy Recommendation - In November, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but has been in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. The domestic economic development is unbalanced with insufficient endogenous growth momentum and weak demand. The expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is strengthening, the external market is warming up, and concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble have temporarily eased. As the time window for the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, the market expects more growth - stabilizing policies. The stock index's short - term rebound should be viewed cautiously; the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in October has strengthened the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced on December 11. Given that the rate - cut expectation has been digested by the market, focus on the monetary policy statement, Powell's speech, and the change in the interest rate dot - plot. In the short term, Trump's statement about announcing the next Fed chairperson early next year has put pressure on the US dollar index, and gold is in a high - level oscillation [37]. Next Week's Focus - Important US data for November, such as imports and exports and CPI annual rate, as well as the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [39]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on December 5 showed mixed results, with the shipping European line main contract rising over 4% and copper and zinc contracts increasing by over 2% [1][2] - The China Securities commodity futures price index closed at 1514.45 points, up 4.20 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Shipping European Line - The shipping European line futures experienced a "four consecutive days of gains," with the main contract closing up 4.04% after reaching a peak increase of over 6% during the day [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by Maersk's announcement to raise January freight rates to $2,275 per TEU and $3,500 per FEU, although there are concerns about the actual market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector remained strong, with both London copper and Shanghai copper reaching new historical highs, with Shanghai copper closing at 92,780 yuan per ton, up 2.19% [3] - Factors contributing to the bullish sentiment include expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar, alongside concerns about copper supply shortages due to high cancellation rates of LME copper warehouse receipts [3] Group 4: Coke and Coal Market - The coke market saw significant declines, with the main contract for coke dropping by 3.15%, while coking coal also fell by over 2% due to weakening supply-demand dynamics [4] - Despite limited recovery space for domestic coal mines, stable production levels and high inventory at the Ganqimaodu port are influencing market conditions [4] Group 5: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon futures fell by 2.96% amid a weak spot market and reduced downstream demand, with significant production cuts initiated by silicon wafer manufacturers [5] - The expected polysilicon production for December is around 120,000 tons, while silicon wafer production is projected to drop significantly, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [5]

王爷说财经讯： 12月5日，国际铜价迎来"史诗级暴涨"！ 伦敦金属交易所铜期货盘中触及11581.5美元/吨的历史峰值，沪铜主力合约直接站上9万元/吨大关。花旗刚发重磅报告，直言2026年第二季度铜价将冲到 13000美元/吨，甚至有40%概率摸高14000美元！ 国际铜价这波涨势到底有多猛？今年以来伦铜已累涨超30%，COMEX铜库存较去年年底暴增300%，美国市场占了全球三大交易所库存的62%。手里有铜 相关股票、基金的朋友，是不是已经偷偷赚麻了？没上车的人更慌了——现在追还来得及吗？铜价为啥突然"开挂"？13000美元的目标真能实现？ 01、铜价从"平稳"到"狂飙"，只用了3个月？ 咱们先看一组扎心数据：10月底伦铜才刚破1.12万美元，短短一个多月就再创新高；国内沪铜从年初的7万元/吨，一路涨到现在的近9万元，涨幅超28%。 这不是孤立行情，而是全球资本的集体动作。 美国因为关税政策不确定性，形成了"铜库存黑洞"，资金疯狂囤铜导致非美市场现货紧缺。 江铜集团德兴铜矿都开始24小时满负荷生产，连低品位矿石都不放过，今年多处理了60多万吨低品位矿，就为了多回收1000吨铜金属。 市场已经从"犹豫观望"变成 ...

日本央行政策动向方面，日本央行很可能在12月加息，政策利率可能从0.5%上调至0.75%。这是自今年 1月份以来的首次加息，且日本政府预计将容忍这一决定。 美国债务的不可持续性、央行购金等长期驱动因素对贵金属支撑依然稳固。 美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，远低于市场预期的增加1万人，就业 市场疲软进一步强化12月降息预期，流动性宽松继续对贵金属价格形成提振。 【机构观点】 摘要数据显示，12月5日上海黄金现货价格报价951.61元/克，相较于期货主力价格(961.04元/克)贴水9.43 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 12月5日 收盘价(元/克) 当日涨跌幅 成交量(手) 持仓量(手) 沪金主力 961.04 0.36% 237697 196953 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月5日上海黄金现货价格报价951.61元/克，相较于期货主力价格(961.04元/克)贴水9.43元/ 克。 国投期货：隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低，缓解 劳动力市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属 ...

基本面来看，供应相对稳定，济源、湖南等地区散单货源有限，支撑了现货价格的相对坚挺。需求端来 看，下游铅酸蓄电池企业开工率仍维持在70-75%的水平，市场低价接货积极性尚可。此外，导致上海 期货交易所的铅锭仓单库存持续下滑。当前仓单库存已不足2万吨，处于近一年来的最低水平，去库对 铅价有一定提振。市场铅锭社会库存预计整体仍处相对低位，结构性支撑依然存在。此外，以往临近中 旬交割周期，资金层面存在惯性拉涨意愿，或进一步助推盘面走强。 本月上旬，伦铅价格表现强势，持续走高，于月中最高运行至2097美元/吨，创下自2025年4月以来的最 高水平。在此强劲带动下，国内铅价同步走强。与此同时，国内市场需求尚可，叠加散单货源供应紧张 的市场结构，共同推升了国内铅价。 进入下旬，市场关注焦点转向美联储货币政策动向。由于降息预期存在较大不确定性，投资者风险偏好 趋于谨慎，市场整体情绪逐渐转向偏空。部分前期参与资金为规避风险选择陆续离场，导致市场支撑力 度减弱。受此影响，国内铅价承压回调，呈现震荡下行态势，下旬整体走势较上旬明显转弱。 12月来看，多空因素交织，预计铅价或先涨后跌。 有利因素： 宏观面：美联储内部对12月FOMC ...

【白银期货行情表现】12月5日，沪银主力暂报13687元/千克，涨幅0.45%，今日沪银主力开盘价13382 元/千克，截至目前最高13750元/千克，最低13232元/千克。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 周四公布的数据显示，上周美国初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，是逾三年来最低，远低于经济学家预期 的22万人。该数据降低了市场对美国劳动市场恶化的担忧，但并未改变市场对下周美联储降息的预期。 投资者目前正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月PCE物价指数报告，这是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。北 京时间周五23:00，美国经济分析局将公布9月份个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数，势必会引发金融市场的 剧烈波动。 金瑞期货：白银方面，目前现货紧张，进一步推动了银价的偏强。且中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国家 赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银长期供需矛盾导致的缺货也未 改变，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健，短期调整不改长期趋势，且下方空间相对有限。 Comex白银运行区间54-60美元/盎司，沪银运行区间12600-13000元/千克。 大越期货：供应短缺博弈明显降温，银价从高位回落，但12月美 ...

Market Performance - On December 4, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declining, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices experienced slight increases. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index recorded an increase on the same day [1]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, with indications that a 25 basis point cut may be implemented in the upcoming meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is nearing 90% according to the CME monitoring tool [3]. - There is greater uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for 2026, with some analysts suggesting that multiple policy factors could lead to accelerated economic growth in the U.S. by that year [3]. Gold Market Outlook - On December 5, gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range as market sentiment turned cautious ahead of key inflation data releases. If the data indicates easing inflationary pressures, it could provide upward momentum for gold prices [3]. - The latest employment data has exceeded expectations, alleviating some concerns regarding the labor market [3]. - Looking ahead to 2026, gold prices will continue to be influenced by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with expectations of maintaining a range-bound trading pattern. However, the actual trajectory will depend on economic growth, interest rate changes, and policy effectiveness, with potential outcomes ranging from moderate increases to significant strength, as well as the possibility of pressure from unexpected economic growth and rising interest rates [3].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...