证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 宏观经济宏观月报 4 月"抢出口"强化生产韧性，内需有所走弱 2025 年 5 月 19 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 4 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、4 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，比 3 月份回落 1.6 个百分 点； 2、4 月份，社会消费品零售总额 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，比 3 月份回 落 0.8 个百分点； 3、4 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）147024 亿元，同比增长 4.0%， 比 3 月回落 0.2 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资增长 8.0%； 4、4 月份，进出口总额 38391 亿元，同比增长 5.6%。其中，出口 22645 亿 元，增长 9.3%；进口 15745 亿元，增长 0.8%； 5、4 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.1%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，较上 年同月高 0.1 个百分点。 4 月国内经济增速约 5.1%，仍高于全年经济增速目标值。 整体来看，4 月中国经济维持稳定增长态势。4 月由于中美关税战急剧升温， 因此出现了通过转口贸易的"抢 ...

Group 1 - The recent easing of tensions in US-China trade relations has led to a significant drop in gold prices, while global stock markets have surged dramatically [1] - The upcoming week features several key economic events that could impact market movements, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the Australian interest rate decision [3][4] - The oil market will see important data releases, including the EIA crude oil inventory report, which is expected to influence oil prices and related currencies [5][6] Group 2 - The focus for the week will be on employment data from the US, which traditionally has a strong influence on the dollar and gold prices [6] - Despite a lighter economic calendar, the potential for volatility remains high due to central bank communications and energy inventory reports [7]

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant adjustments, with a shift towards a diversified system amid increasing geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Current global cooperation is in a "consensus deficit phase," with challenges in negotiation mechanisms and an overall pessimistic outlook for future collaboration [2][3] - The U.S.-China trade conflict is a critical element, with long-term implications for global trade dynamics, as China seeks to promote inclusivity through initiatives like the Belt and Road [2][3] Group 2 - China is transitioning from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic consumption, marking a key phase in its economic transformation [2][3] - High household savings rates in China are attributed to insufficient social security systems, prompting the government to implement policies aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending [3] - The U.S. dollar remains a dominant global reserve currency and a "safe haven" asset, despite recent challenges, with calls for optimizing global liquidity mechanisms rather than suppressing other currencies [4] Group 3 - The need for international cooperation is emphasized, as geopolitical factors such as regulation and sanctions must be considered in global investment strategies [4] - The global economic governance is at a crossroads, with the necessity to move beyond zero-sum games in both China's domestic demand transformation and the optimization of the dollar system [4]

China and the US both lowered the "reciprocal" tariff rates significantly and agreed to continue discussions and negotiations (see our earlier report), possibly with the framework of Phase One Deal as the starting point. We estimate that the weighted average incremental US tariff rate on Chinese goods in 2025 YTD is around 30% (ad valorem, vs 96% before the de-escalation), which is still very damaging for China's exports and growth. There is still significant uncertainty around future US-China negotiations, ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. has brought renewed hope to businesses in Yiwu, particularly those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. market, which had been severely impacted by the previous high tariffs [1][17]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Yiwu Businesses - Yiwu merchants experienced significant disruptions due to the U.S. tariffs, which escalated to 145%, leading to halted operations and unsold inventory [3][5][6]. - High tariffs particularly affected businesses like Gao Zhi's baseball cap factory, where U.S. orders accounted for 40%-50% of sales, making it unfeasible to operate under such conditions [6][8]. - The Yiwu market, known for its diverse export destinations, has shown resilience, with some merchants adapting by exploring new markets and products [2][12]. Group 2: Business Adaptation Strategies - Merchants in Yiwu are increasingly diversifying their markets, learning new languages, and seeking opportunities in emerging markets to mitigate risks associated with reliance on the U.S. [2][13]. - Some businesses, like Nie Ziqin's, are pivoting to domestic sales and exploring new product lines to cope with the downturn in international orders [7][10]. - The Yiwu Index, a measure of market trends, reflects the adaptability of local merchants who are accustomed to navigating global uncertainties [11][12]. Group 3: Recovery and Future Outlook - Following the announcement of the tariff suspension, Yiwu merchants quickly resumed operations, with many preparing to ship previously stalled orders [17][18]. - The temporary 90-day window for tariff suspension is seen as a critical period for businesses to recover and fulfill outstanding orders, particularly for seasonal products like Halloween masks [15][18]. - Merchants are optimistic about the future, believing that the high tariffs will not last long and that demand will eventually return to normal levels [14][17].

Group 1: Market Overview - The PVC market has been experiencing a downward trend since April, with prices in East China dropping to 4730 yuan per ton as of May 8, a decrease of 140 yuan or 2.87% from April 1 [1] - Supply expectations are increasing due to limited maintenance during the conventional repair season and the introduction of new production capacities [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The maintenance period for PVC production is expected to last from April to August, with production rates increasing post-holiday [2] - PVC production is projected to reach 474,000 tons during the period from May 3 to 9, reflecting a 2.4% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Planned maintenance capacity in April was approximately 5.7 million tons, which is a 20.94% decrease compared to the previous two years, limiting effective supply reduction [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Domestic demand for PVC is supported by stimulus policies in the real estate market, but overall demand remains weak due to uncertainties from the US-China trade disputes [3] - The construction and renovation sectors are expected to drive traditional PVC demand, but low operating rates in PVC pipe and profile enterprises indicate weak internal demand [3] - India, as the largest export destination for Chinese PVC, poses risks due to anti-dumping policies, potentially affecting over 700,000 tons of PVC consumption [3] Group 4: Cost Considerations - The domestic PVC production primarily uses the calcium carbide method, but the proportion of ethylene-based PVC is gradually increasing, reaching 27.91% as of April [4] - The reliance on imported ethane for ethylene production could lead to increased costs if tariffs are imposed, potentially pushing production costs above the breakeven point [4][5] - The impact of US-China trade tensions may raise the cost of imported ethane, affecting coastal ethylene projects, although the overall effect on PVC powder may be limited due to diverse raw material sources [5]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Impact - The China-U.S. trade relationship has shown signs of easing, but the future direction remains uncertain[3] - Industries with low revenue profit margins and high export exposure, such as textiles and furniture, will be significantly impacted by a 30% tariff[6] - High-margin industries with low export exposure, like pharmaceuticals and beverages, will experience limited impact from tariffs[6] Group 2: Identifying Strong Alpha Products - Strong alpha products can be identified through three perspectives: import/export dependency, resilience during previous trade tensions, and high re-export rates[3] - Traditional labor-intensive products, such as textiles and toys, maintain a global supply advantage[3] - Mid-range manufacturing products, like home appliances and electrical machinery, can mitigate trade friction effects through re-export strategies[3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Resilience - During the 2018-2019 trade tensions, certain products, including ships and integrated circuits, showed resilience and even market share growth[9] - Re-export trade through countries like Vietnam and Mexico has played a crucial role in buffering the impact of tariffs[10] - Products with high U.S. import dependency and strong global supply advantages are less affected by U.S. tariff policies[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - Historical data extrapolation may lead to inaccuracies in predicting future impacts[11] - Unexpected changes in U.S. tariff policies could significantly alter market dynamics[11] - Increased scrutiny on origin verification may affect China's re-export capabilities[11]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a decline across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.68% to 3380.82 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 1.37%, the ChiNext Index down by 1.77%, the STAR 50 Index down by 1.26%, and the Northbound 50 Index down by 0.38% [1] - The beauty and personal care sector led the gains, while sectors such as software development, internet services, power equipment, semiconductors, diversified finance, and securities saw relatively larger declines [1] International Market Context - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones slightly down, the S&P 500 nearly flat, and the Nasdaq up by 0.72%, marking three consecutive days of significant gains for the Nasdaq [1] - Following the U.S.-China tariff agreement, U.S. stocks surged initially, but only the Nasdaq maintained strong performance, while blue-chip stocks in the Dow and S&P 500 remained relatively weak due to recent positive news for tech stocks [1] - Hong Kong stocks also retreated, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.79% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.56% [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations, dipping before recovering, but saw a decline again during the Asian and European trading sessions [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate stabilized around 7.2080 after a depreciation on Wednesday [1] Trade Relations and Market Outlook - The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on international financial markets appears to have subsided, but investor confidence remains cautious, contributing to the stock market's loss of upward momentum [2] - The likelihood of significant upward or downward movements in A-shares is low, with a balanced oscillation pattern expected to prevail [2] - Current macroeconomic policies in China are anticipated to offset external pressures, leading to limited volatility in the stock market [2]

Group 1 - Over 50% of surveyed investors believe that China is currently a global leader in artificial intelligence, and 60% expect significant progress in the biopharmaceutical sector over the next decade [1] - The investor sentiment survey conducted by Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business indicates that nearly 50% of respondents view the long-term impact of US-China trade tensions as more of an opportunity than a challenge [1][2] - Approximately 63.6% of investors consider US-China relations a major factor influencing investments, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that 58.2% of investors believe enhancing domestic demand is a significant factor affecting future investments, driven by external challenges prompting internal economic adjustments [3] - Confidence in China's leading position in key technology sectors is noted, with expectations for increased growth despite short-term valuation impacts on listed tech companies [3] - About 44.5% of investors regard the status of the private economy as important for future investment decisions, with a call for greater support and equal standing for private enterprises alongside state-owned ones [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.79% to close at 23,453.16 points, and a total trading volume of 200.2 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.56%, indicating a negative trend in technology stocks [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - NetEase (09999) saw a 1.2% increase in share price, closing at 168.1 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.22 billion HKD, contributing 2.28 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - NetEase reported Q1 net revenue of 28.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and a net profit of 10.3 billion RMB, up from 7.63 billion RMB in the previous year [2] Sector Performance Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector continued its downward trend, with notable declines in stocks such as 康特隆 (01912) down 6.74% and 中芯国际 (00981) down 3.4% [3] - 信达证券 noted that while Q1 performance for 中芯国际 and 华虹半导体 showed volatility, downstream demand is gradually recovering [3] Gold Stocks - Gold stocks were negatively impacted by falling international gold prices, with 潼关黄金 (00340) down 5.34% and 赤峰黄金 (06693) down 2.61% [4] - Recent geopolitical developments have reduced the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to price volatility [4] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector showed mixed results, with 招商局港口 (00144) up 3.81% while 中远海能 (01138) fell by 2.04% [6] - A significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. was reported, indicating potential growth in shipping volumes [6] Notable Stock Movements - 微盟集团 (02013) surged by 19.3% amid market speculation regarding Tencent's organizational changes to enhance its e-commerce capabilities [7] - 中烟香港 (06055) reached a historical high, increasing by 8.64% due to its strategic agreements to expand its product offerings [8] - 微创机器人-B (02252) fell by 4.84% following a share placement announcement, indicating market reaction to capital raising activities [9] - 伟易达 (00303) experienced a significant drop of 8.25% after reporting disappointing annual results, with a revenue of 2.177 billion USD, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [10]