交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月11日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡偏弱，伴随盘面走低，聚酯工厂后点价增多，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚 酯工厂补货。12月中主港货在01贴水25附近商谈成交，12月下主港在01-20附近成交，个别货源价格略低，价格商谈区间在 4595~4625。今日主流现货基差在01-25。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 2、基差：现货4612，01合约基差-4，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

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交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回调，价格回到20均线以下，20均线上下震荡。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减 轻。产业链上，印尼招标落地，镍矿价格小幅回落，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨， 预期供应宽松。镍铁价格稳中有小幅下降，成本线有所止跌启稳。不锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持 续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货120350，基差3000，偏多 3、库存：LME库存252528，-816，上交所仓单34361，-139，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20251210: Range-bound after Recovery" [1] 2. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 3. Core Views - **Nickel**: As of December 9, 2025, the nickel market has a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. After the price recovered from a low level, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 9, 2025, the stainless - steel market has a loose fundamental situation. Although the cost side has stabilized, stainless - steel prices are expected to trade in a low - level range. The recommended trading strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities [2]. 4. Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 9, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 830 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,410 lots, a decrease of 22,103 lots, and the open interest was 107,986 lots, a decrease of 3,599 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 34,500 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased, with registered and注销仓单 changes [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 119,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The prices of other nickel products also showed different trends [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 9, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed different changes. The futures near - month contract closed at 12,265 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 69,080 lots, a decrease of 32,560 lots, and the open interest was 78,164 lots, a decrease of 7,521 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 61,556 tons, and the 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory decreased to 620,400 tons [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other stainless - steel products also had some changes [2]. 5. Industry News - As of December 8, 2025, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force (Satgas PKH2) has imposed administrative fines of 38.9 trillion Indonesian rupiah on 71 palm oil and mining companies for illegal occupation of forest land. Mining companies were fined 29.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.75 billion). Some penalized mining companies may be nickel - related, but the list is not yet released [2].

周二，BMD棕榈油上涨，受逢低买盘提振，但周边市场疲软限制了涨幅。今日MPOB报告将发布。机 构预计马棕油11月库存或攀升至266万吨，六年半高位。此外，市场也在关注10日发布的出口销售报 告，以评估12月的累库预期。国内方面，油脂价格集体走弱，菜籽油跌幅超过豆油和棕榈油。周四国储 豆拍卖，关注成交情况和拍卖结果。澳洲菜籽检验结果没有公布，但市场预期检验顺利，即将流入商业 领域压榨。相比之下，棕榈油变化不大，12月买船不多，下游需求变化也不多。策略上，卖看涨期权， 期货短线参与。 生猪： 周二，生猪期价延续反弹。生猪主力2603合约领涨，远期合约价格跟涨，期价延续偏强表现。现货市场 方面，因冬季猪病增加，元旦至春节前养殖亏损的预期会加重生猪去产能的预期，远期猪价获得支撑。 现货市场中，猪价稳定为主，多地猪价涨跌互现。今日全国外三元生猪出栏均价报11.23元/公斤，较昨 日上涨0.05元/公斤，其中新疆保持全国最低价10.54元/公斤，广东则升至最高价12.41元/公斤。 全国标 猪价格为11.23元/公斤，肥猪价格为11.76元/公斤，标肥价差为-0.53元/公斤。技术上，生猪远期合约在 供需预期改善和看涨情 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and oils are on a downward trend, while live pigs are rebounding. Eggs are falling, sugar is rebounding from a low level, and cotton is fluctuating narrowly [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 continues to decline due to the weak performance of US soybeans and high domestic inventories. From January to November 2025, China's soybean imports reached 1.0379 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, and the inventory has rebounded to around 1.2 million tons. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short at resistance levels [1][2]. Oils - The three major oil main contracts 2605 are all falling. The market expects the end - of - November palm oil inventory in Malaysia to surge 7.78% month - on - month to a 6.5 - year high, and crude oil has tumbled. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is sufficient. The palm oil main contract 2605 has entered a downward trend technically, and short - term operations are recommended before the release of the MPOB report [1][3]. Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 continues to rebound. A new cold wave is expected to increase transportation costs and boost consumption such as southern curing and northern sausage - making. The technical chart shows an upward trend, and the strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 11335 [1][5]. Eggs - The egg main contracts 2601 and 2602 are both falling, with the 2602 contract having a larger decline. The high egg - laying hen inventory and the uncertain de - capacity are pressuring the prices. The technical chart shows a downward trend, and the strategy is to lightly short, with the resistance level of the 2601 contract at 3134 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2601 rebounds from a low level. Although the year - end consumption demand may improve, the seasonal supply pressure is still large. The cost of production provides some support, and the strategy is to hold short positions [9]. Cotton - The cotton main contract 2601 fluctuates narrowly. The high sales rate in Xinjiang supports the price, but the commercial inventory is increasing. As of December 5, the cotton commercial total inventory was 4.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly, with a large increase in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will generally fluctuate strongly, while US cotton is likely to fluctuate within a certain range [6][8] Group 3: Summary of Each Section First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,740 with a decrease of 10, and its trading volume was 158,053 hands with a decrease of 6,312 [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided. For instance, the CCIndex3128B was priced at 14,999 yuan/ton with a decrease of 23 [2] - **Price Spreads**: Different types of price spreads are listed, including cotton inter - period spreads, cotton yarn inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month cotton inter - period spread was 15 with a decrease of 10 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21% [4] - As of December 2, 2025, the planting progress of the 2025/26 cotton season in Brazil was 5.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [4] - As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower than the same period last year [5] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be less than previously anticipated. The market has entered a relatively off - peak season after the peak season, but the previous negative factors have already been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period of previous years, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6] Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market remains light, mainly with rigid demand transactions. Except for high - count yarn, the sales of low - count yarn in some spinning mills have slightly improved. Affected by the support of Zhengzhou cotton futures, the number of low - price products has decreased recently, but the overall trading center has not changed significantly. Due to the high inventory of finished products in downstream weaving mills, the replenishment demand is not obvious, and it is expected that spinning mills will continue to operate under pressure in the short term [10] - The sales of all - cotton grey cloth are still weak, the inventory of all - cotton weaving mills is accumulating, and the operating rate of weaving mills is stable. The overall market improvement is not obvious, and the main focus is on inventory digestion. The high - count and high - density varieties that were sold smoothly in previous years are selling averagely recently, and the inventory of weaving mills has not decreased significantly [10] Third Part: Options - The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other indicators of several cotton option contracts are presented. For example, on November 24, 2025, the CF601C13400.CZC option contract closed at 183.00 with a price increase of 71.0% [12] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12] - The PCR values of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed that the trading volume of both call and put options decreased today [13] - Option trading strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the price spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [16][19][23][24]

镍与不锈钢日评20251209:修复后区间震荡 | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-01 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-08 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117460.00 | 280.00 | 117730.00 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 118030.00 | 117790.00 | 240.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 117850.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 118200.00 | 117950.00 | 118060.00 | 250.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 190.00 | 收盘价 | 118390.00 | 118200.00 | 118240.00 | 118030.00 | 240.00 | 收盘价 | 117790.00 | 117850.00 | | | | | | m | 上海期镍 | 成 ...

2025 年 12 月 09 日 尿素：仓单增量明显，弱势运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,646 | 1,673 | -27 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,651 | 1,682 | -31 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 216,711 | 110,200 | 106511 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 167,074 | 200,353 | -33279 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 11,526 | 10,485 | 1041 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 715,690 | 370,685 | 345005 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | 4 4 | 4 7 | - 3 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -86 | -113 | 2 7 | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.1万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为423元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为638.38元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月08日，华东不通氧现货价9300元/吨，01合约基差为625元/吨，现货升 水期货。 ...