Core Insights - Copper prices have increased amid escalating trade tensions, raising questions about the supply-demand expectations and price trends in the metal market [1] Group 1 - The rise in copper prices is attributed to heightened trade tensions, which have implications for the overall metal market [1] - The market is currently assessing how supply and demand dynamics will evolve in response to these trade issues [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the potential impact of these developments on future price movements in the metal sector [1]

本周为节后首周，订单成交数量有限，价格暂时维持稳定。 n型复投料成交价格区间为3.60- 3.80万元/吨，成交均价为3.75万元/吨，环比持平。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.40-3.50万元/ 吨，成交均价为3.45万元/吨，环比持平。p型多晶硅成交价格区间为3.00-3.30万元/吨，成交均 价为3.13万元/吨，环比持平。 由于端午休假影响，本周大多数订单还未落地，目前仅 3-4家企业有新签订单。根据企业反 馈，近期已签订订单价格暂时保持稳定，数量较少。下游后续仍有一定的硅料采购需求，因此价格 还要根据新一轮签单情况决定，预期下降空间已极为有限。本月终端抢装已经正式结束，目前下游 拉晶厂采购硅料压价力度仍然较强，企业挺价难度加剧，若价格出现进一步下跌，预计会有更多企 业加速实施停产检修策略，积极应对极端市场行情。 截至目前，多晶硅在产企业数量为 11家，基本全部处于降负荷运作状态。2025年5月，我国 多晶硅产量为10.16万吨，环比上涨2.52%。本月多晶硅企业将进行产能置换，部分基地或产生一 定产量增量，整体来看当月供应基本维持稳定，预计在三季度月度供应量将逐渐开始下降，供需关 系逐渐缓和，市场有望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry chain prices weakened overall in May, with a potential continuation of the downward trend into June due to seasonal demand weakness, loosening cost support, and macroeconomic pressures [1] Demand Factors - Domestic steel demand is weak as the industry enters a traditional construction off-season, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance despite high iron water production and acceptable steel mill profits [1] - Steel exports have declined, contributing to the overall weak demand [1] Cost Factors - Iron ore prices have decreased, and coal and coke prices continue to fall, resulting in reduced cost support for steel production [1] - The cost decline is more pronounced in raw materials compared to finished steel products, with coke prices showing a year-on-year decline but only a slight month-on-month decrease [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods has created a negative impact, although recent talks have led to some consensus without sufficient positive support for the market [1] Production and Profitability - The average profit margin in the steel industry chain has improved year-on-year, although some segments have seen a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rates for raw material enterprises have generally increased, while iron ore production has significantly decreased year-on-year due to capacity constraints [1] Outlook for June - Steel industry chain prices are expected to continue declining in June, influenced by macroeconomic weakening, potential further declines in raw material prices, and a lack of upward drivers in the market [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with risks from seasonal demand and declining exports, leading to increased uncertainty [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-06-04 供需偏弱，新能源金属价格维持弱势 新能源观点：供需偏弱，新能源⾦属价格维持弱势 交易逻辑：新能源金属价格跌跌不休，供应阶段性小幅收缩，但新能 源金属供需并未出现明显好转，偏过剩格局还在延续，若扭转当前颓 势，我们必须得看到供应端明显收缩才行，密切关注产业动态。中短 期来看，新能源金属价格走势偏弱，谨慎参与为宜，稳健的投资者可 继续通过宽跨式期权押注波动；中长期来看，低价或有望进一步加快 国内自主定价品种的产能出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅等。 ⼯业硅观点：丰⽔期供增需弱，硅价承压下⾏。 多晶硅观点：多空博弈加剧，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：矿价⽀撑继续下移，锂价承压运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 李苏横 从业资格号：F03093505 投资咨询号：Z0017197 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 ...

期货热点追踪 大商所铁矿石期货止跌回升，但季节性需求转淡预期限制涨幅，未来价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that palm oil futures prices are declining, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise for the third consecutive month in May, suggesting a shift in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the anticipated increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory, which may impact future pricing and market conditions [1] - It raises questions about how the supply-demand balance will evolve and what implications this may have for price trends in the palm oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese rubber futures have experienced six consecutive declines due to increased supply and market concerns, with institutions predicting a continued weak price trend in the short term [1] Industry Summary - The rubber market is facing dual pressures from rising supply levels and market apprehensions, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [1] - Institutions are forecasting that the downward trend in rubber prices is likely to persist in the near future [1]

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper prices increased by 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton, while SHFE copper rose by 0.5% to ¥78,180 per ton, with the domestic import window closed [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The current copper price is facing a directional choice, with resistance observed in the ¥78,000 - ¥80,000 per ton range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market - LME nickel prices fell by 0.23% to $15,475 per ton, while SHFE nickel rose by 0.25% to ¥121,860 per ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons [1] - Nickel prices may experience short-term recovery but are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand [1] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2509 closing at ¥3,036 per ton, up 1.27% [1] - SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2507 closing at ¥19,990 per ton, up 0.25% [1] - The supply and demand for alumina are both increasing, with support from the mining sector, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains under pressure [1] Group 4: Silicon Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, polysilicon prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,360 per ton, down 2.65% [1] - Industrial silicon prices also declined, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,070 per ton, down 1.39% [1] - The reduction in electricity prices during the southwest flood season is leading to production resumption, while downstream procurement is decreasing [1] Group 5: Lithium Market - Carbonate lithium futures for contract 2507 increased by 0.33% to ¥59,940 per ton, while spot prices decreased and warehouse receipts fell by 60 tons [1] - Lithium ore prices are declining with increased supply, while demand from the positive electrode production is average but terminal sales are strong [1] - The fundamentals appear bearish, but price volatility is heightened due to capital market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acrylic acid market has rebounded since mid-May, with prices reaching a new high of 7966.67 yuan per ton by May 28, driven by supply tightening and increased demand, although the momentum may not be sustainable post-holiday [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The acrylic acid market has shown a W-shaped trend in 2023, with two rounds of recovery leading to the recent peak, with prices nearing the 10,000 yuan mark [2]. - The first round of recovery occurred from early March to early April, where prices fell to a low of 7333.33 yuan due to new production capacity in Shandong, followed by a rebound to around 7833 yuan [2][3]. - The second round of recovery took place from April to May, with prices rising again after a period of weakness, reaching 7966.67 yuan [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price increase is attributed to concentrated maintenance of production facilities and downstream replenishment demand, particularly in Shandong, where several key plants are undergoing repairs [4]. - Despite some plants resuming production, the supply remains tight, leading to increased bullish sentiment among suppliers and traders [4]. - Downstream demand has also contributed to price support, as small factories are concerned about future price trends and are increasing their inquiries [4]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to face a shift in supply-demand dynamics post-Duanwu Festival, with a potential decrease in replenishment activities and a gradual increase in supply from previously offline facilities [5][6]. - There is a growing observation that the overall purchasing volume for acrylic acid and its derivatives may decline, leading to a more cautious market sentiment [5][6]. - Without significant positive factors, acrylic acid prices are likely to experience a narrow decline from the recent highs [6].

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着旺季临近，动力煤利多因素开始积蓄，市场僵持博弈，价格暂稳运行。一方面， 国内煤价处在国际低洼，外贸煤进口性价比较 2024 年显著走低，引发进口量下滑。另一方面，随 着 6 月到来，我国将进入迎峰度夏关键时期，同时终端电厂仍有一定的旺季补库需求，对市场情 绪起到少许支撑。不过，动力煤中长期供需宽松的整体格局依然未变，且当前港口库存处于近五 年同期高位，今夏煤价旺季不旺的可能性依然较高。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 宝城期货投资 ...