1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with semiconductor stocks performing strongly. However, the four major stock index futures contracts declined, and it is expected that the market will enter a high - level shock to wait for the decision of the direction. [2][3][4] - The sentiment in the bond market is fragile, and the performance of treasury bond futures was weak in the afternoon, affected by the stock market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [5][6] - For precious metals, due to the divergence among Fed officials and political pressure on some officials, investors' concerns have reignited, and precious metals prices rebounded. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [8][9][10] - The container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are mainly in a state of shock, affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory levels. [14][17][22] - The steel market maintains a shock pattern, with the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil showing differentiation. Iron ore and coking coal prices will follow the trend of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [41][43][46] - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, while the prices of live pigs are affected by factors such as consumption and the epidemic, and the corn market is under supply pressure and shows a weak trend. [54][56][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market opened low and rose high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04%. The four major stock index futures contracts declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated neutrally. [2][3] - **News**: In July, China's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, and overseas news mainly involved the US's stance on Ukraine and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs. [3][4] - **Funding**: On August 20, the trading volume of A - shares decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions. [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. [5] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity became balanced in the afternoon. [5][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **News**: The US and China had a good dialogue on economic and trade issues. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and there were political incidents involving Fed officials. [7][8] - **Market Performance**: Precious metals prices rebounded after a decline, with international gold rising 0.99% and international silver rising 1.41%. [9] - **Outlook and Suggestion**: There is still a demand for hedging in the market. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows a decline in the European line index and an increase in the US - West line index. [12] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US is at a certain level. [12] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The spot price is in a downward phase, which may put pressure on the futures price. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the actual transaction was limited. [14] - **Macro**: The short - term trading focus is on the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the US inflation data affects the expectation. [14][17] - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrates increased slightly, and the production of refined copper increased in July. It is expected to decrease slightly in August. [15] - **Demand**: The operating rate of copper rod processing showed a mixed trend, and the overall demand was resilient. [16] - **Inventory**: COMEX and domestic social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased. [16] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The copper price is mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract reference range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. [17] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The spot price showed a north - south differentiation, with the north under pressure and the south supported. [17] - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in July, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. [18] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased. [18] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The market is in a state of slight surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: The average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium increased. [20] - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased. [20] - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly, but it is still in the off - season. [20] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. [21] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [22] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged. [23] - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased in July, and it is expected to remain stable in August. [23] - **Demand**: The demand was under pressure in July, and it is expected to improve marginally in late August. [23][24] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased. [23] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference range is 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. [24] Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was general. [25] - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increased in July. [26] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the spot premium was weak. [27] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased. [28] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [28] Tin - **Spot**: The price of 1 tin increased, and the market transaction was dull. [29] - **Supply**: The import of tin ore decreased in July, and the supply is difficult to improve in the short - term. [29] - **Demand**: The demand for solder decreased, and the overall demand is expected to be weak. [30] - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and social inventory decreased. [30] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The tin price is in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [31] Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel decreased. [31] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly. [32] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was general. [32] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. [32] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel price is expected to adjust in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [33] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased. [34][35] - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferro - nickel were stable, and the price of ferro - chrome was expected to be strong. [35][37] - **Supply**: The planned production of stainless steel in August is expected to increase. [35] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt increased. [36] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. [37] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the transaction improved after the price decline. [38] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased in July and is expected to increase in August. [39] - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. [39] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week. [40] - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see and try to go long at low prices. [41] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis strengthened. [41] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support is expected to weaken, and the profit of steel products decreased. [42] - **Supply**: The production of iron and steel increased in August, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in August - September. [42] - **Demand**: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, but the demand for rebar decreased this period. [42] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased this week. [43] - **View**: The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [43] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders showed a mixed trend. [45] - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased. [45] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is provided. [45] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. [45] - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume decreased. [45] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased. [46] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to follow the rebound of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [46] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price declined, and the prices of some coal types were loosened. [47] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines showed a mixed trend, and the inventory adjustment slowed down. [47][48] - **Demand**: The coking production increased slightly, and the downstream demand for replenishment weakened. [48][49] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased. [49] - **View**: It is recommended to buy at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [49] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price declined, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented, with the seventh - round initiated. [50][51] - **Profit**: The coking profit improved. [50] - **Supply**: The coking production increased slightly. [50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for coke remained resilient, and the pig iron output is expected to decline slightly in August. [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coke decreased. [51] - **View**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [51][53] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal were stable to weak, and the prices of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [54] - **Fundamentals**: There were export sales reports of US soybeans, and the export volume forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal increased. [54][55] - **Market Outlook**: The long - term outlook for meal products is positive, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [55][56] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated, and the market sentiment improved. [57] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding showed a mixed trend, and the average slaughter weight increased. [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty in the far - end market. [59] Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn was generally weak, and the trading was light. [60] - **Fundamentals**: The inventories of corn in Guangdong Port and northern four ports decreased. [60][61] - **Market Outlook**: The corn market is under supply pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile. [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends. Some are expected to be in short - term shock, some may rebound in the long - term, and some are expected to be weak in the short - term and improve later [1][3][4]. - The supply and demand relationship is the main factor affecting the price trends of commodities, including factors such as production, inventory, and market demand [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The demand for coking coal has support due to the profit repair of coking enterprises and high pig iron output. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Coking Coal Data**: 314 independent coal washing plants have a capacity utilization rate of 36.1% (down 0.46% month - on - month), a daily refined coal output of 25.7 tons (down 0.7 tons month - on - month), and a refined coal inventory of 294.8 tons (down 2.2 tons month - on - month) [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high - level production, stable downstream demand, and increasing port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 2385. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Methanol Data**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2305 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton), the port inventory is 107.6 tons (up 5.42 tons week - on - week), the production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons (up 1.52 tons week - on - week), and the order backlog is 20.74 tons (down 1.2 tons week - on - week) [1]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has support, and the downstream demand is resilient. However, production is increasing, and there is an over - capacity problem. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term outlook is not optimistic [5]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Data**: The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is 34.32% (up 0.56% week - on - week), and the daily output is 15590 tons (up 4.45% week - on - week, an increase of 665 tons) [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with pressure at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [7]. - **Soda Ash Data**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1319 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week), and the manufacturer's total inventory is 189.38 tons (up 1.54% week - on - week) [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The supply of polypropylene is abundant, and the market price is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 7000. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. - **Polypropylene Data**: The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6997 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate is 78.41% (down 0.13% day - on - day), and the commercial inventory is 80.06 tons (down 2.68 tons week - on - week) [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of domestic soybeans will be weakly stable in the short - term [6]. - **Soybeans Data**: The expected soybean crushing volume in August is nearly 10 million tons, and the expected output of soybean meal is about 8 million tons, higher than the average monthly consumption in August in the past three years [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from August 1 - 20 increased significantly. It is expected that the price of palm oil will be strongly shocked at a high level in the short - term [6]. - **Palm Oil Data**: According to Amspec, the export volume from August 1 - 20 is 869780 tons (up 17.48% month - on - month); according to ITS, it is 929051 tons (up 13.61% month - on - month) [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The national pig price is adjusted strongly, and the market supply and demand are in a stalemate. The LH2511 contract has support at 13700. Farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [3]. - **Live Pigs Data**: On August 20, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.04 yuan/kg (down 0.8% from the previous day), and the price of eggs is 7.62 yuan/kg (down 1.4% from the previous day) [3]. Metals - **Rebar**: The steel price may be in a weak shock in the short - term. As the northern region implements production - restriction measures, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market will be relieved, and the steel price is expected to stop falling and rebound [4]. - **Rebar Data**: On August 20, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities in the country is 3338 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day) [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although it is predicted that the supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market will increase, the current inventory has decreased significantly, providing an atmosphere for the oil price to rebound. Conservative traders can wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil Data**: The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a decrease of 1.41%), and the gasoline inventory decreased by 2.72 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day on August 15 [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The supply of rubber is stable, and the social inventory has little change. The demand side lacks driving force. It is recommended to use the range - shock thinking [11]. - **Rubber Data**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory increased by 7500 tons to 1.285 million tons (an increase of 0.6%), among which the dark - colored rubber inventory is 806,000 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week), and the light - colored rubber inventory is 479,000 tons (down 0.4% week - on - week) [11]. - **Gold**: The geopolitical situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has eased, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Gold has a short - term rebound demand but is still in a weak shock in the medium - term [8]. - **Silver**: The upward momentum of the U.S. dollar index has weakened, which is beneficial to precious metals. The silver market is expected to be in a long - term shock. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term funds in the bond market are tight, and the shock attribute of treasury bonds is strengthened. It is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [9]. - **Treasury Bonds Data**: Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose. The overnight variety rose 0.9BP to 1.473%, the 7 - day variety rose 1.7BP to 1.534%, the 14 - day variety fell 0.3BP to 1.596%, and the 1 - month variety rose 0.4BP to 1.532% [9]. - **PTA**: PTA has short - term support but weak mid - term expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PTA Data**: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 16 - 26 days [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies. China may resume urea exports to India, opening an incremental market window. The policy requires concentrated exports by the end of September, overlapping with the domestic autumn storage period and creating demand resonance. The short - term market is likely to fluctuate strongly, and future attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance on daily production, changes in rigid and reserve demand, and export port collection [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Domestic PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation in August is expected to weaken marginally. However, due to the traditional peak demand season and new PTA device commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. It is expected that PX prices will be supported at low levels, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [4]. - **PTA**: In August, due to low processing margins, PTA device maintenance plans increased, and short - term basis was supported. However, with the commissioning of new devices, the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the upward space for the basis is limited. In the short term, there is still some support, and it is recommended to treat TA as a short - term range of 4600 - 4800 and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high levels [4]. - **MEG**: Domestic coal - based MEG supply has increased, and overseas supply is expected to change. In August, the supply - demand is near balance, and it is expected to fluctuate with commodities. It is recommended that EG01 fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4500 in the short term [4]. - **Short - fiber**: Both supply and demand have increased slightly. With the approaching of the peak demand season, there is some support for prices, but the cost - side drive is limited. It is recommended that PF10 fluctuate in the range of 6300 - 6500 in the short term, and the processing margin on the futures market fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100 [4]. - **Bottle - chip**: During the peak consumption season in August, with device production cuts, the processing margin has support at the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost - side. It is recommended that PR is similar to PTA in terms of unilateral trading, and the main - contract processing margin on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and go long on the processing margin at low levels in the short term [4]. Methanol - The current methanol market has a relatively high port inventory year - on - year, mainly due to a large amount of imports in August, and imports in September are still expected to exceed 1.4 million tons. The demand side is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak, while MTO profits have improved. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of a port MTO device at the end of August to early September. The 09 contract has accumulated a large amount of inventory, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - restriction expectations [7][8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The overall sentiment in the industrial product futures market has weakened. The caustic soda market rebounded previously and then fell back. The spot market trading is okay, and the spot price is generally stable. The demand has been good recently, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the future, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas also has a negative impact. It is recommended to try short - selling [14]. - **PVC**: The supply side has new production capacity being put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The demand is difficult to improve, and the downstream industry is still in the off - season. It is recommended to be bearish [14]. Polyolefin - Static analysis shows that the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weak, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Dynamically, PP has more unplanned maintenance and new device delays, and PE has increased maintenance from mid - August to early September, with supply decreasing and demand recovering. In terms of valuation, oil - end profits are good, MTO profits are restored, and PDH profits decline slightly. It is recommended that the unilateral market fluctuate in the short term and continue to hold the LP01 contract [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected to be relatively strongly supported in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [21][22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply of styrene remains high, but with profit compression, some devices may be shut down for maintenance. Downstream 3S loads have increased, and export expectations have increased due to overseas device maintenance. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that styrene prices will be supported at low levels, but the rebound is limited. It is recommended that EB09 fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 in the short term and be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [22]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly due to the expected increase in Russian supply from the proposed Russia - Ukraine summit by Trump and market concerns about oversupply. However, the gasoline crack spread has rebounded, and refinery processing volume is at a seasonal high, providing some support for oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish, expand the spread between October - November/December contracts at low levels, and wait for opportunities to expand the spread in the options market after volatility increases [24][26]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, compared with August 18, the prices of most urea futures contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.74% to 3.59%. The price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads of some urea futures contracts changed, such as the 01 - 05 contract spread increasing by 38.89% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short - position of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only a slight increase in the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong [1]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: The regional spreads of urea remained stable [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of urea in various regions changed, with some showing a significant decline [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable, with only a 0.60% increase in the price of melamine in Shandong [1]. - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of most fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea changed, with a slight decrease in daily production and an increase in weekly production. The inventory in factories and ports also changed, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in port inventory [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of most downstream polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [4]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2%, and some spreads also changed [4]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA East China spot increased by 0.4%, and the basis and processing margins changed [4]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of MEG East China spot decreased by 0.4%, and the basis and profits also changed [4]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and regional spreads changed [7]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the social inventory all increased [7]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic and overseas enterprises and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda remained stable, and the export profit decreased [14]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of PVC remained stable, and the export profit increased [14]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and industry profits changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries increased [14]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products industries changed slightly [14]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social & Factory Inventories**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC increased [14]. Polyolefin - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: The prices of polyolefin futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [19]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed, and the spreads also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene East China spot decreased by 0.1%, and the basis and cash flows changed [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam changed [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed, with pure benzene inventory decreasing and styrene inventory increasing [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [22]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads also changed [24]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased slightly, and the spreads changed [24]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3][5][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices continued to decline due to geopolitical factors and inventory data. The current demand lacks highlights, and the supply is expected to increase, so the oil price will continue to operate weakly [1][3] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply starting from September [3] - The asphalt market is expected to see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in August, and the price will fluctuate within a range [3] - The polyester market has a stable supply - demand situation, and the prices of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate with the oil price [5] - The rubber market is affected by factors such as rainfall, raw material prices, and tire demand, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - The methanol market will maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - The polyolefin market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply and improving demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the price of WTI September contract dropped by $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%. The Brent October contract fell by $0.81 to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. SC2510 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, down 4.2 yuan or 0.87%. Geopolitical factors and inventory data affected the price. The current demand is weak, and the supply is expected to rise, so the price will oscillate [1][3] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 0.26% to 2,698 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.12% to 3,454 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported in September. The price will oscillate [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2509) rose 0.14% to 3,455 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and the demand is expected to recover. The price will oscillate [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,734 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2509 closed at 4,424 yuan per ton, up 1.79%. PX supply and demand continued to recover, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [5] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 55 yuan to 15,875 yuan per ton. The production and demand situation affected the price, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level but will gradually recover. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate [7] - **Polyolefin**: The subsequent production will remain high, and the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. The price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually improving. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 19, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that in the week of August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the analyst's expectation [12] - The Whiting refinery of BP in the United States was affected by floods caused by a thunderstorm, but the specific impact on production was not specified [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread [63][66][68] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some varieties, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol and PP [71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [78][79][80][81]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market factors affecting each product, offering investment suggestions based on short - and long - term outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans had a 44,521 - ton auction, with 27,733 tons sold at an average price of 4,145 yuan/ton. Market supply increased marginally, while demand was weak. The price gap with imported soybeans is shrinking. US crop inspections showed increased pod numbers in some states. Weather, policies, and imported soybeans should be monitored [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. Future weather may challenge new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed boosted meal prices. 8 - 10 month soybean arrivals are expected to be around 10 million tons. Supply is sufficient this year, but there are uncertainties in the far - month. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections showed positive results for soybeans. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is negative. The price difference between Malaysian and Indonesian crude palm oil is weakening. Long - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures had a weak rebound. Chinese companies may import Australian rapeseed, with new crops expected to arrive at the end of the year. The market is expected to rebound in the short - term, and new import trends should be watched [6] Corn - As of August 19, China's CGSCA had 15 imported corn auctions, with a low total成交 rate of 36.38%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Short - term spot prices are strengthening, but mid - term prices are expected to decline due to high supply. Policy may support prices at a certain level. A sell - on - rallies hedging strategy is recommended [8] Eggs - Egg futures are accelerating downward. Spot prices are weak, and over - capacity is a long - term issue. Mid - term, prices may continue to fall to reduce capacity. Short - term, profit - taking risks should be watched [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250817: Limited Supply - Demand Contradiction, Upward Macro, and Bullish Oscillation in the Market [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of copper is limited, the macro - economic situation is upward, and the copper futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Key Points by Section Price Data - The spot supply of copper is tight, the purchasing sentiment has increased, and the spot premium has risen [10] - The LME copper 0 - 3M spread has continued to widen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has increased by $0.38 per ton week - on - week to - $37.68 per ton, showing a recovery but still remaining low [15] - The copper concentrate inventory at nine ports has decreased by 62,000 tons week - on - week to 557,600 tons [17] - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - Only one domestic smelter is under maintenance in August, but the number of smelters with production cuts has increased, and the electrolytic copper output is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [20] - The copper import window has opened [21] - The week - on - week change in the electrolytic copper spot inventory is limited, while the bonded - area inventory has continued to increase [23] - The LME copper inventory has hardly changed, and the COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate [25] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods has increased, and downstream purchases have increased [27] - From August 1st to 10th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China have increased by 6% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [28] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic modules in August has changed little month - on - month [31] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August has decreased by 4.9% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year, with the air - conditioner production volume decreasing by 2.8% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan [36] - The US CPI in July has increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; the PPI has increased by 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [39] - Two new candidates for the Fed Chair support significant interest - rate cuts [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]