投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/11/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 5 | 447. 4 | -8. 10 | 成交情况: PTA:原油下跌,且PX行情下跌,成本支撑减弱,利空 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1385.8 | 1414. 7 | 28. 86 | PTA行情。PTA去库存,基差走强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4187 | 1. 4351 | 0. 0165 | | | | CFR中国PX | 833 | 824 | -9 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 260 | 262 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4696 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with some proximal TA devices under maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load increased, inventory was depleted, basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing fees improved. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened, and cost - end PX had a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, with domestic oil - based production increasing load and coal - based production having some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up declined. With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are opportunities for short - term selling of put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.8, PTA spot price decreased by 15, and PTA processing fee increased by 41. The average daily trading basis for PTA was 2601(-61) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device were under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream has no obvious pressure, and with India revoking the BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 3, the inner - market price decreased by 33, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 47.08 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - **Market Outlook**: With supply load reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. There are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 7 [2]. - **Device Operation**: The start - up rate was stable at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory was basically flat [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term as the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 10 [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber prices affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 8 [8]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 45, and the domestic profits of EPS, PS, and ABS remained unchanged [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a daily update on futures arbitrage data for various commodities on November 24, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from November 17 to 21, 2025. The basis remained at 32.6 yuan/ton during this period, and all spreads were 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided, along with price changes such as - 8.81, - 14.21, etc [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 17 to 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on November 21 was - 490 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 65 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 17 to 21, 2025 are shown. On November 21, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2330 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on November 21 was 173.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 42.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from November 17 to 21, 2025 are given. On November 21, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.89 [20]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on November 21 was 20 yuan/ton [31]. London Market - On November 21, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 1.06 [34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 21 was - 89 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of various agricultural products are given, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios and spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.88 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 21 was 71.22 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of CSI 300 was - 408 [50].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily from ITG Guomao Futures, focusing on the agricultural products, especially soybeans and soybean meal [2][3] - The report is dated November 21, 2025, and the analyst is Huang Xianglan [3] Group 2: Market Data Basis and Spread - On November 20, the basis of soybean meal's main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 45, while in Dongguan it increased by 5. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong decreased by 4 [4] - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread on the main contract was 451, with a change of 14 [5] Exchange Rate and Crushing Margin - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0769, and the crushing margin for Brazilian soybeans was -52 yuan/ton, with no change [5] Inventory - The inventory data shows the trends of soybean inventory in Chinese ports, major oil mills, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 to 2025 [5] Operation and Crushing - The data also presents the operation rate and soybean crushing volume of major oil mills from 2020 to 2023 [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 reduced the US soybean yield per acre, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected positive impact [6] - CONB predicts Brazil's new crop output in 25/26 to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the sowing rate was 58.4% [6] - In China, soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still relatively loose. The purchase of 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply [6] - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, with recent downstream transactions being stable and good提货 performance [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - If there are no obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal pricing [6] - It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [6]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads on November 21, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' term - to - term spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. - For example, the IF term - to - term spread of the next - month minus the current - month is - 18.80, with a change of - 0.60 from the previous day, and historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of 20.90% and 24.10% respectively [1]. - The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are also provided, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - On November 21, 2025, the report shows the IRR, latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of different treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - It details the term - to - term spreads of different treasury bond futures, like the TS term - to - term spread of the current - season minus the next - season is 0.0420, with a change of - 0.0080 from the previous day and a percentile of 31.90% since listing [2]. - Cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures are also presented, such as TS - TF with a value of - 3.4730, a change of - 0.0550, and a percentile of 9.60% since listing [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - On November 21, 2025, the report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [3]. - For example, the AU2512 contract's domestic futures closing price on November 20 was 932.56, down 4.44 from the previous day, with a decline of - 0.47% [3]. - The basis, such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, is - 2.56, with a change of 0.16 from the previous value and a historical 1 - year percentile of 53.40% [3]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - On November 22, 2025, the report shows container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data [5]. - The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on November 17 was 1357.67, down 147.1 from November 10, with a decline of - 9.78% [5]. - Fundamental data includes global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the price, basis, basis rate, historical quantile, and other data of various futures and spot commodities on November 21, 2025, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The conversion price of 72 - grade silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5446, with a change of 2.06% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The conversion price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 5614 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3050, and the futures price is 3210, with a basis rate of 5.25% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The futures price is 3270, with a change of 0.09% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 1634, with a change of 0.75% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The conversion price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1646, with a historical quantile of 70.18% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1114, with a change of 9.83% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2601)**: The SMM 1 copper average price is 86435, and the futures price is 86130, with a basis of 305 and a historical quantile of 79.79% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21570, and the futures price is 21530, with a basis rate of 0.19% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM alumina index average price is 2836 [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 22360, and the futures price is 22380, with a basis of - 20 [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 291500, and the futures price is 292030, with a change of - 0.18% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE01)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 116600, and the futures price is 115380, with a basis of 1220 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: The price of 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 12820, and the futures price is 12285, with a change of 4.35% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2980, and the futures price is 3017, with a basis rate of - 1.23% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8224, and the futures price is 8420, with a basis of 196 [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8630, and the futures price is 8646, with a basis of - 16 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The ex - factory price of common rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2412, and the futures price is 2500, with a basis rate of - 0.19% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9779, and the futures price is 10100, with a basis of 321 [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2220, and the futures price is 2168, with a basis rate of 3.28% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2550, and the futures price is 2473, with a basis of 77 [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2601)**: The ex - factory price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan is 11750, and the futures price is 11440, with a basis of 310 [1]. - **Eggs (JD2601)**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 3238, and the futures price is 2710, with a basis rate of - 16.31% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang is 14563, and the futures price is 13465, with a basis of 1098 [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5760, and the futures price is 5366, with a basis of 394 [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The delivery theoretical price of apples is 9496, and the futures price is 8840, with a basis of - 656 [1]. - **Red Dates (C1601)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 9300, and the futures price is 8800, with a basis of - 500 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: The spot price of para - xylene at the main Chinese port (CFR) converted into RMB is 6830, and the futures price is 6833, with a basis rate of 0.04% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The market price (intermediate price) of PTA in the East China region is 4630, and the futures price is 4696, with a basis of - 66 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 3935, and the futures price is 3822, with a basis of 113 [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market is 6220, and the futures price is 6305, with a basis of 85 [1]. - **Styrene (EB2601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 6625, and the futures price is 6595, with a basis of 30 [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2000, and the futures price is 2016, with a basis of - 16 [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of urea (small - particle) in Shandong region is 1640, and the futures price is 1665, with a basis of - 25 [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong is 6855, and the futures price is 6835, with a basis of 20 [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6400, and the futures price is 6500, with a basis of 100 [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of PVC (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4456, and the futures price is 4420, with a basis of - 36 [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong market converted to 100% is 2437.5, and the futures price is 2261, with a basis of 176.5 [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The market price of LPG in Guangzhou region is 4397, and the futures price is 4348, with a basis of - 49 [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong region is 3030, and the futures price is 3058, with a basis of 28 [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China is 10700, and the futures price is 10520, with a basis of 180 [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The market price of Fufa glass 5mm large board in Shahe, Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) is 988, and the futures price is 989, with a basis of - 1 [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The market price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe (daily) is 1158, and the futures price is 1128, with a basis of - 30 [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) in Shanghai is 15250, and the futures price is 14850, with a basis of 400 [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - IF2512.CFE: The futures price is 4564.9, and the basis is - 25.7, with a basis rate of - 0.57% [1]. - IH2512.CFE: The futures price is 3002.6, and the basis is - 5.7, with a basis rate of - 0.19% [1]. - IC2512.CFE: The futures price is 7061.9, and the basis is - 61.9, with a basis rate of - 0.88% [1]. - IM2512.CFE: The futures price is 7340.4, and the basis is - 76.8, with a basis rate of - 1.00% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - TS2512: The futures price is 100.04, and the basis is - 0.01, with a basis rate of - 0.01% [1]. - TF2512: The futures price is 105.92, and the basis is 0.00, with a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - T2512: The futures price is 108.48, and the basis is 0.08, with a basis rate of 0.08% [1]. - TL2512: The futures price is 115.93, and the basis is 0.16, with a basis rate of 0.14% [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the deliverable, and there is limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5396, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.57% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4858, down 0.29% day - on - day and 0.61% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5398, down 0.22% day - on - day and 1.46% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 4400, unchanged [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 530 dollars, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Golden Fish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on November 13, 2025, was 22.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: As of November 13, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.90 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 28.48 tons; white cardboard was 36.20 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 542, with a quantile level of 0.961; the Silver Star basis was 692, with a quantile level of 0.908 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 19, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Golden Fish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, although there are geopolitical head - winds, the copper price has strong support due to tight raw material supply and improved spot market after price correction. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 1,0700 - 10,920 US dollars/ton [3][4]. - For aluminum, with relatively fluctuating domestic inventories and low overseas inventories, the aluminum price has strong support. If domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after consolidation. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,840 US dollars/ton [5][6]. - For lead, due to tight domestic lead raw materials, high primary and increasing secondary smelting production, and marginal improvement in downstream demand, the domestic lead ingot social inventory is marginally increasing. The lead price is expected to be weak in the short - term [7][8]. - For zinc, with tight zinc ore during refineries' winter stockpiling, reduced zinc smelting profits, and slowdown in domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation, along with the impact of Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. - For tin, the short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the domestic main contract operating range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 36,000 - 38,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - For nickel, due to increasing refined nickel inventory, falling ferronickel price, and expected increase in refined nickel supply, the short - term nickel price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider building long positions if the ferronickel price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough [13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the whole contract increased positions by 70,000 lots on Wednesday, with bulls leading the market. The demand is strong, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. It is necessary to pay attention to price fluctuations, and focus on factors such as position structure, equity market atmosphere, and lithium - battery material and cell production scheduling [17][18]. - For alumina, with the recovery of overseas ore shipments after the rainy season and over - capacity in the smelting end, the inventory is increasing. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see [20][21]. - For stainless steel, with the oversupply situation unchanged, weak market confidence, and sufficient imported raw materials, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to decline [23][24]. - For cast aluminum alloy, with cost support and average demand, the short - term price is expected to follow the aluminum price [26]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks stabilized, copper prices rebounded. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.98% to 10,802 US dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract reached 86,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 17,375 to 157,875 tons, mainly from Asian warehouses. Domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 58,000 tons, and the spot premium in Shanghai increased. The domestic copper spot import loss shrank to about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US government reopened, but there are geopolitical head - winds. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the spot market has improved after the price correction. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 1,0700 - 10,920 US dollars/ton [3][4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 2,814 US dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract reached 21,530 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 1.2 to 668,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee declined. The spot in the East China electrolytic aluminum market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading improved. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 546,000 tons [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are relatively fluctuating, and overseas inventories are low. If domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after consolidation. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,840 US dollars/ton [5][6]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.12% to 17,248 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to 2,026 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 31,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 40,400 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead ore and waste battery inventories increased slightly, but the lead raw materials are still tight. The primary and secondary smelting profits are good, and the downstream demand has improved marginally. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is marginally increasing. The lead price is expected to be weak in the short - term [7][8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.49% to 22,437 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose 13 to 2,986.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,420 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 75,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 156,600 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but it is still tight during refineries' winter stockpiling. Zinc smelting profits are damaged, and the zinc ingot supply is marginally decreasing. The downstream operating rate is stable, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation has slowed down. The LME zinc spread is marginally decreasing. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 293,370 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was reported at 279,500 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan/ton. The tin smelting plants' operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have recovered but are still at a low level due to tight tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State has been approved, the tin ore export is still far below the normal level [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the domestic main contract operating range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 36,000 - 38,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 115,650 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The ferronickel price has been falling rapidly since November [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to increasing refined nickel inventory, falling ferronickel price, and expected increase in refined nickel supply, the short - term nickel price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider building long positions if the ferronickel price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 97,343 yuan, up 3.73%. The LC2601 contract closed at 99,300 yuan, up 6.18% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The whole contract increased positions by 70,000 lots on Wednesday, with bulls leading the market. The demand is strong, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. It is necessary to pay attention to price fluctuations, and focus on factors such as position structure, equity market atmosphere, and lithium - battery material and cell production scheduling [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 19, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.39% to 2,764 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 67 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 33 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 255,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting end has over - capacity. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 operating range is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [20][21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets had different changes. The raw material prices such as ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,726 to 70,365 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,070,600 tons [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, market confidence is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue to decline [23][24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price stabilized. The main AD2601 contract rose 0.36% to 20,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 5,100 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.02 to 51,500 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With cost support and average demand, the short - term price is expected to follow the aluminum price [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views No clear core views are presented in the given reports. The reports mainly provide daily data on various financial products including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping, without explicit investment - related core views. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread was - 13.19, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 52.00% and an all - time quantile of 32.30%. Different contracts like H, IC, IM also had their respective futures - spot spreads and quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts for different varieties, with values and historical quantiles provided. For instance, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of a certain variety was - 14.60, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.60% and an all - time quantile of 29.30% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like the ratio of IC to IF was 1.5543, with a change of - 0.0049, and 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles of 86.80% and 86.70% respectively [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: The basis of different bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, TL was reported, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the T basis was 1.5950, with a historical quantile of 54.70% [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract periods (current - quarter, next - quarter, etc.) of bond futures were given, including values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of TS was 0.0020, with a historical quantile of 21.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF, TS - T were reported, with values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices of gold and silver, were presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2512 contract of domestic gold futures closed at 937.00 yuan/gram on November 19, with a 2.01% increase [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different gold and silver contracts (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold futures main contract) was reported, including values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 2.72, with a historical quantile of 48.50% [3]. - **Ratios and Yields**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and yields of US Treasury bonds (10 - year and 2 - year) were provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 79.86, with a - 0.76% change [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes) and Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI) were reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1357.67 points on November 17, with a - 9.78% decrease compared to November 10 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping contracts (e.g., EC2602) and their basis were presented, along with changes and percentage changes. For example, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1640.1 on November 19, with a - 2.26% decrease [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), export balances, and overseas economic indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index) were provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3342.26 million TEU on November 19, with a 0.01% increase [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with coal prices strong and enterprise profits falling, supply pressure persists. Demand is weak, so prices may decline further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are decreasing. Urea prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. Short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [9]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven decline may shift to the impact of South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [17]. - For polypropylene, in a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November. Although polyester load may remain high, PTA processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. - For ethylene glycol, inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. With a weak pattern, the valuation may be further compressed, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.48% increase, to 464.50 yuan/barrel. Fujeirah port's gasoline inventory decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see in the short term [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang's price decreased by 5, Lunan remained stable, Inner Mongolia increased by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan to 2013 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 14, reported at - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It's recommended to wait and see as prices may decline [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's by 20, Hubei's by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 1 yuan to 1663 yuan, and the basis was - 53. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to news. With high supply and weak demand, new export policies have improved the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. Shanghai Exchange's November natural rubber warehouse receipts are about to be delivered. The long - short views are divided. Tire factory operating rates are neutral, and inventories are mixed [8]. - **Strategy**: Bullish view, short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 4492 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4450 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 42 (- 2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 306 (+ 13) yuan/ton. Costs decreased, production and demand decreased, and inventories decreased [9]. - **Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The price of East China pure benzene remained unchanged, the spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. Supply increased, demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to recover, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production decreased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand was weak [16]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to cost and supply - demand factors [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production increased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the cost - side situation changes in Q1 next year [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 102 yuan to 6870 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 5 dollars to 832 dollars. Loads decreased in China and Asia, and some plants had maintenance or production cuts. Imports increased, and inventories increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from the supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 42 yuan to 4712 yuan, and the spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4640 yuan. Loads decreased, some plants had maintenance or production increases, downstream loads decreased, and inventories increased [23]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3903 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 33 yuan to 3919 yuan. Supply loads were mixed, downstream loads decreased, imports were expected, and port inventories increased [26]. - **Strategy**: Inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4, and the valuation may be further compressed. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [27].