Group 1 - The article outlines significant events over the past decade that have influenced gold prices, highlighting the interplay of global economic cycles, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment [21] - In 2016, Brexit and Trump's election led to a surge in safe-haven demand, with global central bank gold purchases increasing by 15% to 430 tons [2] - The trade war between the US and China from 2018 to 2019 weakened global economic expectations, resulting in gold prices rising over 30% from their 2018 lows, with gold ETF holdings reaching record highs [4][5] Group 2 - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic shutdown, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero and initiate unlimited quantitative easing, leading to a more than 15% increase in gold prices for the year [6][10] - In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed gold prices close to previous highs, with central bank gold purchases reaching 1,136 tons, the highest in 55 years [7] - Looking ahead to 2024, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive global central bank gold purchases to 247 tons per month, with gold prices projected to rise nearly 30% [11] Group 3 - Key factors influencing gold prices include monetary policy and interest rate environments, where rate hikes suppress gold prices while rate cuts tend to boost them [14] - Geopolitical events such as Brexit and the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger safe-haven buying, leading to short-term price increases [16] - Central bank gold purchases have been on the rise, with a 63% year-on-year increase in 2024, providing long-term support for gold prices [17]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 | LME 铜下跌 0.91%至 9137 美元/吨；SHFE 铜下跌 0.17%至 7583 元/吨；现货进口 维系亏损。宏观方面，海外方面，纽约制造业整体商业状况指数上升 11.9 点至-8.1， | | | | 好于预期值-13.5，尽管有所缓和，但也制造业活动连续第二个月萎缩，未来订单信心 指数暴跌至 2001 年以来最低水平，显示对未来经济衰退的担忧。美国财长贝森特逐渐 | | | | 主导关税政策，关税或更加聚焦。另据媒体报道，欧盟预计美国针对欧盟的大部分关税 | | | | 将维持现状，双方目前谈判几乎没有取得进展。国内方面，政府提到将以更大力度促进 | | 铜 | | 消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场的活力潜力。库存方 | | | | 面来看，LME 库存增加 4650 吨至 212475 吨；Comex 库存增加 586 吨至 109242 吨； | | | | SHFE 铜仓单增加 2840 吨至 9220 ...

昨天因为继续缩量横盘，没什么好说的，无非就是15分钟级别顶背离之后的凸形拐点悬停区间，就好比把一块石头往上丢，一个抛物线的顶端，速度逐渐 减为零，几何呈现为弧形拐弯。 所以，择时投机的本质就是理解市场情绪，情绪即动量；反之，如果被市场情绪牵着鼻子走，就坠入饿道轮回，万劫不复。 我们继续等待10/20/40周期的情绪指标再次粘合，或者其中两条粘合，以及15分钟级别动量指标的底背离特征，综合判断下一次高胜率切入位置。 形态学上，上次已经讲过，这是基底进入右侧之后构造3C区域的阶段，3C构造完成以后，再次突破就是口袋支点（枢轴点），进入欧马体系操作空间。 更重要的是，对猛兽股轮廓侧写的把握，大盘指数日线级别逐渐进入第二阶段时，超级大牛股将越来越明显，但这个群体数量并不多，处于幂律分布最顶 端的区域，无论从动力学和形态学都必须是无暇完美的，例如上一轮牛市中天赐材料，体会一下基底从左侧进入右侧的过程： 复盘历史上的超级大牛股，是学习欧马体系的必修课。从形态学、动力学、基本面、产业锚、催化剂等各方面反复比较揣摩，以及和大盘情绪起伏之间的 关系，等等。 持续缩量是因为买卖双方的冲动和理性意愿都在减退。 今天上午一开始还是延 ...

在连续二十几期的情绪观察之后，不知道读者是什么体会，我自己总结了一下主要是以下几点： 因此，比较稳妥的策略是： 关于情绪指标的延伸阅读： 关于动量指标的延伸阅读： 《 RSR（RSV、RPS）和趋势模板的背景含义 》 市场的日常是非理性的，因此会有波动起伏；市场又是很理性的，因为非理性终究要回归。 所谓循环和规律，只是对历史数据的统计归纳，如果生搬硬套必然犯刻舟求剑的毛病。总结用归纳法，实战用演绎法。交易演绎法，不是用归纳得到的经 验去求必然因果，而是不断评估大局和局部的胜率和赔率，更新自己的对策，西洋学说称之为贝叶斯主义。 择时的本质是情绪管理。 市场起伏在统计学上有迹可循，始终循环，但不简单重复； 方向可以预期，但无法准确预测，尤其无法预测涨跌幅度； 大多数周期，回撤比上涨要快，也即浮盈很容易变成浮亏； 胜率在情绪爬升期，赔率在情绪冰点，情绪高温区二率皆输； 动量背离是情绪反转前兆，动量的本源就是情绪; 情绪的最小张力单元就是TR，向上或者向下突破TR预示情绪反转； 1. 冰点抓胜率和赔率双赢，极端超卖区域的快速反弹； 2. 40周期情绪爬升过程中，抓更短周期的情绪回落点的胜率（埃尔德的三重滤网）； 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while valuation is a crucial concept in equity investment, its direct impact on stock prices is inconsistent and influenced by various factors [2][6]. Valuation and Market Conditions - Valuation's influence on stock prices is unstable, as shown in a study by Everbright Securities, which analyzed the relationship between valuation and stock price movements across different industries from January 2013 to February 2025 [2]. - Market tolerance for valuation varies under different conditions, particularly in relation to earnings growth rates [4][5]. - High-growth scenarios (earnings growth above 30%) show minimal differences in returns between high and low valuation combinations, especially when growth exceeds 100% [5]. - Conversely, in low-growth scenarios, market tolerance for high valuations decreases, leading to better performance from lower valuation combinations [5]. Market Sentiment and Valuation Preferences - Market sentiment, represented by turnover rates, affects investor preferences for valuation. During bullish sentiment, investors favor high-valuation sectors, while in bearish conditions, they lean towards low-valuation sectors [5]. - The combination of market sentiment with valuation metrics significantly enhances the effectiveness of industry grouping based on PE ratios [5]. Complexity of Valuation - Valuation is important for providing a long-term perspective on investment levels, but the "reasonable valuation" at any given moment is subject to multiple influences [6]. - Acknowledging the complexity of valuation and maintaining a respectful attitude towards market dynamics is essential for assessing investment opportunities related to valuation fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that a single factor is insufficient for long-term success in industry comparisons, advocating for a comprehensive evaluation that incorporates multiple factors, particularly focusing on valuation metrics [3]. Valuation Analysis - Directly using valuation for industry comparisons yields poor results, as the absolute value perspective shows that valuation has an insignificant impact on stock prices. Historical data indicates that both PE and PB valuations have unstable influences on industry stock prices [4]. - Standardizing valuations improves the effectiveness of comparisons, yet the results remain inconsistent. Different industries have unique characteristics and developmental stages, making absolute valuation comparisons potentially misleading [4]. Market Sentiment Impact - The effectiveness of valuation improves significantly when combined with market sentiment. High or low valuation factors struggle to maintain consistent performance, as short-term stock performance is often influenced by marginal changes in fundamentals and market events rather than valuation alone [5]. - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in determining investor preferences for high or low valuation stocks. During periods of rising sentiment, investors favor high valuation sectors, while in declining sentiment, they gravitate towards low valuation sectors [5]. Enhanced Distinction with Market Sentiment - When market sentiment is considered, the distinction in industry performance based on absolute valuation improves significantly. Both PE and PB valuations show enhanced differentiation, with a stable upward trend in the performance of various groups [6]. - However, standardized valuation scores do not perform as well when combined with market sentiment, showing less clear differentiation and unstable performance trends [6]. Best Performing Valuation Metric - Among various valuation metrics, PE valuation combined with market sentiment yields the best scoring results. The investment strategy based on PE valuation from January 2013 to February 2025 shows annualized returns of 16.3%, 11.7%, 4.3%, 0.9%, and -4.7% for different groups, with a total annualized return of 20.9% for the long-short portfolio and a Sharpe ratio of 1.08 [7].

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have declined by 0.67% due to improved market sentiment and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with current prices at $3,002 [1] - The optimism in Wall Street trading is reflected in the slight increase in market sentiment, despite gold prices failing to maintain upward momentum, which has risen over 13% this year [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has shown a significant decline from 52.7 to 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the services PMI increased from 51.0 to 54.3, highlighting strong growth in the services sector [5] Group 2 - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the Fed may only cut rates once this year, with inflation expected to return to target levels around 2027 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged by 8 basis points to 4.331%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [4] - The U.S. dollar index has risen by 0.20% to 104.35, further impacting gold's performance [5] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently facing pressure, with a potential drop below $3,000 if the downward trend continues, exposing previous volatility highs [7] - If gold maintains above $3,000, the first resistance level will be the peak of $3,047 reached in March, followed by this year's high of $3,057 and the $3,100 mark [7]

来 源 | 聪 明 投 资 者 作 者 ｜IN 咖 预 计 阅 读 时 间：1 6 分 钟 许久没有露面的传奇投资人安东尼·波顿（Anthony Bolton）最近参加了一个对谈节目。 这位被贴 上"英国彼得·林奇"、"逆向大师"种种标签的投资大师，对当下有明确的判断："我今天的看法是， 我们处于中国新一轮牛市的初期阶段。"，"真正关键的是：市场已经对前景作出什么样的定价了， 不是前景本身。" 今年75岁的安东尼·波顿， 1979年加入富达（Fidelity），并迅速成为其传奇的投资经理之一。 他 的投资哲学强调耐心与坚持，尤其在市场情绪高涨时，波顿能够保持冷静，识别出被过度追捧或忽 视的资产。 他经历过多次重大市场危机如1987年股灾、2000年互联网泡沫破裂、2001年"9·11"事件……但 仍保持了稳定的高回报，展现了其逆向投资策略的韧性。波顿的成功秘诀在于他对企业基本面的深 入研究和对市场信息的独特理解，他甚至不讳言，自己相对基本面"更痴迷于解读投票器——通过 股东变动、内部交易等捕捉市场情绪"。 这次对话中，他讲到很多实操上的内容。 有意思的是，他讲到"特别喜欢非对称回报的投资机会"， 这点跟霍华德 ...

Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the equity market has performed well, but there is still structural differentiation, with the technology sector leading due to frequent catalysts, while the cyclical sectors remain divided [3] - The upcoming earnings season until April may significantly influence market sentiment due to insufficient guidance from profit data [3] Market Sentiment Analysis From Volume and Price Indicators - Trading sentiment is high but not overheated, with a high turnover rate that is slowing down, and 80% of stocks exceeding their average price over the past year [4] - The concentration of trading in leading stocks has increased rapidly but is not at an extreme level, and the proportion of stocks reaching new highs is currently low [4] From Fund Indicators - There is still room for funds to enter, as margin financing balances and buying amounts have risen sharply, with the proportion of financing buying reaching historical highs [5] - The environment for fund issuance is improving, but there has not yet been significant scale expansion [5] From Valuation Indicators - Stock valuations have increased, with a decline in the price-performance ratio of the stock market, while the equity market remains strong relative to the bond market [6] - The 60-day average of the equity-bond yield spread is at a high level compared to the past two years, indicating a relative attractiveness of the stock market [6] Summary of Market Characteristics - The stock market's rise since the Spring Festival is characterized by a strong structural performance in the technology sector, with many stocks still in an adjustment phase [9] - Leveraged funds and public funds have rapidly increased their positions, reflecting their optimistic sentiment, but the continuation of the rally may require more incremental capital inflow [9]