想要精准捕捉期货市场的风起云涌，你需要的不只是一个行情显示器，而是一座功能齐全的"专业气象 站"。它能帮你监测全球市场的"气压变化"，解读政策与供需的"风云图"，更能让你听到各地"观察 员"的一手情报。新浪财经APP，正是为期货投资者量身打造的这样一座决策"气象站"。 核心雷达：覆盖全球的精密"监测"网络 在期货市场，信息的全面与速度就是生命线。新浪财经APP构建了覆盖全球市场的实时行情"监测网 络"。 与其他一些侧重于某一单一功能（如极致的图表分析或纯粹的交易速度）的平台相比，新浪财经APP的 优势在于提供了均衡而全面的"监测套餐"。它或许不是某项单一指标最强的，但其数据的广度、工具的 实用性与稳定性，为大多数投资者提供了可靠的基础设施。 资讯风云：快人一步的"预报"与"解读"系统 市场波动往往由信息驱动。新浪财经APP依托强大的媒体基因，打造了立体的资讯"预报与解读"系统。 社区生态：汇聚智慧的民间"观察站" 如果说官方数据和专业分析是"气象卫星云图"，那么来自市场一线的真实声音就是遍布各地的"地面观 察站"。新浪财经APP的期货社区，正是这样一个充满活力的民间智慧集散地。 全景"气象图"：提供国内外主流 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the price - holding situation of industrial silicon plants [1]. - For polysilicon, with the details of the platform company's equity announced, the disk is recommended to go long on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market** - Si2601: The closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1, 670 yuan from T - 5, and 1,040 yuan from T - 22. The trading volume was 252,510 lots, down 71,000 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 171,757 lots, down 13,514 lots from T - 1 [1]. - PS2601: The closing price was 55,915 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 116,207 lots, down 42,531 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 54,959 lots, down 13,915 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis and Price** - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +950 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from T - 1. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium (against N - type reinvestment) was - 3915 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan from T - 1. The N - type reinvestment polysilicon price was 52300 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Profit** - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 3019.5 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1. The profit of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 4131 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Other Products in the Industry** - Organic silicon: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The DMC enterprise profit was 1801 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The ADC12 price was 21500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. The recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - A new platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has 10 shareholders, 9 of which are silicon - material production enterprises. Among them, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s holding subsidiary holds 30.35% with a subscribed registered capital of 910.5 million yuan, and GCL Technology's subsidiary holds 16.79% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's third rate cut this year has influenced the commodity futures market. Different commodities have different market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and inventory fluctuations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: After the Fed's third rate cut this year, precious metal prices first declined and then rose, with the silver price approaching $62 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed announced the third rate cut this year and the purchase of short - term bonds. Powell's speech was considered dovish, and there were internal voting differences in the FOMC. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in different markets showed different changes [1]. - Trading strategy: As the Fed cut rates as expected, gold prices regained strength, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the overseas market is tight, but domestic inventories have been accumulating for many days, so it is recommended to take profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Silver - Market trends are affected by the same Fed rate - cut event. The overseas market is tight, while domestic inventories have been increasing [1]. - The trading strategy is related to the inventory situation, suggesting taking profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved due to discussions on bond extension and mortgage贴息. The CPI and PPI continued to weaken. The Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan also had an impact. The supply - side copper mine shortage will be difficult to change in the medium term, and the demand - side showed certain trading prices [2]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, and there were corresponding price differences and LME prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product start - up rate declined slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: Both long and short positions decreased, and the aluminum price retreated from a high level. However, the favorable macro - environment and low inventory provided support, so it is expected that the price will maintain a range - bound oscillation [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous trading day, and there was a corresponding price difference [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some alumina plants started maintenance, and the operating capacity decreased, but there was no large - scale production reduction. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading strategy: Before large - scale production reduction occurs, the spot price will continue to decline under pressure. Be cautious of technical rebounds in the futures market due to the concentrated stop - profit of short positions [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it opened flat and oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price decreased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Sichuan. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventories also increased. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries were promoting anti - involution, and the production and start - up rates of related industries showed certain trends [3]. - Trading strategy: The current supply - demand is stable, but social inventories have increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. There may be further production cuts in the southwest, and environmental protection disturbances need to be monitored in the northwest. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Affected by news, the LC2605 contract price increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased. The supply showed certain production trends, and the demand of related industries such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was expected to change. The inventory situation showed a trend of destocking, but the shortage degree was narrowing [3]. - Trading strategy: Currently, there is a situation of strong reality and weak seasonal expectations. The short - term upward price drive is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory data and downstream inventory trends. It is recommended to consider selling call options with high implied volatility or shorting on rallies [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it rushed up and then oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price increased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was stable, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells declined, and the downstream production plan in December decreased significantly compared to the previous month. The new photovoltaic installation in October had certain changes, and the policy implementation was expected to put pressure on the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation [3]. - Trading strategy: After the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new delivery brands on Friday, it is expected that the main contract price will first return to the core spot trading range. It is necessary to focus on the new brands' production capacity, supply stability, and product quality to judge their long - term impact on the market [3]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices oscillated strongly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved, the CPI and PPI continued to weaken, and the Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan had an impact. The supply - side tin mine shortage continued, and the demand - side showed certain premium and inventory trends. There was also new information about the war in the Congo tin - producing area [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3108 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material apparent demand decreased in different statistical calibers, and the production also decreased. The steel supply - demand was weak, and there was significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures had a large discount and low valuation, while hot - rolled coil futures' discount was basically flat and the valuation was high. Steel mills continued to lose money, and production may continue to decline slightly [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to close short positions and try to go long on the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3080 - 3130 [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 767 yuan per ton, up 8.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased, and the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore supply - demand was weak, and the iron water production decreased significantly. The fourth - round coke price increase failed, and the first - round price cut was implemented and the second - round was proposed. Steel mills' profits were poor, and future blast furnace production may decline steadily. The supply was in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure but with a relatively low absolute level, and the valuation was moderately high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, with the I05 reference range of 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1078 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron water production decreased significantly, and steel mills' profits deteriorated. The first - round price cut was implemented, and the second - round was proposed. The inventory at each supply - side link was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was moderate. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained, with a relatively high futures valuation [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1060 - 1100 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was a slight near - term production reduction, and the long - term South American supply was expected to be large. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing was strong, and the export was still in a game. The global supply - demand was improving marginally but still in a loose state [8]. - Trading strategy: The US soybean price was weak, reflecting the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The domestic market was strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the medium - term situation depends on the tariff policy and production in the producing areas [8]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price was weak, and the spot price was falling rapidly [8]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The short - term procurement was concentrated in the northeast, causing logistics tension. The rising spot price intensified farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a short - term supply shortage. However, the continuous rise in corn prices increased the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the feed - end procurement enthusiasm would decline after continuous inventory replenishment. The short - term spot price is expected to decline gradually [8]. - Trading strategy: As the spot price weakens, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell yesterday due to a negative report [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the estimated November production in Malaysia decreased by 5% month - on - month, entering the seasonal production reduction period. On the demand side, the estimated November exports decreased by 28% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continued to accumulate, and the long - term was in the seasonal production reduction period [8]. - Trading strategy: There are no major contradictions in the short - term, with a weak seasonal production reduction and differentiation among oil varieties. It is necessary to pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price started to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US cotton planting and harvesting areas in 25/26 had certain data, and the Turkey's cotton import volume in October decreased. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, with strong buying support below. Spinning enterprises adjusted their raw material procurement strategies, planning to replenish inventory before the Chinese New Year, and the high - count yarn sales were good [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy based on the 13700 - 14000 yuan per ton range [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, the enthusiasm for culling decreased, and the capacity reduction slowed down. The market sales were average, and traders mainly purchased on a need - to - buy basis, with increasing wait - and - see sentiment and accumulating inventory. The rising vegetable price supported the egg price, and currently, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, so the egg price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the lack of major supply - demand contradictions, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price fell, and the spot price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. Before the Winter Solstice, there will be a concentrated slaughter in the breeding sector, with weak pig prices in the first half of the month. As the demand continues to increase later, the pig price is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent slaughter volume changes [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the seasonal increase in demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6530 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production facilities were put into operation, some facilities reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume is expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The PP spot price in East China was 6150 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the overall market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, in the short - term, new production facilities were still being put into operation, some facilities unexpectedly stopped, and the domestic supply gradually increased, and the supply pressure in the market increased. The export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy this year over - exploited part of the fourth - quarter demand [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the basis was weak, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will still oscillate weakly as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production facilities will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices weakened again yesterday. The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace proposal, and if a peace agreement is reached, the risk premium may be reversed, and the support for oil prices will be broken. The EIA weekly report showed that the US crude oil inventory drawdown was lower than expected, the gasoline and diesel inventories increased more than expected, and the EIA raised the US annual supply forecast by 20,000 barrels per day, indicating strong US supply resilience [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, due to US sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil production and exports in December need to be monitored, and the impact of the US - Venezuela military conflict on Venezuelan exports also needs attention. OPEC+ plans to nominally increase production by 130,000 - 140,000 barrels per day per month in December, but the actual monthly increase is expected to be less than 100,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the increased production in the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway continues to be released, and the supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, the refinery start - up rates in Europe and the US have fully recovered, but the terminal demand is still in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory is higher than the five - year average, and both water and land inventories have accumulated [10]. - Trading strategy: The probability of supply surplus is high at the end of the year and in Q1, and crude oil should still be used as a short - position allocation. It is possible to wait for a premium due to geopolitical events and then short on rallies [10]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6500 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere was average. The overseas US dollar price rose slightly, and the import window was still closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the future pure benzene supply - demand is still weak, with a large overall contradiction. The styrene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and short - term maintenance increased, with a marginal improvement in supply - demand. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises is still at a high level, the demand is in the off - season, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy over - exploited part of the future demand [10][11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory increased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the valuation was low, and the overall contradiction was still large; the styrene inventory decreased slightly, was at a normal - to - high level, the basis was stable, the supply - demand weakened with the resumption of facilities, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term, with the upside space restricted by the import window. In the medium - to - long -

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The core views are that iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by real - estate sector sentiment and are in low - level oscillations; ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations; and logs are in low - level oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 12601 futures contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous day. The position decreased by 28,717 hands to 155,293 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), etc., all increased by 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.244 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In the first 11 months, the retail sales were 21.75 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.97%; the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.58%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil positions decreased by 79,529 hands and 2,506 hands respectively [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 4, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 27.67 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.55 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 35.22 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 16.77 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.7 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 26.76 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 10.96 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.36 tons, and the total decreased by 23.83 tons [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: For ferrosilicon, the 2603 contract closed at 5434 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the 2605 contract closed at 5394 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. For silicomanganese, the 2603 contract closed at 5724 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 2605 contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also showed certain fluctuations [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 11, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported. The offer prices of South32, CML, and Comilog for manganese ore in January 2026 were also announced, with some prices rising. HeSteel's 12 - month ferrosilicon inquiry price decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to November, while the quantity increased by 34 tons; the procurement of silicomanganese by a large steel group in Hebei decreased by 1300 tons in December, and the inquiry price decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared to November [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 963 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 2.1%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1527 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.9%. Positions of both decreased [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 10, the national consumer price index in November 2025 increased by 0.7% year - on - year [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 2601 log futures contract on December 10 was 756 yuan/m³, down 1.4% from the previous day and 1.1% from the previous week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the position decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed little change [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improved business climate [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场情绪低迷，焦煤持续下挫 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 向上驱动不足，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report believes that urea may fluctuate and build a bottom in the short term. Urea's low valuation reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid - to late December, there is an expectation of reduced supply, and the export quota will relieve domestic supply - demand pressure, while winter reserve demand will support the price. Recently, the price decline is affected by sentiment cooling and coal price drops, but the price is supported at a low level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On December 9, UR01 closed at 1643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1711 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1721 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton, Shanxi dropped 30 yuan to 1530 yuan/ton (-1.92%), Henan dropped 10 yuan to 1680 yuan/ton (-0.59%), etc. [1] Spreads and Cost - related Information - The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was -21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The prices of upstream raw materials such as Henan and Shanxi anthracite remained unchanged, while the prices of downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine mostly increased. For example, Shandong compound fertilizer (45%S) rose 30 yuan to 3160 yuan/ton (0.96%) [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1646 yuan/ton, the highest was 1651 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1643 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1644 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14700，基差-285 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰 ...

2025年12月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪偏弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：供应端信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1） 财联社 12 月 8 日电，乘联分会数据显示，11 月全国乘用车市场零售 224.4 万辆，同比下降 8.5%。前 11 个月，全国乘用车市场零售 2175 万辆，同比上涨 6.3%。(来自财联社 APP) 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 10 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

古都西安，金融赋能。近日，宏达国际期货财富峰会在西安盛大举办并圆满收官，本次峰会以"共探期市新机，共创财富未来"为核心，汇聚行业精英与投资 同仁，共赴一场专业与机遇兼具的财富盛宴。 峰会现场星光熠熠，宏达国际期货董事长高亮东、总经理简军领衔出席，呼遥、杨芳、闵婷、敬勃、万文辉等各系统领导人齐聚一堂，与众多新老朋友共襄 盛举。开场环节，总经理简军发表致辞，向到场嘉宾致以诚挚欢迎，分享了公司的发展理念与行业布局，并主持了隆重的分红奖励颁发仪式，将现场氛围推 向小高潮。 专业分享环节，商学院肖老师带来了干货满满的市场行情深度解析与期货知识科普，结合实际案例拆解投资逻辑，为参会者提供了极具实操性的参考。峰会 中途穿插的抽奖环节惊喜不断，丰厚礼品接连送出，让现场欢声笑语持续升温。抽奖结束后，董事长高亮东登台，详细介绍了公司的发展历程、核心优势与 未来规划，传递了与投资者携手共赢的坚定决心。 本次峰会吸引了大批期货投资领域的新朋友参与，大家在交流中碰撞思想、共享资源，既收获了专业知识，也搭建了广阔的合作桥梁。最后，在热烈融洽的 氛围中，宏达国际期货财富峰会圆满落幕。愿所有参会者在宏达国际期货的助力下旗开得胜，共赴财富新征 ...