1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows fluctuations, with the polyester market around 488 - 493. The market is weak, and investors are cautious. The supply - demand relationship in the industry is complex, with supply being relatively weak and demand also showing a narrow range of changes. There are factors such as macro - economic conditions and raw material prices affecting the market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The market is in a state of shock. For example, the polyester market has fluctuations, and the price range is around 488 - 493. The market is relatively weak, and trading is not active [2] Supply - Demand Relationship - Supply is relatively weak, with factors like low production volume and limited supply of raw materials. Demand also shows a narrow - range change, and the overall supply - demand gap is relatively small [2] Price Changes - Prices are in a state of shock and adjustment. For example, the price of ethylene glycol has certain fluctuations, and the price range is relatively narrow [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are cautious. The market is affected by macro - economic data and other factors, and investors are waiting and observing [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of having a trading plan and the distinction between professional traders and retail investors, highlighting that professionals manage risks effectively while retail investors often hold onto losing positions [1] - It mentions a specific trading opportunity in the futures market, particularly in asphalt, suggesting a potential return of around 200% and urging investors to act quickly [1] - The article notes that despite a positive market opening, the trading volume was lower than expected, indicating a cautious approach from major players and potential risks for smaller stocks [1] Group 2 - The cost of one futures contract is calculated at 105,200 yuan, with a profit of 4,000 yuan per contract, resulting in an approximate return of 4% [3] - The article highlights that in a narrow trading range, consistent daily gains of 5% and 4% can accumulate to significant profits over time [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%. In the domestic market, the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang has accelerated. However, due to the drought and high - temperature in some southern Xinjiang areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price continues to rise. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton supports the cotton price, but the supply exerts pressure on the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the economic and trade consultations [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang are accelerating. The yield per unit of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. The demand side indicates that downstream demand has not fully recovered, orders are insufficient, and market confidence in future demand is lacking. Cotton textile enterprises replenish inventory based on rigid demand. New cotton cost supports the price, but supply pressure restricts the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to economic and trade consultations [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the December US cotton contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.90% [12]. - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.33% [23]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Cotton futures was - 121,428 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 120 lots [28]. - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,414, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [34]. - This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 1 - 5 contracts was - 10 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,615 yuan/ton [37]. - This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract was + 1,265 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract was 600 yuan/ton [46]. - **Spot Market**: - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,860 yuan/ton [41]. - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,475 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan/ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,660 yuan/ton [52]. - As of October 30, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was reported at 14,202 yuan/ton, an increase of 222 yuan/ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was reported at 13,368 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,061 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,117 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: JC32S was 22,930 yuan/ton [56]. - As of October 30, the estimated profit of import cotton with sliding - scale duty was 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 163 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of import cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton from last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: - At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons or 32.34% from the previous month, and a decrease of 43.87%. As of the end of September, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month [64]. - In September 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50% year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [71]. - **Demand Side**: - As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were reported at 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [74]. - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [79]. - As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were reported at 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month increase of 6.90% [83]. 3.4. Options and Stock - related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is shown in the figure of the implied volatility of the underlying of the main cotton contract [84]. - **Stock Market**: The figure shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. [87]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预期恢复，关注中美谈判结果新指引。目前现货油厂销售压力 | | 豆粕 | | 下降，存在挺价心理。中美会晤结果有关关税方面，略有调整，但目前的关税情况 | | | 短线震荡 | 依然导致美豆没有进口优势，对国内豆粕成本端支持依然存在，利空美豆。豆粕主 | | ★ | | 力合约大区间行情对待，短期震荡整理下，主力和远月可以关注调整后的短多机会 | | | | 关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线震荡 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，10 月，11 月马棕榈油预计持续累库。印尼增产 | | 棕榈油 | 短线回落 | 以及市场对于 B50 的质疑，利空棕榈油走跌。但考虑印尼生柴政策仍在，配合国内 | | ★ | | 棕榈油进口成本，棕榈油进一步可 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251031：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/10/31 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,155.00 | -0.16% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 145.00 | 15.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 54,950.00 | -0.07% | | 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | -3,950.00 | 40.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fuel oil has weakened compared to the previous period, and its volatility continues to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil remains stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded again [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: For FU2511, the closing price was 2,968 yuan/ton with a daily decline of - 0.07%, and the settlement price was 2,968 yuan/ton with a decline of - 1.30%. For LU2511, the closing price was 3,231 yuan/ton with no change, and the settlement price was 3,231 yuan/ton with a decline of - 1.58% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of FU2511 was 3 lots with a decrease of 165 lots, and the open interest was 4,849 lots with a decrease of 3 lots. The trading volume of LU2512 was 17,998 lots with a decrease of 5,486 lots, and the open interest was 17,703 lots with a decrease of 3,970 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) were 37,890 with no change, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 4,960 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Singapore FOB, the price of 3.5%S fuel oil was 372.7 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of - 2.70%, and the price of 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel oil was 437.2 US dollars/ton with a decline of - 1.05% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The settlement spread of FU11 - 12 was 143 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread of LU11 - 12 was - 15 yuan/ton. The spread between LU2510 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) increased by 33.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Trend Strength - The trend strength of fuel oil is 0, and the trend strength of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Oscillation**: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have short - term oscillatory trends. For bean meal, due to potential rainfall in Brazil and uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations, it's recommended to participate in short - term trading cautiously. Rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and lacks new driving factors, so it follows the trend of bean meal [1][4]. - **Short - term Decline**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are likely to experience short - term declines. Palm oil is affected by Indonesia's production increase and requests to cancel the B50 plan. Soybean oil has high inventory and follows palm oil's decline. Rapeseed oil has low mill operation rates and a lack of clear driving factors, remaining in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Upturn Under Pressure**: Cotton prices face upward pressure. Although there is some support at the bottom from India's MSP, the market is affected by increased supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries and weak downstream demand [1][14]. - **Cautious Bearish Outlook**: For jujubes, currently, the market is highly volatile due to capital influence. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, but it's recommended to gradually reduce short positions as the premium is being repaired [1][18]. - **Rebound and Sell - Short**: The pig market is expected to have a short - term rebound, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. It's advisable to sell short on rebounds, considering the increasing supply pressure in Q4 and the gradual stabilization of terminal demand [1][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3045.71 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 155.2285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.71 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, a decrease of 15.3 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 751.29 million tons, a decrease of 17.41 million tons. The bean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, an increase of 7.84 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 7.95 days, an increase of 0.03 days. The spot price of bean meal increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, but the market procurement sentiment was weak [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2533.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%. The national average rapeseed crushing profit was - 404.261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.79 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: As of October 24, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. The unexecuted contracts increased by 0.03 million tons. The demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season due to the decline in water temperature [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8842 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day. The national average price was 8803 yuan/ton, down 1.89%. The weekly commercial inventory was 60.71 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons [7]. - **Production and Export**: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month, and different institutions reported different trends in export volume [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main cotton contract (CF2601) was 13620 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% from the previous day. The national commercial cotton inventory was 184.16 million tons, an increase of 41 million tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over 70% complete. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection are over 70% complete, and the export has accelerated. In China, the new cotton harvest is expected to be completed in about a week. The downstream demand is weak, with the spinning mill and weaving mill operation rates lower than the same period last year [12][13]. Jujubes - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main jujube contract (CJ2601) was 10495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9103 tons, an increase of 94 tons [15]. - **Market Situation**: Some jujube - producing areas have started the harvest, and the market is expected to be in a loose supply situation. The current new jujube purchase price is mainly in the range of 6.5 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [17]. Pigs - **Price and Inventory Information**: The futures price of the main pig contract (1h2601) was 12185 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, an increase of 56.61 million heads [19]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the pig supply pressure is expected to increase in Q4, and the terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. The slaughter rate of key enterprises decreased slightly, and the pork sales volume increased [20][21].

2025 年 10 月 30 日 尿素：基本面有压力，宏观偏强，震荡博弈 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,644 | 1,635 | 9 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,643 | 1,635 | 8 | | | | | 成交量 （手） | 150,565 | 102,573 | 47992 | | （01合约） | | | 持仓量 （手） | 270,349 | 273,001 | -2652 | | | | | （吨） 仓单数量 | 0 | 2,970 | -2970 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 494,776 | 335,420 | 159355 | | | | | ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA5 line, and the optimistic sentiment dominates the market, leading to the relatively strong operation of ore prices [1]. - Although the ore price is running at a high level, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved. The supply is relatively high and the demand is weakening, so the upward driving force is not strong. Caution should be exercised when bullish at high levels, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The reference view is to pay attention to the support of the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the optimistic sentiment dominates and the ore price runs strongly [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production has weakened, and the demand from mines has continued to decline. The contradiction in the steel market has not been alleviated, and the expectation of weakening demand remains unchanged [2]. - Affected by weather factors, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has unexpectedly declined, but overseas ore shipments remain at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will return to a high level. Coupled with the stable production of domestic mines, the supply pressure of ore is relatively large [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot prices strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is -875, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both decreasing, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral state [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 29th. The basis weakened on October 29th [8][35]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both in a state of continuous destocking [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and tire industry exports have reached new highs for the same period [23][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].