Core Viewpoint - Knight Dairy has faced significant penalties due to substantial losses in futures trading and failure to disclose this information in a timely manner, leading to warnings and fines from regulatory authorities [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Losses and Penalties - In 2024, Knight Dairy engaged in futures trading for commodities such as soybean meal, sugar, and urea, resulting in cumulative losses of up to 41.12% of its 2023 audited net profit by the end of the year [2][3]. - The total penalties imposed by the Inner Mongolia Securities Regulatory Bureau amount to 3.4 million yuan, with specific fines for the chairman and other executives totaling 340,000 yuan [1][3]. - As of January 17, 2024, the cumulative losses from futures trading reached 902.46 million yuan, representing 12.60% of the 2022 audited net profit [2]. Group 2: Company Operations and Strategy - Knight Dairy, established in 1992, operates across the entire dairy supply chain, including feed crop planting, dairy farming, dairy processing, and sugar production, and was listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in October 2023 [5][6]. - The company has been increasing investments in upstream industries, aiming to expand its sugar project and optimize its agricultural and dairy supply chain over the next 3-5 years [5][6]. - Despite a decline in milk prices, Knight Dairy has continued to invest in its livestock business, with recent capital injections into its wholly-owned subsidiary [6]. Group 3: Market Environment and Risks - The dairy industry has been facing challenges, with milk prices in major producing provinces averaging 3.32 yuan per kilogram in 2024, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year [7]. - The sugar market is also volatile, influenced by futures market fluctuations, natural disasters, and policies from major importing and exporting countries, which can lead to revenue instability [7].

2025/7/9 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,900.00 -0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,160.00 -0.29% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -260.00 -25.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -40.00 15.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -23.04 2.27 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -60.80 -0.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -55.00 -10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -30.00 -15.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 - 15.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 35,649.00 21.23% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 51,617.00 1.12% 成交持仓比 / 0.69 19.89% LME库存 吨 0.00% 258,075.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 47,713.00 1.92% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,044.00 0.32% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.40 -0.61% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 21,970.00 -1.04% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,050 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗有所减量，相对利好的是仍处年内高位， 给予矿价支撑。与此同时，港口到货虽有所回升，但矿商发运则是持续大幅减量，多因财年末结束， 相应的内矿生产弱稳，矿石供应迎来收缩，关注持续性情况。总之，乐观情绪发酵，矿价震荡走高， 但目前供需 ...

2025年7月8日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 7 日，A 股四大股指多数下行，其中上证指数上涨 0.02%，报收 3473.13 点；深成指 下跌 0.7%，报收 10435.51 点；创业板指下跌 1.21%，报收 2130.19 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.66%， 报收 978.29 点。市场成交 12,271 亿元，较前日减少 2,275 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+2.57%)， 公用事业(+1.87%)，房地产(+1.68%)涨幅居前；煤炭(-2.04%)，医药生物(-0.97%)，通信(-0.77%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,254/185/1,977。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-42、-98、-18、158 亿元，分别变动+44、+52、-34、-62 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 139.14、96.01、37.77 与 23.13 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-18.33%、-13.56%、-7.94%与-7.06%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX: Go for positive spread trading in calendar spreads and short PXN on rallies. With the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant scheduled for maintenance in August, the PX supply - demand pattern is tight, and positive spread trading in calendar spreads is recommended at low levels. PXN is at a high valuation with a weakening trend [9]. - PTA: Conduct reverse spread trading in calendar spreads. From mid - July, supply will gradually ease as Yisheng Hainan increases its load and Sanfangxiang's PTA plant starts production, while polyester production cuts are on the way. With supply increasing and demand decreasing, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory, so reverse spread trading in calendar spreads is advisable [9]. - MEG: Do positive spread trading in basis and calendar spreads, and avoid shorting on valuation. After the ethane bis certification is passed, the raw material supply of domestic ethane cracking plants will be sufficient again, and the 09 contract may weaken relatively, causing the calendar spread to decline significantly. However, the further downward space of the 9 - 1 spread may be limited. Overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and imports are expected to be tight in August. Although port inventory has increased recently, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the basis is still strong. Positive spread trading in the 9 - 1 spread at low levels is recommended, and going long on the single - side at low levels is advisable [9][10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The naphtha price rebounded at the end of the session, and the August MOPJ is currently estimated at $574/ton. The PX price rebounded slightly today, with an August Asian spot deal at $851 and a September Asian spot deal at $837. The PX price is estimated at $842/ton, up $2 from last Friday. The expected commissioning of Sanfangxiang's new 3.2 million - ton/year PTA plant in the third quarter has boosted market sentiment, but due to weak upstream crude oil and the expectation of supply relief, the upside potential may be limited. The operating rates of PX producers in South Korea and China seem to be rising, and Hanwha Total in South Korea will shut down its 1.2 million - ton/year PX plant for maintenance starting in August, expected to last for two months [4][6][7]. - PTA: A 2 million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to 50% at the beginning of the month and has now returned to normal operation [7]. - MEG: A 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang restarted production recently and is currently operating at near - full capacity. The port inventory of MEG in East China is about 580,000 tons, up 35,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, with the average sales volume estimated to be less than 40% as of 3:30 pm today, and the average sales volume of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is 51% as of 3:00 pm [8][9]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [9] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 6684, 4710, 4279, 6518, and 502.3 respectively. The price changes were 6672, 0, 2, 4, and - 1.2, and the percentage changes were 12, 0.00%, 0.05%, 0.06%, and - 0.24% respectively. The calendar spreads of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF8 - 9, and SC8 - 9 yesterday were 108, 70, - 26, 120, and 3.8 respectively, with price changes of 18, 10, 10, 4, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were $841.67/ton, 4790 yuan/ton, 4347 yuan/ton, $577/ton, and $71.3/barrel respectively, with price changes of $2, - 45 yuan, - 14 yuan, - 1.75 dollars, and $0.57 respectively. The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were $260.92/ton, 300.03 yuan/ton, 273.8 yuan/ton, - 479.2 yuan/ton, and - 7.42 dollars respectively, with price changes of - 10.38 dollars, 10.84 yuan, 13.7 yuan, 15.7 yuan, and 0 dollars respectively [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月7日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、预期：上周PTA装置检修重启并行，当前市场供需矛盾并不突出，且社会库存处于偏低水平，预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随 成本端震荡调整，现货基差快速下行后托底效应或将显现。关注OPEC+会议结果及聚酯负荷波动。 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主。下周货在09+90~105有成交，价格商谈区间在4800~4870附近。7月中在09+95~100有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09+97。中性 2、基差：现货4872，09合约基差125，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.95天，环比减少0.14天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均 ...

【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2507 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | PF07-08 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ୧୧38 | ୧୧୨୧ | -58 | | 124 | 132 | -8 | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6514 | 6564 | -50 | PF08-09 | 116 | 62 | 54 | | | 短纤2509 | 6398 | 6502 | -104 | PF基差 | 196 | 166 | 30 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 274949 | 278208 | -3259 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 710 | 6. 730 | -20 | | | 短纤成交量 | 196980 | 182889 | 14091 | 短纤产销率 | 46% | 42% | 4% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2507 | 5958 | 5968 | -10 | PR07-08 | 40 | 22 | 18 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

| | | | Million | 国投前货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品 ...

2025 年 7 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 黄金：非农表现超预期 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 778.92 | 0.67% | 775.68 | -0.40% | | | 黄金T+D | 775.81 | 0.71% | 771.12 | -0.50% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3336.00 | -0.97% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8944 | 2.24% | 8926.00 | 0.67% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8929 | 2.18% ...