以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者轱辘慧 财经连环话 . 一张图看懂财经万象，专业财经，轻松看懂。唯一正牌官方号。 来源|财经连环话 美联储主席解职风波再起。当地时间7月15日，美国国会共和党议员安娜·保利纳（Anna Paulina）在社交媒体X平台爆料称，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍 威尔"即将被解雇"。 保利纳的爆料并非空穴来风。此番风波发生在微妙时刻，鲍威尔领导的美联储正面临降息路径的关键抉择，而特朗普已多次公开施压要求大幅降息以 刺激经济。 特朗普对鲍威尔本人的不满则更为直接且尖锐。今日，他再次公开批评这位由他本人提名的主席，并将矛头指向美联储总部耗资巨大的翻修工程。特 朗普暗示该项目成本超支"相当可耻"，甚至可能构成"被解雇的行为"。不过，他并未明确表示计划因此罢免鲍威尔。 截至发稿，白宫与美联储均未对保利纳议员关于鲍威尔"即将被解雇"的说法作出正式回应 01 继任者遴选程序正式启动 彭博社16日报道，据三位知情人士透露，特朗普政府已启动美联储主席遴选程序，白宫首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）成为接替现任 主席鲍威尔的头号人选。 这场被美媒戏称为"白宫版《学徒》"的角逐中，哈塞特与前美 ...

另一方面，低于3320美元区域的弱势，或周二触及的周低谷，更有可能在3300美元附近找到像样的支 撑。其次是3283-3282美元区域，或超过上周二触及的一周低点，如果被突破，黄金将容易加速向7月份 的低点3248-3247美元区域附近的回调。晚间布局如下： 黄金反弹3340空，止损3352，目标3300，破位看3290 白银方面：周三（7月16日）欧盘时段，现货白银震荡上涨，银价重新站上38美元关口，因美元和债券 收益率小幅回落，同时投资者消化了美国6月消费者物价上涨的数据，并等待美国总统特朗普的贸易政 策进一步明朗化。 来源：通鉴大师 周三（7月16日），周二，在温和的通胀报告引发美联储可能暂时维持利率不变的猜测后，美元指数持 续拉升，最终收涨0.54%，报98.596。现货黄金在CPI数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破3320美元关 口，最终收跌0.56%，收报3324.96美元/盎司，为连续第二个交易日走低；现货白银回落至38美元关口 下方，最终收跌1.15%，报37.7美元/盎司。 黄金晚间分析： 现货黄金维持了盘中的反弹上涨态势，尽管未能突破3350美元大关并缺乏进一步的上行动力。从技术角 度来看， ...

回顾本交易日，在美元和美债收益率回落的支撑下，国际黄金价格上涨。投资者消化了美国上月消费者价 格上涨的数据，并等待美国总统特朗普贸易政策的进一步明朗化。美元指数从一个月高位回落，使得黄金 对其他货币持有者更具吸引力，美国通胀的上行强化了美联储维持当前利率更长时间的预期，9月降息概 率从数据公布前的接近60%降至约52%。 对于晚间黄金走势的看法！ 黄金晃晃悠悠一天了，随说确实承压我们第一阻力位3343-45一线开始了下跌，但最低也就只到了3333一 线，下行力度还是有些偏弱，对于我们预期的目标还是有些差异的，那么当前来说趋势还是没变，短空的 思路依旧保留，但是晚间8.30有数据公布，不排除黄金会先涨再跌，那么点位就需要在做调整了！ 小时线均线已经走平，短线多空的趋势较为焦灼，那么我们二次开空的点位就在3355裸K起跌口，若是晚 间继续上升测试新高点，那么我们就需要在做新的调整，短线上论位置就是今天白盘的第一个3343，其次 就是3355的压力位，毕竟今天波幅有限，是否会直接下跌还是要看后续K线的运行形态！ 黄金：空单第一阻力3343-45，美盘破位上涨则看3355的阻力位置继续做进场，防守8美金左右，目标看向 ...

2025.07. 16 本文字数：2649，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第 一财经 高雅 在美国特朗普政府关税政策带来持续不确定性的背景下，美国经济怎么样了？ 根据美国劳工统计局7月15日公布的最新数据，6月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，为今年2 月以来的最高水平。消费端也显现疲软迹象，实际个人消费支出出现下滑，住房市场数据也表现低 迷。然而，就业市场仍然维持稳健，6月失业率小幅下降。 主要国际机构已纷纷下调美国经济增长预期。经合组织（OECD）6月将2025年美国国内生产总值 （GDP）增速预测从2.2%下调至1.6%，2026年进一步调降至1.5%；国际货币基金组织（IMF）4月 已将2025年增长预期下调0.9个百分点至1.8%。 针对当前复杂的经济形势，第一财经专访了上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授、美联储前高级经济 学家胡捷。他表示，市场普遍预期今年美国经济增速将回落至1.4%左右，这主要源于财政刺激效应 消退后，持续三年的高利率政策开始显现效果。"目前来看，美国经济增速放缓已成定局，各项经济 指标相较于前两年将呈现参差不齐的表现，整体呈现收缩趋势。"他称。 就关税政策对通胀的影响，胡 ...

2025.07. 16 本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储总部翻修工程成本超支足以成为解雇美 联储主席鲍威尔的理由。 特朗普当天在机场与记者交谈时，被问及装修问题是否构成"可被解雇的行为"，特朗普说："我认为 算是。" 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解雇他的美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特 朗普政府又频繁提及美联储花费25亿美元翻修办公大楼且"成本超支"一事，对鲍威尔"加码逼宫"。 "装修门"属陈年旧账 特朗普借此再提换人 美联储办公楼翻修项目自前总统约瑟夫·拜登当政时期开始动工。据美媒报道，项目在2019年的最初 预算为大约19亿美元。但由于木材、钢铁和水泥等建筑材料成本大幅上涨，预算增至近25亿美元。 本月2日，特朗普政府以"存在政治立场偏差"和"在国会作虚假陈述"为由，要求国会调查鲍威尔，指 控鲍威尔牵头的美联储总部建筑翻新项目存在重大违规嫌疑，搞豪华装修。他还称鲍威尔在接受国会 相关质询时刻意隐瞒事实、采取消极态度， 应当予以"免职追责" 。 在回应质询时，鲍威尔承认翻新项目支出超出预算，但否认豪华装修指控，辩称 翻新是为满 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon and cotton are recommended to be held with a bullish mindset, and there are good arbitrage opportunities in iron ore [1] - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation and accumulation of positive factors. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [2] - The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract [2][6] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the medium - term tight - balance pattern remaining unchanged [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside, while the medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged [6] - Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate in a range, and new orders can focus on the opportunity of selling call options at the upper edge of the range [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [8] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported by the expectation of anti - involution production cuts [8] - Steel prices are expected to see a slower upward slope, and the probability of steel futures prices returning to a volatile pattern increases [8] - Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate strongly, and strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - Soda ash prices will fluctuate, and a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 can be held [10][11] - Crude oil prices will continue to be highly volatile, with concerns about supply shortages easing [13] - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and a short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] - Polyolefin prices are expected to decline, and short - selling call options on the 09 - contract are recommended [13] - Cotton prices are supported by the expectation of supply tightness at the end of the year, but attention should be paid to the impact of the off - season and other factors [13] - Rubber prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand [13] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the A - share market continued to fluctuate and adjust. The ChiNext Index rose sharply, but the Shanghai Composite Index weakened. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 1.64 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.48 trillion yuan). The communication and computer sectors led the gains, while the coal and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors led the losses [2] - China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the economy showing an overall positive trend. Short - term incremental policies may not be introduced urgently. The market sentiment was boosted, and the trading volume of A - shares increased. The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, with short - term consolidation [2] Bond Futures - Yesterday, bond futures rebounded across the board. The economic growth is in line with expectations, and the real estate sector is still weak. The market's expectation of policy intensification has turned cautious [2] - The capital market has become looser, and the bond market has rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to remain at a high level with certain support but limited upside space [2] Gold and Silver - The US CPI slightly exceeded market expectations, but core inflation was still lower than expected. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in July has cooled down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [2] - The economic data of China and the US show resilience, and there is a driving force for the convergence of the gold - silver ratio. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the money put options on the 10 - contract [6] Copper - Recently, domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly [6] - LME copper inventories continued to increase, and the contango widened. Domestic inventories are still at a low level, and the spot price has a slight premium. The short - term upward pressure on copper prices due to tariffs may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged [6] Aluminum and Alumina - Domestic macro data are in line with expectations, and the market's expectation of policy intensification has become cautious. The US CPI slightly exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index continued to rise slightly. There is still uncertainty in US tariffs [6] - Alumina has an over - supply pattern with pressure on the upside. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [6] Nickel - The supply of nickel ore and ferronickel has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The demand for stainless steel and ternary batteries is weak [6] - The imbalance between supply and demand in the nickel market remains unchanged. Although there is some support from the Indonesian RKAB policy, there is currently no clear directional driver. Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] Lithium Carbonate - The supply of lithium carbonate remains loose, and the demand increment is relatively limited. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [8] Silicon Energy - There are expectations of production cuts in the silicon energy industry. The inventory of industrial silicon standard warehouse receipts is decreasing, and the downstream of polysilicon shows signs of price increases. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are strongly supported [8] Steel and Iron Ore - The economic data in June and the second quarter are good in total but poor in structure. The terminal demand expectation has weakened, and the contradiction in the steel market is not significant [8] - The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly and compress steel - making profits. Strategies such as short - selling out - of - the - money put options and 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage can be held [11] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has limited increment, and the demand is good. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long positions can be held [11] - The first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented this week. The spot market of coke is strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [11] Soda Ash and Glass - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the inventory of soda ash plants is increasing. The trading volume of floating glass is relatively stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [10][11] - It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast of global oil demand growth and economic growth in 2025. API data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The concern about supply shortages has eased, and oil prices will continue to be highly volatile [13] Methanol - The operating rate of methanol production enterprises has decreased to 83%, reaching the lowest level this year. The price trend of methanol depends on the arrival volume in August. A short - selling strategy of at - the - money straddle on the 09 - contract can be considered [13] Polyolefin - The domestic economy is developing steadily. The futures price of polyolefin has accelerated its decline, and the spot price has a limited decline. The supply will increase at the end of the month, while the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short - sell call options on the 09 - contract [13] Cotton - The domestic manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, and the overall commodity market sentiment is bullish. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight at the end of the year, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Cotton prices are supported by the supply expectation [13] Rubber - The terminal automotive market is in the off - season, and the demand for rubber is hindered. The supply of rubber raw materials is increasing seasonally, and the inventory at ports has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Rubber prices have limited upside space [13]

美国 6 月通胀：如期回升。 6 月美国 CPI 同比 2.7% （前值 2.4% ，市场预期 2.6% ）。核心 CPI 同 比回升 0.1 个百分点至 2.9% ，符合市场预期。 CPI 环比增速回升 0.2 个百分点至 0.3% （市场预期 0.3% ），核心 CPI 环比 0.2% （前值 0.1% ），略低于市场预期的 0.3% 。从结构上来看，能源分项 的上涨是推动 6 月通胀回升的主要动力。 报告导读： 6 月美国 CPI 增速如期回升，但核心 CPI 环比不及市场预期。关税对核心商 品的影响开始显现但总体仍较温和。未来几个月关税对通胀的传导仍将进一步释放， CPI 增速或进一步走高。美联储或仍将维持观望，短期内难以降息。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法 ...

白银紧跟黄金走势，突破近14年新高 GTC泽汇表示，2025年上半年金银大幅上涨超出多数机构预期，金价突破并稳定于3000美元上方，成为 当前市场的"新常态"。根据伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）最新发布的数据，分析师普遍修正全年预测， 认为金价全年守稳3000美元已无悬念。 年初，29位分析师预计2025年黄金均价仅为2735.33美元/盎司，而实际上半年LBMA黄金定盘价均值已 达3070.86美元，其中第二季度涨幅最为明显。GTC泽汇分析认为，推动金价持续走高的主要因素包括 美国关税政策、地缘紧张局势升温以及避险情绪增强。 分析师大幅上调预期，黄金后市仍偏强 进入下半年后，已有13位分析师更新预测，全年金价预期平均被上调至3159美元/盎司，涨幅达到 15.5%。与此同时，无一分析师预测金价会在年内跌破3000美元，显示市场对黄金的中长期走势普遍看 好。 GTC泽汇表示，市场焦点正在从突发地缘事件逐步转向更具结构性影响的宏观经济变量，如美联储的利 率路径、财政赤字扩大及美元疲软预期。这些因素将构成黄金价格的中期支撑力量。 在全年高点预测方面，分析师观点不一： 最高预期为4000美元/盎司最低则接近当前的34 ...

2025 年 7 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀可能小幅反弹 美国 6 月通胀回升，食品价格仍然高企，能源价格大幅反弹，核心通胀小幅回 升但低于市场预期。核心商品环比反弹，显示关税影响，其中进口依赖度较高 的家具、休闲商品和服装等价格显著上涨，但被新车与二手车价格下跌部分抵 消，因为消费需求走弱，供给竞争更加激烈。核心服务价格小幅反弹，移民劳 工占比较高的医疗、休闲和杂项服务通胀明显回升，显示特朗普移民政策影 响。数据公布后，市场对降息预期小幅下降，7 月利率不变概率升至 96%，全 年降息幅度从 48bp 小幅降至 44bp。预计美国通胀可能在第三季度小幅反弹， 而后逐渐回落。预计美联储 7 月将保持利率不变，同时会对关税影响做出初步 判断并给出未来降息的条件指引。本月就业数据受季节性地方政府教师招聘的 影响较大，但就业市场整体需求已有走弱迹象，我们维持美联储可能在 9 月降 息一次，10 月或 12 月再降一次的预测。 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi ...

昨日周二我们认为，特朗普挥舞关税大棒，避险买盘支撑黄金短线维持反弹趋势，市场焦点则开始集中在当晚的美国CPI数据，由于 关税政策导致物价上涨，市场预计6月CPI数据可能创造今年最大单月涨幅，这可能迫使美联储保持谨慎降息的态度，对美元有利并 打压金价，不过高通胀也可能加强避险对黄金形成支撑，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注3340美元，失守这里可能加大短线回落 风险，上方压力关注3365和3374美元，向上突破关注3400美元。 从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金继续向上试探，涨至3365美元遇阻后，金价震荡回落，美盘开盘，黄金加速下跌，最低跌至3320美 元，企稳后金价保持3320到3331美元区间横盘震荡。周三开盘，黄金回落3321美元后，企稳展开反弹，目前暂时交投于3341美元附 近。总体看，市场对美国CPI数据上升的预期，以及公布值显示美国CPI数据上升，为黄金在美盘盘前以及开盘后下跌，创造了条 件，不过高通胀也加强了避险，这支撑了金价在日内的反弹。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，美国总统特朗普宣布将在8月1日起加征关税，并陆续公布了对欧盟、日本和韩国等国家和地区加 征的关税水平，这加强了市场对 ...