Group 1: Nvidia Financial Results - Nvidia reported a loss of approximately $4.5 billion due to U.S. government chip export restrictions, which is lower than the company's previous expectations [2] - The company's revenue growth rate for the quarter fell to 69%, the lowest in two years, but key metrics such as total revenue, earnings per share, and gross margin slightly exceeded Wall Street expectations [2] - The data center business, which includes AI computing chips, experienced a significant slowdown in revenue growth, but Nvidia anticipates that its new Blackwell Ultra chip products will begin shipping this quarter, potentially boosting revenue and gross margin in the future [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock initially dropped 0.51% but surged by 4.5% in after-hours trading [2] - The overall market sentiment was cautious, with the three major U.S. stock indices closing lower, reflecting concerns over rising U.S. fiscal deficits and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with over 40% of bond funds reaching historical net value highs as of May 26, 2023 [1][2] - The Wind medium to long-term pure bond index reached a historical high of 2515.42 points on May 26, 2023, with a 0.25% increase over the past month and 0.81% over the past three months [1] - The bond market has attracted significant inflows, with a total net inflow of over 310 billion yuan into 29 bond ETFs since May [3] Group 2 - Several bond funds have reported strong returns, with 2986 products achieving historical net value highs, and many funds showing returns exceeding 3% over the past three months [2] - The recent influx of capital into the bond market has led to the emergence of several "popular" bond funds, with notable fundraising successes [2] - The short-term bond ETF has become particularly popular, with net inflows exceeding 58 billion yuan in May, indicating a preference for short-term, liquid investment options [3] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to maintain its long-term investment value due to the People's Bank of China's continued accommodative monetary policy [4] - The long-end interest rates have shown a downward trend, and the market is currently assessing the impact of external disturbances on the economy [4] - The credit bond market is experiencing a steepening yield curve, with mid to long-term credit bonds becoming increasingly attractive for investment [4]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【固收 】 转债市场信用冲击风险可控 2024 年 6-8 月转债市场发生信用冲击，评级下调只是诱因，深层次原因在于权益市场持续下跌。 2024 年共有 64 只转债被下调评级， 6 月为评级下调的高峰，达到 40 只。 2022 年 6 月和 2023 年 6 月被 下调评级的转债数量分别为 25 只和 26 只，但均未引发市场的剧烈反应。因此，评级下调只是诱因， 2024 年转债大面积跌破面值的深层次原因在于，权益市场 2022-2024 年持续下跌，转债的平价整体处 于低位，同时， 2024 年权益市场退市规则进一步趋严、个别转债信用风险暴露、正股上涨预期趋弱、大 量转债即将进入回售期或到期，当平价和债底均无法支撑转债的价格，转债的定价锚失效，转债的供需平 衡迅速被打破。过度悲观带来的超卖行为导致大量转债被错误定价。 下调评级的理由通常是几方面的结合： 行业格局恶化，景气度走弱；连续 2 年亏损，或首年亏损幅度较 大（盈利能力大幅恶化），存在商誉减值、存货和营收款减值等侵蚀利润的风险；偿债指标较差，负债率 较高，未来资本支出较高，显示偿债能力较弱；负 ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates exhibited some divergence [1] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.04% to 119.400, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.730 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.705% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.74 basis points to 3.974% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.3 basis points to 1.514% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4792%, 1.7059%, and 1.7985% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities, respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate declining by 4.1 basis points to 1.411% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities indicated that uncertainty may persist in the economic landscape through 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year [6] - China International Capital Corporation noted that credit bond supply may continue to recover, while short-term credit spreads are at historically low levels [7]

Group 1 - The essence of "patient capital" is a high risk appetite, as statistics show that 70-80% of venture investments fail, indicating that true patient capital must be willing to invest in risky ventures [2][3] - A thriving capital market is a prerequisite for the existence of patient capital, meaning that market prosperity leads to patient capital rather than the other way around [2][6] - The term "patient capital" may create a narrative trap, as it can be misleading to equate patience with patient capital; true patient capital involves a willingness to take risks rather than merely having a long investment horizon [2][3] Group 2 - Wealthy individuals are the primary source of patient capital, as they inherently possess a higher risk appetite, which contributes to the static wealth effect [4] - Pensions are currently a major source of patient capital in the U.S., but they are not naturally inclined to support high-risk investments due to regulatory restrictions and investment strategies focused on matching liabilities [5][6] - The relationship between patient capital and market prosperity is dynamic; a strong market encourages the formation of patient capital, rather than patient capital driving market growth [6] Group 3 - An ideal fundraising structure for venture capital should be based on both dynamic and static wealth effects, requiring technical support and regulatory adjustments to enhance the overall fundraising environment [7] - Government-backed funds currently account for over half of venture capital fundraising, indicating a need for careful management of government involvement to avoid excessive risk aversion [7] - The establishment of a high-yield bond market that aligns with the high-risk nature of technology innovation could potentially enhance the attractiveness of private equity investments, although the lack of public funding support may hinder this [7]

Group 1 - The overall bond market is experiencing weakness due to improved market risk appetite from unexpected outcomes in US-China trade talks, leading to a negative impact on the bond market [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has adjusted to 1.7%, with a recent peak of 1.69%, indicating that the current bond market adjustment is nearing its end [1] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and continuous net reverse repos, suggest a supportive monetary policy environment, maintaining reasonable liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - The expectation for new financial policies has cooled, with a focus on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, as the economy shows resilience [2] - In May, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 440 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, marking a record high for the year [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to expedite the approval of construction project lists by the end of June, indicating a proactive approach to infrastructure investment [2] Group 3 - The domestic economy continues to show signs of recovery, supported by growth-stabilizing policies and easing trade tensions, which may shift external demand pressures [4] - The bond market is expected to experience sideways movement in the short term, influenced by liquidity, policy, and economic conditions, with a focus on upcoming PMI data and central bank operations [4] - Long-term, the bond market remains in a "bull market" environment, with overall easing liquidity and concerns about external conditions affecting market expectations [4]

Group 1 - The auction of Japan's 40-year bonds faced the weakest market demand since July 2024, potentially increasing volatility risks in the global bond market [1] - The yield on the 40-year bonds remained stable before the auction, while the yield on 30-year bonds surged by 11 basis points, indicating a divergence in market reactions [1] - The auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.21, significantly lower than the 2.92 recorded in the March auction, reflecting weak demand from institutional investors [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance issued a rare survey to market participants regarding its bond issuance plans and current market conditions, indicating unusual timing and scope [2] - The upcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting on June 16-17 is expected to be a critical turning point, with discussions on further adjustments to bond purchase reductions anticipated [2] - The Ministry of Finance is expected to consider feedback from market participants to shape its future bond issuance strategy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

2025年5月28日，国债期货午盘多数下跌。30年期主力合约跌0.08%，10年期主力合约跌0.01%，5年期主力合约跌0.02%，2年期主力合约持平。 ETF方面，30年国债ETF博时(511130)多空胶着，最新报价111.41元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手10.17%，成交7.12亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长 时间看，截至5月27日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交24.31亿元。 资金天风期货指出，上周在税期和政府债供给扰动下，资金面边际收紧，带动短端小幅上行；而存款利率、LPR调降落地，债市走出利好出尽，长端收益率 小幅上行，中美关税暂缓之后，债市整体呈现震荡走势。后续来看，基本面仍然处于筑底阶段，支持性货币政策延续，债市大趋势仍未逆转。此外美国关税 政策也仍然存在较大不确定性，中国官方媒体也强调理性看待日内瓦经贸会谈成果，中美经贸冲突没有结束谈判必将艰难，市场避险情绪再度升温，对债市 形成利好。但短期内市场缺乏大的驱动因素，围绕资金面及机构行为等因素博弈，预计延续震荡走势。关注国内跨月资金面情况、基本面修复程度及持续 性，预计5月PMI偏强对债市形成扰动，国外方面关注美国关税政策及美联 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index opened up by 0.07% [1] - The Yunjin Convertible Bond rose over 3%, the Limin Convertible Bond increased nearly 3%, and the Fengshan Convertible Bond gained over 2% [1] - The Falan Convertible Bond experienced a decline of over 2% [1]