5月降息至今，银行负债端的"存款搬家"现象、同业存单到期续发压力、二季度自营账户投资收益考核 指标，一定程度上都正使其相应调整资产配置端行为。其中，大行的资金"水位"边际变化尤为关键，或 已成为影响现阶段债市走势的核心变量之一。 进入6月以来，债市再度走强的势头明显。 利率债成交行情"暖意"再现，截至6月12日发稿时，本月10年期国债活跃券收益率在窄幅震荡中延续下 行趋势，其收益率自5月29日1.6975%的高点一路下行，截至6月12日发稿时最低触及1.6350%，逐步逼 近去年年底创下1.6%附近的历史低位。 资料来源：DM 究其原因，今年以来，在外部扰动有限的情况下，商业银行资产负债端的流动性变化已成债市一大"主 线"。 一位国有行金融市场部人士告诉记者："最近大行融出量确实挺大的，上周央行开展买断式逆回购后， 压力已经小了很多。个人对后市看法还是偏多头，中长债的配置吸引力相对会强一些。不过10年期国债 1.6%的前低关口可能要突破还是比较难，预计现阶段就是在几个BP之间来回做波段交易吧。" 资金面压力缓解 同业存单降价拐点初现 记者注意到，本月4.2亿元"天量"到期的同业存单曾一度成为悬在债市投资人士心 ...

【行情跟踪】 机构认为，关税问题变量可能会在风险偏好层面对长端利率形成扰动；同时，7月政治局会议可能会成 为阶段性的政策观察期。预计短期债市难改小幅震荡格局，关注后续基本面数据的预期差影响。 新华财经北京6月12日电 债市周四（6月12日）重回偏弱整理，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间现券收 益率振幅在0.5BP左右震荡；公开市场单日净回笼72亿元，短端资金利率普遍延续上行。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.07%报120.490，10年期主力合约跌0.04%报108.995，5年 期主力合约跌0.04%报106.125，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.444。 国开行3年、7年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.5380%、1.6924%，全场倍数分别为1.42、5.86，边际倍数 分别为8.82、32.5。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，6月12日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1193亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量1193亿元，中标量1193亿元。数据显示，当日1265亿元逆回购到期，据此计算， 单日净回笼72亿元。 银行间主要利率债收益率基本持稳、中短债偏弱，10年期国开 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial - bond sector is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally at a high level throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.23%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02%. The treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Transaction - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated horizontally at a high level. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.23%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with 214.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Wednesday was basically the same as the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.36% the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.53% (1.51% the previous trading day) [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on Wednesday declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.45 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.30 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year decreased by 1.49 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.05 BP to 1.85% [1] - On June 11, Li Chenggang, China's chief trade negotiator and vice - minister of commerce, said that at the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, both sides had professional, rational, in - depth, and candid communication. Both sides in principle reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5 and the Geneva talks. The progress of the London talks is beneficial for further enhancing mutual trust between China and the US, promoting the stable and healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations, and injecting positive energy into the global economy [1] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year (estimated 2.4%, previous value 2.3%); month - on - month it increased by 0.1% (estimated 0.2%, previous value 0.2%). The US core CPI in May increased by 2.8% year - on - year (estimated 2.9%, previous value 2.8%); month - on - month it increased by 0.1% (estimated 0.3%, previous value 0.2%) [1] Market Logic - China's exports denominated in US dollars in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 6.2% and the previous value of 8.1%, but still maintained relatively fast positive growth. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The price level remained low, which is beneficial for bond market bulls [1] - On June 11, China issued a press release on the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, indicating that both sides had positive communication. Although there was no joint statement like the previous Geneva talks, it still showed a positive side. On Wednesday, both China's stock market and bond market rose, without a one - way impact on risk preference [1][2] Trading Strategy - Transaction - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is experiencing active trading and positive net inflows, indicating strong market interest despite a stable policy environment and limited expectations for short-term interest rate changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.17%, with the latest price at 124.07 yuan [1]. - The ETF has a trading volume of 18.77 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.24%, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The current size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 182.87 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The latest net inflow for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 1.71 billion yuan, with 13 out of the last 21 trading days showing net inflows totaling 22.69 billion yuan, averaging 1.08 billion yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Current market conditions are characterized as a policy window period with a calm domestic news environment, and the implied expectations for interest rate cuts are low [1]. - Recent PMI data suggests that the economic fundamentals have not yet reached a turning point, and trade outlook remains uncertain, providing support for the bond market [1]. - Internationally, comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate that the path to interest rate cuts may not be smooth, with rates expected to remain elevated for an extended period [1]. Group 4: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, serving as a benchmark for this category of bonds [2]. - The ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low entry barriers for individual investors and high trading efficiency with T+0 transactions [2]. - Multiple market makers provide liquidity, ensuring that trades can be executed promptly without a lack of counterparties [2].

// 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金依旧宽松，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率再度下行超 1 个 bp ，至 1.36% 附近，七天质押式回购利率下行不足 1 个 bp 。 （IMM） 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.29% 。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1986 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1986 亿元，中标 量 1986 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 4545 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼 2559 亿元。 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近，较上日有所下行。 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） | | 1Y | | 2Y | | 3Y | | 5Y | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

新华财经上海6月10日电（记者杨溢仁）在央行呵护资金面态度愈发明确、关税调整不确定性尚存的大 背景下，债市多头情绪开始逐渐占据上风。 分析人士认为，6月仍可保持看多方向不变，10年期国债收益率的下限或在1.5%附近，各机构可继续关 注久期策略。 多重利好叠加发酵 近期，债市迎来多重利好"加持"。 首先，是来自基本面的支撑依旧未曾缺席。根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年5月，CPI同比下降 0.1%，1月至5月CPI累计同比下降0.1%；5月PPI同比下降3.3%，1月至5月PPI累计同比下降2.6%。 "CPI同比持续处于1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，这为下半年货币政策持续加力 提供了充分的政策空间。"一位机构交易员向记者表示，"此外，5月PPI同比跌幅较上月大幅扩大0.6个 百分点，一方面是由于新涨价动能持续减弱，另一方面也因翘尾因素对PPI同比的拖累有所加深。鉴于 基本面的复苏难言一蹴而就，则当前债市所处环境依旧'友好'，仍可保持'看多'方向。" "利率下行最主要的驱动力为实体回报率的下行，未来几个月物价走弱决定了实体能够接受的融资成本 还将下降。"国盛证券研究所固收首席分析师杨业伟 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market basically operated within the desirable range of 1.65% - 1.70% last week. The weak inflation data in May further accumulated momentum for monetary policy easing. The fixed - income market will continue to follow the logic centered on the central bank's monetary policy path, and future breakthrough points need to be explored from the perspectives of continuous weakening of domestic demand and further reduction of policy interest rates [3][18]. - In May, both the year - on - year and month - on - month CPI decreased, and the PPI remained at a relatively low level in the negative range. The low - price phenomenon is still severe [2][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Data Review of Last Week - **Funding Rates**: DR001 dropped from 1.48% on May 30 to 1.41% on June 3 and remained stable at this level on June 6; R001 fell from 1.57% on May 30 to 1.46% on June 3 and closed at 1.45% on June 6; DR007 declined from 1.66% on May 30 to 1.55% on June 3 and closed at 1.53% on June 6; FR007 decreased from 1.75% on May 30 to 1.59% on June 3 and closed at 1.56% on June 6 [7]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, injecting 930.9 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1602.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 671.7 billion yuan [7]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond interest rate spread showed different trends at short and long ends. The 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 255BP, with a slight reduction in the inversion; the 2 - year and 10 - year spreads were - 262BP and - 285BP respectively, with an expansion in the inversion [12]. - **Term Spread and Yield Curve**: The term spread of Chinese bonds widened, and the yield curve steepened downward; the term spread of US bonds contracted, and the yield curve flattened upward [14]. 2. Continued Weakening of May Inflation Data - **CPI**: In May, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.1%, remaining stable for three consecutive months. The year - on - year CPI of food items was - 0.4%, continuing to decline from the previous value of - 0.2%, while the non - food items remained the same as last month. The core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI was - 0.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value and back to the negative range [1][19]. - **PPI**: In May, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.3%, with the decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value. The month - on - month PPI was - 0.4%, remaining in a negative growth state. Overall, the year - on - year and month - on - month CPI and PPI in May were in a relatively low negative range, and the low - price phenomenon was still severe [2][22][27]. 3. Key Bond Market Events of Last Week - **China - UK Economic and Financial Dialogue**: On June 8, 2025, He Lifeng, the Chinese co - chair of the China - UK Economic and Financial Dialogue, met with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt in London. They exchanged in - depth views on China - UK economic and financial cooperation and issues of common concern [28]. - **US Unemployment Rate**: In May, the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Non - farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, lower than the revised 147,000 in the previous month but higher than the market expectation of 129,000 [28].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is showing positive performance with a recent price of 123.87 yuan and a trading volume indicating strong liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Liquidity - As of June 10, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.05% [1]. - The ETF has a trading turnover of 4.34% with a total transaction value of 786 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.109 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Conditions - In the past 20 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 105 million yuan [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including May CPI and PPI, are expected to reflect weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, which may positively influence the bond market [2]. - The central bank's proactive measures, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signal a commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency [3]. - Individual investors can participate with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, ensuring immediate transaction execution [3].

回踩入场，最怕的就是真反转；突破入场，最怕的就是假突破。 在顺大势下，这些担心的"真反 转"和"假突破"，都已经变为小概率事件。我们不能为小概率事件缩手缩脚，而要为大概率系统严格执 行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025.06.09) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成义中 (亿 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.42 | 8 | 11/2 | 2. 00 | 115 | 67710. 16 | 213. 67 | 91.51 | | R007 | 1.54 | -1 | Non/ 1 | 2. 05 | 0 | 5248. 91 | -894. 45 | 7.09 | | R014 | 1.59 | -1 | 1 /VI | 2. 00 | 218 | 759. 37 | 115. 90 ...