交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日，美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议，原油立刻回落。供需 端，农膜淡季，包装膜需求转淡，多数企业降负荷，下游需求整体弱势，后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7500（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差56，升贴水比例0.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.6万吨（-1.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：L ...

2025年，国际局势的复杂程度远超想象。能源，这个关乎国家发展命脉的关键要素，在大国博弈中愈发 凸显其重要性。俄罗斯，作为传统能源强国，近年来却面临着不小的困境。西方持续的制裁、能源市场 价格的剧烈波动，让俄罗斯的经济发展受到了冲击，国库也逐渐吃紧。据俄罗斯官方公布的相关数据， 财政压力在各项开支下不断增大，而能源出口作为俄罗斯经济的重要支柱，其稳定性和增量显得尤为关 键。 普京（资料图） 在这样的背景下，中俄能源合作被赋予了更深层次的意义。2025年4月22日，中国国家能源局局长王宏 志与俄罗斯能源部部长齐维廖夫在北京会面，双方就中俄能源合作展开深入交流。中方表示，在两国元 首战略引领下，中俄能源合作成果丰硕，未来愿继续落实共识，推动合作迈向新高度；俄方则强调俄中 能源伙伴关系的战略性，渴望深化合作获取更多成果。这看似常规的外交会面，实则是俄罗斯在困境中 寻求突破、依赖与中国合作来缓解经济压力的重要体现。 而具体到合作项目上，石油供应成为了焦点。5月初，俄罗斯政府发布政令，将面向中国西部炼油厂的 石油供应上限从1000万吨提升至1250万吨，期限延长至2034年。这背后是中方提议将俄罗斯对华石油年 供应量增 ...

唐程发言 从清华课堂到中国田野，我在中国特色经济学的学习中感受到理论和现实的交响。如果说数学给了我望远镜，让我看清世界的运行规律；那么中国特色经 济学的学习则给了我多棱镜，让我从不同角度观察中国发展的光谱。在马弘老师的中国经济专题课堂上，我有幸从经济学学者的角度看我国宏观经济政策 的利与弊，健康经济的理论与实践，国际货币体系的历史和未来。我把这层思考带到清华乡村振兴的实践和调研中——在广东连南的千年瑶寨上，我看到 两山两碳发展模式如何重塑生态经济的生动实例；在江西龙南的百香果地中，我记录下产业政策对每个家庭的真切改变。这些经历让我深刻体会到，经济 学不仅是书本上的曲线交叉，更是发展不平衡中寻求最优解的智慧。 学科融合的火花在投资学和人工智能的交汇处尤为耀眼。记得在投资学课程上，授课老师将投资者分为风险厌恶型、风险中性型和风险偏好型三类，不同 的人对风险可能有不同的偏好。我不禁想，能否设计出一个智能算法，根据投资者不同的风险偏好自动调整投资策略？基于这个想法，我利用我所学习的 投资学和计算机知识开展了深入研究，最终提出并证明了一个具有理论保证的强化学习算法框架。这项创新性研究发表在人工智能领域的顶级期刊ICML ...

Group 1 - BlackRock, founded by Larry Fink, has evolved from a small firm to a global financial powerhouse, influencing national economies without direct political control [1][4][20] - The company’s rise was marked by the development of the Aladdin risk management system, which became crucial during the 2008 financial crisis, allowing BlackRock to manage assets effectively while competitors faltered [10][13] - BlackRock's acquisition of Barclays Global Investors in 2009 for $13.5 billion significantly increased its assets under management, making it the largest asset management firm globally [15] Group 2 - BlackRock's strategy in China began with its establishment as the first foreign wholly-owned public fund company, allowing it to directly raise capital and invest in A-shares [22] - The firm has made substantial investments in key sectors in China, including renewable energy and technology, while also seeking deeper involvement in corporate governance through data access and board observation rights [24][26] - The company's approach in China is characterized by a broad investment strategy combined with targeted acquisitions, raising concerns about its influence on sensitive technologies and national security [28][33] Group 3 - The growth of domestic asset management firms in China poses a competitive challenge to BlackRock, as these firms have seen significant growth in assets under management [31] - The Chinese government is increasingly focused on establishing its own financial infrastructure to counter the influence of foreign capital giants like BlackRock [31][33] - The ongoing financial dynamics between BlackRock and China highlight the need for a balance between capital flow and national security, emphasizing that open markets must be governed by sovereign rules [29][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Japan's significant holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and the implications of its financial strategy amidst rising U.S. debt and economic challenges, contrasting it with China's approach to reducing its U.S. bond holdings [1][3][5]. Group 1: Japan's Position - Japan holds $1.06 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest foreign holder, while China has reduced its holdings to over $700 billion [3]. - From 2022 to 2024, Japan has sold approximately $200 billion in U.S. bonds, indicating a lack of confidence in U.S. fiscal stability and its own financial situation [5]. - Japan's fiscal deficit and demographic challenges, such as a declining birth rate, exacerbate its economic vulnerabilities while it continues to purchase U.S. debt [5][9]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Dynamics - The U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion, with interest payments surpassing $1 trillion annually, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [5]. - The U.S. Treasury continues to issue new debt, relying on foreign holders like Japan to finance its obligations, creating a cycle of dependency [5][11]. - The article highlights the irony of Japan's situation, where it must continue to buy U.S. bonds despite recognizing the risks involved [9][11]. Group 3: China's Strategy - China is actively reducing its U.S. bond holdings and reallocating its foreign reserves towards gold, European bonds, and emerging market assets, signaling a strategic shift away from U.S. debt [7]. - This shift indicates China's desire to distance itself from U.S. financial markets, contrasting with Japan's continued reliance on U.S. bonds [7][13]. - The article suggests that if a crisis were to occur in U.S. debt markets, China may not be as adversely affected as Japan, which is more tightly bound to U.S. financial stability [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is fluctuating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern, affected by the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. It is expected to be range - bound, with the bottom supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but the upward space is limited by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations have reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. It is expected to fluctuate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile state, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal and the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, as well as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, have kept the soybean meal market volatile in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Multi - empty Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [13]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 11 to June 20, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed a certain degree of change [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 12 to June 20, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount slightly increased [17][22]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From June 10 to June 20, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal showed a decreasing trend [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, etc. in different periods from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is provided [32][33][37]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 show the changes in soybean harvest area, yield, production, inventory, etc. [40]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The main short positions in the soybean market have decreased, and funds have flowed in [10].

特朗普（资料图） 欧盟这边，内部矛盾重重。在能源政策上，更是上演了一场"自残式"的闹剧。欧盟决定禁止重启俄欧合 作的北溪二号天然气管道，这条耗资上百亿欧元的管道，承载着欧洲与俄罗斯能源合作的希望，如今却 成了政治博弈的牺牲品。欧盟这么做，本意是阻止美国企业修复管道后高价转售天然气给欧洲，可这也 意味着切断了自身获取廉价能源的重要渠道。要知道，欧盟长期依赖俄罗斯能源，俄乌冲突后，欧洲就 不得不高价购买美国能源，付出了巨大的经济和工业代价。如今禁止重启管道，更是让众多欧洲企业叫 苦不迭，它们迫切呼吁重启管道以满足能源需求，但欧盟却因意识形态偏见及对美不满坚持禁令，无异 于自断能源命脉。 而俄罗斯，面对美欧的步步紧逼，并没有坐以待毙。欧盟委员会在6月11日提出针对俄罗斯的第18轮制 裁方案，涉及能源、银行、军工等多个领域。在能源领域，不仅禁止欧盟运营商参与北溪天然气管道相 关交易，还将俄石油价格上限从每桶60美元下调至45美元，并计划在G7会议上讨论实施。俄罗斯也迅 速反击，普京签署命令将针对石油价格上限的反制措施延长至2025年12月31日，禁止向使用价格上限机 制的外国方供应石油及产品。 据环球网报道，美欧俄之 ...

2025年6月23日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 812.0 | 798.0 | 14.0 | 1.75% | | | 原木2509 | 797.5 | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | | | 原木2511 | 794.0 | 791.5 | 2.5 | 0.32% | | | 7-9价差 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 10.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | 18.0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -62.0 | -48.0 | -14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -47.5 | -44.0 | -3.5 | | | | 11合约基差 | -44.0 | -41.5 | -2.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 730.0 | 730.0 | 0 | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported that China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $8.2 billion in April, totaling a $27.1 billion sell-off in March and April combined, raising concerns in the U.S. about the future of its debt buyers [1] - The Trump administration's proposed "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, but the Federal Reserve's refusal to lower interest rates complicates the situation, as the U.S. still relies on China as a key buyer of its debt [1][5] - The overall U.S. debt market is facing challenges, with rising yields and falling prices indicating an oversupply and insufficient demand, leading to a decline in confidence in U.S. debt [5][7] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S.-China negotiations are focused on opening Chinese markets to U.S. goods, as China has significantly reduced its purchases of U.S. agricultural products and oil, which is a concern for U.S. lawmakers [3][9] - The U.S. Treasury's total debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a rapid increase of $1 trillion in less than six months, while foreign ownership of U.S. debt has decreased from 45% in 2014 to 28% in 2023 [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by multiple factors, including the need to stabilize prices and avoid political pressure, while also adjusting economic growth and inflation expectations [7][9]

日度报告——综合晨报 美袭击伊朗核设施，伊朗议会同意关闭霍尔 木兹海峡 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-23 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 万斯称："美国未与伊朗开战，我们是在与伊朗核计划作战" 美国袭击了伊朗核设施，表明了对于伊朗不能拥有核武器的态 度，目前来看美国不愿意陷入到战争中，但是地缘风险在明显 上升。 宏观策略（国债期货） 6 月 LPR 报价持稳 综 宽货币预期难被证伪，中短端品种也有走强的动力，曲线有望 继续走陡。 合 黑色金属（铁矿石） 晨 5 月中国出口汽车同比增 22.2% 报 现货累库叠加市场预期极差，现货持货意愿极低，港口铁矿石 现货预计仍将维持弱势，压制盘面难以反弹。整体行情预计维 持弱势震荡，且需求季节性走弱难以扭转。 有色金属（多晶硅） 2025 年 5 月多晶硅出口量环比上涨 66.2% 在龙头企业未减产之前，基本面对盘面仍是偏空指引。 能源化工（原油） 美国石油钻井总数下降 中东地缘冲突持续发酵，油价仍有上行风险。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F307 ...