贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

中信证券：在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临 近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率更大。 ...

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions to support the real economy [1] - Analysts predict that the second quarter is a ripe time for these monetary policy adjustments, with expected interest rate cuts of 0.3 percentage points and RRR cuts of 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [1] - The need for macroeconomic policy support is highlighted due to high actual interest rates and external economic pressures, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to boost consumer and business investment [1] Group 2 - The priority for releasing long-term liquidity tools remains with RRR cuts, which are expected to be implemented first as fiscal policies become more accommodative in the second quarter [2] - Interest rate cuts may face constraints from the yuan's exchange rate and banks' net interest margins, but the weakening of the dollar reduces immediate exchange rate pressures [2] - Overall, the monetary policy is expected to maintain a loose stance through 2025, with anticipated RRR cuts of about 1 percentage point and interest rate reductions of approximately 0.3 percentage points throughout the year [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Chinese macroeconomic environment** and **monetary policy** adjustments in response to internal and external pressures, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S. tariffs and the need for liquidity support. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Framework**: China's monetary policy operates under a flexible framework that balances multiple objectives, including economic growth, full employment, price stability, financial stability, and balance of payments. The prioritization of these goals can shift based on changing internal and external conditions [3][2][1]. - **Economic Challenges**: The second quarter of 2025 is expected to face challenges such as the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, slowing economic growth, and increased employment pressure. This necessitates a supportive liquidity environment [6][5][1]. - **Liquidity Conditions**: As of March 2025, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed net injections through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, indicating that liquidity has passed its tightest phase and is gradually becoming more accommodative [9][7][1]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The market interest rate DR007 has decreased from over 2% in January and February to approximately 1.63% by late April, suggesting improving liquidity but not yet reaching a fully accommodative state [10][1]. - **Future Monetary Policy Direction**: It is anticipated that the PBOC will continue net injections in MLF and reverse repos in the second quarter, with potential interest rate cuts expected to be confirmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions in June [11][4][1]. Additional Important Content - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: The Politburo has proposed new structural monetary policy tools aimed at directing bank credit towards technology, consumption, and foreign trade sectors, addressing capital gaps in major projects, and promoting credit expansion [12][4][1]. - **Historical Context**: Previous similar financial tools introduced in 2022 had significant impacts, with a total scale of 600 billion yuan supporting over 3.5 trillion yuan in credit expansion, indicating the potential effectiveness of new tools [14][1]. - **Potential Policy Adjustments**: If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in June or if there are significant pressures on the Chinese yuan, the PBOC may still implement rate cuts or guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards to support the real economy [16][17][1]. - **Overall Monetary Policy Status**: Currently, China's monetary policy is in a phase of easing, with expectations of a shift towards substantial easing in the second quarter, focusing on supporting economic growth and employment [18][1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, and there are three reasons why interest rates cannot decline: the central bank's restrained use of monetary policy, the short - end's inability to decline restricting the long - end's decline, and the lingering concern of negative Carry [2][3][10] - After the Politburo meeting, the trading directions include grasping the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations, considering the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing, and making appropriate strategy and position selections [14] - The bond market is about to confirm the economic fundamentals in April. Holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy. In May, the peak of fiscal supply and loose monetary policy may lower the capital interest rate center. One can also take advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and extend the duration [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the bond market's sideways trend and non - decline of interest rates - The central bank's restrained use of monetary policy suppresses the downward imagination space of short - term bonds. In the TS2506 futures contract, there are two stages: in the first stage, the expectation of loose money led to the steepening of the contract and a high IRR; in the second stage, the positive arbitrage strategy value emerged, and the short - end interest rate was difficult to decline under the influence of capital interest rates and central bank operations [3][5] - The short - end's inability to decline restricts the long - end's decline. The current yield curve is extremely flat, with the 10Y - 1Y term spread approaching the lowest level in nearly 3 years at 21bp [7][9] - Negative Carry is still a concern but has been significantly alleviated. Although it is not the main contradiction currently, it may intensify if the bond market continues to move sideways [10] Trading directions after the Politburo meeting - Grasp the central bank's operations and double - cut expectations. Considering factors such as the fiscal supply peak in May - June, the impact of tariffs on the economy in the second quarter, and the low leverage ratio in the bond market, one can take advantage of the central bank's care for liquidity to bet on the downward opportunity of the yield curve [14] - Consider the impact of external shocks on fundamental pricing. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions, holding bonds during holidays may be a better strategy, and the impact of fundamentals on interest rate increases is relatively limited [14] - Make appropriate strategy and position selections. After the tax - payment peak in April, the capital market is expected to be balanced and loose in May - June. One can extend the duration by taking advantage of the widening spread between 30Y - 10Y bonds and wait for the interest rate to decline [14]

Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 674 billion CNY this week, with a significant 600 billion CNY MLF operation on Friday, marking a net MLF injection of 500 billion CNY for April, the highest since 2024[2][6]. - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased by 0.01 trillion CNY to 6.34 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in market activity[14]. Interest Rate Trends - The DR007 rate fell to 1.64%, the lowest since mid-January, reflecting stable liquidity conditions despite the central bank's shift to net absorption in the latter half of the week[6][21]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has diminished, with the market showing a muted response to the political bureau's reiteration of "timely cuts" in monetary policy[21][22]. Government Debt Issuance - In April, the total issuance of government bonds reached 2.16 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 793.8 billion CNY, a decrease of approximately 680 billion CNY compared to March[29]. - The upcoming week will see a net repayment of government debt increasing from -130.1 billion CNY to 121.1 billion CNY, indicating a shift in cash flow dynamics[23][25]. Institutional Behavior - The net financing from banks returned above 3 trillion CNY, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity, although there is no intention to significantly lower funding costs in the short term[21][22]. - The cross-month progress of various institutions reached 37.7%, the highest level in five years, influenced by the unique trading calendar of April[18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The key to economic recovery lies in the direction of the cash - flow statement, not "policy exceeding expectations". The economy may continue to recover even without super - expected policies, and subsequent economic conditions may remain favorable [2][4] - The pre - condition for interest rate cuts is an economic downturn, which may not be met currently. If conditions are triggered, the central bank is more likely to cut interest rates by 10BP [6] - There is an upward risk for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. The report is optimistic about the convertible bond market in 2025, favoring domestic demand in the second and third quarters and external demand in the fourth quarter [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Recovery and Policy Impact - Economic recovery does not rely on "policy exceeding expectations". For example, from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, there were no super - expected policies, but the economy exceeded market expectations. Also, past policy measures like interest rate cuts and special bond issuances did not always lead to positive market responses [2][3] - The key to economic recovery is the direction of the cash - flow statement. Fiscal policy (accelerating bond issuance and use), debt resolution methods (expanding cash - flow statements after September 2024), and monetary policy (moderately rising social financing stock growth) all contribute to economic recovery. Incremental policies in finance, currency, and real estate are expected to further expand the cash - flow statement [4] - Although exports may decline due to US tariffs, the decline may be better than expected. After Q4 2024, with the cash - flow statement turning upward and policy support, the economy may maintain a good level [5] Interest Rate Cut Conditions - "Timely" and "opportunistic" for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are just different in applicable levels. The condition for "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the Politburo meeting may be an obvious downward economic trend. As the economy has not shown a significant downward trend in the past 5 months, the measure has not been implemented. If the economy stabilizes and recovers in Q2 and Q3 2025, the condition for interest rate cuts may not be triggered. If triggered, the central bank may cut interest rates by 10BP [6] Bond Yield and Convertible Bond Market - The current pricing of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield implies a significant decline in DR007 or OMO interest rate cuts. If the capital interest rate does not decline significantly from late April to May, there is an upward risk for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. The triggers for bond yield increases may include capital, economic, and stock market factors [6][7] - The report is optimistic about the convertible bond market in 2025. If the market corrects after the April 2025 Politburo meeting, it may present an opportunity similar to that in January 2025. It favors domestic demand in the second and third quarters and external demand in the fourth quarter, with possible reasons including China's industrial chain trends, China - EU negotiation progress, and China's substitution of US exports [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]

//一 周头条// // 国内投资要闻 // 1 . 投资者押注市场复苏，杠杆股票ETF受到欢迎 。 4月杠杆股票交易所交易基金（ETF）流入量激增，因为一些投资者寻求在市场从关税引发 的抛售中复苏时获得更大的收益。 根据LSEG Lipper的数据，本月迄今为止，杠杆股票基金已获得109.5亿美元的资金流入，已超过上个月创下 的92亿美元的五年高点。 此前的峰值出现在2020年3月，当时市场受到新冠疫情危机的重创。 2. 英国金融行为监管局寻求简化投资公司的资本规则 。英国金融行为监管局正在寻求简化有关投资公司必须持有的基金规则，以吸收损失并保持在 低迷市场的韧性，拟议的改革可能会将繁琐的程序减少多达70%。该监管机构目前正在修改英国金融业的监管规定，以促进其增长和竞争力。该机 构表示，简化欧盟衍生的金融工具市场指令（MiFID）规则的提议将减少投资公司在解释和应用要求上花费的时间和资源。 // 本周市场 // 01 本周主要股指及行业回顾 4月25日，A股横盘整理，电力股领涨，地产股午后跳水。本周，上证指数涨0.56%，深证成指涨1.38%，创业板指涨1.74%。 1 . 中共中央政治局会议： 适时降准降 ...

Group 1 - The central bank is implementing timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the real economy, indicating a shift from a "selective" to a more "timely" approach, reflecting a decrease in urgency [1] - The A-share market currently lacks confidence rather than liquidity or policy support, suggesting that the market is in need of a confidence boost to drive growth [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is confirmed, with a focus on more proactive macroeconomic policies [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to face challenges in breaking through the 3309-point resistance level next week, with key moving averages indicating potential support and resistance levels [3] - The index has been struggling to maintain levels above 3300 points, indicating a deliberate strategy by major players to accumulate shares while keeping the market in a tight range [5][6] - The Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index experienced slight declines, with the real estate sector showing a lack of investor confidence despite positive news, while the power storage sector saw strong performance [8]