Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for MEG is neutral, with attention on Sino-US tariff negotiations and crude oil price fluctuations [9] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] - In terms of inventory, on Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy may lead to the exemption of subsequent ethane import tariffs. On the supply side, attention should be paid to the actual progress of ethane-based plants and the adjustment of imported supplies. On the demand side, the short-term polyester load remains high and stable, but direct textile and clothing orders to the US are still on hold. The expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the holiday situation of weaving factories around May Day and the progress of subsequent Sino-US negotiations. Overall, the current EG inventory is at the seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still relatively high, providing a certain buffer. The actual change in port inventory is limited, and the fundamental contradictions of EG are not significant. Attention should be paid to macro dynamics [3] EG Basis Structure - The EG basis is 22 yuan/ton (-35). This week, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. After Trump's softened stance on China's tariff policy, chemical products rebounded following crude oil. On Thursday, affected by the news that ethane tariffs might be exempted, the price of ethylene glycol further declined, and the basis weakened [4] EG Production Profit and Operating Rate - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 68.47% (a 3.15% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 63.85% (a 13.99% increase from the previous period). The load of coal-based ethylene glycol has started to recover from a low level, and non-coal device overhauls have begun one after another, with the overall load increasing [4] EG Import Profit & International Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the text regarding EG import profit and international price difference Downstream Polyester Situation - In terms of demand, the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59% (-2%), the texturing load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71% (-2%), the polyester operating rate is 93.6% (-0.2%), and the direct-spun filament load is 90.3% (-2.2%). The inventory days of POY are 25.0 days (-3.8), FDY are 30.6 days (-2.1), and DTY are 30.9 days (-1.1). The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 91.3% (+2.4%), and the equity inventory days of staple fiber factories are 15.5 days (+0.2); the operating rate of bottle chip factories is 81.2% (+1.9%) [5] EG Inventory Trend - On Thursday this week, the East China EG port inventory was 68.8 tons (-1.9). The visible inventory increased slightly compared to Monday and decreased slightly compared to last Thursday, with the overall inventory remaining stable. The current port inventory has returned to the seasonal median level in the past five years. Although there was inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory is still relatively high, and it will take time for the market to digest it. It is difficult to see a significant decline in port inventory in the short term [6]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.17%，报收 69.15 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.58%，报收 12990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1639 手 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14188 元/吨，较前一日增加 | | | | 37 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普释放中美关税政策缓和 | | | | 信号，美元指数自低位回升，昨日重心略有下移，ICE 美棉期价震荡运行，预计短 | | | | 期宏观扰动仍存。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势，市场情绪影响仍 | | | | 然较大。展望未来，我们认为本年度最艰难时刻大概率已经度过，中美关税较此前 | | | | 再度增加概率偏低。供需基本面来看，目前是新棉种植期，供应端扰动不大，下游 | | | | 需求虽相对有限，但能看到棉花商业库存在逐渐下 ...

Report Title - The report focuses on the Container Shipping Index (European Line), with a title of "Container Shipping Index (European Line): Low-level Fluctuation, Hold 10 - 12 Inverse Spread Positions Lightly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2606 contract may be traded based on the spot freight rate trend in May, currently in a stage of weak reality (shipping companies cut prices to stock up at the end of April and failed to raise prices in early May) and weak expectations (no easing of Sino-US tariffs), and may fluctuate at a low level on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies can establish continuous rolling in the case of many blank sailings in early May to build momentum for price increases in late May. If the cargo collection is poor in early May, the increase in capacity in late May may lead to greater cargo collection pressure. The 2508 contract mainly reflects the expected trading of changes in Sino-US tariff policies. There are significant differences in the 2510 contract. Some long funds believe that the US inventory replenishment may last until October, which may require transferring ships from the European line, benefiting the European line. However, it is considered that September - October is the off - season of the European line, and shipping companies need to suspend sailings to slow down the decline of freight rates. Whether the US inventory replenishment in October requires transferring ships from the European line and the transfer intensity remain to be observed, and the 2510 contract mainly fluctuates following the valuation of the 2508 contract [15] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Fundamental Tracking Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Data - EC2504: Yesterday's closing price was 1,419.7, with a daily decline of 0.47%, trading volume of 3, open interest of 5,148, a decrease of 10 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 0.03, and the previous day's ratio of 0.07 [1] - EC2506: Yesterday's closing price was 1,533.0, with a daily decline of 1.11%, trading volume of 53,941, open interest of 36,130, a decrease of 817 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 1.49, and the previous day's ratio of 1.81 [1] - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 1,653.8, with a daily increase of 0.39%, trading volume of 17,645, open interest of 30,029, a decrease of 746 in open interest, yesterday's trading volume to open interest ratio of 0.59, and the previous day's ratio of 0.65 [1] Spot Freight Rate Data - The SCFIS European route and US - West route data are presented, along with the SCFI European route ($/TEU) and US - West route ($/FEU) data for different shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC, etc. The exchange rate of the US dollar index and the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 99.23 and 7.30 respectively. The European line freight rate index has a weekly increase of - 4.5% and a bi - weekly increase of - 2.9% [1] Shipping Capacity Data China - Europe Base Shipping Capacity - Weekly shipping capacity data shows the capacity of different alliances such as Gemini, OA, PA, and MSC. Monthly average weekly shipping capacity data from February to June 2025 is also provided, with the capacity of different alliances varying in different months [7][9] - The shipping capacity from April to June 2025 for different shipping companies and routes is presented in a table, with the total shipping capacity in some periods reaching up to 33.6 million TEU [11] Shipping Capacity Transfer from US Line to European Line - A total of 13 ships are transferred from the US line to the European line, with a total capacity of 170,132 TEU. The details include the week, shipping company, ship name, ship size, original US line code, current European line code, and Shanghai ETD/ATD [13] Macro and Industry News - The Hamas delegation held talks with the Turkish Foreign Minister on a cease - fire in Gaza on April 20. The two sides discussed issues such as stopping Israel's attacks on Gaza and reaching a comprehensive cease - fire agreement [15] - Trump said on April 17 that he was confident about reaching an agreement with China, expecting things to be settled in the next three to four weeks [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The 2505 contract of soybean oil may run in a box - range in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [2]. - **Corn**: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate in a range, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price may be forming a bubble. It is recommended to wait patiently for weakness signals, and aggressive investors can follow the short - term trend [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6]. - **Steel**: The market sentiment of steel has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level [7]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of the eleventh round of price cuts for coke, and both coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore will mainly oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recently, the crude oil price depends on market games, and the key support for the WTI main contract is around $65 per barrel [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price will mainly oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the downstream resumption of work in the Shanghai rubber market, and the support level is around 16,600 - 16,800 yuan per ton [12]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, there is a lack of fundamental positive drivers, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price of soda ash is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,420 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year. South America's new season may have a bumper harvest. In the short - term, the supply and downstream demand of soybean oil in China may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,150 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3,190 yuan/ton (0), Rizhao 3,160 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3,090 yuan/ton (-50) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. During the South American harvest window, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas. The Sino - US trade tariff issue suppresses the export demand of US soybeans. In March - April, soybean meal supply may be tight, and it is expected to turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills has increased significantly [2]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2,087 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,317 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, etc. [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report shows a year - on - year decrease in production and ending inventory. Affected by the tariff event, US corn has rebounded, supporting the import cost. The domestic spring selling pressure is lower than in previous years, and the impact of imported corn is reduced. The downstream consumption is expected to increase, but the policy grain release drags down the market [3]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 81,420 - 81,710 yuan, up 540 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 22.88, down 6.96 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Under the background of global uncertainties and tariff expectations, there are differences between the US and non - US regions. The Fed's continuous maintenance of the status quo reflects this. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact on the copper industry is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,150 yuan/ton (-100), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,300 yuan/ton (-100) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium ore has loosened. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. With cost support weakening and inventory pressure, the price has dropped [5][6]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Spot Market**: The price of main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton, and the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts index of iron ore is 103.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 781 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 782 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The Fed's interest - rate cut signal provides some support, and the price may rebound if the demand improves [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: OPEC+ has issued a new production - cut policy. The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations are affecting the market. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the WTI price is supported around $65 per barrel [10]. Rubber - **Spot Market**: The prices of different types of rubber vary, such as 16,450 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is also increasing. The market is affected by macro - events. The price may oscillate weakly [12]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production start - up rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is still high. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,510.50 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the inventory is declining, and the demand is average. The market may oscillate widely in the short - term [14].