Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August, new social financing (社融) reached 2.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 463 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, but an increase of 1.44 trillion yuan from July, slightly above consensus expectations[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in August was 8.8%, down 0.17 percentage points from July, and slightly below the expected 8.85%[2] - New RMB loans in August amounted to 623.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 417.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, but an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan from July[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - The significant growth in August was seen in bill financing, indicating a recovery in short-term financing demand in the real economy[2] - Government bonds accounted for the largest share of new financing in August, with 1.37 trillion yuan, while direct financing through corporate bonds and stock financing remained relatively high[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.20 percentage points from July, while RMB loans, corporate bonds, and entrusted loans saw notable declines[2] Group 3: Deposit and Loan Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continued, with new resident deposits of 110 billion yuan and new corporate deposits of 299.7 billion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased significantly by 1.18 trillion yuan compared to last year[2] - New loans from financial institutions in August totaled 590 billion yuan, a decrease of 310 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate loans down by 250 billion yuan[2] - The increase in short-term loans and interbank loans was the only area showing growth compared to the same month last year, highlighting a shift in corporate financing behavior[2] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The marginal improvement in corporate financing demand is attributed to ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and domestic macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations[2] - Attention is needed on the decline in long-term loans to residents compared to last year, indicating potential challenges in consumer financing[2] - Risks include a potential second wave of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and increasing complexity in international relations[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and range - bound pattern. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3060 and 3120. Factors such as the uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas support the bottom of the US soybean market, but the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the overall good planting weather in the US limit the rebound height of the US soybean market. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market [8]. - The soybean market is expected to be neutral and range - bound. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the domestic soybean market, while the expected abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upward space of the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US Department of Agriculture report and is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. Affected by relatively positive data from the August US Department of Agriculture report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and range - bound [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price of soybean meal. Due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war affect the short - term moderately bullish and range - bound pattern of soybean meal. Future trends depend on the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 118, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 255, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macro方面,美联储表态偏鸽,市场预计9月降息概率提升,提振铜价,但后续降息幅度不确定,铜价上方空间仍面临压制 - 基本面呈现"弱现实+稳预期"状态,中长期供需矛盾提供底部支撑,铜价至少维持震荡,后续步入新的上行周期需等待铜的商品属性及金融属性共振,主力参考78500 - 81000 [1] Zinc - 上游海外矿企步入投产复产上行周期,矿端供应宽松逻辑逐步传导至冶炼端,7月国内精锌产量大增 - 需求端即将步入旺季,锌价重心下移后,现货成交好转,全球库存绝对值水平偏低给予价格支撑 - 供应端宽松预期仍存,对锌价持续上冲提供的弹性不足,短期锌价或仍以震荡运行为主,主力参考21500 - 23000 [4] Aluminum Alumina - 市场呈现"高供应、高库存、弱需求"格局,当前期价已逼近国内主流成本带,下方空间相对有限,上方驱动需等待几内亚供应扰动或情绪催化,主力合约参考区间2900 - 3200元/吨 [7] Aluminum - 宏观层面美联储降息预期升温对铝价形成外部支撑,基本面供应端产能高位但成本上升,需求端下游消费边际回暖,社会库存虽小幅累库但同比仍处低位 - 整体呈现宏观预期与基本面改善共振格局,但高价对下游采购有抑制,短期预计维持20400 - 21000元/吨区间震荡 [7] Aluminum Alloy - 供应端废铝市场供应趋紧,对成本形成支撑,近期多地税收政策调整使部分再生铝厂减产或停产 - 需求端终端消费仍偏弱,累库趋势延续,9月起市场将迎来淡旺季转换,部分压铸企业订单已出现边际回暖迹象 - 若进口比价维持,进口铝合金锭及废铝补充有限,预计现货价格保持坚挺,铝合金与铝价差有望进一步收敛,主力合约参考运行区间20000 - 20600元/吨 [8] Tin - 供应方面,现实锡矿供应维持紧张,7月国内锡矿进口环比下降,实际出矿预计延至四季度,关注缅甸锡矿恢复情况 - 需求方面,光伏抢装机结束后,部分地区订单和开工率下滑 - 受国家政策指引,市场对于国内Al需求预期向好,同时基本面延续强势,锡价偏强震荡,运行区间参考285000 - 265000 [10] Nickel - 宏观方面,美国宽松预期提振,国内反内卷背景下政策预期偏积极 - 产业层面,精炼镍现货成交尚可,矿价坚挺,镍铁价格偏强,不锈钢需求仍偏弱 - 情绪影响弱化,近期成本有一定支撑,基本面供需变动不大,价格下跌空间有限,中期供给宽松不改制约价格上方空间,短期预计盘面以区间调整为主,主力参考118000 - 126000 [11] Stainless Steel - 宏观方面,美联储降息预期升温,中美关税谈判结果落地出口压力阶段性缓和,国内政策态度偏积极 - 矿价坚挺,镍铁市场议价区间上移,钢厂生产利润修复,对于镍铁压价心态有所缓解 - 季节性和政策窗口之下需求预期改善,但目前终端需求疲软现实未改,不锈钢社会库存去化仍较慢 - 原料价格坚挺成本支撑强化,伴随旺季来临市场持谨慎乐观态度,库存压力放缓,但基本面仍受制于现货需求偏弱,短期盘面区间震荡为主,主力运行区间参考12600 - 13400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - 消息面上,关于大厂复产信息多有发酵,目前官方尚无公告 - 近期碳酸锂基本面维持紧平衡,供应收缩预期逐步兑现,需求表现稳健偏乐观,但材料产业链库存压力之下实际需求尚大幅提振仍需跟踪 - 近期利多出尽演化为情绪利空,期现共振整体交易氛围转弱,但9月底之前供应端消息尚未完全落地,基本面改善仍然为价格提供下方支撑,预计盘面价格中枢下移后宽幅震荡为主,主力区间参考7 - 7.5万 [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1电解铜现值80160元/吨,日涨260元,涨幅0.33% - 精废价差现值1852元/吨,日涨215元,涨幅13.13%等 [1] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值20元/吨,日涨30元 [1] Fundamental Data - 8月电解铜产量117.15万吨,月环比下降0.24% - 境内社会库存现值13.21万吨,周环比增长7.40%等 [1] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0锌锭现值22150元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.23% - 进口盈亏现值 - 2267元/吨,日跌64.32元 [4] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 45元/吨,日跌20元 [4] Fundamental Data - 8月精炼锌产量62.62万吨,月环比增长3.88% - 中国锌锭七地社会库存现值14.63万吨,周环比增长5.63%等 [4] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00铝现值20710元/吨,日涨90元,涨幅0.44% - 进口盈亏现值 - 1359元/吨,日跌35.7元 [7] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值15元/吨,日跌5元 [7] Fundamental Data - 8月氧化铝产量773.82万吨,月环比增长1.15% - 中国电解铝社会库存现值62.30万吨,周环比增长1.14%等 [7] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM铝合金ADC12现值20750元/吨,日涨幅0.00% - 佛山破碎生铝精废价差现值1608元/吨,日涨幅0.00% [8] Monthly Spread - 2511 - 2512现值 - 10元/吨,日涨5元 [8] Fundamental Data - 7月再生铝合金锭产量62.50万吨,月环比增长1.63% - 再生铝合金锭周度社会库存现值3.75万吨,周环比增长6.84%等 [8] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1锡现值273500元/吨,日涨1000元,涨幅0.37% - LME 0 - 3升贴水现值148美元/吨,日跌27美元,跌幅15.43% [10] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - 进口盈亏现值 - 20382.26元/吨,日跌5.53元,跌幅0.03% [10] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 320元/吨,日涨20元,涨幅5.88% [10] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - 7月锡矿进口10278吨,月环比下降13.71% - SMM精锡7月平均开工率66.19%,月涨幅0.00%等 [10] Inventory Changes - SHEF库存周报现值7566吨,周涨75吨,涨幅1.00% [10] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1电解镍现值124050元/吨,日跌250元,跌幅0.20% - 期货进口盈亏现值 - 1504元/吨,日跌1055元,涨幅234.97% [11] Electrolytic Nickel Cost - 一体化MHP生产电积镍成本现值118531元/吨,月跌3422元,跌幅2.81% [11] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 200元/吨,日跌70元 [11] Supply and Demand and Inventory - 中国精炼镍产量现值37800吨,月涨400吨,涨幅1.26% - SHFE库存现值26943吨,周跌19吨,跌幅0.07%等 [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷)现值13200元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.38% - 期现价差现值410元/吨,日涨40元,涨幅10.81% [13] Raw Material Price - 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价现值57美元/湿吨,日涨幅0.00% - 内蒙古高碳铬铁FeCrC1000均价现值8400元/50基吨,日涨100元,涨幅1.20% [13] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 70元/吨,日跌10元 [13] Fundamental Data - 中国300系不锈钢粗钢产量(43家)现值171.33万吨,月环比下降3.83% - 300系社库(锡 + 佛)现值49.90万吨,周环比下降1.09%等 [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM电池级碳酸锂均价现值77500元/吨,日跌850元,跌幅1.08% - 锂辉石精矿CIF平均价现值887美元/吨,日跌11美元,跌幅1.22% [14] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2511现值 - 20元/吨,日涨160元 [14] Fundamental Data - 8月碳酸锂产量85240吨,月环比增长4.55% - 碳酸锂总库存(8月)现值94177吨,月环比下降3.75%等 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The Fed's expected rate cut in September, the shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the expected accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper inventories due to continuous imported copper arrivals may lead to strong fluctuations in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 2, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 79,660 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,677 lots, a decrease of 16,804 lots; the open interest was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots; the inventory was 19,501 tons, a decrease of 699 tons [2]. - The price of SMN 1 computer copper + 12 was 80,160 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 500 yuan, an increase of 380 yuan [2]. - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic) was 9,980.5 US dollars, up 96.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 158,775 tons [2]. - The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.641 US dollars, up 0.10 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 281,075 tons, an increase of 5,849 tons [2]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a month - on - month decline of 14.20%; the cumulative production was 136.434 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.34%. In September 2025, the total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 27.07 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.28% [2]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will face a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [2]. - After the Shanghe Summit and approaching the end of the military parade, downstream enterprises of refined copper rods in North China will gradually resume normal production [2]. Investment Strategy - The restriction on the export of high - quality European scrap copper, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the import and production of domestic scrap copper in September. The planned maintenance of domestic smelters in September may reduce the production and import of refined copper. New domestic production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the future, which may increase the production of electrolytic copper in September. The import window for electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume and inventory [3].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight decrease in inventory levels, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][2][3] Pricing - As of August 28, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,100 yuan/ton, and in Foshan, it is 13,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] - The basis price is 420 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Raw Materials - The nickel ore market is relatively stable, with 1.3% nickel ore resources trading at FOB 32 and CIF 42, showing a month-on-month increase [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are showing a slight upward trend, with a recent bid price of 940 yuan/nickel, up by 40 yuan/nickel from the last public inquiry [1] - The chromium ore market is experiencing tight supply, leading to rising prices due to strong cost support [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3041 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.64% [1] - The output for the 300 series is estimated at 1.7598 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1] Inventory - As of August 29, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 499,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,500 tons [2] - The stainless steel futures inventory is 100,431 tons, down by 18,209 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with prices stable but affected by overall market sentiment and reduced high-priced resource circulation [3] - Downstream purchasing activity remains low, primarily driven by essential needs [3] - The recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and easing export pressures from U.S.-China tariff negotiations are contributing to a cautious market outlook [3] - Despite improvements in steel mill profits and increased production motivation, the overall demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market showed a widespread decline, with the stock index sector generally falling [1]. - Overseas, after the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [6]. - In the short term, the high - spirited market sentiment in the domestic market may continue as it approaches important events in early September. After these events, the domestic market may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamental factors may play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. The current differentiation between capital and fundamental performance may lead to increased short - term market volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short term, but there are still employment and inflation pressures in the medium term. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts is strengthening. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permits continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have improved, and Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to - 1.7% from - 1.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 2.3%. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand such as consumption and investment is still at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the domestic market may maintain high - spirited sentiment until after important events in early September. Then, the fundamental factors may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser. The current market may face increased short - term volatility [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is a rush to take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the decline in incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: There is strong betting on the put side. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve is steepening. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The real - world support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - making output [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment has weakened, and the fundamentals have changed little. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - making production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Supply is restricted in some regions, and the eighth round of price increases is emerging. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has declined, and the futures price has回调 significantly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The black chain is showing a weak trend, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sector is in a downward adjustment, and the futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost prices and foreign market quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short term, while rigid demand remains stable. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and the copper price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure due to weak and stable spot prices and increasing warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is oscillating at a high level with a slight increase in social inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum production resumption, extreme sector trends, macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in black - series prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption situation is still unclear, and the lead price has oscillated and declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has回调. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The coal price is fluctuating, and the silicon price is continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to OPEC + production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil price has risen and then fallen. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has followed the crude oil price and oscillated downward. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory has accumulated, but short - term petrochemical news has provided a boost. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and the export - driven effect is less than expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low inventory level coincides with the peak - season expectation, providing strong support for the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: The price is driven by emotional factors and the peak - season effect. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device production cuts [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory has decreased, but the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: The price is mainly following the PP price in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9]. - **PP**: The price is fluctuating due to news from Zhonghan Petrochemical, but the fundamental support is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price has strengthened slightly due to news from the petrochemical industry. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the PVC price has weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and short - term long positions have taken profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is continuing to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support below. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The domestic market has declined due to state - reserve auctions, and the domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade disputes [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline in the spot price has slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.6 Agriculture - **Rubber**: The rubber price has declined following the market atmosphere, with little change in its own fundamentals. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has followed the natural rubber price and weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: The price has continued to decline, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: The low inventory level combined with improved demand provides strong support for the short - term cotton price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the sugar price has continued to decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The delivery pressure in the September contract is relatively large, dragging down the far - month contracts. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to enter a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern in the short - term. The price of soybean meal M2601 is predicted to oscillate within the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean产区 weather uncertainty supports the bottom of the US soybean price, while the high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China restricts the upward movement of domestic soybean meal prices [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is currently neutral. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 - 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, but the expected high yield of new domestic soybeans and the large - scale import of Brazilian soybeans suppress the upward potential [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal rose and then fell, while the spot price remained relatively stable, with the high - level spot discount narrowing. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has rebounded from the low level, and the pick - up volume remains high [22][24][26]. - **Soybeans**: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term reduction in stocking demand [45][47]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. Affected by the relatively favorable data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, domestic soybean meal is oscillating moderately bullishly in the short - term. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, completion of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and continuous expectation of a high - yield South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Continuous expectation of a high - yield Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected high yield of new domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3010, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 326, indicating a premium to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main players increased, and there was capital inflow [10]. 3.6 Others - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025 are included, covering data on harvested area, yield, production, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume [41]. - **Export and Arrival Data**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [42][44]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybean futures weakened [51]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then fell, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit declined recently [53][55][57][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased, there is an expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper has started to decline, which may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their long positions from the previous day cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to factors such as the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, continuous tight supply of global copper concentrates, and the expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, investors are advised to pay attention to the short - term arbitrage opportunity of going long on the Shanghai copper basis at low prices [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average. Considering factors such as Trump's tariff policy and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see regarding the arbitrage opportunity of the LME copper (3 - 15) contract spread [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - environment - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the change in the risk balance may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September. However, attention should be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream - In August, the domestic production (import) volume of copper concentrates increased (increased) month - on - month. The export restriction of high - quality scrap copper in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper by traders, who instead supply through transit countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window. As a result, the domestic production (import) volume of scrap copper in August may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight [2][25]. - The No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project (Phase II: 250,000 - ton copper rod project; Phase III: 200,000 - ton cathode copper and copper alloy project) was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (decreased) month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate production decreased compared to the previous week. The capacity for crude smelting maintenance in domestic smelters in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase (increase) in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper in August [2][28]. - The 600,000 - ton cathode copper production capacity of Jianfa Shenghai may be put into operation in May 2026. The second - phase project of Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March and will achieve a capacity of 250,000 tons after completion. These factors may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the domestic production volume of electrolytic copper in August. The delay in ship bookings due to African agricultural exports until late August has led to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper in Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, which may result in a month - on - month decrease in the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper in August [2][34]. Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper wire and cable decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (increased) compared to the previous week. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of domestic copper enameled wire decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic copper strips decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises decreased (remained flat) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper tubes decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises increased (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [3][35][49]. - In August, the capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable (due to weak terminal orders in construction and relatively stable orders in the power grid and new energy sectors) and copper enameled wire (due to weakening terminal demand in household appliances and significant order decline) may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips (although demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics is good, but demand in household appliances and photovoltaics is weak, resulting in a significant decline， in new orders for some enterprises) and copper foils (due to the significant increase in demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foils in the AI field, orders for many copper foil enterprises are saturated) may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes (as the estimated total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August is lower than that of last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US) may decrease month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of brass rods (due to the potential growth in demand from new energy and power sectors, which may improve large - enterprise orders, but small and medium - sized enterprises still face high raw material costs, tight funds, and insufficient orders) may increase month - on - month [55][63][69]. Inventory - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to the previous week. The opening of the import window may increase the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper, leading to a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared to the previous week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [16][17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared to the previous week [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased compared to the previous week [19]. Futures Spread and Structure - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average [8]. - The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, as well as between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, are negative and basically within a reasonable range. The spreads between different - maturity contracts of COMEX copper are also negative and basically within a reasonable range [10][12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - term contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [13]. Position - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. The non - commercial long (short) positions decreased (increased), and the commercial long (short) positions increased (increased) [18][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Report Core Views - **Bean Meal**: The US soybean market is affected by the expected high yield and technical adjustments, and is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic bean meal is influenced by the US soybean trend, with high imports in August and spot price discounts limiting the upside. It may enter a moderately strong oscillatory pattern in the short term. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3080 and 3140 [8]. - **Soybean**: The US soybean market is under pressure from the expected high yield and good growth weather, while the domestic soybean market is affected by the expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content for daily prompt is provided 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and China - US tariff negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans remains high in August, and the oil - mill bean meal inventory is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the bean meal returns to the range - oscillating pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly, waiting for the clear South American soybean output and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total domestic imports of soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean** - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price in East China is 3010, and the basis is - 107, indicating a discount to the futures. - **Inventory**: The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year. - **Supply - demand**: The arrival of imported soybeans at ports in August remains high, and the output of bean meal in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has recovered, and the pick - up volume remains high. - **Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit margin of imported soybeans on the futures market has worsened [8][24][51]. - **Soybean** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4300, and the basis is 308, indicating a premium to the futures. - **Inventory**: The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year. - **Supply - demand**: The expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans may suppress the price, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand provide some support [10]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions have decreased, but the funds have flowed in [10].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price increases, with spot prices for 304 cold-rolled steel rising by 100 yuan/ton in Wuxi and Foshan, indicating a recovery in both speculative and end-user demand, although primarily driven by essential orders [1][3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with significant transactions occurring for 1.3% nickel ore at FOB32 and CIF42, reflecting a slight increase in domestic nickel ore prices [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to increase, with an estimated output of 330.41 million tons in August, marking a month-on-month rise of 2.29% [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore market is stable, with 1.3% nickel ore transactions primarily at FOB32 and CIF42, showing a month-on-month increase [1] - Nickel iron prices are showing a slight upward trend, with major steel mills quoting around 940 yuan/nickel, indicating a recovery in production profits [1][3] - Chrome ore prices are expected to remain strong due to cost support from chrome ore suppliers [1] Supply - The estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 330.41 million tons for August, a 2.29% increase month-on-month but a 1.64% decrease year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is expected to reach 175.98 million tons, reflecting a 3% month-on-month increase and a 4.4% year-on-year increase [1] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing slowly, with a slight increase in warehouse receipts; as of August 22, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 50.44 million tons, up by 0.8 million tons week-on-week [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory increased to 118,640 tons as of August 21, up by 15,119 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is showing strength with rising prices and improved transaction volumes, driven by both speculative and end-user demand, although the overall demand remains weak [3] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and easing export pressures from US-China tariff negotiations [3] - Despite improved production profits for steel mills, the overall demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, leading to cautious market sentiment [3]