1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to face further pressure, with a likely pattern of reduced supply and demand in September. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract remains to go short on rallies. The impact of the anti - involution policy on the container shipping industry is currently limited, and attention should be paid to the influence of Sino - US tariff negotiations on the macro sentiment of EC. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - The container shipping index (European line) showed weak operation yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66% and reduced positions by 3056 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1692.3 points, down 3.59% and reduced positions by 45 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2121.6 points, down 0.66% and reduced positions by 724 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rates - The PA alliance increased the price - cut intensity, with the market freight rate center in the 2nd adjustment of August falling to the range of $3100 - 3200/FEU. Different alliances and shipping companies also adjusted their freight rates, such as the Gemini alliance, Maersk, and the 20A alliance. The PA alliance's weekly price - cut range expanded to $400/FEU, and the MSG 33 - week shipping schedule was adjusted down by $300 to $3340/FEU [8]. 3.3 Fundamentals (Supply - side) - In the supply - side, the AEU3 canceled sailings in week 34. Cosco & OOCL made ship - axis adjustments. Maersk's overtime ship MAERSK EMDEN confirmed its port calls. August's weekly capacity was slightly revised up from 32.4 million TEU to 32.7 million TEU, with extremely high capacity pressure in week 34. September's weekly capacity was revised down from 32.1 to 31.8 million TEU, a - 3% month - on - month decrease compared to August, a + 5.7% increase compared to July, and on par with April's capacity level [9]. 3.4 Market Trends and Strategies - From a monthly perspective, September is likely to see a pattern of reduced supply and demand, but the decline in the currently - counted capacity may be less than that in demand. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 10 contract [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅 震荡，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-130，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 ...

当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的 美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。本次会谈为期约一天半，持续时间比之前偏 短。那除了双方暂停关税延长90天外，这一天半的会谈还释放出中美关税谈判的哪些信号？今晚《夜 话》邀您重点关注。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively neutral stance with poor operability [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish bias but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] Core Views - The market is closely watching the implementation of US tariff agreements with Europe and China, the Fed meeting, and a series of real - economy indicators. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed lower on Wednesday, and attention is paid to the support of the MA40 moving average. The decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average, and short positions should be held against the integer - level resistance [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The off - season demand decline led to inventory accumulation, and the apparent consumption decreased significantly year - on - year. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum market, and the scrap aluminum market had tight supply. The profit of aluminum alloy was negative, with short - term price pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices rose sharply, with increased industry profits, record - high operating capacity, and excess inventory. It is recommended to short against the recent high of 3500 yuan [2] Zinc - There is a stalemate between bulls and bears near the support level of 22,500 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for the result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The TC continued to rise in August, and there is still room to short the mine's profit on the futures market. Adopt a mid - term short - on - rebound strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 4300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the day. The long - term supply expectation from the mining end may suppress tin prices at high levels. In August, the supply and demand sides continued to compete, and the increase in domestic social inventory is expected to be limited. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated sharply. The total market inventory continued to rise to 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream was generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and short - term light - position long positions can be tried [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, mainly affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply increased slightly in most regions except Xinjiang, and the demand decreased due to an incident in the organic silicon DMC industry. The price is at a historical low, and it is recommended to take light - position long positions [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed sharply higher again. Although the news of capacity acquisition was false, it still boosted market sentiment. The factory inventory continued to decline, and there is an expectation of transfer to warehouse receipts. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and be cautious about short - selling unilaterally [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the large arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas suppresses the market, and it is oscillating above the thousand - point mark waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after reaching the bottom, with technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price suppress the market. It may return to the range - bound pattern. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the long positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and rising, affected by the US soybean trend and technical oscillatory consolidation. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased slightly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the short positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of the Sino - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US futures have risen and then fallen back, expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal has risen and then fallen back due to the reduction of protein content in feed formulations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war still exist, and the soybean meal remains oscillatory in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [30]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main force in the soybean meal market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - The short positions of the main force in the soybean market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [41]. - The arrival peak of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking has increased [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal output in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of imported soybean futures has also fluctuated slightly [49]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month [51]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen back, and the piglet price has remained weak [53]. - The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [55]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has recently declined [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable overall. The improvement of consumer purchasing意愿 in the US depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term, and non - dollar assets should be monitored [8]. - Domestic macro: As the "anti - involution" policy expectations strengthen, although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset view: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, with US consumer purchasing意愿 for real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuating at a low level. Price suppression persists, and improvement depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Monitor the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: "Anti - involution" policy expectations are strengthening. Despite the off - season, domestic demand has not declined significantly, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Asset View**: Focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets, and pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting signals. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The main line of "anti - involution" has switched. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility has reached an inflection point. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has fallen from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, and policy [9]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the fourth round of increases, and the futures price has followed coking coal's limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy - stimulated sentiment has reversed, and the futures price has limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Iron**: Bullish sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Speculative sentiment has declined, and intermediate - level inventory has increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment has weakened, and both futures and spot prices have declined rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions, policy surprises, and demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the price has adjusted from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to ore production recovery and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment remains, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: "Anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production recovery in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: "Anti - involution" sentiment persists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and attention is on Russian oil risks. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [11]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and cost factors dominate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost progress such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, with attention to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has weakened during the power - generation peak season. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows crude oil and weakens. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Commodity sentiment has faded, and the price has declined with coal. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to export policies and capacity elimination [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to coal prices and inventory accumulation [11]. - **PX**: Sentiment fluctuations are intensifying, and fundamental drivers are weakening. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance [11]. - **PTA**: Large - scale plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to unexpected plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and processing fees are compressed. Supply - demand drivers are weak. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to textile exports and downstream purchasing [11]. - **Bottle Chip**: During the production - cut season, cost pricing dominates over supply - demand drivers. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to future production starts [11]. - **Propylene**: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene to fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - environment [11]. - **PP**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Plastic**: Macro support has weakened, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is on policy details. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low inventory in Shandong supports the price, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to market sentiment, production starts, and demand [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has stabilized, and prices may strengthen with fluctuations. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: The excellent - grade rate is higher than expected, and US soybeans are trading around 1000 cents. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, macro - environment, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Inventory remains high, and both futures and spot prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and the rubber price has dropped significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to significant crude - oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Pulp**: "Anti - involution" trading may resume. Pay attention to arbitrage during the price decline. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: The price difference between months is converging. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports are expected to increase, limiting the sugar - price rebound. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to abnormal weather [11]. - **Logs**: Fundamental changes are limited, and short - term prices are dominated by macro - expectations. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to shipment and delivery volumes [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡 收跌，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差147，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存642.24万吨，上周657.49万吨，环比增减少2.32%，去年同期611.2万 吨，同比增5.08%。偏空 4.盘面： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous policy - driven market sentiment has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day. EB2509 dropped 1.97% to close at 7,358 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene market maintains a high - production state. Supply has increased, with last week's styrene output rising 0.67% to 361,100 tons and capacity utilization up 0.54% to 78.84%. Demand has also improved, with downstream EPS, PS, ABS consumption increasing 2.65% to 243,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased 1.46% to 205,300 tons, while the East China port inventory increased 8.81% to 150,700 tons and the South China port inventory decreased 2.04% to 19,200 tons. The styrene market is expected to maintain a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Next week, styrene production and capacity utilization are expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The improvement in downstream consumption may not be sustainable due to weak terminal demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the future. The cost support is limited, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate. The market should pay attention to the latest progress of China - US tariff negotiations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,358 yuan/ton, down 229 yuan; the trading volume was 431,585 lots, down 208 lots; the open interest of the active contract was 295,650 lots, down 21,424 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 23,626 lots, up 8,903 lots; the short position of the top 20 holders was 344,836 lots, down 53,457 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 1,900 lots, up 400 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 910 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 920 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars. The mainstream prices in different regions showed variations: Northeast was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; South China was 7,555 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; North China was 7,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 7,540 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene in different regions were: CFR Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CIF Northwest Europe was 842.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FD US Gulf was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene also varied: Taiwan's CIF price was 763.83 US dollars/ton, up 26.33 US dollars; US Gulf's FOB price was 284 cents/gallon, unchanged; Rotterdam's FOB price was 755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets were: South China was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China was 6,095 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; North China was 6,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The national inventory of styrene was 205,283 tons, down 3,036 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rates of downstream products changed: EPS was 55.21%, up 2.03%; ABS was 66.82%, up 0.92%; PS was 51.6%, up 1; UPR was 28%, unchanged; styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.8%, up 0.72% [2]. 5. Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's styrene factory output was 361,100 tons, up 2,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.84%, up 0.54%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,800 tons, up 6,300 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of July 24th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 205,300 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [2].

瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本方面，当前正处美国夏季出行旺季，但OPEC+增产及美国关税政策给到原油价格压力，预计国际油价震 免责声明 荡走势。宏观方面，美欧关税达成协议，后市关注中美关税谈判最新进展。短期BZ2603预计宽幅震荡。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯苯产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6251 | -136 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6296 | -30 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for European routes stopped rising and declined, while the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline [1][7]. - The current influencing factor for futures prices is the spot cabin quotes on European routes. The spot cabin quotes of some major shipping companies in August started to fall, reducing the valuation of near - month contract futures prices, while the strong commodity sentiment and relatively eased macro - sentiment led to a short - term rebound in futures prices, causing the overall long - term futures prices to rise slightly [1]. - There are many uncertain factors, and it is more likely that futures prices will maintain a slightly downward trend in the short term. Traders are advised to observe and look for opportunities to short the basis in the short term, and can temporarily stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders should observe and look for short - term opportunities to short the basis [2]. - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Market Review - As of Friday, the closing prices and settlement prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. The closing price of EC2510 fell 5.30% from the previous week to 1527.5 points, and the settlement price fell 6.14% to 1530.9 points. The main influencing factor was the spot cabin quotes on European routes [3]. 4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of July 21, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, stopped rising and declined with a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% (previous value was 7.26%), while the US West route freight rate rebounded with a month - on - month increase of 2.78% (previous value was - 18.69%). As of July 25, CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline [7]. - By route, the North American routes continued to decline. The SCFI US West route decreased 3.50% month - on - month (previous week was - 2.37%), the SCFI US East route decreased 6.48% month - on - month (previous week was - 13.42%), and the SCFI European route increased 0.53% month - on - month (previous week was - 0.95%) [7]. - Demand Side - No specific summary content is provided in the text, only data charts such as the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in deployed capacity by route are presented [21][23]. - Supply Side - As of July 25, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 1.8%. The idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 66,230 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 25,859 TEU, accounting for 0.3% of this type of ships. The idle ratio of ultra - large container ships decreased again [27]. - The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 7.9 thousand TEU to 547.8 thousand TEU compared with last week; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port decreased by 22.3 thousand TEU to 176.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 5.5 thousand TEU to 95.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 12.4 thousand TEU to 106.6 thousand TEU [30]. 5. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route stopped rising and declined with a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%, reported at 2400.50 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1592.7 points on Monday, and the basis increased slightly compared with last week. Affected by the decline in the spot cabin quotes of some shipping companies on European routes in August, the valuation of the 10 - contract decreased, while the futures underlying remained at a relatively stable level based on the current spot freight rates, so the basis was still relatively high. Traders are advised to observe and look for short - term opportunities to short the basis [35]. - The spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 685.1 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 492.4 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 192.7 points. The 08 - contract is about to enter the delivery month, and the futures price volatility has converged. The 10 and 12 contracts had relatively large previous increases, mainly due to the stable and rising spot cabin quotes on European routes. Now that the MSK quotes have finally fallen, the 10 and 12 contracts also had relatively large declines. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines [37].