1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for multiple futures varieties, including "cautiously bullish" for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, and "bullish" for coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Macro factors provide short - term support, and steel products are expected to be strong in the short term. Rebar's supply - demand is weak, but it may be boosted by new regulations and production control. Hot - rolled coil's supply is high, but it may be strengthened by policies [2][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the static fundamentals are neutral to weak, due to the easing of Sino - US relations and positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price increases is fully implemented and the third round is on the way, coke is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and other factors, and imports may be tightened. With high iron - water production, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon's cost provides some support, and ferrosilicon is expected to follow the coal price. Both are cautiously bullish [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Weekly production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory has decreased. Supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The upward driving force is limited. New regulations on capacity replacement and regional production control may boost it, and it may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years. Steel supply is at a high level, but it may be strengthened by policies in the short term [4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices such as rebar 01 are 3133 (up 42), and spot prices like Tangshan billet are 3000 (up 20). There are also details about basis, price differences, and profit margins [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has decreased, and steel mills and ports have increased inventory. Outer - mine shipments have increased, but arrivals have decreased significantly. Steel - enterprise profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are neutral to weak. - **Price Movement**: Affected by positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term. Futures prices such as iron ore 01 are 802 (up 12), and there are also details about spot prices, price differences, and freight rates [6][8]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Dynamics**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is in progress. Coke - steel game is obvious. Coke - enterprise profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in losses. Steel - mill inventory is low, and some steel mills are replenishing inventory. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10][11]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Supply and Demand**: Coal - mine production has decreased month - on - month. Supply is affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications, and imports may be tightened. Iron - water production is high, and demand is guaranteed. The supply - demand pattern has become tight. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and utilization rates [14][15]. 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Production area supply is at a high level. After the new round of replenishment demand from downstream steel procurement is released, inventory reduction in production areas becomes more difficult. The cost provides some support in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish [19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply and demand have weakened, enterprise inventory has decreased. It is expected to follow the coal price and be strong in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish. There are details about futures prices, spot prices, basis, and weekly data such as production and inventory [18][19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are currently in a phase of adjustment, with the Shanghai gold spot price at 904.70 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 6.18 CNY compared to the futures price of 910.88 CNY per gram [1] - Recent signs of easing tensions in US-China relations, including potential relaxations on fentanyl tariffs and shipping costs, have significantly boosted market risk appetite [1] - The trading volume for gold futures on October 29 was 363,239 contracts, while the open interest stood at 168,691 contracts, reflecting active market participation [1] Group 2 - The US Senate failed to pass a procedural vote on the "Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," indicating that the government shutdown will continue [2] - Despite a decrease in risk aversion, there remains strong buying interest in gold, suggesting that precious metals may experience fluctuations as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2] - The outlook for gold is characterized by mid-term or high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the impact of the US dollar index on gold prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Gold and Silver**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, reduced risk - aversion sentiment, the market's full pricing of central bank interest rate cuts, and the Philippine central bank's intention to sell gold, gold and silver prices are falling. In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels (900 for gold and 11000 for silver). In the long - term, gold's strategic allocation value remains unchanged due to the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical order reshaping, and continued central bank purchases. Silver is affected by gold price fluctuations, and long - term demand is expected to increase due to global policy stimulus [1][3][4]. - **Copper**: Copper prices have fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US relations. In the short - term, it is recommended to move stop - profits for long positions and avoid blind chasing. Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level pullback. In the long - term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][7]. - **Zinc**: With the start of the "super macro week", zinc continues to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long - term supply is relatively loose. After the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades, the upside space may be limited. In the long - term, zinc supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][10]. - **Lead**: Lead production enterprises in Hebei and other places are affected by environmental protection controls. Although the downstream terminal consumption peak season is fair, the production cuts of medium and large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises drag down consumption, and lead prices face pressure in the short - term [1]. - **Tin**: Overseas tin mine production in Myanmar and imports are still restricted. The overall operating rate of Yunnan smelters has rebounded, and the peak consumption season of downstream tin has led to a reduction in tin ingot inventory. Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, while domestic supply is stable. The inventory of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas continues to decline during the peak season, and supported by the peak - season performance of terminal consumption, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - **Nickel**: Overseas disturbances in Indonesia's nickel ore supply have weakened, and domestic refined nickel supply is sufficient. Pure nickel inventory has significantly accumulated. Although there is some support from the peak consumption season of downstream nickel sulfate, nickel prices are under pressure [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals. The increase in northern production starts has slowed down, and the number of furnace shutdowns in the south is gradually increasing as the dry season approaches. Downstream demand is flat, and there are expectations of polysilicon production cuts in the future. Prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to operate within a range [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality. The lack of further market news on capacity integration has disappointed the market sentiment. However, with effective cost support and firm spot prices, buying on dips is more cost - effective [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term marginal improvement of the fundamentals is highly certain, with total inventory decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and downstream material factories accelerating raw material inventory consumption. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and buy after sufficient corrections [1][21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the Philippine central bank's intention to sell gold, and the alleviation of the London silver squeeze, gold and silver prices continue to adjust. Funds are flowing out of the market [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The results of Sino - US negotiations, the Philippine central bank's plan to sell up to $5 billion of gold reserves, the alleviation of the tight situation in the London silver market (the London silver lease rate dropped from 34.9% to 5.6%), and the upcoming "super central bank week" with the Fed likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points while the European and Japanese central banks maintain existing rates. In the long - term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, pay attention to the stop - falling situation of gold and silver. In China, focus on the 900 support for gold and the 11000 support for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates sharply at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters set by the Biden administration, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to downstream hesitation, an increase in domestic social copper inventory, and a decline in LME copper inventory. COMEX copper inventory is high but mostly locked. High copper prices also suppress demand, and the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod - making enterprises has declined [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions should move stop - profits to lock in gains. Avoid blind chasing and be vigilant against high - level pullback risks. Long - term strategic long positions can be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions can be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of [85500, 88500] yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of [10600, 11200] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc continues to rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 22500 level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, and overseas zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 17.72% year - on - year. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded. The "Silver October" peak season is lackluster, demand is under pressure, and the galvanizing operating rate has declined. The domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory has slightly increased while the risk of a soft squeeze on LME zinc inventory persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the start of the "super macro week", zinc continues to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long - term supply is loose. After the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades, the upside space may be limited. Pay attention to the resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the long - term, zinc supply increases while demand decreases, so it is a short - side allocation in the sector. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of [22200, 22800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of [2980, 3080] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure at a high level, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are continued expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 4.405 million tons with an operating rate of 96%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, while the aluminum rod inventory increased. The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises remained flat. For alumina, the port inventory of imported bauxite is still at a high level, and some high - cost enterprises are reducing production, but the market remains in an oversupply situation in the short - term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum long positions on rallies in the short - term, pay attention to changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of [21000 - 21800] [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weak, and stainless steel faces pressure in its rebound [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the impact of Indonesia on nickel ore supply has weakened, and nickel ore supply is relatively sufficient. Domestic pure nickel inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. For stainless steel, the peak - season performance in the terminal consumption field needs further observation, and the inventory in major markets has increased. The expected increase in domestic stainless steel production will increase market pressure, and the terminal demand in the spot market is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main nickel contract is expected to trade in range of [120000 - 122000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC260 has a high - level pullback with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The marginal improvement of the fundamentals is highly certain, with total inventory decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the post - holiday destocking accelerating. Although supply is still increasing, production in Sichuan has slightly decreased due to a shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, and salt - lake production capacity is ramping up. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production of related materials is increasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on long positions in the range of [80500 - 82500] [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market shows a narrow - range oscillation. Although the US - China relationship has eased and the price has rebounded, the high - level production remains a factor. China maintains a 15% tariff on US corn and a 22% tariff on US sorghum, while the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. [4] - In the domestic market, the northern port corn prices are falling, and the northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. The north - south price difference is narrowing. The domestic corn has cost - effectiveness compared to wheat, but the short - term wheat price increase is limited due to the possible wheat auction. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprises have low inventory. [4][6] - The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The current inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The profit of starch enterprises is good due to the large decline in corn prices. The short - term 01 starch futures contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: Among corn futures, C2601 closed at 2123 with a 0.52% increase, C2605 at 2230 with a 0.58% increase, and C2509 at 2261 with a 0.49% increase. Among starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2424 with a 0.04% decrease, CS2605 at 2541 with a 0.16% decrease, and CS2509 at 2593 with a 0.19% decrease. [2] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in northern ports is around 2130 yuan, and the northeast corn spot price continues to decline. The north - south price difference is narrowing. The starch spot price is relatively stable, with the basis mostly positive. [2][6] - **Spread**: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 is - 107 with a - 2 change; for starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 117 with a 3 change; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 332 with a - 16 change. [2] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market oscillates narrowly. The domestic northern port corn prices are falling, and the northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. The north - south price difference is narrowing. The domestic corn has cost - effectiveness compared to wheat, but the short - term wheat price increase is limited. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprises have low inventory. [4][6] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is weak. The starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The short - term 01 starch futures contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see for 05 and 01 corn futures, and try to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch. [9] Third Part: Corn Options The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations. [11] Fourth Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis and spread of corn starch 01 contract, etc. [13][15][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with London spot gold closing at $4,112 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.3%, while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 936 yuan per gram, down 5.9% week-on-week [1] - The easing of tensions in US-China relations has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, as both sides reached a basic consensus on key economic and trade issues during a recent meeting [1] - US inflation data released last week was lower than expected, with CPI rising 0.3% and core CPI rising 0.2%, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The previous warning about the overheating risk in the gold market has been validated, and investors are advised to focus on asset allocation to mitigate risks while considering gold investments [2] - The outlook for the gold market remains positive due to the potential continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle and global central banks maintaining gold purchases amid declining US debt credit [2] - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs include updates on US-China negotiations and statements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that most futures varieties in the steel and related industries are expected to show a short - term bullish trend but with certain risks and limitations. For example, although there are some positive factors such as policy support and demand recovery, there are also issues like high inventory and weak overall supply - demand balance [1] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Weekly production and apparent demand have both increased, and inventory continues to decline. However, both supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Driven by the new regulations on capacity replacement in the steel industry and regional production control, it may run with a short - term volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] 2. **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the molten iron output is still high and the overall steel supply is at a high level, it may run with a short - term phased stronger trend due to policy support [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Molten iron output has decreased again, and steel mills and ports have accumulated inventory. Overseas ore shipments have increased at a high level, but arrivals have significantly decreased. Steel enterprises' profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are moderately weak. However, the easing of Sino - US relations has released positive macro - level signals [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, with short - term ore prices expected to run with a volatile and slightly stronger trend [9] Coke - **Variety View**: The second round of price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for a third - round increase. The game between coke producers and steel mills is obvious. Recently, coke producers' profits have decreased, and the scope of cost inversion has expanded. Steel mills' inventory levels are low, and some are still increasing inventory. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced [11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, expected to follow coking coal and run within a certain range in the short term [12] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production has decreased month - on - month. The supply side has been greatly affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications recently. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring raw material demand. Supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. There are occasional disturbances on the origin supply side, supporting the market performance, but there is some pressure for short - term price increases [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16] Ferroalloys 1. **Silicomanganese** - **Variety View**: The production area supply level is still at a high level compared to the same period. After the release of the new round of replenishment demand in downstream steel procurement, the difficulty of inventory reduction in the production area has further increased [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, but the upward driving force is still relatively limited. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20] 2. **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: Both supply and demand have weakened. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Pay attention to the situation of re - warehousing after cancellation [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to follow coal prices and run within a certain range in the short term. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level decline, strategic allocation value remains unchanged in the medium to long term [1] - Silver: High-level decline, long-term bullish after stabilization [1] - Copper: Long-term holding, short-term profit-taking [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short-term upside limited, medium to long-term bearish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range-bound operation [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various non-ferrous metals and new energy metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides insights into the short-term and long-term price trends, as well as investment strategies for each metal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the easing of Sino-US relations and the reduction of risk aversion, the prices of gold and silver have significantly adjusted. In the short term, risk assets have risen sharply, leading to an obvious outflow of funds from safe-haven gold and silver. However, in the long term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern, potentially maintaining a long-term upward trend [2][3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver. For domestic gold, focus on the 900 support level, and for silver, focus on the effectiveness of the 11000 support level. Long-term value investors should continue to hold their positions [4]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The price of copper has reached a new high this year, but it has given back some of its gains overnight. The market has fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino-US relations. In the short term, downstream demand is suppressed by high prices, and social inventories have increased. However, in the long term, copper is expected to benefit from the shortage of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [5][6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short-term long positions should be moved to take profits, and investors should avoid blindly chasing high prices. Long-term strategic long positions should be held, and industrial hedging should consider adding option protection. In the short term, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 86000 - 90000 yuan/ton, and the price of London copper is expected to trade in the range of 10600 - 11200 US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have continued to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long-term supply is relatively loose. The silver ten peak season has not been prosperous, and demand is under pressure. The domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas LME zinc inventories are at risk of a soft squeeze [8][9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space may be limited after the short-term macro policy stimulus fades. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the two resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the medium to long term, zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, remaining a short position in the sector. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, and the price of London zinc is expected to trade in the range of 2980 - 3080 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices have continued to rise, and the price of alumina has stabilized. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and domestic inventories have decreased. The demand side is relatively stable, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has remained flat [11][12][13]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices have rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices have also rebounded. Overseas, the supply of nickel ore has become relatively stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is in the peak season, but the performance is average, and the market is under pressure to destock [15][16][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is expected to be between 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price of lithium carbonate has shown a relatively strong trend. The fundamental situation has improved significantly, with total inventories decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the destocking rhythm accelerating after the holiday. Although the supply side continues to grow, the production in Sichuan has decreased slightly due to the shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, while the incremental contribution from the ramping up of salt lake production capacity. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production schedule for November is still relatively high [19][20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Long positions should be held, and investors can consider adding positions on pullbacks. The price of the main contract LC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 81000 - 84000 yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US relations and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" boost the overall demand for base metals, and the copper market is still favorable at the macro level [3]. - The supply gap in the copper market is expected to widen in 2026, and the negotiation of long - term contracts is difficult [3]. - The strong fundamentals of electrolytic copper are in a game with high copper prices, and downstream acceptance of high copper prices may decline [3]. - Although there are strong macro - level demand expectations for copper, the current actual demand is questionable [4]. - The fundamentals of the copper market are supported by the supply gap before 2026, and short - term variables are concentrated on the macro side. There may be short - term rapid declines, but they are good opportunities for long - positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesia incident has continuously pushed up the ore price, and data on 20% copper concentrate market price, TC price, refined - scrap copper price difference, and copper import profit are presented [7][8][9]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Spot - Futures Market Price**: The copper mine incident is the dominant factor, and data on Shanghai copper spot - futures price, basis, Yangshan Bonded Area premium, and LME copper and COMEX copper prices are shown [11][12][15]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation continues to increase, and data on overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position are provided [16][17][21]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Data on copper concentrate net import volume, electrolytic copper net import volume, and scrap copper net import volume are presented [27][28][29]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Information on electrolytic copper monthly output, production rate, production cost, profit, and weekly inventory (including market inventory and factory inventory) is provided [32][34][36]. 3.3 Macro Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Data on the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, real interest rate, and inflation are presented [38][39][41]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Information on US employment, market confidence index, social retail sales, inventory, central bank total assets, GDP growth rate, and stock index closing price is provided. The Fed hints at a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction [48][49][54]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Data on M1, M2 growth rates, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, social consumer goods retail sales, and GDP growth rate are presented [58][63][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" may bring new expectations. Data on electrolytic copper monthly demand, copper foil production rate, terminal product output growth rate, and fixed - asset investment completion growth rate are provided [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows the introduction of China's 15th Five - Year Plan and the easing of Sino - US relations, improving market sentiment. On the demand side, last week, steel mill开工率 declined, maintenance increased slightly, and hot metal production adjusted slightly, which is expected to peak and decline in the medium term. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, with last week's overseas shipments rising month - on - month and arrivals falling, both at the highest levels in the past three years. It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | 9 | 0.30 | 5713284 | 2644571 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3250 | 46 | 1.44 | 2311059 | 1501678 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1404210 | 561141 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1248.5 | 69.5 | 5.89 | 5960825 | 939022 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1757.5 | 81.5 | 4.86 | 116416 | 49180 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week and 2.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points from the previous week and 17.32 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons from the previous week but an increase of 4.21 tons from the same period last year [6]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3333.5 tons, an increase of 126.0 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2825.0 tons, an increase of 94.0 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 15109.49 tons, an increase of 147.62 tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 322.07 tons, a decrease of 7.25 tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [8]. Industry News - From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment was 371535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%; and total retail sales of consumer goods were 365877 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [9]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 7349 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 6605 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; and steel production was 12421 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [9]. - From January to September, national real estate development investment was 67706 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 648580 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing construction area was 45399 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. The housing completion area was 31129 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3% [9]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - From October 25th to 26th, the Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [9]. - President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea from October 30th to November 1st [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", stating that in key areas, the total iron and steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of iron and steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas or between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for iron - making and steel - making in each province (region, city) shall not be less than 1.5:1 [9]. Related Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, production, inventory, and other aspects of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc [12][14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced significant volatility, with a drop of nearly 3% approaching the $4000 mark, followed by a rebound above $4100, indicating a turbulent market environment for gold [2][4][5]. Market Performance - On October 22, the international gold price saw a sharp decline, with both London gold and COMEX gold dropping over 5%, translating to a decrease of more than $200 per ounce in a single day [5]. - The latest trading data shows COMEX gold prices fluctuating, with a high of $4146.7 and a low of $4021.2, reflecting the market's instability [5]. Economic Indicators - U.S. President Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are too high, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, and a 98.7% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [6]. - Recent geopolitical developments, including a joint statement from various European leaders supporting a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, may influence market sentiment and gold prices [7]. Future Outlook - Citibank predicts that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the announcement of a U.S.-China agreement could lead to a period of consolidation for gold prices over the next 2-3 weeks, with a revised short-term bearish outlook and a target price of $4000 per ounce [8].