白银正在抢夺黄金的光环。 周四现货白银一度暴涨4.5%，触及每盎司36美元整数关口的上方，创下2012年2月以来最高水平。德国贵金属精炼商Heraeus Group高级交易员 Alexander Zumpfe指出，这轮涨势由技术动能、基本面改善和更广泛的投资者兴趣共同推动。Zumpfe表示： 在落后黄金数周后，白银现在正在迎头赶上，这表明趋势投资者重新燃起兴趣，正在轮动至白银。 过去12个月，受益于美国主导的关税战升级以及各国央行持续大举购金，黄金涨幅高达42%。相比之下，白银涨幅约15%，明显落后。 与纯粹的货币属性黄金不同，白银具有双重属性——既是金融资产，也是工业原料。 作为工业原料，白银在清洁能源技术中扮演关键角色，特别是太阳能电池板制造的核心材料，需求持续增长。这一定程度上为价格提供了坚实的 基本面支撑。 根据行业组织白银协会数据，白银市场正迈向连续第五年供应赤字，供需失衡格局进一步恶化。 区别于纯粹依赖避险需求的黄金，这种结构性短缺为白银价格上涨奠定了结构性基础。 降息预期成催化剂 宏观环境的变化为白银涨势提供了最后一块拼图。 但周四的爆发性上涨正在缩小这一差距，交易所的白银交易基金出现显著资金流 ...

建信期货分析称，需求端，玻璃需求端受季节性因素影响明显。当前正值传统梅雨季，建筑施工活动受 限，玻璃终端需求持续走弱。同时，行业中游库存处于高位，成为价格上行的主要阻力，而玻璃产能去 化进程缓慢，导致后期库存存在进一步累积压力。下游方面，当前国内房地产竣工环节尚未出现实质性 改善，行业下行趋势仍在延续。尽管市场对增量政策落地保持期待，但预计政策效果更多体现为短期市 场情绪提振，难以从根本上扭转供需失衡局面。综合上述因素，预计玻璃期货主力合约短期内将维持低 位震荡走势。 中辉期货表示，目前玻璃开工率和日熔量低位回升，原料纯碱和燃料煤炭价格持续创新低，玻璃成本重 心下移，进一步拖累盘面价格，抄底仍不具有安全边际。 6月5日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报983.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，玻璃主力最高触及985.00元，下方探低957.00元，跌幅达1.34%附近。 目前来看，玻璃行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于玻璃后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 华联期货指出，上周玻璃2条产线复产点火，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，开工率环比小幅上升，周熔 量延续增长 ...

【原油、甲醇、烧碱、铁矿石市场动态】据EIA报告，截至5月30日，美国除却战略储备的商业原油库 存减少430.4万桶至4.36亿桶，汽油库存增521.9万桶。当周美国国内原油产量增加0.7万桶至1340.8万桶/ 日。当地时间6月4日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊称，伊朗实现完整核燃料循环，核工业是基础工业。若 OPEC+持续增产，或使全球原油市场长期供应过剩，加剧供需失衡，给油价带来下行压力。短期地缘 政治及低库存有支撑，可短线参与。 中国甲醇港口样本库存58.1万吨，周升5.8万吨；生产企业库存 37.05万吨，周增1.55万吨；订单待发26.22万吨，周增1.23万吨。江苏太仓甲醇市场价2302元/吨，升27 元/吨；开工87.19%，周升0.22%；内蒙古黑猫30万吨/年装置预计近期结束检修；下游总产能利用率 71.65%，周降0.54%。成本端煤炭价格预期稳，国内甲醇开工高位运行，下游需求较稳，本周外轮到港 充足，港口库存累库。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡，上方压力2270一线，建议观望或短线做空。 山东 32%液碱880元/吨，环比持平；液碱持稳、液氯价格稳定，氯碱利润681元/吨；烧碱周度产能利用率 84. ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍 生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间 2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关 税仍将维持在25%。评：避险情绪再度增加，利多黄金，但是美 元指数大幅反弹，有所抵消。地缘政治和关税博弈变数增加， 避险需求增加，黄金短期偏多。黄金中期依然高位震荡对待， 关注关税矛盾是否进一步激化。 【短评-橡胶】泰国胶水大跌，下跌4.75泰铢/公斤至56.5 泰铢/公斤；版纳原料下跌，制干胶胶水下跌0.1-0.2元/公斤至 12.5-12.6元/公斤，制浓乳胶水下跌0.1元/公斤至12.8-12.9元 /公斤；海南原料持稳。割胶工作还未完全恢复，原料产出偏 紧，国营胶水收购价为13900元/吨，民营胶水收购价为14900- 15300元/吨；截至2025年5月29日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利 用率为72.51%，环比-1.23个百分点，同比-7.58个百分点；中 国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为60.80%，环比-1.29个百分点， 同比-4.40个百分点。评：国内现货价格持续走低，带动原料价 格整体下滑 ...

日本央行：市场流动性相应收紧，尤其是在超长期债券市场，供需失衡情况显著。 ...

Core Insights - The decline in apartment construction has exacerbated housing challenges for young Australians, who are already struggling to enter the housing market [1][3] - The "Australian Dream" of owning a home has become increasingly unattainable for those born after 1990 without financial support [3] - Residential approvals fell by 5.7% in April to 14,633 units, primarily due to a 19% drop in approvals for non-detached housing [3][6] Housing Market Dynamics - The approval rate for private sector detached homes increased by 3.1%, but this was insufficient to offset the decline in apartment approvals [3][6] - The median house price has risen over 30% since the pandemic, while rental vacancy rates remain near historical lows [6] - The construction of affordable housing suitable for first-time buyers has not kept pace with market demand, leading to a challenging situation for young Australians [6] Government and Policy Response - There are calls for federal and state governments to intervene decisively to accelerate housing construction and reduce regulatory burdens on medium-density developments [8] - The Institute of Public Affairs highlighted that new housing approvals have consistently fallen short of the targets set by the National Housing Agreement, lagging by 27% [8] - The time from approval to completion of a house has increased by 50% over the past decade, indicating inefficiencies in the housing market [11] Future Outlook - The expected net immigration of 1.3 million over the next three years will further widen the supply-demand gap in the housing market [8][9] - Critics argue that the federal government has misjudged the housing market's capacity and underestimated immigration growth, contributing to rising prices and rents [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market will continue to experience significant volatility into 2025, driven by policy dynamics and supply-demand imbalances, with U.S. policy movements being the largest variable affecting the market [1]. Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to gradually find a bottom, having fallen from $85 per barrel in January to $60 per barrel currently, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The increase in oil supply in 2021 and 2022, coupled with a mismatch in supply and demand, has led to a sustained decline in oil prices [1]. - The U.S. government's aim to lower inflation by reducing oil prices and increasing energy production has been highlighted as a significant factor [2]. Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand remains strong, with a noted decline in U.S. demand, particularly in air travel, which decreased by approximately 2% from April to May [2]. - Despite the weakening demand in the U.S., international travel demand, especially from Europe, has reached new highs [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on energy revenues [2]. - Investments in tourism, fintech, and logistics are becoming focal points for these regions, decreasing the likelihood of escalating regional conflicts [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices are projected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, from 400 tons annually to 800 tons in 2022 and 1000 tons in 2023, with expectations of continued high demand [3][4]. - The emergence of new investors, particularly overseas holders of U.S. financial assets, is contributing to increased gold purchases, with a potential 0.5% shift of their $57 trillion in assets into gold leading to an additional 500 tons of demand annually [4]. Metal Market - The metal market, particularly copper, is facing challenges due to high prices and potential trade tensions, with copper currently priced at $9,500 per ton [4]. - The metal market is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S. policy changes, contrasting with the more stable outlook for oil prices [4].

作 者丨陈嘉玲 编 辑丨和佳 图 源 丨新华社 日本国债市场正处于风暴中心。 被视为全球最安全资产之一的日本国债，在近期连续两场关 键超长期国债拍卖中接连遭遇"滑铁卢"，创下历史最差认购纪录 ，引发市场对"买方罢工"与 财政可持续性的剧烈担忧。 5月28日，日本财务省标售5000亿日元（约合35亿美元）2065年3月到期的40年期国债。结果 显示，此次标售的最高中标利率为3.1350%，超出市场预期区间（3.070%～3.110%），为自 2007年11月该品种开始发行以来的最高水平。投标倍数为2.21，也创下自2024年7月以来的最 低。 而前一周， 日本20年期国债出现了自2012年以来的最差拍卖：投标倍数跌至2.5倍 ，尾差 （最低与平均中标价格差距）飙升至1987年以来最高水平。 这场债券"灾难"引发日本长期国 债全线暴跌，30年期、40年期国债收益率双双飙升至历史新高，且连续多日无人出价。 市场将两次国债拍卖解读为投资者需求不足的"低迷"表现，引发对供需失衡的担忧。在40年 期日债标售结果出炉后，各期限日债收益率纷纷重新上涨，收窄了周二债市利好传闻下的跌 幅。 其中，日本40年期国债收益率一度涨至3 ...

Group 1 - Japanese government bond auction demand was weak, leading to a significant drop in Japanese bonds and a rise in yields, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 10 basis points to 2.93% [2][5] - The U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.47%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health are growing due to rising deficits from tax cuts and tariffs, impacting investor sentiment towards the dollar, which has seen a nearly 7% decline this year [8] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector saw a rise in stock prices ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with notable increases in shares of Samsung Electronics (up over 3%) and TSMC (up over 2%) [5] - Analysts expect strong demand for Nvidia chips in the coming quarters, supported by comments from major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [5] - Japan proposed purchasing billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductor products during trade negotiations, indicating potential growth in this sector [5] Group 3 - The Asian stock markets erased early gains, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6% and the Nikkei 225 closing nearly unchanged at 37,722.4 points [1] - The price of rebar steel has fallen to an eight-year low, trading around 2,958 yuan, with an 11% decline in price year-to-date [12] - Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin down by 0.2% and Ethereum down by 1.1% [9]