世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行相继把对中国明年经济的增长预测往上调。幅度不算夸张，但方向一致：世行上 调 0.4 个百分点、IMF 上调 0.2 个百分点、亚开行上调 0.1 个百分点。对国际机构来说，预测值的每一位小幅调整，都代表判 断逻辑的更新。 从今年的运行情况看，中国经济的韧性确实比很多人年初时的预期更强。财政端持续加力、货币政策保持宽松，让消费和投资 在压力下仍保持活力；出口市场逐步多元化，也给外需带来了更稳定的支撑。今年的整体表现，让国际机构有足够理由把来年 的增长预期重新梳理。 更值得注意的是，这些机构并没有只谈短期。世行中国区首席经济学家米丽莎认为，中国的长期增长潜力依然可观，而关键仍 在于科技创新和生产力提升；资源配置效率的继续改善，意味着潜在增速并没有外界担心的那样迅速下滑。 IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃则把目光放在"内需"这一核心变量上。她提到，中国正在通过更精准的政策组合来增强消费的稳定性： 完善社保体系、提高养老支持、发放育儿补贴，整治资源浪费型的竞争环境……这些举措，会影响中期的增长质量，让经济结 构更健康，也让信心更稳定。 从吉融的角度看，这类判断并不只是宏观层面的好消息，更 ...

Economic Policy Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance economic growth quality and reasonable growth quantity[5] - Fiscal deficit and total debt levels are expected to remain similar to this year, indicating sustained fiscal support[5] - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, utilizing tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[5] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand is prioritized as the main task for next year, with a focus on expanding consumption and stabilizing investment[6] - The conference highlighted the need to implement consumption-boosting actions and to continue policies like trade-in programs to stimulate consumer spending[6] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investments and directing funds towards key areas such as technology innovation and support for small and medium enterprises[6] Risk Management and Structural Reforms - The conference identified real estate and local government debt as key risk areas, with strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks[7] - Emphasis on creating a unified national market and enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policies, including both existing and new policies[6] - The need for a robust management mechanism for expectations was also highlighted to boost social confidence[6] Long-term Economic Goals - The overarching goal remains to build a strong domestic market and enhance the integration of domestic and international trade[12] - The focus on innovation and technology is set to drive new productivity, with initiatives to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions[6] - The commitment to green transformation and sustainable development is underscored, with plans for energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives[12]

3)内需方向：优化结构是核心，推动消费端释放潜力，投资端止跌回稳； 4)科技方向：强调财政优势区域的集群效应，"人工智能+"依旧是科技主线； 5)"内卷式"竞争：并入改革章节意味着"反内卷"和"国企改革"会是2026年的政策重点； 6)化解风险章节：从"防范"转向"积极化解"，打开地产和化债的政策空间。 林荣雄重点指出，重要会议提到"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，结合 央行三季度货政例会提及的"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，这是一个极具信号意义的变化。 可以看出，2026年货币政策的锚就是增长和通胀，决策层对于稳增长和推动通胀回升的诉求较为明确。 12月11日，重要会议通稿发布后，多家研究机构参照以往会议，以及"十五五"，进行了解读。 国投证券首席策略分析师林荣雄认为，此次重要会议有六大值得关注的信号： 1)财政政策：从"提赤字、加力度"转向"稳赤字、重落实"； 2)货币政策：把"经济增长"和"物价回升"纳入核心KPI； 中金公司（601995）也指出，"十五五"明确提出"居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用 持续增强"是"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

Daily Spotlight 11 December 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,541 | 0.4 | 27.3 | | HSCEI | 8,955 | 0.2 | 22.8 | | HSCCI | 4,119 | (0.3) | 8.9 | | MSCI HK | 13,504 | (0.7) | 27.8 | | MSCI CHINA | 84 | 0.2 | 29.3 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 15,272 | (0.6) | 13.0 | | CSI 300 | 4,592 | (0.1) | 16.7 | | TWSE | 28,401 | 0.8 | 23.3 | | SENSEX | 84,666 | (0.5) | 8.4 | | NIKKEI 225 | 50,603 | (0.1) | 26.8 | | K ...

新京报贝壳财经讯(记者张晓翀)12月11日，世界银行发布最新一期中国经济简报称，2025年第三季度中 国经济保持稳健势头，年初至今GDP同比增长5.2%。宽松的财政和货币政策支撑了国内消费和投资， 而来自其他发展中国家的需求也维持了出口增长。 世界银行中国、蒙古和韩国局局长华玛雅表示："未来几年，中国经济增长将更多依靠内需。除短期财 政刺激外，推进社会保障体系的结构性改革，为企业营造更可预期的营商环境，将有助于提振信心，为 实现有韧性、可持续的增长奠定基础。" 经济前景面临的风险大致平衡。房地产业存在挑战、盈利前景偏弱、劳动力市场疲软以及贸易政策不确 定性等因素的持续时间可能长于预期，从而拖累消费和投资。从上行风险来看，高于预期的财政支出， 包括加大力度健全社会保障以及更果断的稳定房地产业的政策行动，可能会使经济增长超过当前预测。 这期简报还分析了高储蓄率与居民消费行为之间的关系。中国居民储蓄近一半投资于房产，约四分之一 为银行存款。对低风险银行存款的偏好与预防性储蓄需求和长期金融产品有限有关，而近期也受房价下 行和收入预期趋于谨慎的影响。大量居民存款虽然提供了低成本资金，但也可能削弱价格信号，导致资 本配置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current low price levels are closely related to the relatively weak domestic demand, and the next phase will focus on boosting internal demand and stabilizing prices, which will positively impact the stabilization of CPI [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - Throughout the first eleven months of the year, there were six months with negative year-on-year CPI growth, leading to an average CPI that remained flat compared to the previous year [2]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year in November, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [2][3]. Group 2: Food Prices Impact - The rise in food prices was a significant factor contributing to the increase in CPI in November, with seasonal growth in food prices driving the year-on-year CPI growth [3]. - The impact of food prices on CPI shifted from a negative contribution of -0.54 percentage points in the previous month to a positive contribution of 0.04 percentage points in November [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts caution that the recent rise in CPI should not be oversimplified as a sign of economic recovery, as the supply-demand relationship indicates a significant imbalance with supply being forced to contract [4]. - The overall economic cycle is characterized by demand contraction leading to supply adjustments and declining economic growth, which further exacerbates demand contraction [4]. - The core CPI's upward trend suggests some improvement in domestic consumption demand, but the foundation for sustained improvement remains fragile, requiring ongoing policy support [4]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The adjustment of the CPI growth target from around 3% to 2% reflects a more realistic approach given the current economic conditions, aiming to avoid deflation [5]. - The lower CPI target is seen as a benchmark rather than a ceiling, indicating a policy effort to bridge the gap between nominal and real GDP growth [5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, maintaining stable price growth will remain a key macroeconomic policy goal, with various initiatives expected to support CPI recovery [5].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 2023 and since March 2024 [1] - Urban CPI rose by 0.7%, while rural CPI increased by 0.4%. Food prices saw a 0.2% rise, and non-food prices increased by 0.8% [1] - The increase in CPI is attributed to seasonal price rebounds in food items, particularly fresh vegetables, which contributed significantly to the CPI's upward movement [2][4] Group 2 - Core CPI remains resilient despite a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [2] - The rise in core CPI is supported by increasing gold prices and the effects of domestic demand expansion policies, which have led to price increases in household goods and clothing [2][4] - The potential for sustained improvement in CPI relies on continued policy support, particularly in stimulating consumption in sectors like dining and tourism [4] Group 3 - The Asian economy is expected to shift towards a more balanced and sustainable growth model by 2025, with inflation projected to decline significantly due to falling food prices [3] - A low inflation environment in 2026 may support a continued easing of monetary policy across several Asian countries, including China, which could create investment opportunities [3] - The main macroeconomic risk for Asia is not high inflation but the combination of deflationary pressures and high real policy rates, which could hinder economic recovery [3]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 内需依然偏弱，关注外需波动 11 月 CPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略低于万得一致预期； CPI 同比上行主要靠食品价格，特别是鲜菜价格的拉动，服务价格环比出现 季节性回落；PPI 环比增速连续两个月增长，但 11 月同比降幅较 10 月小幅 扩大，主要受输入性因素影响。 相关研究报告 《政治局会议点评》20251209 《稳中求进、提质增效》20251208 《全面布局"十五五"》20251208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 11 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%，同比增长 0.7%，核心 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，服 务价格同比增长 0.7%，消费品价格同比增长 0.6%。 ...

中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议强调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 ...