Economic Performance - In July, industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6%[7] Investment Trends - In July, fixed asset investment experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, driven by manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments dropping by 0.3%, 5.1%, and 17.0% respectively[8] - The construction installation engineering growth rate fell to -6.0% in July, indicating a downturn in the construction sector[8] Consumption Insights - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors declining[8] - Restaurant revenue growth remained low, with a slight increase to 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak consumer spending in the service sector[8] Export Dependency - The report emphasizes that export performance remains a critical anchor for growth, as domestic demand alone may not suffice to fill production gaps if exports weaken[8] - July saw a decline in export delivery value growth, dropping below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a weakening support for production from exports[8] Risk Factors - External economic volatility and uncertainty in policy responses pose risks to future growth, particularly if export trends continue to decline[8][9]

Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger car sales growth has declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded[2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline of 8%, while second-hand housing sales volume increased, but prices fell[2] - Retail sales of home appliances in August showed a downward trend in year-on-year growth[2] External Demand - The extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. for three months has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[2] - Overall exports are weakening, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) showing a decrease in shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput[2] Production - Manufacturing employment index has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline continuing[2] - Steel production has decreased due to maintenance and operational adjustments, while rebar prices have started to rise[2] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices, while domestic rebar prices have increased, and cement and coal prices continue to rise[2] - The geopolitical situation and rising U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices[2] Risks - Potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the forecasts[2]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, primarily driven by the EU, ASEAN, and other emerging markets. However, the introduction of a 40% transit tariff by the US may impact re-export trade, increasing the likelihood of a decline in exports [2] - Despite potential export declines, the recovery of European manufacturing and ongoing expansion in emerging markets are expected to provide support for exports to the EU, Africa, and the Middle East [2] Group 2: Convertible Bond Strategy - The report indicates that as equity indices continue to rise and demand for fixed income remains strong, the valuation of convertible bonds is approaching high levels, leading to some profit-taking by absolute return funds. However, if the equity market does not experience significant pullbacks, the demand for convertible bonds may still exist [3] - The report suggests a non-typical barbell strategy focusing on sectors such as military industry, AI computing, and low-altitude economy, complemented by low-volatility dividends and high-cost performance varieties to navigate potential market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Home Appliance Industry - The company has developed a robust global manufacturing and sales system for air conditioning over more than 30 years, characterized by a stable shareholding structure and an experienced management team. Its growth model combines high cost-performance, channel flattening, and overseas localization [5] - The company has established a competitive advantage through product innovation, channel transformation, and supply chain optimization, with a business structure that supports both household and central air conditioning [5] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector - The company reported a revenue of 17.087 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2% year-on-year [7] - The food segment achieved a revenue of 5.382 billion yuan, growing 8.8% year-on-year, while the beverage segment generated 10.788 billion yuan, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with tea beverages showing particularly strong performance [8] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits of 2.3 billion yuan, 2.61 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 13.4%, and 11.7% [8]

Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key areas for the second half of the year, including expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains [5][6] - The interbank market trading association issued a notice to regulate the issuance and underwriting of bonds, prohibiting lead underwriters from quoting below cost [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025 [5][6] Secondary Market - The equity market saw a collective decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, Shenzhen Component down 1.58%, and ChiNext down 0.74% [7] - The convertible bond market followed suit, with major indices also declining, and the average daily trading volume remained above 800 billion yuan [9] - The average price of convertible bonds decreased to 142.36 yuan, with a median of 127.21 yuan, reflecting a decline in both price and valuation levels [19] Primary Market - No new convertible bonds were issued last week, but the Ber 25 convertible bond was listed, experiencing a first-week increase of over 32% [24] - The total outstanding convertible bond market size is 6,549.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 788.95 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [24]

7 月政治局会议的投资机会展望 20250730 摘要 政治局会议强调底线思维，财政和货币政策需落实细化，保持连续性与 稳定性，增强灵活性和预见性，以应对不确定性，但减少了逆周期调节 措施，更注重现有政策的落实。 会议将内需置于首位，扩大商品消费，培育数字、AI、健康等服务消费 新增长点。投资方面，强调扩大有效投资，注重效益，旨在提高整体经 济效益。 供给侧改革方面，继续推进反内卷，但表述温和，从治理低价无序竞争 转为治理无序竞争，从推动落后产能退出改为重点行业产能治理，旨在 优化产业结构。 房地产市场方面，以高质量城市更新代替传统开发，引导房地产业向高 质量发展转变，避免过度依赖房地产拉动经济增长，实现可持续发展。 会议强调增强国内资本市场吸引力和包容性，巩固回稳向好的势头，政 策将继续呵护基本面和资本市场，推动市场行情向好，支持金融市场发 展。 Q&A 2025 年 7 月份的中共中央政治局会议有哪些重要议题和政策部署？ 2025 年 7 月份的中共中央政治局会议讨论了多个重要议题，包括消费、投资、 科技以及国内国际双循环等方面的政策部署。这次会议具有特殊意义，因为它 是五年规划前一年召开的政治局会议，与 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production in China shows divergence, with raw material production demonstrating relative resilience[1] - Daily pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, while steel and construction material production and apparent demand have marginally declined[1] - The operating rates for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products have recovered, while cement clinker capacity utilization remains stable compared to last week[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 18.4% year-on-year as of August 1, 2025, with a 19.3% decline in July compared to the previous month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month-on-month as of July 21, 2025[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - National retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-27, 2025, reached 1.445 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year, while the total market for July is estimated at around 1.85 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 18.5% year-on-year as of July 25, 2025[1] - Daily movie box office revenue averaged 230 million yuan, a 27.9% increase year-on-year, with a government subsidy program in Beijing to encourage attendance[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of July 27, 2025, with container throughput up by 5.6%[1] - South Korea's export value grew by 5.9% year-on-year in July, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from June[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 3.8%, with the black raw materials index down by 5.6%[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 4.6%, while spot prices decreased by 2.3%; coking coal futures fell by 13.2%, but spot prices rose by 1.2%[1]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year [3] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, while the import and export scale reached over 20 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% [3] National Unified Market - The construction of a national unified market has shown positive results, with a basic framework established and social consensus significantly enhanced [4] - The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP decreased to 14%, marking the lowest level since records began, saving over 130 billion yuan in logistics costs [4] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending exhibited three main characteristics: accelerated growth, increased highlights, and improved environment [5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5% in the first half of the year, with a contribution rate of 52% from final consumption to economic growth [5] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan, with various departments and localities organizing diverse consumption promotion activities [5] Major Projects and Investments - The list of major strategic projects and key area safety capability construction has been fully allocated with 800 billion yuan, and 7.35 billion yuan of central budget investment has been largely disbursed [6] Healthcare Initiatives - The healthcare foundation project has been initiated to enhance local healthcare capabilities, supporting around 600 county-level medical communities with over 11,000 medical equipment [7] - A model promoting "township inspections, county-level diagnoses, and mutual recognition of results" is being implemented [7] Electricity Demand - The highest electricity load in the country has reached a historical peak of 1.508 billion kilowatts, an increase of 57 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission is coordinating with localities and key enterprises to ensure stable electricity supply and meet demand effectively [8] Consumer Bond Funding - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in special government bonds for consumer "old-for-new" programs has been allocated, with plans for a fourth batch of the same amount in October [9]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a pullback on August 1, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 0.77% after a drop of over 1% during the day [1] - Despite the recent pullback, the chemical sector has shown strong performance since July, with the chemical ETF's index gaining 6.51% from July 1 to August 1, outperforming major A-share indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (3.35%) and the CSI 300 Index (3.02%) [3][4] - The chemical ETF has seen significant net inflows, with over 96 million yuan in net subscriptions in the last five trading days and over 280 million yuan in the last ten trading days [4] Group 2 - Analysts are optimistic about the chemical sector due to the "anti-involution" policy expectations, which have led to a recovery in valuations and product prices in the petrochemical and chemical industries [6] - The current market conditions are seen as a favorable time for investment in the chemical sector, with the chemical ETF's index price-to-book ratio at 2.05, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [7] - Future profitability in the chemical industry is expected to improve as "anti-involution" policies are implemented and raw material prices stabilize, presenting new investment opportunities [8] Group 3 - Investment strategies are diversifying, with a focus on "anti-involution," domestic demand, and domestic substitution, particularly in sectors like explosives and agricultural chemicals [8] - The chemical ETF (516020) provides an efficient way to invest in the sector, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating on large-cap stocks, which allows investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coke**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall industrial product futures market is under pressure, and the short - term market is affected by factors such as weak demand and "anti - involution" policies. Different varieties have different fundamentals and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices dropped significantly. This week, thread steel's apparent demand weakened, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and the market's negative feedback pressure was low under the low - inventory pattern. The overall domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a relatively high level. The "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact, and the futures market was under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices declined. The global shipment was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume was weak. The port inventory was volatile and might decline slightly in the short term. Steel mills had good profitability, had no motivation to cut production actively, and replenished iron ore stocks. The iron - water production remained high. The market sentiment cooled down, and the price was expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price dropped significantly during the day. The fifth round of price increases by coking enterprises had thin profits, and the daily production increased slightly. The overall inventory continued to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was good. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the coke price was more affected by steel prices [4] Coking Coal - The main - contract price of coking coal hit the daily limit during the day, and the far - month price also hit the limit. The total inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. The "anti - involution" and coal over - production inspection policies had a positive impact on prices. The further downward space was relatively limited [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose first and then fell during the day. The long - term expectation of manganese ore inventory accumulation was improved, but it would still accumulate in the second half of the year, with a small short - term accumulation range. The forward price of manganese ore increased, and the price bottom of silicon manganese gradually rose [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon - iron price rose first and then fell during the day. The iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 242. The export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The silicon - iron price followed the silicon - manganese trend, and the power cost might decline again [7]

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate rebounded to 3% quarter-on-quarter annualized in Q2 2025, while the actual year-on-year growth rate remained at 2%, indicating a downward trend since Q3 2023[4] - Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) fell to a new low of 1.2% in Q2 2025, down from 1.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a continued slowdown in domestic demand[7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in Q2 2025 recorded a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.4%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improved consumer confidence following reduced tariff uncertainties[5] - Year-on-year consumer spending growth fell to 2.4%, with services being the main contributor to this decline[8] Investment Trends - Investment fell sharply in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -15.6%, a decrease of 39.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by the end of pre-tariff inventory accumulation[14] - Year-on-year investment growth also declined to -0.1%, with non-residential construction investment dropping to -3.8%[14] Trade Dynamics - Exports fell by -1.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, while imports saw a significant decline of -30.3%, down 68.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a retreat from the previous quarter's import surge[20] - Year-on-year import growth decreased by 11.6 percentage points to 1.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2023, excluding Q1 2025[20] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, suggesting an increase in individuals permanently exiting the labor market[21] - Non-farm payrolls increased slightly to 147,000 in June, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly[21]