Group 1 - The dollar index has weakened again after a brief rebound, hovering around 98.50, indicating that the support factors for the dollar are not solid [1] - The upcoming U.S. December ADP employment numbers and ISM non-manufacturing PMI are key indicators that reflect the employment market and service sector sentiment, crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy [3] - Geopolitical factors have limited the dollar's safe-haven appeal, as market reactions to U.S. involvement in Venezuela have been relatively calm, suggesting that political risks have not yet translated into systemic safe-haven demand [3] Group 2 - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is becoming a significant factor suppressing the dollar, with some officials advocating for substantial rate cuts while others express caution regarding employment prospects [3][4] - Concerns about new personnel arrangements potentially altering policy direction or communication style are adding emotional pressure on the dollar, despite a high probability of maintaining current interest rates [4] - The weakening of the dollar index is driven by a combination of economic data forecasts, policy divergences, and accumulated uncertainties, with the market likely to reassess the dollar's medium-term direction based on data and policy signals [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Daily Viewpoint**: On Monday, the futures market showed strong performance due to positive sentiment in energy - chemical products caused by geopolitical factors, rising overseas prices, and strong LPG spot prices. The 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 185 (-25). As of 8 pm, FEI and CP paper prices rose by $4.25 and $8.25 respectively compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Weekly Viewpoint**: The domestic market fluctuated this week, rising after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then falling back. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6398. Domestic civil gas prices were differentiated, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20). Overseas prices rose, and the January CP official prices for propane and butane were 520/525 (+35/+30). The domestic - overseas price relationship strengthened. Overall, the Venezuela event may affect crude oil and thus LPG prices, and the overseas LPG market has near - term support. Domestically, the domestic - overseas price ratio is high but the basis is low. The strong spot and poor PDH profits may lead to negative feedback, and future drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH plant conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed various changes. For example, South China LPG rose from 4510 on December 29, 2025, to 4865 on January 6, 2026. The daily change on January 6, 2026, showed a 5 - point increase in South China LPG, 44 points in East China LPG, etc. [1] - **Spread and Basis Data**: The 02 - 03 spread and 03 - 04 spread changed both on a daily and weekly basis. The basis of 02 also changed. For example, on a daily basis, the 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and on a weekly basis, it was 119 (+7) [1]. - **Overseas Market Data**: FEI and CP paper prices rose on January 6. The January CP official prices for propane and butane were higher than before. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 from the previous period). East China propane arrival premium, AFEI, Middle East, and US propane January FOB premiums also changed [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The report believes that the crude oil market is dominated by supply - demand surplus, and the price of domestic crude oil futures is expected to run weakly with a volatile trend. Although geopolitical risks may drive up oil prices, the long - term logic of weak supply - demand fundamentals will suppress oil prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "oscillating", and the short - term downward trend of domestic crude oil futures still exists [1][5] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "oscillating" [1][5] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "weak", with a reference view of "running weakly" [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factor**: During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and the US president's threat to other South American countries, which may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5] - **Negative Factor**: The long - term logic of the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the main reason for the suppression of oil prices. The global supply surplus concern persists, and the pessimistic sentiment among funds remains [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of geopolitical instability, particularly the recent U.S. actions in Venezuela, on gold and silver prices, leading to a notable increase in demand for these precious metals [1][3]. - Gold futures for February 2026 rose by $130.1 to $4459.70 per ounce, marking a 3.00% increase, while silver futures saw a rise of 7.74% to $76.51 per ounce [1][4]. - The World Gold Council reported that gold prices experienced a 67% increase in 2025, the best performance since 1979, and anticipates that geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the market in early 2026 [2]. Group 2 - Analysts believe that geopolitical instability will remain a key driver for gold demand and price trends in 2026, with close attention on the Federal Reserve's dynamics, including personnel changes and interest rate policies [3]. - The next bullish target for February gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $4584, while the bearish target is to fall below the technical support level of $4200 [3]. - For March silver futures, the next bullish target is to surpass the strong technical resistance level of $82.67, while the bearish target is to drop below the strong support level of $69.225 [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. military action in Venezuela, which has increased safe-haven demand [1][2] - On February 5, 2026, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $130.1, closing at $4459.70 per ounce, marking a 3.00% increase [1] - Silver futures for March delivery saw a substantial increase of 7.74%, closing at $76.51 per ounce [3] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that gold prices experienced a correction in the last week of 2025 but still rose by 67% for the entire year, the best performance since 1979 [2] - Geopolitical instability is expected to continue driving gold demand and price trends in 2026, with market attention on the Federal Reserve's actions, including personnel changes and interest rate policies [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the next bullish target for February gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $4584, while the bearish target is to fall below the support level of $4200 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent geopolitical factors have driven oil prices higher, including stalled peace negotiations in Ukraine, tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, and escalating situations in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Despite high gasoline and distillate fuel inventories in the U.S., commercial crude oil inventories remain low [1] - Short-term oil prices are expected to exhibit a strong oscillating trend [1] Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry Index - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of securities related to the oil and gas industry [1]

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, reaching a historical high of $4525.42 before profit-taking led to a pullback, raising concerns about a potential top formation [1][6] - The market is expected to remain subdued due to the Christmas holiday, with limited volatility anticipated in domestic gold prices [1][6] - A breakthrough of the upward trendline pressure suggests that if prices decline further, support levels around $4380 should be monitored for potential bullish entries [1][6] Group 2 - Trump's comments about the Federal Reserve indicate a more accommodative monetary policy, with traders anticipating two interest rate cuts next year, which could support gold prices [7] - The monthly chart shows that if gold prices stabilize this month, it could signal the end of bearish expectations from October and open up further bullish potential, targeting above $5000 [2][7] - Short-term price action indicates a potential for a pullback, but numerous moving averages provide support, suggesting that any adjustments could present buying opportunities [2][7] Group 3 - For gold, support levels are noted at $4430 or $4400, while resistance is at $4500 or $4530 [7] - In the oil market, WTI crude oil prices experienced a slight decline of 0.14%, closing at $58.47 per barrel, with trading activity subdued ahead of the holiday [3][8] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Russia, are contributing to supply disruption concerns, which may influence oil prices [8]

张尧浠：黄金短期或调整后再涨、原油前景仍维持偏弱 昨日周三，国际黄金震荡十字收线，有反弹见顶看空的预期，其走势在突破4500美元关键关口，创下4525.42美元的历史新高后，随后在圣诞 假期前获利了结回吐涨幅，未能持稳；这位短期走势增添了见顶回调的预期； 今日虽周四，由于美国圣诞节，国际黄金市场休市，国内金价开盘也预计波幅有限，震荡偏弱对待即可。不过鉴于目前已经突破上升趋势线 压力，故此，如有进一步走低，下方关注前高4380美元附近支撑也可继续看涨入。 另外，基本面上，特朗普表示不同意其观点的人永远不会成为美联储主席，这也稳定了后续美联储将会开启更加宽松的周期前景，交易员目 前预计美联储明年将降息两次。进一步助力金价，使其再度反弹转强收阳。同时，地缘政治因素也为市场带来不确定性。 所以，短期的回调获利了结走低，仍是为后市进一步看涨制造入场机会。 月线级别，金价目前连续反弹走强并刷新历史高点，如本月持稳收线，则暗示打消10月的长上影见顶形态的看空预期的同时，还将开启进一 步的牛市空间。可看涨5000美元上方。 日图；金价虽周三收取震荡见顶形态，暗示短期反弹有回落走低风险，但走势处于近期回升趋势之中，下方有众多均 ...

虽然特朗普没有宣战动作，但美国逐步收紧的施压还是让委内瑞拉的石油出口面临了严峻考验，有消息 称委内瑞拉国内主要原油储存设施及码头待泊油轮的装载量正快速上升，预计约10天后将达到最大储存 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 周四一早传出北京时间上午10点特朗普将对委内瑞拉宣战的消息吊足了市场胃口，大家花生瓜子都准备 好了，坐马扎子上兴奋的等着10点特朗普讲话，结果在一顿自我表扬过后，美国总统特朗普在整个国情 咨文演讲中一次也没有提到委内瑞拉，随着特朗普结束演讲，油价迅速回吐这个宣战消息带来的1美元 涨幅。 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | ोंग्री | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 模 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 428.60 | 0.07 | 39577 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 56.00 | 0.34 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 59.82 | 0.23 | 347989 | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a "comprehensive and thorough" blockade on sanctioned oil tankers from Venezuela, designating the Venezuelan government as a foreign terrorist organization [3][4] - The blockade is expected to impact the supply of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels of oil per day, potentially increasing oil prices by $2 to $3 per barrel, although global oil supply remains ample with a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day [3][4] - The international oil prices saw fluctuations, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.9% to $59.46 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 1% to $55.82 per barrel following the announcement [3] Group 2 - Trump claimed progress in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, stating that they are "closer than ever" to a peace agreement, which raised concerns about additional oil supply entering the market amidst an already oversupplied situation [5][6] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with Brent crude prices dropping nearly 3% to $58.92 per barrel, marking the lowest level since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2021 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that any peace agreement could significantly impact the oil market, potentially allowing around 170 million barrels of Russian oil to return to the market, although the likelihood of a swift agreement is considered low [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market is currently dominated by oversupply concerns, with Brent crude experiencing its longest consecutive monthly decline in 11 years, dropping nearly $20 per barrel [7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a global oil production increase of 3 million barrels per day by 2025, despite OPEC's control over production plans [7] - The IEA anticipates that by 2026, the average oversupply in international oil markets could reach 3.7 million barrels per day, exceeding levels seen during the pandemic [7]