Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market presents a complex situation with a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish factors. The copper price is expected to experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, ongoing geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment (neutral) [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79,535, with a basis of 285, showing a premium over futures (neutral) [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, copper inventories increased by 3,700 to 128,475 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 11,133 tons to 74,423 tons compared to the previous week (neutral) [3]. - **Market trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward (bearish) [3]. - **Main positions**: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing (bullish) [3]. - **Expectation**: With a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are the influencing logics, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply surplus of 0.11 million tons [23]. Other Information - **Spot**: Information on spot prices includes place, mid - price, price changes, and inventory types, but specific data is not filled in [7]. - **Exchange Inventory**: The report mentions exchange inventory, but no detailed analysis is provided [13]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17].

Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a "volatile" and "divergent" trend in the international and domestic commodity markets, characterized by mixed performance across different sectors [1][3][8] International Market Overview - The international commodity market exhibited a "weak energy, strong precious metals, differentiated metals, and moderate agricultural products" landscape, driven by macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical risks [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices fell to around $70 due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other countries, with the World Bank predicting a significant likelihood of declining energy prices in 2025 [1][2] - Gold prices reached record highs due to geopolitical tensions and high global debt, while copper prices rose over 10% due to supply disruptions and demand from the renewable energy sector [1][5] - The correlation between commodity futures and the US dollar index remained high, with limited softening of the dollar impacting market dynamics [1][5] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with the overall commodity index remaining stable by mid-year, despite significant fluctuations [3][4] - Energy and chemical sectors, along with black metals and the renewable energy supply chain, experienced downward price trends, influenced by increased coal production and reduced demand for thermal coal [4][5] - The demand for refined copper surged as major economies engaged in a "copper grabbing" trend, driven by a proactive inventory replenishment cycle [3][5] Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant price increases of 24.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while agricultural products showed mixed trends [5][6] - The black metal sector faced a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with steel prices declining over 15% and iron ore showing stronger performance due to increased consumption [6][7] - The lithium and silicon markets faced oversupply issues, leading to price declines, while the overall market dynamics indicated a need for improved trading strategies and risk management [6][7] Outlook for the Second Half - The second half of 2025 is expected to continue the "volatile" trend, with potential shifts in trade policies and geopolitical situations impacting commodity prices [7][8] - Analysts predict that the oil market may oscillate between surplus and production cuts, while "green metals" like copper are expected to maintain structural bullish trends [7][8] - The market may face supply surplus conditions, with price adjustments providing potential trading opportunities, particularly in copper and iron ore [7][8]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79,755 and a basis of -135, indicating a discount to the futures [3] - Inventory conditions are neutral. On July 24, copper inventory decreased by 50 to 124,775 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [3] - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, and the main positions are net long with a decrease in long positions [3] - The expected copper price will experience an oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3] Group 2: Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [4] Group 3: Supply - Demand Balance - In the Chinese annual supply - demand balance table, there was a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance is expected in 2025. For example, in 2024, production was 12.06 million tons, imports were 3.73 million tons, exports were 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 0.11 million tons [21][23] Group 4: Other Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]

Group 1: Report's Core Views - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis is neutral with the spot price at 79,875 and a basis of 285, showing a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories present a neutral situation. On July 23, the copper inventory decreased by 25 to 124,825 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long and increasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logic of recent market movements is influenced by domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - China's copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Group 2: China's Annual Copper Supply - Demand Balance Table | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 873 | 372 | 28 | 1217 | 1207 | 1 | | 2019 | 894 | 348 | 35 | 1207 | 1205 | | | 2020 | 930 | 452 | 21 | 1361 | 1291 | 70 | | 2021 | 998 | 344 | 27 | 1315 | 1361 | - 46 | | 2022 | 1028 | 367 | 23 | 1372 | 1380 | - 8 | | 2023 | 1144 | 351 | 28 | 1467 | 1477 | - 10 | | 2024 | 1206 | 373 | 46 | 1534 | 1523 | 11 | [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report assesses the copper market as having a neutral to slightly bullish bias based on various factors. The overall expectation is that copper prices will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals show that smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79620 with a basis of - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price, considered neutral [3]. - Inventory data on July 21 shows a decrease of 100 tons to 122075 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3094 tons to 84556 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending upwards, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The report mentions that domestic policy easing is a potential positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor [4]. Spot - The report provides information on spot prices including the location, middle price, and price changes, as well as inventory details such as type, total quantity, and quantity changes [7]. 期现价差 - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [8]. Exchange Inventory - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [12]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The report presents the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for copper from 2018 to 2024, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also neutral. The inventory has increased, with the copper inventory on July 18 rising by 25 to 122,175 tons and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, suggesting a bearish signal. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and stable manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June [3] - Basis: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,635 and a basis of 225, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures [3] - Inventory: Neutral, with an increase in copper inventory on July 18 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory last week [3] - Disk: Bearish, as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is trending downward [3] - Main positions: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [3] - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [23] Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a slight premium for spot over futures, and inventory data presents a mixed picture. The price is affected by factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a decline and adjustment in copper prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, showing stable manufacturing sentiment; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78040, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium for spot over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 16, copper inventory increased by 10525 tons to 121000 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3127 tons to 81462 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will decline and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Leverage Factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: Information on LME and SHFE inventories is presented, including inventory quantity and changes [6][12]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

铜: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80890，基差350，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：7月2日铜库存增2000至93250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价偏强运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美 ...

铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80160，基差-480，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：7月1日铜库存增650至91250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 ...