Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The LPG futures market showed a volatile decline this week mainly due to the fall in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+30). The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost oscillated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China), refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. Overall, the internal basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The outer market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors are still crucial and need continuous attention [1] Summary According to the Catalog Daily Data - From February 4 to February 10, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil changed. The daily changes on February 10 were -15, 0, 20, 2, 2, 4, 80, 0 respectively for these items. The paper import profit decreased by 24, and the main basis decreased by 57 [1] Daily Views - On Tuesday, the 3 - 4 month spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at -297 (+50) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 91 (+1). Warehouse receipts changed with Shanghai Yuchi +5 and Haiyu Petrochemical -175. LPG spot prices stabilized with a slight downward adjustment expected. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai Gaoqiao civil gas at 4150, with a basis of -122. Domestic spot prices were generally stable. The mainstream transaction price in East China was 4150 - 4800, and refineries shipped stably before the festival. Shandong civil gas prices continued to rise, with the mainstream price at 4400 - 4530. With the approaching Spring Festival, there was an expectation of a decline under increased supply. The mainstream price of ether - post carbon four rose, and the low - supply situation led to smooth sales [1] Weekly Views - The futures market oscillated down this week. The basis strengthened, the 3 - 4 month spread decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened. Freight rates rose, and the actual landed cost oscillated weakly. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity, ship arrivals, and refinery storage capacity decreased, while external sales increased. Chemical demand increased, and the PDH operating rate rose. The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. The internal basis is still weak, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival, the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the outer market is still tight in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on February 11, 2026, mainly including basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 are presented, such as the basis on February 10 being - 102.4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt and INE crude oil on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 are provided, along with their price ratios [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [9]. - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of rebar on February 10 being 158.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [19]. - Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of copper on February 10 being 10 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on February 10, 2026 [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of soybeans No.1 on February 10 being - 339 yuan/ton [38]. - Inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [38]. - Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on February 10, 2026 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of CSI 300 on February 10 being 25.91 [50]. - Inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. Corn spot in North China is strong, while that in Northeast China is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The corn spot still has room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited [2][4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. It is expected that the 03 starch contract on the disk will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Quotes**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates of multiple corn and corn starch futures contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2264, with a price increase of 7 and a price change rate of 0.31%, a trading volume of 274 with a decrease rate of 25.75%, and an open interest of 3448 with an increase rate of 0.17% [1]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices and price changes of corn and starch in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2135, with no price change; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2730, with no price change. The basis of corn and starch is also provided, such as the basis of C2601 is - 173 [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads and their price changes of corn inter - period, starch inter - period, and cross - variety are provided. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 is - 22, with a price change of - 5; the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 8, with a price change of 1 [1][3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn price has fallen back but is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, and the Northeast corn spot is stable. The supply in North China has decreased before the Spring Festival, and the spot is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The 03 contract is oscillating in a narrow range, and the spot basis is strengthening [2][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract is oscillating strongly following the corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [7]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [8]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [12][14][16][18][19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 2225 to 2210, the华南现货 price increased from 2223 to 2218, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2395. The西北折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2470. The进口利润 improved from -36 to -25, and the主力基差 improved from -45 to -30 [2]. Core View - The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, with Xingxing shutting down, Shenghong shutting down in February, and Luxi shutting down next week. Others also have plans to reduce production, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran normalizes. Currently, it is difficult for methanol prices to go up or down. The MTO profit caps the upper limit, and unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish outlook or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Group 3: Plastic Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the东北亚乙烯 price decreased from 695 to 690. The华北LL price decreased from 6680 to 6570, the华东LL price remained at 6875, and the华东LD price decreased from 8875 to 8650. The LL进口利润 decreased from 91 to -91, and the主力期货 price decreased from 6865 to 6721. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 43, and the仓单 remained at 9428 [2]. Core View - The futures market is oscillating, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with North China - East China at -80, a decrease of 30; South China - East China at 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil is oscillating, the oil - based profit is deteriorating, and the coal - based profit is also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industry is destocking, and the two major oil companies are destocking. Social inventory has increased this week, with HD inventory at a low level, LD inventory increasing, and LL inventory slightly higher than normal. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, there were few maintenance in January, and the full - density production has recovered. In the future, supply will recover. According to the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for 05 is neutral, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under relatively high pressure [2]. Group 4: PP Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6400, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 785. The华东PP price increased from 6610 to 6530, the华北PP price decreased from 6638 to 6588, and the山东粉料 price decreased from 6520 to 6500. The PP美金 price decreased from 825 to 835, and the出口利润 improved from -57 to -37. The主力期货 price decreased from 6730 to 6630, and the基差 remained at -140. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 42, and the仓单 decreased from 17223 to 17195 [3]. Core View - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225, with the export volume slightly decreasing month - on - month. The domestic regional price difference shows North China - East China at -70, an increase of 35; South China - East China at 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, the oil - based profit is stable, the PDH comprehensive profit is -970, an increase of 230, and the PHD operating rate is stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is flat month - on - month. Downstream purchases slightly at low prices during the festival. Upstream, the two major oil companies are destocking, the coal chemical industry is increasing inventory, and social inventory is increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is neutral. According to the balance sheet, the outlook for 05 and the following periods is slightly on the high side, and PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed for improvement [3]. Group 5: PVC Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the西北电石 price remained at 2550, the山东烧碱 price decreased from 622 to 617. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4860 to 4830, and the进口美金价 remained at 700. The出口利润 decreased from 268 to 186, and the基差 remained at -220 [4][5]. Core View - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 575, and that of calcium carbide - based PVC is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged, and the semi - coke price is 820, unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali is around -600. The ethylene - calcium carbide price is stable. Upstream, the operating rate this week is 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9, an increase of 0.4w, the PVC social inventory is 111.4w, an increase of 5w, with 106w in East China, an increase of 5w, and 5.4w in South China, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly high, and the export volume is flat month - on - month. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the seasonal operating rate is recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large, and the sustainability of future exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [5].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Summary Futures Data - On February 9, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,810, up 20 from the previous day and down 375 week - on - week [4] - The position was 27,608, up 331 from the previous day and down 9,713 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 174,314, down 30,875 from the previous day and down 103,781 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 32,270, up 100 from the previous day and up 4,380 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 4.28, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 190, down 70 from the previous day and up 175 week - on - week [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 255, down 270 from the previous day and down 60 week - on - week [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was - 15, up 40 from the previous day and up 45 week - on - week [4] - The RU - BR spread was 3435, up 145 from the previous day and up 440 week - on - week [4] - The NR - BR spread was 340, up 80 from the previous day and up 430 week - on - week [4] Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 12,500, down 200 from the previous day and down 300 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 12,600, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1700, up 75 from the previous day and up 75 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1850, up 25 from the previous day and up 25 week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 382, down 328 from the previous day and down 224 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 1294, down 756 from the previous day and down 842 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1297, up 318 from the previous day and up 392 week - on - week [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data Summary Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 10,475, up 125 from the previous day and down 75 week - on - week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,300, up 50 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR China was 1270, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The C4 extraction profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1780, up 100 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was 215, up 74 from the previous day and down 166 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was - 804, down 63 from the previous day and up 2090 week - on - week [4] Production Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 900, up 38 from the previous day and up 188 week - on - week [4] - The ABS production profit data after February 5 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was - 860, up 45 from the previous day and up 185 week - on - week [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地民营煤矿陆续进入停产放假状态，焦煤市场供应有明显收紧预期。随着下游焦企备货 基本结束以及部分民营煤矿逐步放假，市场供需两弱，焦企多放缓拉运，部分地方矿开始少量起库，部 分线上竞拍成交价格有所下调。但因煤矿目前产量有限，大部分矿方线下报价依旧坚挺；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1230，基差83；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存824万吨，港口库存273万吨，独立焦企库存1095万吨，总样本库存2192万吨，较上 周增加57万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：目前钢厂利润不佳，终端钢材成交低迷，钢厂对原料需求降低冬储补库也基本结束，下游采 购积极性减弱，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, as the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts increase, terminals gradually shut down, PTA supply - demand accumulates, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the pre - holiday PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range [5]. - For MEG, due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol will still maintain an upward trend at the beginning of this week, and the arrival of foreign ships will be decentralized in the second half of the month. There is a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure will moderately improve. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down, and the supply stability in Iran should be monitored. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly consolidate in a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - PTA: On Friday, the negotiation for February middle - upper was at a discount of 60 - 85 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was a transaction for late February at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5015 - 5135 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 72. The spot is 5090 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price. PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position has changed from short to long [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly from a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The spot market fluctuated widely. Today's spot transactions were at a discount of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and next - week's spot transactions were at a discount of 105 - 108 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It rebounded slightly due to plant news during the session, but the increase was limited. The spot is 3630 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position has decreased [8][9]. 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PX supply - demand situation from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, and balance with polyester [12]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering total production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. 3.4.3 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It details the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and various year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 (Summary of Influencing Factors) - **Likely Positive Factors**: The 700,000 - ton plant of Gulei Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from early March, expected to last until around the end of April [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA plant of Nengtou resumed operation last week [11]. 3.6价格相关 (Price - Related) - It includes historical price charts of PET bottle chips (market price, production margin, operating rate, inventory), PTA (month - to - month spread, basis), MEG (month - to - month spread, basis), and spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [16][17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][39]. 3.7库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) - It shows the historical inventory data of PTA (factory inventory), MEG (port inventory), PET chips (factory inventory), and polyester products (DTY, FDY, short - fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [42][43][44][46]. 3.8聚酯上下游开工 (Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates) - **Upstream**: It includes the historical operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [53][54][56]. - **Downstream**: It shows the historical capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of chemical fiber textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [57][58]. 3.9利润情况 (Profit Situation) - It presents the historical profit data of PTA (processing fee), MEG (production margins of different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament (DTY, POY, FDY production margins) [59][60][61][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains its fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction in domestic demand and production cuts by polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is currently operating at about 80% capacity. Affected by profits, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The duration of the conversion is undetermined. Driven by this news, speculative market demand has increased significantly. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 463.5 yuan/barrel on February 5, 2026, to 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6, 2026, with an increase of 1.90 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1775.7 yuan/ton to 1783.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.19 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It rose from 1.5272 to 1.5274, an increase of 0.0003 [3] - **CFR China PX**: The price increased from 892 to 898, an increase of 6 [3] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Remained unchanged at 294 [3] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: Rose from 5144 yuan/ton to 5166 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Price**: Decreased from 5100 yuan/ton to 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 415.0 yuan/ton to 412.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Decreased from 459.0 yuan/ton to 448.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: Increased from (77) to (72), an increase of 5.0 [3] - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 103,568 [3] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: Decreased from 3745 yuan/ton to 3743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (184.58) to (195.44), a decrease of 10.9 [3] - **MEG Domestic Market Price**: Decreased from 3649 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: Increased from - 103 to - 102, an increase of 1.0 [3] - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 85.92% [3] - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 76.73% [3] - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 61.67% [3] - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 78.66% to 78.14%, a decrease of 0.52% [3] - **POY150D/48F Price**: Increased from 7000 to 7005, an increase of 5.0 [3] - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from 167 to 191, an increase of 24.0 [3] - **FDY150D/96F Price**: Remained unchanged at 7240 [3] - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (93) to (74), an increase of 19.0 [3] - **DTY150D/48F Price**: Remained unchanged at 8140 [3] - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from 107 to 126, an increase of 19.0 [3] - **Filament Sales Volume Ratio**: Decreased from 22% to 12%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber Price**: Increased from 6525 to 6535, an increase of 10 [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 42 to 71, an increase of 29.0 [3] - **Staple Fiber Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 52% to 56%, an increase of 4% [3] - **Semi - Bright Chip Price**: Decreased from 5865 to 5860, a decrease of 5.0 [3] - **Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (68) to (54), an increase of 14.0 [3] - **Chip Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 35% to 64%, an increase of 29% [3] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th - A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bullish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Tin: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] - For most metals, there are risks of price adjustments during the Spring Festival period, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and choose appropriate investment strategies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions, and the price fluctuated more widely at the MA40 moving - average line. The lowest price of the main copper contract dropped to 98,000 yuan. Mid - and downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices. SMM spot copper was reported at 99,605 yuan, with a premium of 40 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. Next week, with margin adjustments, the positions of Shanghai copper may continue to fall below 550,000 lots. More attention should be paid to the inter - period reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, there is a high risk of continuous inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and investors should patiently wait to buy at low prices [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak shock today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 150 yuan, - 260 yuan, and - 150 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded slightly to a positive value. In the short term, the macro - sentiment fluctuates, and the fundamental feedback is weak. The inventory performance before the Spring Festival is far worse than in previous years, and there is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Casting aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. Driven by the macro - situation and with aluminum prices at a high level, casting aluminum alloy has difficulty rising in tandem, and its seasonal price difference with Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years. The operating production capacity of domestic alumina may decline, and the number of overhauls has increased, but there has been no large - scale long - term production reduction. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus. With the decline in ore prices, the cash - cost support for alumina is below 2,500 yuan. The low basis provides limited impetus for the rebound of the futures price. Under the policy expectation, the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2] Zinc - Shanghai zinc rebounded but was pressured and fell back at the 5 - day moving - average line. The moving - averages formed a death - cross, and the short - term downward trend continues. The nearest support below is at 24,000 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment is gradually being released, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds is strong. Before the macro - expectation improves significantly, it is difficult to see a large - scale return of long - positions. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate and decline. The expectation of oversupply in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The downstream end - users of stainless steel became more cautious in purchasing due to high - price aversion. The actual transactions were weak, and the transactions were mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support the price, which supported the strong operation of the spot market. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced its positions and oscillated to the MA60 moving - average line, waiting for the social inventory data this week. The restocking next week will also be coming to an end. The recovery of the domestic upstream tin concentrate supply has affected the processing - fee quotation. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of short - positions against the MA5 moving - average line. The tin price may adjust to the MA60 daily line or even the weekly moving - average system [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock. The exchange policy affected the market participation. The continuously high price of lithium carbonate may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot market and long - position speculative positions are in the mainstream, and the position structure is fragile. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the market has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, and smelters are also showing signs of unsalable products. Traders' confidence in domestic products has wavered. The futures price of lithium carbonate has weakened, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon dropped significantly today, mainly affected by the news from the organic silicon industry. The entire organic silicon industry will implement a 30% emission - reduction target. If this target is implemented in the first quarter, based on the average monthly DMC production of 200,000 tons, it may affect the industry supply by 180,000 tons, corresponding to a reduction of about 90,000 tons in the demand for industrial silicon. Coupled with the significant decline in the polysilicon production schedule, the inventory of industrial silicon is showing a differentiated trend. The factory inventory in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, while the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons. The overall market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures reduced positions and closed down. At the industry level, the association expects the new domestic installed capacity in 2026 to be 180 - 240GW, which is in line with market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the anti - involution orientation of the industry. Currently, the industry is still in a new round of in - depth adjustment period, and the problem of supply - demand mismatch has not been resolved. Enterprises are still under continuous operating pressure. The weekly inventory performance of the industrial chain is differentiated. The component inventory is 24.7GW, a decrease of 1.4GW compared with the previous week. The inventories of battery cells, silicon wafers, and polysilicon factories have all increased slightly. In the spot market, the price of N - type re - feed materials remained stable at 53,600 yuan/ton. After the emotional correction in the futures market, it is expected to maintain a shock [10]