图为马来西亚棕榈油月度产量 图 为马来西亚棕榈油月度库存 东南亚主产区强降雨影响较为有限 在11月下旬至12月上旬，棕榈油价格出现一波反弹行情，因为11月中旬开始东南亚地区受拉尼娜现象影响出现持续强 降雨并局部爆发洪水。最初强降雨主要出现在中南半岛和菲律宾，随后逐渐南移，11月下旬开始马来半岛和苏门答腊 岛北部降雨量增加并影响到部分油棕树种植园林，从而增强市场看涨预期。 转自：期货日报 自10月上旬见顶回落以来，棕榈油本轮震荡下跌趋势已经持续超过两个月。其间有两波阶段性的反弹，但未能扭转总 体的下跌趋势。 马来西亚季节性减产期晚于往年 棕榈油产量存在明显的季节性特征，主要跟东南亚主产区的旱季和雨季有关。旱季开工率高，产量也高；雨季开工率 低，产量也低。一般来说，每年的3、4月随着旱季的开始，产量逐渐增加，直至8—9月旱季结束，然后雨季开始，产 量逐渐减少，直至次年的2月雨季结束。 今年旱季较往年有所延长，到10月马来西亚棕榈油仍然保持增产态势。马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）月报显示，10月 马来西亚棕榈油产量为204万吨，环比增加11%，同比增加14%；11月马来西亚棕榈油产量才开始回落至193.5万吨， 环比 ...

2026年这个"红马年"，可能比我们想象的更不一般。 最近，一句老话"太岁丙午年，春夏多洪水"被反复提起，很多人觉得这只是古人的玄学。 但当我翻看历史记录和最新的气候预测时，发现事情没那么简单。 上一个丙午年1966年，长江流域发生了大洪水；再上一个1906年，南方遭遇了特大洪水袭击。 根据国家气候中心等机构的研判，2024-2026年正处在拉尼娜等气候现象的活跃期，全球变暖也在持续加剧极端天气。 古人说的"火旺至极而生水"，似乎正与现代科学观测到的"极端高温后易发强对流暴雨"的规律隐隐呼应。 2026年，我们或许真得对"水"多留个心眼。 2026年是农历丙午年。 在干支纪年法中，"丙"和"午"在五行中都属火，火色为红，所以也叫"红马年"或"赤马年"。 这种"双火叠加"的年份，在古人长期的观察中，往往与异常气候挂钩。 流传下来的《地母经》里明确写着："太岁丙午年，春夏多洪水。 种植宜高地，低源遭水冲。 " 另一部《枕中记》也有几乎一样的描述："丙午水滔滔，种植最宜高。 低田遭水没，天虫口如刀。 "这些古籍不约而同地指向同一个预警：春夏季节雨水可 能格外多，低洼地区容易遭殃。 回顾历史上的丙午年，这种关联并非毫 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. The price of US soybeans is still restricted by the global supply, while Brazil's soybean production is at a record - high level and Argentina's supply is sufficient. The implementation of the soybean purchase agreement will be a key factor affecting US soybean exports and price structure. The La Niña phenomenon may affect South American yields, and weather changes need to be monitored [2][77]. - China's soybean imports are expected to reach a new high in 2026, with a "low - first - then - high" supply rhythm. The soybean meal market is expected to continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the upward price space is limited [2][77]. - The pig production capacity is slowly being reduced. In the first half of 2026, the supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The speed of production capacity reduction will be the key to the pig price trend in the second half of the year [2][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **2025 Bean Market**: The 2025 bean market was mainly affected by trade relations, domestic soybean arrival rhythm, US soybean producing area weather and export expectations. The prices of domestic and foreign markets showed significant differentiation in March, and the price of US soybeans rebounded at the end of October, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [4]. - **Q1**: The domestic and foreign markets showed an initial differentiation, with the domestic market being stronger. The USDA report was bullish at the beginning of the year, and the price of US soybeans rebounded. The domestic soybean meal price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. The domestic and foreign markets began to diverge at the end of March [6]. - **Q2**: The supply pressure became prominent, and the price was under pressure. The domestic supply pressure increased significantly after May, and the soybean meal price lacked upward momentum. The US soybean market was supported by weather speculation and other factors [6]. - **Q3**: The US soybeans fluctuated in a range, and the domestic market was driven by costs. The price of US soybeans fell below 1000 cents in July and rebounded in August. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly boosted by import costs [6]. - **Q4**: Driven by trade sentiment, the price bottomed out and rebounded. The improvement of Sino - US relations significantly boosted the export expectations of US soybeans, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [7]. - **2025 Pig Market**: The 2025 pig market was affected by factors such as over - capacity, policy expectations, second - fattening sentiment and slaughter rhythm, showing a pattern of fluctuating downward and weak rebound [8][10]. - **Q1**: The demand was strong first and then weak, and the pig price fluctuated weakly. The pig price was relatively strong before the Spring Festival and then fell. The second - fattening and barring sentiment led to a rebound in the pig price in late February [11]. - **Q2**: The policy guidance began to appear, and the price first rose and then fell. The pig price rebounded in April and then fell in May. The second - fattening replenishment enthusiasm increased in June, and the pig price stopped falling and stabilized [11]. - **Q3**: The supply - demand imbalance intensified, and the spot and futures markets diverged. The pig price soared in July due to supply reduction and policy factors, and then fluctuated and fell in August. The futures market moved down in September [12]. - **Q4**: After the National Day, the demand entered the off - season, and the pig price fell sharply and then rebounded slightly. The futures market was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [12]. 2. International Soybean Market Supply Analysis - **USDA Report**: The global soybean supply continues to be in a loose pattern. In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 423 million tons, with the ending inventory increasing by 4 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - **US**: The 2025/26 US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is 6.74%, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been tightening in recent years. The short - term price has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited by the global supply [17][18]. - **South America**: The production data of South American soybeans remains unchanged in December. Brazil's production is expected to be 175 million tons, and Argentina's is 48.5 million tons. The overall supply remains loose, but South American weather is still a key concern [19]. - **Brazil**: The soybean sowing is coming to an end, and the production is expected to reach a record high. Multiple institutions predict that the 2025/26 production will be between 175 - 178 million tons. In 2025, the export volume reached a record high, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2026. The La Niña phenomenon may pose a threat to the yield [20][21]. - **Argentina**: The sowing progress is accelerating. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons. The export tax has been reduced, and the export is expected to reach a six - year high [23][24]. - **US**: The soybean harvest is basically over, and the production is at a historical high. The weekly export volume has decreased month - on - month, but the cumulative year - on - year increase has continued to expand. The short - term export demand is still strong. The medium - and long - term export situation needs to pay attention to the impact of trade relations on trade flows. The soybean crushing volume in October set a new record, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term [27][28]. - **Trade Relations**: The Sino - US trade relations have entered a new stage of "transaction - based management". The stable trade of soybeans has become the balance of bilateral relations, but the structural contradictions have not been resolved. In 2026, trade relations are no longer the main trading line, but short - term disturbances still exist [31][34]. - **La Niña Disturbance**: The probability of a weak La Niña phenomenon in the next three months is 55%. The main impact is on South America, with the risk of reduced production in Argentina being the greatest. The actual weather conditions in South America and the intensity and duration of La Niña are the focus of the market [35][36]. 3. Domestic Soybean Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, China's soybean imports are expected to exceed 110 million tons for the first time, showing a "stable - first - then - high" pattern. In 2026, imports are expected to continue to grow, with a "low - first - then - high" rhythm, and the import value growth rate may continue to be lower than the import volume growth rate. The import scale of US soybeans depends on Sino - US trade relations [40][42]. - **Soybean Crushing**: In 2025, the national soybean crushing volume reached a historical high, showing a "low - first - then - high" pattern. The crushing profit showed a "high - first - then - low" and fluctuating downward trend. In 2026, the crushing industry is expected to continue to operate at a high level, but the growth rate will slow down, with a "low - first - then - high" seasonal rhythm [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: In 2025, the soybean meal inventory showed a "tight - first - then - loose" pattern. In 2026, if the arrival is uniform, the soybean meal supply will be slightly looser than in 2025. The inventory may bottom out in March - April and then gradually recover [46]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated greatly. The overall demand for the breeding industry is stable, and the proportion of soybean meal added in feed continues to decline. In 2026, the demand for soybean meal will show the characteristics of "stable total demand and decreasing addition ratio", and the demand growth rate is expected to be lower than the feed production growth rate [48][52]. 4. Pig Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: - **Price Decline**: Since 2025, the domestic pig price has been in a downward trend, and the prices of binary sows and piglets have also declined to varying degrees [56]. - **Capacity Regulation**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has strengthened the regulation of pig production capacity, and listed companies in the pig - breeding industry have actively responded. As of October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows has declined to 39.9 million, and the production capacity reduction has accelerated [57][60]. - **Low Import Willingness**: The domestic pork supply is sufficient, and the import willingness of downstream purchasers and importers is weak. The pork import volume in October 2025 reached the lowest level of the year [66]. - **Profit Loss**: In 2025, the pig - breeding profit changed from profit to loss. In the first half of 2026, the pig supply is expected to be high, and the profit may continue to be under pressure. If the production capacity is significantly reduced in the second half of the year, the price and profit may recover [68]. - **Weakening of Second - Fattening Impact**: In the second half of 2025, policies restricted second - fattening, and leading enterprises responded actively. The influence of second - fattening on pig prices has weakened significantly, and the pig price trend is expected to be smoother in 2026 [69][72]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the pig demand showed typical seasonal characteristics. In the second half of the year, the terminal consumption recovered strongly, but the upward space of pig prices was restricted by the supply. In 2026, the pig market will continue the complex supply - demand game, and the short - term price may face a callback risk, while the medium - and long - term consumption growth space is limited [74][75]. 5. Summary and Outlook - **Soybean Meal**: With a loose global supply and accumulating domestic inventory, the overall upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to marginal variables such as South American weather speculation and the implementation of the Sino - US procurement agreement [77][78]. - **Pigs**: In the first half of the year, the supply pressure remains high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by the seasonal consumption recovery, and the process of production capacity reduction and the effect of policy guidance should be closely monitored [78].

南非气象局警告说，降雨可能对水资源和农业产生积极影响，但局部地区发生洪涝的风险也会增 加。 拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。（完） 新华社开普敦12月19日电（记者王晓梅 王雷）南非气象局18日说，受弱拉尼娜现象影响，预计南 非部分地区未来几个月降雨量将偏高，发生洪涝灾害的风险上升。 南非气象局18日发布了涵盖2025年12月至2026年4月整个夏季的最新季节性气候预测报告。报告 称，南非正进入弱拉尼娜状态，全国各地降雨量和气温都将受到影响。气候模型预测结果显示，南非中 部和东部的夏季降雨量将高于正常水平。此外，预计南非大部分地区这个夏季的最低气温将高于正常水 平。 ...

南非气象局18日说，受弱拉尼娜现象影响，预计南非部分地区未来几个月降雨量将偏高，发生洪涝灾害 的风险上升。 南非气象局18日发布了涵盖2025年12月至2026年4月整个夏季的最新季节性气候预测报 告。报告称，南非正进入弱拉尼娜状态，全国各地降雨量和气温都将受到影响。气候模型预测结果显 示，南非中部和东部的夏季降雨量将高于正常水平。此外，预计南非大部分地区这个夏季的最低气温将 高于正常水平。 南非气象局警告说，降雨可能对水资源和农业产生积极影响，但局部地区发生洪涝的 风险也会增加。 拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。(新华社) ...

农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年度报告 2026 ANNUAL REPORT 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年报：国际环境多变，豆系走势分化 摘要： 供应方面：国内种植结构调整接近完成，大豆种植面积逐渐趋稳，大 豆单产水平增长放缓，大豆产量持续增加。新豆销售较快，但品质分化， 东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。进口大豆持续创纪录，尽管此前中美贸易摩擦，进 口美豆暂停，但南美取代替位，贸易和谈后进口美豆或恢复常态。从全球 供需来看，美豆播种面积相对稳定，新季度产量下降，出口下降，但其压 榨增加，期末库存止升转降；南美巴西大豆产量及出口均持续增加，阿根 廷降税等措施促进其大豆出口，弱拉尼娜预期对南美新季大豆产量预计影 响有限；全球大豆期末库存仍在高位。 需求方面：国内油厂大豆库存充足，且明年 1 季度美豆补充，油厂开 机率高于去年，豆粕产量高，豆粕库存较高；压榨需求或好于预期。下游 畜禽高存栏支撑豆粕饲料需求，但养殖长期大幅亏损或加速后期去产能步 伐，且政策上饲料豆粕使用减量、替代，饲企对豆粕需求并不迫切。 技术方面：豆系均处于熊市底部，但豆一有企稳迹象，豆粕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current La Niña phenomenon in China, its implications for winter weather, and the potential for drought conditions in the winter and spring seasons [1][5][7]. Group 1: La Niña Status and Events - La Niña is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [1][3]. - The La Niña state is defined by the Niño 3.4 index falling below -0.5°C for at least five consecutive months to be classified as a La Niña event [3]. - La Niña phenomena occur every two to seven years, with increased frequency in recent years attributed to complex global warming mechanisms [3]. Group 2: Weather Predictions and Impacts - The current La Niña state is expected to lead to reduced precipitation in southern China, particularly in December, with a higher likelihood of cold air events causing temperature fluctuations [5][8]. - Experts predict a low probability of a double La Niña event this winter, which refers to consecutive winters experiencing La Niña conditions [3][7]. - The article highlights that while La Niña can influence winter temperatures, it is not the sole determinant, as other factors like Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation also play significant roles [8][9]. Group 3: Specific Regional Impacts - The likelihood of winter drought conditions in East and South China is noted, with potential for significant impacts on agriculture and water resources [7][10]. - In regions like Guizhou, which frequently experiences freezing rain, the probability of widespread low-temperature rain and snow events this winter is expected to be relatively low [12]. - The article emphasizes the need for preparedness against low-temperature and freezing rain disasters, particularly in high-risk areas [10].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also intensifying, increasing the probability of rainfall in Indonesia and its surrounding areas [1]. - High - latitude rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the dry season, which will affect rubber production [1]. - Weather conditions such as rainfall and temperature in various rubber - producing areas around the world will impact the progress of rubber tapping and production. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - The Nino3.4 index is - 0.7 (- 0.2), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is + 2.7. The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and it may last until December 2025 to February 2026 and transition to ENSO neutral from January to March 2026 [1]. - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is - 0.63 (- 0.17), indicating a strengthening of the IOD and an increased probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be in Phase 1, with little effect on the growth of rain clouds in Indonesia, and it will develop towards the East Indian Ocean by the end of the month [1]. - **China's Producing Areas** - Yunnan: Affected by cooling, it is approaching full suspension of tapping. Output in the northern part will be limited by low - temperature, and the southern part will have a slight temperature increase but limited output [1]. - Hainan: The temperature is currently suitable. There has been sporadic rainfall recently, and the dry content of glue has decreased. Tapping is expected to gradually stop in late December. There will be less rain and a temperature increase in the next week, followed by another temperature drop [1]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas** - Thailand: The north and northeast have less rain, and the south has significantly less rain in December compared to November, with little impact on raw material output. The north and northeast will cool down at the end of the month, and some areas may gradually stop tapping [2]. - Vietnam: Precipitation in November was higher than average. The south will have less rain, and the central - east will be slightly affected by showers [2]. - Cambodia: Precipitation in November increased year - on - year. There will be less rain in the future, but the temperature drop at the end of the month may reduce output [2]. - Myanmar: There will be less rain in the future, and the surface soil moisture in the south is low. There will be a significant temperature drop at the end of the month [2]. - Laos: It is currently in the peak - production period. Less rain and a temperature drop will slightly affect output [2]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas** - Indonesia: The La Nina phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole are strengthening, increasing the probability of rainfall. The first half - week will have mostly cloudy to light rain, with heavy rain possible in some areas, and the rain will weaken in the second half - week. The impact of rainfall on tapping in December is moderate, weaker than in November [4]. - Malaysia: The Malay Peninsula is in the peak of the rainy season. Rainfall from November to early December affected tapping, and the rain has weakened in the past two weeks but still has an impact [4]. - Philippines: Rainfall in November was slightly higher than the historical average. Rainfall in December decreased, and the temperature is suitable for tapping [4]. - **South Asian Producing Areas** - India: There was intermittent rain in southern Kerala last week due to a tropical depression. Areas in the southwest and northeast had little rain. Low temperatures in Maharashtra and the northeast may lead to a gradual stop of tapping [5]. - Sri Lanka: Floods have receded, and production is recovering [5]. - **West African Producing Areas** - Cote d'Ivoire: It is gradually emerging from the secondary rainy season. Cumulative precipitation in November increased year - on - year and is approaching normal levels. There were local showers in the past week, slightly affecting tapping [5]. 3.2 Summary of Rainfall Data in Producing Areas - The report provides monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for the current and next weeks in major natural rubber producing areas. For example, in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, the monthly cumulative precipitation is 0.1 mm, a year - on - year decrease of 98% [6]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - There is a tropical depression disturbance in western Indonesia, which may increase rainfall in Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula [8]. - The weather in southern Thailand has improved, and the impact of floods has subsided. Short - term heavy rainfall in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra in Indonesia requires attention to secondary disaster risks [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - The report presents precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomalies, temperature comparisons, and average wind speed for each major rubber - producing area [11][17][38]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - About 80% of the world's natural rubber is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam. Thailand accounts for about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. Cote d'Ivoire accounts for over 10% of the output [198]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber Trees and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are sensitive to weather and disasters before maturity, which can affect the tree's latex - producing ability. Short - term supply is affected by weather, and long - term supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure [207]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - Global natural rubber supply is seasonal, with a high - production period from September to November and a low - production period from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude, with higher - latitude areas having earlier tapping starts and shorter tapping periods [209].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China has entered a La Niña state as of October 2023, which may have significant impacts on the climate and weather patterns in the region [1][3][6] - La Niña is characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with the NINO 3.4 index dropping below -0.5 degrees Celsius [3][4] - The occurrence of La Niña is not equivalent to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is defined by the NINO 3.4 index remaining below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months [3][5] Group 2 - La Niña phenomena typically occur every two to seven years, but their frequency has increased in recent years, which is closely related to the complexities of global warming [4] - The current La Niña state may lead to reduced precipitation in southern China during the winter, with a higher probability of drought conditions in the winter and spring [6][7] - The article notes that while La Niña can influence winter temperatures, it is not the sole determinant, as other factors such as Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation also play significant roles [6][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current La Niña phenomenon, which indicates a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, with China entering a La Niña state as of October this year [2][3]. - La Niña status is defined by the NINO 3.4 index falling below -0.5°C, while a La Niña event requires this condition to persist for five consecutive months [5][6]. - The article highlights that La Niña can lead to increased climate anomalies, with historical occurrences of "double La Niña" events noted in 2000, 2011, and 2021, which have been linked to extreme weather patterns [7]. Group 2 - Experts predict that while a double La Niña event is unlikely this winter, the ongoing La Niña status may still influence China's climate, particularly with a higher probability of reduced precipitation in southern regions [8][10]. - The article mentions that La Niña is often associated with colder winters, but this year may not follow that trend, as the overall temperature is expected to be close to or slightly above normal, with significant fluctuations [11]. - The potential for winter-spring droughts in eastern and southern China is highlighted, with predictions of increased cold air activity leading to temperature swings [10][11].