Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market decline due to Argentina's tax - exemption policy on soybeans is followed by a reasonable trading strategy of buying soybean meal and soybean oil on dips [1] - Argentina's soybean and its downstream products have limited additional export potential, and it's difficult to fundamentally impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern [4] - The tax - exemption policy can improve the domestic soybean supply gap before the Spring Festival, but the import cost has limited room to decline, and it's hard to support a continuous drop in soybean prices [9] - With the current La Nina climate, the weather risk in South American soybean - producing areas will influence soybean prices, and short - term negative factors have been partially released, suggesting a dip - buying strategy [14][25] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Argentina's Potential Soybean Export Capacity is Limited - From the supply - demand fundamentals, Argentina's additional export space for soybeans and downstream products is narrow. The 2024/25 annual carry - over stock is 675 million tons, the 2025/26 expected carry - over stock is 695 million tons, and the tax - exemption policy is estimated to stimulate an additional export of 300 - 400 million tons [4][5] - The high inflation rate (208.09% in 2024) and the continuous depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar, along with government policies, make market players prefer to hold physical goods rather than release stocks [5] - The export elasticity of Argentine soybean meal and soybean oil is lower, with an estimated additional export of about 100 million tons of soybean meal and 25 million tons of soybean oil [5] 2. Domestic Soybean Purchase Costs are Unlikely to Drop Significantly 2.1 The Domestic Soybean Supply Gap Before the Spring Festival is Expected to Improve - By the report date, the total pre - Spring Festival 2026 soybean purchase demand is about 3300 million tons, with about 2030 million tons already purchased and 1260 million tons remaining. If Argentina's additional 300 - 400 million tons of soybeans enter the domestic market, the gap will be alleviated [10][11] 2.2 The Decline in Imported Soybean Costs is Constrained by Multiple Factors - Based on "pessimistic - neutral - optimistic" scenarios, the import cost of Argentine soybeans ranges from 3459 yuan/ton to 3898 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans from 3693 yuan/ton to 4133 yuan/ton, and US soybeans (assuming a 3% import tariff) from 3635 yuan/ton to 4015 yuan/ton, indicating limited decline space [12][13] 3. Weather - Driven Market is Approaching - As of September 22, 2025, the NINO3.4 index was - 0.846, below the La Nina threshold of - 0.5 [15] - La Nina affects the atmospheric circulation, increasing precipitation in some areas and causing high - temperature and low - rainfall conditions in others, which impacts soybean yields [16] - Since 2008, there have been 4 La Nina events affecting soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil, with the 2022 - 2023 event having the greatest impact on soybeans [21] 4. Dip - Buying Trading Strategy - After considering supply - demand, cost, and weather factors, it is recommended to buy soybean meal and soybean oil on dips [25] - For the M2601 soybean meal contract, the entry range is 2900 - 2950 yuan/ton, the stop - loss price is around 2830 yuan/ton, and the target profit is around 3230 yuan/ton, with a profit - loss ratio of about 3:1 [26] - For the 2601 soybean oil contract, the entry range is 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton, the stop - loss price is around 7880 yuan/ton, and the target profit is around 8680 yuan/ton, with a profit - loss ratio of about 3:1 [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bearish, medium - term range - bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic supply pressure is significant, with ship purchases covering until December, and soybean inventory at a record high. The cost side lacks clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the general direction of selling on rallies. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [9][10][11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans fluctuated this week, and the global soybean supply pressure has not significantly eased. Brazil is continuously expanding its planting area, and there is no strong growth engine on the demand side. The Brazilian soybean premium was slightly lowered this week. The market expected that the China - US negotiations this week might involve US soybean imports, but the announcement of the leaders' call on Friday night did not mention it. US soybeans fell more than 2% in after - hours trading. Looking ahead, the valuation of US soybeans is relatively low. If China - US soybean trade returns to normal, the Brazilian soybean price may still have a slight downward space compared to previous years. The rebound of US soybeans and the decline of the Brazilian premium may offset each other. Coupled with the expected decline in US soybean yield and trading related to the Brazilian planting season, the space for further decline in China's soybean import cost is limited, but the upside is also restricted by the lack of a significant decline in supply [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: Domestic soybean meal spot was weak this week, with stable basis, and the futures market declined following the cost. Domestic trading was average, and pick - up was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.42 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 16, institutional statistics showed that the ship purchases were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.20 million tons in August, 8.76 million tons in September, and 8.26 million tons in October. The current ship - purchase progress indicates that China's soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the current large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the market may have stocked up in advance for the Double Festival. The domestic soybean - based basis has certain support under the strong pick - up. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will first see a decline in crushing profit due to the expectation of US soybean imports, then the soybean import cost will stabilize after the trading of Brazilian price cuts and US soybean rebounds ends, and then it will rebound from the bottom during the South American planting season, and the subsequent market will depend on the development of the South American planting season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. The current domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may lead to a short - term decline. In the medium term, the global soybean supply surplus sets the direction of selling on rallies, but due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will mainly move in a range [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong; the basis of the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal; the price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal; and the fund positions of US soybeans and soybean meal, all sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [17][20][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 to 2025, sourced from NASS and the research center of WK Futures [30] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report also presents charts related to precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and the climate in South America, sourced from NOAA and the research center of WK Futures [33][35] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows charts of the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of signed US soybean export contracts in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [49] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: The report shows charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China, sourced from customs, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [52] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: The report shows charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [54] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills, sourced from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [58] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of major coastal oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of major coastal oil mills, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [61] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: The report shows charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast, sourced from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [63] 3.5 Demand Side - The report shows charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal, as well as the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and white - feather broilers, sourced from MYSTEEL, WIND, and the research center of WK Futures [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Q3's market was a battle between weak reality and expectations of tariff cuts. Despite China halting purchases of US soybeans, the US soybean futures had some support due to strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. - It is advisable to wait for the negative factors to subside and then consider going long, while keeping an eye on the progress of South American crops and Sino-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 25年Q3行情回顾 - In July, due to cost support and concerns about long - term supply, the price once soared. Later in the month, it dropped due to Sino - US consultations and news of Argentine soybean meal imports. In August, USDA unexpectedly reduced the US soybean planting area, which provided bullish support, but strong harvest expectations and weak exports restricted the upward space. In September, the USDA report was bearish, but the US soybean futures had support from strong domestic demand and optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations [3][6]. 供给"微"增 - In the 25/26 season, global oilseed production is expected to be 690 million tons (up 1.39% year - on - year), with soybean production at 425 million tons (up 0.39% year - on - year), rapeseed at 90.96 million tons (up 6.1% year - on - year), and sunflower seeds at 55.1 million tons (up 5.05% year - on - year). The soybean stock - to - consumption ratio is expected to drop to 20.27% [26]. - In the September report, the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season was increased to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was decreased to 53.5 bushels per acre, but it was higher than expected. The crush was increased to 2.555 billion bushels, and exports were decreased to 1.685 billion bushels, with ending stocks increased to 300 million bushels [32]. 成本支撑 - In Q3, sea freight was relatively stable. As of September 17, the sea freight from Brazil, Argentina, US Gulf, and US West to China was $36/ton, $43/ton, $56/ton, and $29/ton respectively [60]. - Brazilian farmers' and port prices rose, and farmers' profits recovered significantly. In Q3, farmers' received prices continued to rise, and domestic Brazilian growers' profits were significantly better than traders' [63][66]. 南北美大豆出口分化 - In August, Brazil exported about 7.28 million tons of soybeans, and the export plan for September was 7.06 million tons. Since May, China has basically stopped buying US soybeans. In the 24/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports were 52.11 million tons [69][76]. 天气展望 - The current Niño - 3.4 index is - 0.2°C, and the atmospheric model shows a neutral state. Although the possibility of La Niña increases in the fourth quarter, the probability is still lower than that of a neutral state. La Niña usually affects the winter in the Northern Hemisphere and the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, mainly causing drought in southern Brazil and Argentina [95]. 饲料产量环同比增加,终端养殖产能过剩 - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons (up 2.3% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year). As of August 2025, the laying hen inventory was 1.317 billion, and in January 2025, the white - feather broiler grandparent stock was 2.1457 million sets, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [99][103]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, exceeding the normal level set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs by about 3.6%. The industry's over - capacity situation has not been fundamentally reversed, and it still faces severe profit - loss pressure [111]. 平衡表推演 - The report provides a detailed balance sheet of soybean meal from January 2025 to March 2026, including data on beginning inventory, production, imports, total supply, exports, demand, total demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, stock - to - consumption ratio, and surplus [120].

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 18, cup rubber is priced at 51.05 THB/kg (down 0.60), while latex is at 56.30 THB/kg (up 0.10) [1] - The purchase price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,600 CNY/ton (down 200), and for Hainan private rubber water, it is 16,000 CNY/ton (down 100) [1] - Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard is priced at 1,830 USD/ton (down 30), and Thai mixed rubber is at 14,750 CNY/ton (down 250) [1] Tire Production and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month, and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month, and up 9.33 days year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for all-steel tire sample enterprises is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month, and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Outlook - Supply disruptions due to rainy seasons and typhoons are expected to limit further increases in raw material prices, with cost support weakening [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, leading to potential flexible production control by some companies [2] - The market sentiment is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, with short-term rubber prices likely to fluctuate weakly within the range of 15,000 to 16,500 CNY [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - **Hogs**: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - **Cotton**: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - **Sugar**: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - **Offset Paper**: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - **Protein Meals**: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - **Hogs**: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - **Offset Paper**: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for rubber is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for 20 rubber futures opening at 12,550.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by seasonal factors, with expectations for improved terminal consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, despite the current weak performance of rubber prices [1] - Supply constraints are noted due to adverse weather conditions affecting rubber tapping operations in both domestic and overseas production areas, leading to a tightening of raw material availability [2] Group 2 - The macro market sentiment is recovering, and supply disruptions are continuing, leading to a stabilization and potential upward movement in rubber prices [2] - Inventory levels for natural rubber are decreasing, particularly in the Qingdao region, indicating a tightening supply situation [2] - The return of the La Niña phenomenon may impact global weather patterns, although many regions are still expected to experience above-average temperatures [2]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, 2025, the A-share market showed overall positive trends, with increases in major indices and trading volume. Futures markets for various commodities had different performances influenced by factors such as supply and demand, production changes, and macro - economic expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to shift from a supply shortage in 2024/25 to a slight surplus in 2025/26, with increased production and consumption [5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.46, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% to 3147.35. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2376.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 35.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02, up 27.69 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 17, the coke weighted index closed at 1746.9, up 7.0; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1239.8 yuan, up 1.8. A coal mine in Linfen Hongtong stopped production on September 16 for about 20 days, affecting about 140,000 tons of raw coal output. Three coking coal mines in Ordos have suspended shipments, one of which has stopped production for rectification. The spot price of coking coal has stopped falling and rebounded, and the possibility of a third price cut in the short term is low [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The October sugar delivery volume on the Intercontinental Exchange was 260,750 tons. Brazilian spot sugar prices declined in the first half of September. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of imported processed sugar quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on September 17. The global sugar market is expected to shift from a shortage of - 4.4 million tons in 2024/25 to a surplus of + 0.7 million tons in 2025/26, with production increasing from 189.4 million tons to 196.8 million tons and consumption increasing by 2.4 million tons [5]. Rubber - Nissan's plan to cut production and close design studios affected the market. The Shanghai Rubber futures fell on September 17. As of September 14, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The保税 area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [6][7]. Soybean Meal - On September 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The US soybean crop rating decreased to 63%. Brazil's 2025 soybean production forecast remained at 170.3 million tons. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3002 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is rising [8]. Live Hogs - On September 17, the LH2511 contract closed at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. In September, the supply of suitable - weight pigs increased, and the consumption demand recovered slowly, resulting in a weak and volatile futures price [9]. Palm Oil - On September 17, the palm oil futures failed to continue rising and closed lower. From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05%, and exports decreased by 0.1% [9]. Shanghai Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but there is a risk of "buy on rumor, sell on news". Overseas copper mines have occasional disruptions, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee is low. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has widened, and the social inventory accumulation is limited [10]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 144 lots in inventory. The price of Xinjiang machine - picked cottonseed was 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [10]. Iron Ore - On September 17, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 804.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the iron water production returned to a high level. However, steel mills in Tangshan were required to reduce emissions, so the iron ore price was volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - On September 17, the asphalt 2511 contract closed up 0.58% at 3445 yuan. The asphalt supply remained low, the inventory decreased slightly, the shipment volume declined, and the demand was weak, so the price was volatile [11]. Logs - On September 17, the log futures opened at 806.5, closed at 809, and decreased by 1268 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship was stable, and the market was in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Steel - On September 17, the rb2601 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The steel industry faced high supply and low demand, resulting in high inventory, low prices, and reduced profits [12]. Alumina - On September 17, the ao2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton. The alumina price fell back after rising. The supply was loose, and downstream enterprises were mainly waiting and seeing [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 17, the al2511 contract closed at 20,940 yuan/ton. The market was waiting for the Fed's decision. The domestic "anti - involution" policy provided some support. The supply was normal, the social inventory increased, and the demand was cautious [13].

Group 1 - Coffee futures prices have surged due to concerns over potential La Niña effects leading to prolonged drought in Brazil, threatening crop yields, with Arabica coffee prices reaching $4.21 per pound [1][3] - Since early August, coffee futures prices have increased by approximately 50%, driven by drought in Brazil, tariffs imposed by the U.S. on South American supplies, and declining inventories [1] - Speculative buying has been observed, particularly following the release of Brazil's August export data and the continued decline in certified Arabica coffee inventories [1] Group 2 - Brazil typically accounts for about 30% of U.S. coffee bean imports, and the inventory of Arabica coffee beans in exchange-regulated warehouses has dropped to its lowest level since April 2024, indicating supply tightness [3] - The NOAA has indicated a 71% probability of La Niña occurring between October and December, which could adversely affect Brazil's coffee crop for 2026-2027, as many had hoped this season's crop would help rebuild inventories [3] - Weather forecasting agency Vaisala reported that Brazil's main coffee-producing regions will continue to experience drought, with unfavorable soil moisture and limited rainfall negatively impacting flowering [3]

Group 1 - As of September 15, cup rubber prices are at 51.00 THB/kg, while latex prices remain unchanged at 56.20 THB/kg. The purchasing price for Yunnan rubber is 14,800 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY, and Hainan private rubber is at 16,100 CNY/ton, unchanged. Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard rubber is priced at 1,870 USD/ton, up by 10 USD, and Thai mixed rubber is at 15,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY [1] - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.61%, an increase of 5.69 percentage points month-on-month but a decrease of 7.31 percentage points year-on-year. The full-steel tire sample enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 66.31%, up by 5.57 percentage points month-on-month and 4.23 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days month-on-month and 9.71 days year-on-year. For full-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days month-on-month and a decrease of 4.58 days year-on-year [1] Group 2 - According to QinRex, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber export volume reached 1.05 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 14.4% increase compared to 0.92 million tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year-on-year but decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [2] - The supply side shows a slight decline in overseas raw material prices, with cost support still present. Downstream holiday stocking activities have increased warehouse outflow, leading to expectations of continued inventory reduction for natural rubber [2] - Some full-steel tire companies have raised their pricing policies, resulting in slower sales, while most companies continue previous pricing strategies. Semi-steel tire companies are promoting sales to increase output, and some are intensifying promotions for snow tires. Channel sales are expected to increase due to anticipated price hikes, prompting some distributors to stock up [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment dominates the short - term trend of rubber prices, while supply - demand fundamentals provide support and resistance. The cost support remains strong due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas. The rubber sentiment has subsided, and the decline in crude oil prices has dragged down the rubber sector. Long - term demand requires continuous and effective macro - policy incentives, and export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of Indonesian standard rubber is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of the NR2510 contract is not large. In the long - term, the supply of domestic full - latex is limited, and the RU warehouse receipts are in a seasonal low. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad also affects the rubber market, and there are risks such as US tariff policies and EU anti - dumping investigations [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect rubber prices. Weather in production areas affects cost support, and long - term demand depends on macro - policies. Export growth has risks [1]. - Near - term trading: 1 - 7 months, Indonesian standard rubber imports increased by about 8% year - on - year, and the price difference between NR contracts and other standard products may remain in the short term [3]. - Long - term trading: Domestic production area weather disturbances lead to slow growth of full - latex raw materials. RU warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the focus is on the remaining tapping window this year. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad has both positive and negative impacts, and there are risks [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price range: The reference oscillation range of RU2601 in the next week is 15700 - 16100; that of NR2511 is 12500 - 13000. The trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation [11]. - Strategy suggestions: In the wide - range oscillation, it is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis. For basis, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies, specific operations and entry points are provided [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The monthly price range of rubber RU is 15800 - 16300, and that of 20 - number rubber NR is 12700 - 13200 [13]. - Risk management strategies: Different strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding trading directions, hedging ratios, and entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerned Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive information: Heavy - truck sales continued to grow. In 2025, from January to August, China's heavy - truck cumulative sales increased by about 13% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12.6% respectively, and automobile exports increased by 13.7%. There is a high probability of La Nina phenomenon in the fourth quarter, which may affect Southeast Asian production areas [14]. - Negative information: Indonesian standard rubber exports increased. Malaysia's rubber subsidies stabilized supply. Global natural rubber production and consumption had different trends in July. In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased [15]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Tropical disturbances are generated in the South China Sea, and Typhoon "Mina" may affect China's Taiwan to Guangdong area. Pay attention to the rainfall in Thailand in September. This week is a key period for central banks around the world to announce policy interest rates, especially the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18 [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The rubber price fluctuated last week, and the price center of the RU01 contract remained around 15900, and that of the NR11 contract was around 12700. Spot prices fell, and the basis of Thai standard, Indonesian standard, and NR was at a seasonal high. The RU month - spread changed little, and the NR term structure changed significantly [18][22][26]. - Foreign market: The foreign market trend was similar to the domestic one, and the exchange rate affected the pricing of foreign rubber. The term structure of Japanese RSS3 changed, and Singapore TRES20 maintained a contango structure [29][31]. - Virtual - to - physical ratio and sentiment indicators: The bullish sentiment of rubber fluctuated. The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was moderate, and the NR ratio was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [33]. - Internal - external price difference tracking: The internal - external price differences of RU and NR were differentiated. The price difference between RU and Japanese RSS3 was high but narrowed. The supply of NR and Singapore 20 - number rubber was expected to be loose, and the exchange rate affected the price difference [36]. - Variety price difference analysis: The deep - shallow price difference of dry rubber continued to expand. The price difference between natural and synthetic rubber increased [40][47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw material cost: Domestic raw material prices rose and fell. In Hainan, glue prices decreased slightly, and cup - glue prices increased slightly. In Yunnan, glue prices remained high. In Thailand, the water - cup price difference decreased [50]. - Processing profit: The delivery profit of domestic full - latex in Yunnan was low, and the profit of TSR9710 was good. The processing profit of imported smoked sheets increased slightly, while the profits of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber were negative [56][58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main - producing country output: Thailand's output decreased in July. Indonesia's output may decrease slightly in August. Malaysia's output decreased year - on - year, and Vietnam's output is expected to increase. India's output was at a low level [60]. - Import situation: In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased. From Thailand, the import of Thai standard increased, and Thai mixed decreased. Indonesian imports increased in July, and exports may remain growing in August [62]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Main - producing country total demand: In July, China's natural rubber consumption was stable year - on - year. The demand in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased, while that in Vietnam and India increased. China's rubber demand and exports are expected to remain strong, but international trade situations need attention [70]. - Tire production and sales: The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased, and the inventory decreased slowly. Tire exports increased, but the average export price decreased. The downstream inventory is high, and short - term production and sales are stable, but long - term risks exist [73]. - Replacement demand: China's logistics industry is stable, and the replacement demand is expected to be stable. However, long - term fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [78]. - Supporting demand: Last week, domestic passenger car wholesale sales decreased. China's heavy - truck sales were strong in the first half of the year, and the supporting demand is expected to be resilient. Automobile exports increased significantly in August [80]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures inventory: RU warehouse receipts decreased rapidly, and NR warehouse receipts increased steadily [84]. - Social inventory: The domestic dry - rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The light - colored rubber inventory continued to decrease, and the dark - colored rubber inventory also decreased slightly. The inventory in Yunnan's non - standard rubber increased [87].