Group 1: Core Insights - The new La Niña phenomenon is forming, marking the fifth occurrence in six years, which is expected to disrupt global weather systems and pose significant risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Historical data indicates that global economic losses from La Niña events have ranged from $258 billion to $329 billion, highlighting the increasing impact of extreme weather on economic losses and decision-making in insurance, agriculture, and energy sectors [1] - The current La Niña is predicted to have a weaker intensity but is expected to last for several months, adding uncertainty to commodity price trends [1] Group 2: Regional Impacts - In Southeast Asia, recent floods in Vietnam and Thailand have resulted in over 500 deaths and economic losses exceeding $16 billion, with La Niña contributing to extreme rainfall patterns [2] - La Niña is associated with colder winters in North America and East Asia, which may increase heating fuel demand, particularly in regions like the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes [4] - Brazil, as the world's largest soybean exporter, is cautious about potential rainfall reductions in its southern planting areas due to La Niña, while China may face threats to winter wheat production from below-average temperatures [5] Group 3: Agricultural Market Uncertainty - The global agricultural market is on high alert, as La Niña is typically linked to decreased yields of corn, rice, and wheat [3] - In Southeast Asia, strong rainfall may disrupt palm oil harvesting and transportation, although increased moisture could benefit crop recovery in the following months [5] Group 4: Climate Change Context - The occurrence of five La Niña events in six years reflects a broader trend over the past 25 years, where La Niña has become more prevalent than El Niño, with ongoing research into the influence of climate change on this cycle [6] - Experts suggest that while La Niña is a natural phenomenon, its effects are being altered and amplified by global warming, leading to more extreme weather events [6] - The current La Niña is expected to peak in the coming weeks, but its impact on global weather patterns will likely persist for several months [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-26 市场担忧供应，豆粕盘面近月领涨 油脂：昨日震荡偏强，关注上方技术阻力 蛋白粕：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 玉米/淀粉：缺乏驱动，市场僵持 生猪：年底供需博弈，猪价震荡 天然橡胶：胶价继续向上突破，短期或维持偏强 合成橡胶：消息面刺激有限，盘面高位回落 棉花：政策预期部分落地，棉价延续攀升 白糖：阶段性触底后，糖价反弹 纸浆：持续横盘震荡，现货维持偏弱 双胶纸：纸企相继发布涨价函，双胶底部存支撑 原木：底部存在支撑，原木低位区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 风险因素：进口政策，南美天气，贸易战，宏观。 农业团队 【异动品种】 蛋白粕观点：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 逻辑：国际方面，海外圣诞节，美豆休市。USDA数据显示，美豆11月压榨 量环比走低，对华出口增长缓慢。巴西大豆播种近尾声，阿根廷大豆播种 过半。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至12月17日，阿根廷 2025/26年度大豆播种完成67.3%，高于一周前的58.6%。南美大豆产量前 景乐观，未来15天降水略多，温度略低。 ...

转自：期货日报 2025年豆系市场走势主要受国内大豆到港节奏、美豆产区天气及出口预期变化等因素影响。当前，美豆 因出口担忧加剧，加之南美丰产预期强化，上行动能已显不足。在此背景下，国内豆粕的进口成本支撑 随之弱化，同时供应压力依然存在，预计价格将延续弱势运行态势。 国际大豆供应宽松 国际大豆市场供应延续宽松格局。截至12月末，美豆收割工作基本完成，大豆上市压力持续释放，美豆 出口需求支撑不足。巴西大豆播种进度超九成，尽管前期部分产区遭遇干旱，但大豆总体长势良好，丰 产压力犹存。阿根廷大豆播种进度加快，虽然新作种植面积略有下调，但整体供应充足，全球大豆丰产 格局延续。 市场关注点逐步转向南美天气。世界气象组织认为，未来三个月发生弱拉尼娜现象的概率为55%。其 中，巴西南部产区可能面临干旱威胁，阿根廷大豆整个关键生长期则与拉尼娜活跃期重合，减产风险相 对较大。尽管弱拉尼娜现象本身难以扭转全球大豆供过于求的格局，但这将成为影响产量预期和市场情 绪的关键因素。 中美贸易关系进入新阶段。后续中国采购美豆的节奏与规模，将成为影响美豆出口及贸易流向的重要因 素。 2025年中国大豆进口量预计突破 1.1亿吨，创历史新高，进 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the shipping and palm oil industries, focusing on market dynamics, supply chain challenges, and future projections for 2026. Shipping Industry Insights Market Performance - The shipping market in 2025 is expected to experience significant weakness, with freight rates declining compared to 2024. Despite a roundabout route via the Cape of Good Hope, the supply-demand fundamentals remain loose, leading to a soft market overall [2][4]. Key Influencing Factors - Major factors affecting the shipping market include the restructuring of three major alliances, the impact of tariff trade wars, and global economic pressures that lead shippers to prefer lower-cost transport services [3][9]. Alliance Adjustments - The MSC, Premier, and Ocean alliances dominate the Northwest European and Mediterranean routes. Adjustments in fleet deployment, such as MSC reallocating vessels to more profitable regions, have significantly impacted supply-side variables [5][6]. Future Capacity Projections - By 2026, the delivery of new 24,000 TEU Panama-type vessels is not expected to significantly increase capacity on key routes, as existing services already meet demand [6][14]. Strategies for Suez Canal Operations - Shipping companies are employing various strategies to adapt to the reopening of the Suez Canal, including extending routes and entering emerging markets to absorb excess capacity [7][8]. Demand Trends - The demand outlook for trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes is mixed, with a projected decline in U.S. imports due to internal economic pressures rather than trade disputes. Conversely, European demand for Chinese goods is expected to remain strong, leading to record export volumes [9][10][11]. Palm Oil Industry Insights Market Dynamics - The palm oil market is influenced by production expectations in Malaysia and Indonesia, with potential declines in output due to aging plantations and adverse weather conditions [18][22]. Price Projections - Price ranges for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in 2026 are projected to be between 8,000-10,500 CNY/ton for palm oil, 7,500-9,000 CNY/ton for soybean oil, and 8,000-10,300 CNY/ton for rapeseed oil. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended due to current market sentiment [35]. Supply Challenges - Malaysia's palm oil production faces challenges from aging trees and low replanting rates, with the actual replanting rate significantly below recommended levels. This is expected to hinder production growth in 2026 [20][22]. Global Biodiesel Market - The global biodiesel market has seen a decline in 2025, with U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil's policy changes being focal points. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. biodiesel policies is expected to impact market sentiment and pricing [25][26]. Additional Insights Economic Factors - The economic conditions in Europe and the U.S. are expected to influence global trade and shipping, with Europe still recovering from the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. facing internal economic pressures affecting import levels [12][13]. Long-term Trends - The shipping industry is anticipated to remain stable with no significant increase in the number of routes, while the palm oil market may see a tightening supply situation due to various production challenges [14][24]. Regulatory Impacts - The UDR regulations in Europe will pose compliance challenges for South American exports, particularly for palm oil and soybeans, affecting trade dynamics [53][54]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the shipping and palm oil industries as they prepare for the upcoming year.

【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 2025 年 12 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4104 | -13（-0.32%） | 4118 +14（+0.34%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2745 | +5（+0.18%） | 2756 +14（+0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063 | -1.0（-0.09%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 304 | +2.3（+0.76%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 较昨持平至+40； 3040～3120， | 现货基差M2605+360， | 持平； 2026年1-2月或2-3月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 持平； ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-24 马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 油脂：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 蛋白粕：美豆交投清淡，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销清淡，价格窄幅震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价宽幅震荡 天然橡胶：维持窄幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面走势延续偏强 棉花：仓单低叠加政策预期，棉价延续走强 白糖：糖价震荡反弹，压力仍存 纸浆：近期高位区间波动，期货走势资金主导 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 逻辑：因原油上涨、美元走弱及对农产品的买盘，周一美豆类上涨，昨日 国内油脂表现分化，棕油相对偏强。从宏观环境看，因日本官员暗示已准 备必要时干预市场，周一日元兑美元走强；因对地缘局势紧张冲击供应的 担忧，周一原油价格上涨。从产业端看，南美豆丰产预期持续，巴西大豆 种植临近尾声，阿根廷大豆种植正常推进。CONAB数据显示，截至12月 20日巴西大豆种植进度为97.6%，去年同期97.8%，五年均值94.9%。而美 豆 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory consumption, with supply pressures easing due to the seasonal cessation of rubber tapping in major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan [1][2] - As of December 2025, the two main production areas for natural rubber in China, Yunnan and Hainan, have entered the cessation phase, leading to a significant reduction in raw material output and a reliance on inventory for market circulation [1] - The domestic automotive market shows positive trends, with production and sales of vehicles in November 2025 reaching 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.1% and 3.2% [2] Group 2 - The tire market in China is characterized by stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, and internal-external coordination, with the production of rubber tire outer casings showing a slight year-on-year decline of 2.6% in November 2025 [3] - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area reached 515,200 tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1,630 tons, indicating a continuous rise in inventory for eight consecutive weeks [3] - The heavy truck market, a key indicator of natural rubber demand, has shown a strong recovery, with November 2025 sales reaching approximately 100,000 units, a 46% increase compared to the same month last year [2]

图为马来西亚棕榈油月度产量 图 为马来西亚棕榈油月度库存 东南亚主产区强降雨影响较为有限 在11月下旬至12月上旬，棕榈油价格出现一波反弹行情，因为11月中旬开始东南亚地区受拉尼娜现象影响出现持续强 降雨并局部爆发洪水。最初强降雨主要出现在中南半岛和菲律宾，随后逐渐南移，11月下旬开始马来半岛和苏门答腊 岛北部降雨量增加并影响到部分油棕树种植园林，从而增强市场看涨预期。 转自：期货日报 自10月上旬见顶回落以来，棕榈油本轮震荡下跌趋势已经持续超过两个月。其间有两波阶段性的反弹，但未能扭转总 体的下跌趋势。 马来西亚季节性减产期晚于往年 棕榈油产量存在明显的季节性特征，主要跟东南亚主产区的旱季和雨季有关。旱季开工率高，产量也高；雨季开工率 低，产量也低。一般来说，每年的3、4月随着旱季的开始，产量逐渐增加，直至8—9月旱季结束，然后雨季开始，产 量逐渐减少，直至次年的2月雨季结束。 今年旱季较往年有所延长，到10月马来西亚棕榈油仍然保持增产态势。马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）月报显示，10月 马来西亚棕榈油产量为204万吨，环比增加11%，同比增加14%；11月马来西亚棕榈油产量才开始回落至193.5万吨， 环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026, known as the "Red Horse Year," is expected to be significant due to historical patterns of extreme weather associated with this year in the Chinese calendar, particularly concerning flooding risks [1][3][5]. Climate Predictions - Historical records indicate that previous "Bingwu" years, such as 1966 and 1906, experienced severe flooding, suggesting a correlation between this year's characteristics and potential climate anomalies [3][7]. - The period from 2024 to 2026 is predicted to be influenced by La Niña and global warming, which may lead to increased extreme weather events [3][9]. Weather Patterns - The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that global average temperatures may reach record highs from 2025 to 2029, with a high probability of 2026 breaking previous temperature records [9]. - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to disrupt global atmospheric circulation, potentially leading to abnormal weather patterns in China, characterized by hot summers and increased rainfall during the rainy season [9][10]. Regional Impacts - Specific predictions for 2026 include intense convective weather in southern China from April to June, with risks of heavy rainfall and urban flooding, particularly in the Yangtze River basin [9][10]. - Northern regions may experience drought conditions during the summer, leading to a "flood in the south and drought in the north" scenario, which aligns with historical observations [10]. Agricultural Considerations - Historical agricultural advice suggests planting on higher ground to mitigate flooding risks, which remains relevant today [11][13]. - Adjusting crop types to those that are flood-resistant or have growth cycles that avoid peak flooding periods is recommended as a proactive strategy [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. The price of US soybeans is still restricted by the global supply, while Brazil's soybean production is at a record - high level and Argentina's supply is sufficient. The implementation of the soybean purchase agreement will be a key factor affecting US soybean exports and price structure. The La Niña phenomenon may affect South American yields, and weather changes need to be monitored [2][77]. - China's soybean imports are expected to reach a new high in 2026, with a "low - first - then - high" supply rhythm. The soybean meal market is expected to continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the upward price space is limited [2][77]. - The pig production capacity is slowly being reduced. In the first half of 2026, the supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The speed of production capacity reduction will be the key to the pig price trend in the second half of the year [2][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **2025 Bean Market**: The 2025 bean market was mainly affected by trade relations, domestic soybean arrival rhythm, US soybean producing area weather and export expectations. The prices of domestic and foreign markets showed significant differentiation in March, and the price of US soybeans rebounded at the end of October, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [4]. - **Q1**: The domestic and foreign markets showed an initial differentiation, with the domestic market being stronger. The USDA report was bullish at the beginning of the year, and the price of US soybeans rebounded. The domestic soybean meal price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. The domestic and foreign markets began to diverge at the end of March [6]. - **Q2**: The supply pressure became prominent, and the price was under pressure. The domestic supply pressure increased significantly after May, and the soybean meal price lacked upward momentum. The US soybean market was supported by weather speculation and other factors [6]. - **Q3**: The US soybeans fluctuated in a range, and the domestic market was driven by costs. The price of US soybeans fell below 1000 cents in July and rebounded in August. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly boosted by import costs [6]. - **Q4**: Driven by trade sentiment, the price bottomed out and rebounded. The improvement of Sino - US relations significantly boosted the export expectations of US soybeans, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [7]. - **2025 Pig Market**: The 2025 pig market was affected by factors such as over - capacity, policy expectations, second - fattening sentiment and slaughter rhythm, showing a pattern of fluctuating downward and weak rebound [8][10]. - **Q1**: The demand was strong first and then weak, and the pig price fluctuated weakly. The pig price was relatively strong before the Spring Festival and then fell. The second - fattening and barring sentiment led to a rebound in the pig price in late February [11]. - **Q2**: The policy guidance began to appear, and the price first rose and then fell. The pig price rebounded in April and then fell in May. The second - fattening replenishment enthusiasm increased in June, and the pig price stopped falling and stabilized [11]. - **Q3**: The supply - demand imbalance intensified, and the spot and futures markets diverged. The pig price soared in July due to supply reduction and policy factors, and then fluctuated and fell in August. The futures market moved down in September [12]. - **Q4**: After the National Day, the demand entered the off - season, and the pig price fell sharply and then rebounded slightly. The futures market was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [12]. 2. International Soybean Market Supply Analysis - **USDA Report**: The global soybean supply continues to be in a loose pattern. In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 423 million tons, with the ending inventory increasing by 4 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - **US**: The 2025/26 US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is 6.74%, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been tightening in recent years. The short - term price has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited by the global supply [17][18]. - **South America**: The production data of South American soybeans remains unchanged in December. Brazil's production is expected to be 175 million tons, and Argentina's is 48.5 million tons. The overall supply remains loose, but South American weather is still a key concern [19]. - **Brazil**: The soybean sowing is coming to an end, and the production is expected to reach a record high. Multiple institutions predict that the 2025/26 production will be between 175 - 178 million tons. In 2025, the export volume reached a record high, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2026. The La Niña phenomenon may pose a threat to the yield [20][21]. - **Argentina**: The sowing progress is accelerating. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons. The export tax has been reduced, and the export is expected to reach a six - year high [23][24]. - **US**: The soybean harvest is basically over, and the production is at a historical high. The weekly export volume has decreased month - on - month, but the cumulative year - on - year increase has continued to expand. The short - term export demand is still strong. The medium - and long - term export situation needs to pay attention to the impact of trade relations on trade flows. The soybean crushing volume in October set a new record, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term [27][28]. - **Trade Relations**: The Sino - US trade relations have entered a new stage of "transaction - based management". The stable trade of soybeans has become the balance of bilateral relations, but the structural contradictions have not been resolved. In 2026, trade relations are no longer the main trading line, but short - term disturbances still exist [31][34]. - **La Niña Disturbance**: The probability of a weak La Niña phenomenon in the next three months is 55%. The main impact is on South America, with the risk of reduced production in Argentina being the greatest. The actual weather conditions in South America and the intensity and duration of La Niña are the focus of the market [35][36]. 3. Domestic Soybean Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, China's soybean imports are expected to exceed 110 million tons for the first time, showing a "stable - first - then - high" pattern. In 2026, imports are expected to continue to grow, with a "low - first - then - high" rhythm, and the import value growth rate may continue to be lower than the import volume growth rate. The import scale of US soybeans depends on Sino - US trade relations [40][42]. - **Soybean Crushing**: In 2025, the national soybean crushing volume reached a historical high, showing a "low - first - then - high" pattern. The crushing profit showed a "high - first - then - low" and fluctuating downward trend. In 2026, the crushing industry is expected to continue to operate at a high level, but the growth rate will slow down, with a "low - first - then - high" seasonal rhythm [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: In 2025, the soybean meal inventory showed a "tight - first - then - loose" pattern. In 2026, if the arrival is uniform, the soybean meal supply will be slightly looser than in 2025. The inventory may bottom out in March - April and then gradually recover [46]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated greatly. The overall demand for the breeding industry is stable, and the proportion of soybean meal added in feed continues to decline. In 2026, the demand for soybean meal will show the characteristics of "stable total demand and decreasing addition ratio", and the demand growth rate is expected to be lower than the feed production growth rate [48][52]. 4. Pig Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: - **Price Decline**: Since 2025, the domestic pig price has been in a downward trend, and the prices of binary sows and piglets have also declined to varying degrees [56]. - **Capacity Regulation**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has strengthened the regulation of pig production capacity, and listed companies in the pig - breeding industry have actively responded. As of October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows has declined to 39.9 million, and the production capacity reduction has accelerated [57][60]. - **Low Import Willingness**: The domestic pork supply is sufficient, and the import willingness of downstream purchasers and importers is weak. The pork import volume in October 2025 reached the lowest level of the year [66]. - **Profit Loss**: In 2025, the pig - breeding profit changed from profit to loss. In the first half of 2026, the pig supply is expected to be high, and the profit may continue to be under pressure. If the production capacity is significantly reduced in the second half of the year, the price and profit may recover [68]. - **Weakening of Second - Fattening Impact**: In the second half of 2025, policies restricted second - fattening, and leading enterprises responded actively. The influence of second - fattening on pig prices has weakened significantly, and the pig price trend is expected to be smoother in 2026 [69][72]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the pig demand showed typical seasonal characteristics. In the second half of the year, the terminal consumption recovered strongly, but the upward space of pig prices was restricted by the supply. In 2026, the pig market will continue the complex supply - demand game, and the short - term price may face a callback risk, while the medium - and long - term consumption growth space is limited [74][75]. 5. Summary and Outlook - **Soybean Meal**: With a loose global supply and accumulating domestic inventory, the overall upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to marginal variables such as South American weather speculation and the implementation of the Sino - US procurement agreement [77][78]. - **Pigs**: In the first half of the year, the supply pressure remains high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by the seasonal consumption recovery, and the process of production capacity reduction and the effect of policy guidance should be closely monitored [78].