2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 20 日，港股缺乏向上推动力。除美国 12 月减息的不确定性外，中日关系紧张亦增加市场风险情绪，加上近期迎来 多达 28 只股份将陆续解禁，为港股带来调整压力。周四恒生指数最终收报 25,835 点，微涨 4 点（0.02%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 32 点（0.6%），收报 5,574 点；全天大市成交额稍稍扩大至 2,451 亿元。港股通净流入增长至接近 160 亿元，是 近一个月以来单日净流入金额最高。盘面上，市场传闻政府将推出新一轮房地产刺激措施，消息导致内房股周四造好， 碧桂园（2007 HK）涨 3.1%；万科（2202 HK）涨 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）涨 2.5%。11 月 19 日宁德时代（3750 HK）有 7,000 多万股 H 股解禁，周四股价下挫 5.7%。除了宁德时代，年底前还有曹操出行（2643 HK）、英诺赛科（2577 HK） 和药捷安康（2617 HK）等较大规模股份解禁。投资者警惕基金在假期前减持股份。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, leading to steady price increases, with optimistic market sentiment supporting further price growth [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global rubber production is expected to decrease in December due to seasonal factors, increasing reliance on imports in China [2]. - Weather conditions, including the La Niña phenomenon, are impacting rubber harvesting negatively, contributing to lower supply and profits for domestic producers [2]. Price Trends - International rubber prices are on the rise, with Thai rubber water priced at 56.6 THB/kg and cup rubber at 52.1 THB/kg, both near five-year highs [3]. - Domestic prices in Yunnan are also increasing, with rubber water at 14,100 CNY/ton and rubber blocks at 14,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar upward trend [3]. Consumption and Market Sentiment - The automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies boosting sales and exports, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [4]. - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio (PCR) to 46%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a bullish outlook on rubber prices [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised against single-direction put options due to low success rates and high risks [7]. - Suggested strategies include covered call writing for steady income, long positions with protective puts for risk management, and bull spreads to control costs while maintaining a bullish stance [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently in a phase of profit recovery after a decline from the peak in 2021, similar to the cycle observed from 2012 to 2015 [1][3] - Raw material prices are stable, with gross margins and price spreads at historical lows, but the pressure from oversupply is easing, and demand from mid and downstream sectors is steadily growing [1][3] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to expand rapidly from 2022 to 2024, but a significant decline is anticipated in 2025, indicating a peak in capacity growth [1][3] Market Dynamics - The refrigerant market is entering a long-term upward cycle starting from the end of 2023, with prices for major varieties expected to continue rising, such as the price of 2,332 reaching 63,000 yuan, three times higher than the same period last year [1][5] - Major refrigerant companies have reported significant profit increases, with Yonghe's profit growth reaching 450% in the first three quarters [1][5] - The refrigerant quota policy is expected to remain stable, transitioning from annual to quarterly pricing, which will facilitate more frequent performance realization [1][5] Cooling Liquid Market - The cooling liquid market is categorized into three types: water-based, oil-based, and fluorinated liquids, with fluorinated liquids showing promising applications in immersion cooling [1][6] - Companies like Juhua and Yonghe have already established a good layout in fluorinated liquids, positioning them for better growth as demand for liquid cooling increases [1][6] Price Trends and Expectations - Refrigerant prices are likely to see a slight increase starting in November due to year-end rigid demand and the exhaustion of annual quotas [1][7] - The natural gas market is under pressure due to the predicted La Niña phenomenon and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a projected increase in consumption as winter approaches [2][8] Investment Opportunities - The chemical industry is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 2.2, indicating potential for upward movement [3][9] - Investment opportunities are identified in the refrigerant, natural gas, and phosphate industry chains, particularly influenced by the demand for electric vehicle batteries [3][9]

11月14日，A股市场全天震荡调整，沪指跌近1%，创业板指跌近3%。板块上，燃气板块逆势走强，胜 利股份4连板，国新能源、长春燃气涨停，凯添燃气涨超6%，天壕能源、洪通燃气、大众公用涨超 5%，东方环宇、成都燃气、升达林业等多股跟涨。 消息面上，据央视报道，即日起至11月17日，下半年首场寒潮来袭，局地降温将超12℃。降温后，气温 将大范围创今年下半年来新低，17日最高气温0℃线将南压到陕西北部、山西北部、河北北部、辽宁北 部一带，18日早晨最低温度0℃线将南压至苏皖南部和鄂北部一带，西北地区、内蒙古、东北地区多地 最低气温将低于-10℃。 国金证券近期研报称，拉尼娜现象发生概率提升，或导致冬季北半球气温骤降，当前欧洲天然气库存中 位水平，若出现冷冬或推升亚欧天然气价格，建议关注上游天然气生产相关标的。长期来看，随着全球 LNG市场供需逐步趋于宽松，亚洲、欧洲气价中枢有望下行，助力下游天然气销售业务价差修复，同 时降低工业用户天然气用能成本，推动天然气在工业用能中的渗透率提升，建议关注中下游天然气销售 相关标的。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

Coal Industry - The price of thermal coal has risen significantly, surpassing 800 yuan per ton, marking a new high for the year as of November 13 [1][3] - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with key listed coal companies reporting a more than 20% increase in profits in Q3 compared to the previous quarter [3][4] - Factors contributing to the rise in coal prices include extreme weather conditions, with northern regions experiencing significant temperature drops, while southern regions faced higher than average temperatures [3][4] - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a dual attribute of dividends and cyclical characteristics, making it a favored asset for market funds [3] Ice and Snow Tourism Industry - The ice and snow tourism sector has seen a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by events such as the "Qixing Mountain·Camel Cup" wilderness survival challenge [5][6] - The ice and snow industry in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with continuous growth expected due to upcoming major winter sports events [7] - The tourism industry is currently benefiting from a combination of policy incentives and demand release, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in online travel agencies (OTA), comprehensive cultural tourism service providers, and ice and snow tourism leaders [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.541 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.03%, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 147 million yuan, a significant increase of 122.98% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's installed capacity reached 6.8748 million kilowatts by the end of Q2 2025, an increase of 8.12% year-on-year, contributing to a Q3 wind power generation of 2.410 billion kWh, up 6.98% year-on-year [1]. - Solar power generation in Q3 reached 107 million kWh, a remarkable increase of 104.79% year-on-year, with total power generation for the first three quarters amounting to 10.768 billion kWh, up 9.47% year-on-year [1]. - Despite stable growth in electricity generation, the company's gas sales volume in Q3 was 944 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.94% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a downward trend since the end of last year [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Control and Profitability - The company maintained strict control over cost and expense spending, resulting in a Q3 gross profit of 425 million yuan, down 7.77% year-on-year, while financial expenses decreased by 15.70% to 255 million yuan [2]. - Investment income rose to 57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.13%, which, along with cost reductions, alleviated profit pressure, leading to a net profit of 147 million yuan for Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.97% [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to bring a colder winter, which may increase heating demand and gas consumption, potentially benefiting the company's gas sales and helping the new Tangshan LNG project to recover from losses [2]. - The colder winter is also anticipated to positively impact wind power generation, suggesting a favorable outlook for the company's overall performance in the coming months [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - Based on the latest financial data, the company's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.038 billion yuan, 2.248 billion yuan, and 2.480 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan, and H-share PE ratios of 8.44x, 7.65x, and 6.94x respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company has experienced a rebound in sales volume for the first time this year, with a quarterly performance showing signs of recovery [2][6]. - The company's installed capacity has expanded, leading to a 9.2% year-on-year increase in controlled power generation, reaching 2.518 billion kWh in the third quarter [6]. - Despite a 3.03% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 3.541 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 122.97% to 147 million yuan due to cost control and increased investment income [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Volume - The company reported a total sales volume of 944 million cubic meters in the third quarter, marking a 0.94% year-on-year increase, reversing the downward trend observed since the end of last year [6]. - The wholesale gas volume increased by 27.66% to 334 million cubic meters, while retail gas volume decreased by 21.99% to 308 million cubic meters [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company effectively controlled costs, resulting in a gross profit of 425 million yuan, a decline of 7.77% year-on-year, while financial expenses decreased by 15.70% to 255 million yuan [6]. - Investment income rose by 130.13% to 57 million yuan, contributing to the significant increase in net profit [6]. Future Outlook - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to lead to a colder winter, which may increase heating demand and positively impact gas sales and wind power generation [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, expecting profits of 2.038 billion yuan, 2.248 billion yuan, and 2.480 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan [6].

Summary of Palm Oil Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Palm Oil - **Key Countries**: Indonesia, Malaysia Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production Forecast**: JAPKI predicts a 10% increase in Indonesia's palm oil production by 2025, but actual production may decrease by 2%-3% due to government land reclamation of illegally occupied areas, affecting 4.5 million hectares, or 1/6 of total planting area [1][2][7] 2. **Malaysia's Market Analysis**: Malaysia's production is only 1/5 of Indonesia's, limited by labor shortages and rising fertilizer costs. Monthly inventory fluctuates around 500,000 tons, insufficient to impact the market significantly [1][3][7] 3. **Biodiesel Policy Driving Demand**: Indonesia's B40 and B50 biodiesel initiatives are expected to significantly boost palm oil demand. Rising soybean oil prices in the US and Argentina are leading countries like India and China to switch to palm oil, resulting in a slight increase in recent inventories [1][4][7] 4. **Aging Palm Trees Increasing Supply Pressure**: Malaysia faces challenges with aging palm trees, which require frequent replacement to maintain stable supply. The slow replacement rate exacerbates supply issues [1][6][7] 5. **Global Biodiesel Development Trends**: While US biodiesel policies are cooling, there remains potential for demand growth. China is actively developing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), with a target to increase SAF blending to 5% within three years, supporting oil prices [1][12][14] Additional Important Insights 1. **Supply Changes in Indonesia and Malaysia**: Indonesia's palm oil production is crucial, with official figures indicating an annual output of 18-20 million tons. However, the transparency of these figures is low, and the government's land reclamation efforts are expected to significantly impact production [2][8] 2. **B50 Policy Status**: The B50 policy in Indonesia has completed testing but may face delays due to funding and technical issues. The new president is optimistic about advancing this policy [9][10] 3. **US Biodiesel Policy Impact**: Recent cooling in US biodiesel policies has created uncertainty, but demand is still expected to grow, with a projected 23% increase in soybean oil usage for biodiesel this summer [11] 4. **China's SAF Developments**: China is increasing its SAF production capacity, which will require more raw materials, thereby supporting overall oil prices [12][17] 5. **Malaysia's Export Adjustments**: Malaysia is reducing palm oil exports to meet domestic aviation fuel needs, tightening supply further [13][27] 6. **Global Biodiesel Trends**: Countries worldwide are pushing biodiesel projects, which will support palm oil demand. Chinese companies are pre-purchasing supplies to mitigate future shortages [27] Conclusion - The palm oil market is expected to tighten by 2025 due to supply constraints in Indonesia and Malaysia, while demand remains strong driven by biodiesel policies. Investment opportunities exist, but close monitoring of policy changes and execution is essential [7][22]

Inflation Data - October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of -0.1% and prior forecasts of 0.1%[1] - October PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3% in the previous month, also above market expectations of -2.3%[7] Price Movements - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting CPI by approximately -0.54 percentage points[3] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with service prices increasing by 0.8%[3] Sector Analysis - Significant price increases were observed in gold jewelry, with prices rising by 50.3% for gold and 46.1% for platinum, driven by sustained demand and new tax policies[4] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing, with the production index at 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a shift in asset performance, with a transition from technology growth stocks to low-volatility dividend stocks as risk appetite declines[1] - Bond yields are anticipated to decrease in Q4 due to weakening fundamentals and potential monetary easing as risk preferences shift[1]